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So that last sentence suggests that the NR pol that took a direct hit was accidental
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Dec 11, 2022 23:31
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December 9-11 round-up Hannibal's got the Twitter side broadly covered  Hannibal Rex posted:A few recent posts that I haven't seen in this thread. Other summaries: https://zona.media/chronicle/289 https://zona.media/chronicle/290 https://zona.media/chronicle/291 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-9-10 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-9-10 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10 FT has a fresh piece from Bakhmut, their crew having visited it on December 5. https://www.ft.com/content/dcdd09bf-440a-4648-9664-6084b11dddd4 Ukrainian state energy company said on Friday that every single thermal- and hydro- energy plant is partially damaged, which, combined with ZNPP not producing power for Ukraine, means that several oblast's are running rolling blackouts basically - Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Odessa (Odessa grid failed a day later anyhow https://t.me/dtek_ua/66). Situation in Kyiv is "nontrivial" as well. https://censor.net/ru/news/3385939/...taya_situatsiya Germany has announced transfer of RCH 155 howitzers to Ukraine, which are apparently too new for having a Wikipedia page on them. https://twitter.com/GermanyinUA/status/1601166667215560704 A slightly older story about life under Russian occupation in a village in Mykolaiv oblast'. https://bylinetimes.com/2022/11/23/how-russians-tormented-one-occupied-ukrainian-village/ Putin tried to threaten that Russia would cut oil production, in response to the oil cap sanctions (as prices otherwise are coping with it https://www.ft.com/content/202d0463-184c-4b14-8eb9-6fc80f147b16), but it looks like this is a policy area where he's up to speed regarding what's practical. https://www.ft.com/content/6b9ee501-ce75-4f2a-adeb-c30ccf0093e3 Stoltenberg doing a Clancychat. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/world/europe/russia-ukraine-nato-stoltenberg.html Modi, on the other hand, dislikes Clancychat enough to be no longer friends with Putin. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/modi-to-skip-annual-summit-with-putin-over-ukraine-nuke-threats Biden administration is saying that Russia and Iran are working double-time on a defence partnership. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/world/europe/russia-iran-military.html Neat, in my opinion, summary of Putin's recent public voyage. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/10/world/europe/putin-ukraine-nuclear.html Guy legally connected to the Kerch bridge bomb truck voluntarily went to cops to help them out in any way he can, on the day of the blast. Apparently, he got jailed a week later, and has been behind bars since then. https://meduza.io/feature/2022/12/1...posadili-v-sizo Nobel Peace Prize delivered to joint Belarus-Russian-Ukrainian activist group. https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008681811/nobel-peace-prize-human-rights.html Some war-related unrest is rearing its head in Moldova, as they're affected by supply disruptions of Russian gas and Ukrainian electricity both. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/11/world/europe/moldova-russian-ukraine-war.html Big FT piece on Ukrainian refugee flows in Europe. https://www.ft.com/content/cf00788c-2799-4d4e-9158-666d1a31ca26 Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol' is claiming strikes on the city. https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/1016 Looks like there's a request from Ukraine for the US to provide cluster munitions, which so far seems to be ignored by Biden's administration, without an outright refusal. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/biden-administration-ukraine-cluster-munitions-00073316 Deadlock over 18bn of EU assistance to Ukraine has been resolved. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/10/council-adopts-18-billion-assistance-to-ukraine/ An interview with Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, on Griner's hostage exchange. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/11/politics/griner-whelan-american-detainees-carstens-cnntv/index.html
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Dec 11, 2022 23:49
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WarpedLichen posted:I saw a video about a Ukrainian field hospital the other day that reinforces these points: A really excellent video. Long interviews with medical staff, verité footage of people being treated for injuries in a field hospital (nothing worse than you would see on a medical show), and moments of stoicism and humor. I could’ve watched two hours of this. Someone should make the Bakhmut version of “Baghdad ER” and catch all the human stories coming out of this moment.
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Dec 11, 2022 23:57
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FishBulbia posted:An alternative for Bakhmut Apparently, the ground there is frozen enough that part of the challenge for RuAF is to hold any ground they take. They're struggling with digging trenches due to weather, and those buildings are all like cheese by now, fully mapped out for fires. Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/Textyorgua_Eng/status/1600950741685846016?t=B8I-0OaS3-nLCylA16MgOA&s=19 This is a cool piece, thank you for bringing it. Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1600651328740818945?t=ZLe3SnOZGlzZv63a2e5rRg&s=19 Hannibal Rex posted:Rusich is conducting a targeted psyop on Cinci by encouraging Clancychat. They could be just complaining that our counter-intelligence got one of their people quite recently.
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Dec 11, 2022 23:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They could be just complaining that our counter-intelligence got one of their people quite recently. Joke, or is this referring to a specific ban?
