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it's kind of a bullshit un-quantifiable thing but rangers seem to have found some of the resilience that carried them through last year but was missing this year (especially in November) some of that is timely goaltending and some of it is just not getting frustrated and imploding when things go poorly
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Dec 16, 2022 21:12
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Jhet posted:Coaches definitely lose a room, but with Hakstol it's not that here. For me it's down to how they breakout and the rotation in the o-zone. You can have a xGA of 2nd right now, but if your actual GA/G has you sitting in 20th, you can't just blame the goalies which is what a lot of people do. (Last years was 4th xGA, but 24th actual GA/G). They're playing better in the o-zone this year which is nice to see, but defensively they've been mostly the same because that's the system. Borgen-Soucy are typically a lot better at making those decisions to jump into play with support, but the other pairs are not so good with the decision making. You could change who's playing, but that doesn't solve the problem of the system expecting them to jump fast up ice, or the system wanting them to frequently shoot from the points. Making adjustments to the system will change that. Hakstol has shown that he's stuck with his system, and I don't expect him to change it at this point. You're not going to see any kind of major system change (and certainly not mid season) from just about any coach in the NHL. There are adjustments, sure, but if they want a huge overhaul it's going to be a coaching change. If Seattle's GA continues to heavily lag behind its xGA (and 5v5 historically it didn't for his Flyers teams) and they're in danger of missing, then sure, fire him, but I don't see any evidence that he's not capable of getting that team to the playoffs. Levitate posted:it's kind of a bullshit un-quantifiable thing but rangers seem to have found some of the resilience that carried them through last year but was missing this year (especially in November) Yeah honestly they do feel like this when you watch their games, who knows how much it matters but they seem pretty unflappable T-Bone fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Dec 16, 2022 |
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Dec 16, 2022 21:21
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T-Bone posted:You're not going to see any kind of major system change (and certainly not mid season) from just about any coach in the NHL. There are adjustments, sure, but if they want a huge overhaul it's going to be a coaching change. If Seattle's GA continues to heavily lag behind its xGA (and 5v5 historically it didn't for his Flyers teams) and they're in danger of missing, then sure, fire him, but I don't see any evidence that he's not capable of getting that team to the playoffs. Exactly why I’ve been disappointed since Hakstol was announced in July before the expansion draft. I’ve known his style and systems for around 20 years now and the players keep changing but there are obvious things you can expect. They won’t change Hakstol mid season this year though, you’re right. The Pacific is soft and I wouldn’t put it past them to make the second round against LA and get destroyed by Vegas. It doesn’t make me confident in the future though because there are still the system problems that will not get changed.
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Dec 16, 2022 21:30
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Levitate posted:it's kind of a bullshit un-quantifiable thing but rangers seem to have found some of the resilience that carried them through last year but was missing this year (especially in November) Igor has been making more banger saves lately, which gives the team strength. I also like Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey as a shutdown line, too. They should 100% do that and keep running: Lafrieniere-Zibanejad-Kakko Panarin-Chytil-Goodrow/Kravtsov Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey Gauthier-Brodzinski-Goodrow/Kravtsov Laf is playing pretty well even 5v5 right now. He seems to play better with more ice time, which should not be surprising given his pedigree. He still needs to take steroids, but I think if you do the above and commit to giving the kids more 5v5 time, it would work out really well. Vesey has been honestly incredibly good this year, he has gotten really strong and is a good two-way player. He's the type of guy we should have given like 4yrs/2m to instead of Goodrow. At the deadline, I would like to see: Lafrieniere-Zibanejad-Kakko Panarin-Chytil-Kane Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey Gauthier-(some grindy Dom Moore type)-Goodrow Also, Harpur looked surprisingly competent. Would be nice if he turns out to be not too bad for the 3rd pair.
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Dec 16, 2022 21:33
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Blackbelt Bobman posted:I went into work today and my coworker said, “Hey, my friend got traded to the Sabres’ AHL team.” She was talking about this guy: Joe Cecconi is a solid hockey player and I think is due for a shot in the NHL.. obviously that didn't happen for him this season with the Stars who have been perfectly healthy, but I have a feeling he was call up #2 (after Thomas Harley) if things had fallen apart. I hope it's a Gavin Bayreuther situation where a guy that puts in the work in the AHL and who doesn't really get a chance in Dallas goes to a team that needs depth on the blueline and he puts together a nice little career.
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Dec 16, 2022 21:36
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If I had a hot unsubstantiated take on coaching it would be that nearly every coach in the NHL is pretty competent tactically and there's relatively little variance, but motivation and making your team believe in the system/themselves is masssssive (well at least relatively, it still comes down to the roster and usage). I don't think most of the bumps that come from coaching changes have anything to do with systems, but can mainly be attributed to motivation/buy in from the players (and conversely, that's why you see dropoff and the carousel start again for most coaches a few seasons later).
T-Bone fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Dec 16, 2022 |
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Dec 16, 2022 21:37
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https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1603846186292625408 Sure, that'll do it. Unless this means they're getting rid of the dumb, REGIONAL RIVALRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIES playoff format we get now and go back to 1/8, 2/7, etc., at which point, let's go.
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Dec 16, 2022 21:38
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You know what the NHL needs, even more back-to-backs for players to shuffle through like zombies. So entertaining! DUMP THAT PUCK! (stomp stomp stomp) DUMP THAT PUCK!
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Dec 16, 2022 21:40
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The Dirty Burger posted:Brunnette got out-coached pretty bad in the playoffs last year, but it was by Jon Cooper and a meat grinder of a Lightning team in the 2nd round Oh yeah, I get making a move, but yikers.
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Dec 16, 2022 21:40
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was talking with T-Bone about that Athletic odds chart and there are some notable differences between the Vegas odds and The Athletic. Threw it into a spreadsheet: so basically, if you believe The Athletic's model, there's easy money to be made on Pittsburgh/Calgary/Minnesota, but Vegas doesn't believe in them as much. Conversely, there's a lot of money to be made betting against the Islanders, Red Wings, Predators, Blues, and Rangers, who Vegas still believes in, but Dom's doesn't. 74% chance Islanders miss and bet $1k to win $2k though"to miss" bets aren't in that chart? Trap bet. my life isn't that good
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Dec 16, 2022 22:12
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T-Bone posted:If I had a hot unsubstantiated take on coaching it would be that nearly every coach in the NHL is pretty competent tactically Shall I post “Dallas-Eakins-defence.jpg” again  Obviously you can’t get to the NHL without having good grasp of the basics of the game, but I do think that there are coaches with a theory of the game informing their tactics that can be… unrealistic at the NHL level. I also feel like every bad coach can say “well, if my players just executed this system perfectly we’d have been fine” but that doesn’t mean their system is a good one.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:12
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Anyone should be happy to get 10:1 against the Penguins making the playoffs, much less loving 50:1. 98% that's just lunacy.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:16
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Blackbelt Bobman posted:I went into work today and my coworker said, “Hey, my friend got traded to the Sabres’ AHL team.” She was talking about this guy: I'm sure he's fine and probably a perfectly ok AHL player but its really funny how like half the NHL is obsessed with getting the