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Dec 12, 2022 00:01
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Rinkles posted:Joke, or is this referring to a specific ban? No, not joking. There's a known shithead Telegram channel “Baltic antifascists”, that has not all that much to do with anti-fascism, and our security services (misremembered counter-intelligence participation though, that was on TV Rain and the February spy court cases only) seem to have figured out who runs it. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/lat...legram.a484477/ On the topic of Rusich specifically, the February case is probably quite relevant, since a Belarus citizen got caught quite red-handed there, with, uhm, an intriguing photography hobby. https://nra.lv/latvija/395042-tiesai-nodota-kriminallieta-par-spiegosanu-baltkrievijas-izlukdienesta-laba.htm
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Dec 12, 2022 00:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I wonder if “absolutely” was meant there, or “at all”. It should be the former, but the phrase then looks weird, to me anyways. https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1600662304982532097?t=5rFgiiuPd60p5O4W2nBCJQ&s=19 You're not the first one finding the phrasing unclear.
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Dec 12, 2022 02:14
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https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ec...nts-office.htmlquote:Hungary blocked the European Union’s decision on a EUR 18 billion aid package for Ukraine, including a 10-year grace period for loans. An unanimous decision by 27 EU Member States was required to approve the aid package. The Czech Presidency of the Council of the EU developed a solution to bypass Hungary’s veto: the loan guarantees will be covered not by the EU budget but individual Member States. Puszta Putin can go gently caress himself.
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Dec 12, 2022 02:33
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1600662304982532097?t=5rFgiiuPd60p5O4W2nBCJQ&s=19 At least there was phrasing: https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1602069527444996096
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Dec 12, 2022 02:40
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I keep seeing Bakhmut isn't valuable strategically so why are Ukrainian forces just as in a hurry to take it back? Would prioritizing other places not be more effective
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Dec 12, 2022 02:51
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Alan Smithee posted:I keep seeing Bakhmut isn't valuable strategically so why are Ukrainian forces just as in a hurry to take it back? Would prioritizing other places not be more effective You don’t stop your enemy when they are making a mistake.
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Dec 12, 2022 03:12
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Alan Smithee posted:I keep seeing Bakhmut isn't valuable strategically so why are Ukrainian forces just as in a hurry to take it back? Would prioritizing other places not be more effective Ukraine still holds, and has not lost control of, Bakhmut after many months of RU attack. It is one of the few places on the whole front that RU is attacking, so it is important to hold and inflict as much damage as possible on the attacking force whilst doing so.
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Dec 12, 2022 03:29
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OddObserver posted:At least there was phrasing: More HIMARS?
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Dec 12, 2022 03:32
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Alan Smithee posted:I keep seeing Bakhmut isn't valuable strategically so why are Ukrainian forces just as in a hurry to take it back? Would prioritizing other places not be more effective Ukraine is probably quite happy to just sit there and keep inflicting damage to Russian forces (They also hve not lost Bakhmut). Russia have been pouring their best resources into the area for months now for something with no importance whatsoever while Ukraine have turned it into a Russian meatgrinder Why on earth Russia have put so much into trying to gain anything into this bloodbath is anyone's guess, it's just insanity and an incredible waste of life
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Dec 12, 2022 03:36
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1601977337591070724
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Dec 12, 2022 03:54
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Ukraine is probably quite happy to just sit there and keep inflicting damage to Russian forces (They also hve not lost Bakhmut). Russia have been pouring their best resources into the area for months now for something with no importance whatsoever while Ukraine have turned it into a Russian meatgrinder My best guess is Sunk Cost: given how much effort has been thrown into Bakhmut, and how even miniscule gains can be seen as 'pushing back' when the rest of your lines are collapsing, the commanders on ground are most likely desperate to show off a 'win'. They can at least point to Bakhmut and go 'see, at least we're giving them hell unlike those other slackers in Kherson!' even as they gain nothing of strategic value, lose more troops and time and get closer to seeing the inside of a jail cell. And after a bit it could even have a bad feedback loop: Bakhmut hasn't dissolved yet, so we MUST be doing better than Donetsk or Luhansk or Kherson. Commanders on ground getting tunnel vision, commanders in region wanting to cover their rear end, and commanders in the Kremlin desperate to not have a Polonium Tea Party.
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Dec 12, 2022 04:31
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J.A.B.C. posted:My best guess is Sunk Cost: given how much effort has been thrown into Bakhmut, and how even miniscule gains can be seen as 'pushing back' when the rest of your lines are collapsing, the commanders on ground are most likely desperate to show off a 'win'. They can at least point to Bakhmut and go 'see, at least we're giving them hell unlike those other slackers in Kherson!' even as they gain nothing of strategic value, lose more troops and time and get closer to seeing the inside of a jail cell. I think it's mainly that Prigozhin sees it as his ticket to gain influence and prestige in Moscow. Continuing the assault gives him a reason to keep Wagner separated from the rest of the armed forces, helping to maintain his exclusive insider status. Actually taking Bakhmut would make his Wagner group the only one making progress while the rest of the Russian military is retreating.
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Dec 12, 2022 04:40
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8D6LPq0TYvo (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 12, 2022 04:47
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It’s the Haig defense - See we’re taking ground on the Somme! Don’t you dare sack me when we’re taking ground and advancing! Also all Putins other generals are worse.
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Dec 12, 2022 05:40
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Following on from that triage video above https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cMnF0_4wx4 quote:2 days before the events near Shestovytsia, the Armed Forces destroyed another Russian crossing - in Makoshyny near the town of Mena.
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Dec 12, 2022 05:41
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Alan Smithee posted:I keep seeing Bakhmut isn't valuable strategically so why are Ukrainian forces just as in a hurry to take it back? Would prioritizing other places not be more effective They own it. Please check a map.
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Dec 12, 2022 08:31
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Supposedly a pilot of one of the strategic bombers in the rank of major got got during the attack on Engels (Edit: actually this is Ryazan which is not as far) https://mobile.twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1602167109425180672 
Somaen fucked around with this message at 10:10 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 09:56
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Could be that the Russians feel that they're doing sth useful with the attacks beyond territory, fixing formations, attriting manpower at an acceptable exchange rate. Or the logistics connections to bring in shells are good there so it's a way to concentrate Ukrainian troops to shell. It doesn't have to be about the city itself.
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Dec 12, 2022 10:12
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aphid_licker posted:Could be that the Russians feel that they're doing sth useful with the attacks beyond territory, fixing formations, attriting manpower at an acceptable exchange rate. Or the logistics connections to bring in shells are good there so it's a way to concentrate Ukrainian troops to shell. It doesn't have to be about the city itself. It definitely isn't about the city itself for Russia, even though if they did take it they'd throw a party like it was. I agree that part of it is Russia fixing Ukraine's forces somewhere, the same as Ukraine is fixing Russia there. But I believe the idea is just to focus somewhere, ANYWHERE and try to get a breakthrough cause they haven't had any since Lysychansk fell. And while there is strategic sense for Ukraine C-blocking Russia there, I believe Ukraine's main reason for holding it is out of principle. It is part of Ukraine, and the entire war is about deciding which parts get to stay Ukraine.
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Dec 12, 2022 10:32
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I think part of the reason they keep pouring in is that I have read that the Russian army works with the idea 'reinforce success' So that if this is the place you are relatively successful, than this is the place you send more resources to to push for a break. The problem is that this encourages commanders who want more resources to start painting rosier pictures than the reality, not just to make yourself look better, but also because if you say 'poo poo is pretty hosed' you don't get support.
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Dec 12, 2022 10:32
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German economy had a pretty decent 3rd quarter. No recession and it's no longer expected for this year. Overall growth for 2022 will be around 1.9%. Industrial production is down only 0.1% compared to 2021, orders are up by 0.8%. GDP growth prognosis for 2023 is between -1.3% and 0.8%( mainly depending on how the gas crisis continues to develop). I guess the question on whether Europe is going to collapse and abandon Ukraine is settled for now. Next year is probably going to be equally difficult because we are going to rely on still inadequate LNG infrastructure to fill storages, but by 2024 we should be back to normal. https://twitter.com/handelsblatt/status/1602141639899750400?t=FGmBtXp98aSbX_fqh-mScQ&s=19
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Dec 12, 2022 11:21
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WarpedLichen posted:I saw a video about a Ukrainian field hospital the other day that reinforces these points: "Chill, that shell was two houses down" 
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Dec 12, 2022 11:27
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WarpedLichen posted:I saw a video about a Ukrainian field hospital the other day that reinforces these points: But aren't the Russians seriously disadvantaged at night since the Ukrainians have much more access to night vision gear?
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Dec 12, 2022 11:29
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WarpedLichen posted:I saw a video about a Ukrainian field hospital the other day that reinforces these points: Jesus chris man, mild NMS? The video opens with a guy being treated who has a huge chunk of his leg torn open (the guy is obviously in serious pain but after they treat him he is literally able to walk away so hopefully a good prognosis). e: \/ I actually agree, it's the kind of imagery you'd expect to see from an uncensored hospital documentary rather than war porn, but 'no direct shots' is a wildly inaccurate description. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 12:17 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 12:07
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Alchenar posted:Jesus chris man, mild NMS? The video opens with a guy being treated who has a huge chunk of his leg torn open (the guy is obviously in serious pain but after they treat him he is literally able to walk away so hopefully a good prognosis). I feel that the segment is dour more so than shocking, as in you're not seeing jump cuts focusing on a wound oozing pools of blood or anything. I still consider it borderline, and would've preferred that the video was tagged when posted, but I have no plans to take an active issue with it.
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Dec 12, 2022 12:13
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Charlz Guybon posted:But aren't the Russians seriously disadvantaged at night since the Ukrainians have much more access to night vision gear? All armies have access to making night vision gear unnecessary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ES1Y3U2dtFw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnFYMgHVGyE
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Dec 12, 2022 12:40
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Alchenar posted:e: \/ I actually agree, it's the kind of imagery you'd expect to see from an uncensored hospital documentary rather than war porn, but 'no direct shots' is a wildly inaccurate description. That's fair, and it seems like YouTube moderation bot has caught up with both of us, marking the video as age-restricted.
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Dec 12, 2022 12:46
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Orthanc6 posted:And while there is strategic sense for Ukraine C-blocking Russia there, I believe Ukraine's main reason for holding it is out of principle. It is part of Ukraine, and the entire war is about deciding which parts get to stay Ukraine. If Ukraine abandoned Bakhmut and then Russia stopped attacking then they should probably abandon it but there's nothing to suggest Russia wouldn't just start attacking somewhere else so all it would accomplish would be to move the meatgrinder a little further into Ukraine. Ukraine should abandon Bakhmut when Russia is in a position to inflict more damage on Ukrainian forces than the other way around. If they are about to encircle them or have eyes on the main supply lines for instance.
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Dec 12, 2022 14:03
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Was the piece of poo poo who created those Nazis visiting? No particular reason why I 'm asking.
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Dec 12, 2022 14:26
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TulliusCicero posted:Was the piece of poo poo who created those Nazis visiting? No particular reason why I 'm asking. Well it wouldn't be a huge loss, so I guess no. Meanwhile somewhere... https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1602246143030722561 Finally the roles are reversed and we are exporting AFVs to Russia!  
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Dec 12, 2022 15:10
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CNN did an interview with some Russians fighting on Ukraine's side: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/05/europe/russians-fighting-for-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html There's a video format embedded but it opens with the hospital footage of a leg being treated so  there.It's incredibly ballsy for that guy to say and do what he's doing but I feel like things are not going to end well for him. I wonder how many people like that are in there in the Russian branch of Ukraine's foreign legion but I can't imagine there are that many. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 18:36
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https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1602351739100962822?t=VbDmI9gnGDVIAhkD11Xnfw&s=19 I'm still not convinced that we're going to see Iranian ballistic missiles in Ukraine, but if we do, I also think there’s going to be a response.
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Dec 12, 2022 19:00
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1602351739100962822?t=VbDmI9gnGDVIAhkD11Xnfw&s=19 It's something this thread hasn't discussed much, and perhaps something the press should pay motee attention to. It's very possible that even though Russia and NATO will avoid trading blows directly, the war widens in other ways. A whole bunch of countries would love to get in a few hits on Iran. Moldova is a bit of an unknown, though direct action by any party there is unlikely. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict could flare up; Serbia and Kosovo could continue letting larger events provide notional cover for breaking the peace ; etc.
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Dec 12, 2022 21:03
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Ynglaur posted:It's something this thread hasn't discussed much, and perhaps something the press should pay motee attention to. It's very possible that even though Russia and NATO will avoid trading blows directly, the war widens in other ways. A whole bunch of countries would love to get in a few hits on Iran. Moldova is a bit of an unknown, though direct action by any party there is unlikely. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict could flare up; Serbia and Kosovo could continue letting larger events provide notional cover for breaking the peace ; etc. Welcome to warzones, where the points don't matter and everything escalates! This is why people have clung to peace for so long--open conflicts don't stay contained and have knock-on effects. Especially if the belligerent is getting its teeth kicked in and has a number of fingers in various proxy conflicts.
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Dec 12, 2022 21:23
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| # ? May 26, 2024 21:59 |
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Ynglaur posted:It's something this thread hasn't discussed much, and perhaps something the press should pay motee attention to. It's very possible that even though Russia and NATO will avoid trading blows directly, the war widens in other ways. A whole bunch of countries would love to get in a few hits on Iran. Moldova is a bit of an unknown, though direct action by any party there is unlikely. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict could flare up; Serbia and Kosovo could continue letting larger events provide notional cover for breaking the peace ; etc. The Russia-sided Transistrian militia might go for a coup if the electricity and heat services cease to work and the actual government starts to see any serious rioting or has to organize infrastructure relief which ties their small police and military forces. They are already the larger one of the two militaries in the country at the moment. Its also up to guesswork what happens if that Wagner-lite Rusich Group starts some poo poo on their own at the Baltics; they were mentioned in the news cycle here for increasing activities in border regions.
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Dec 12, 2022 21:34
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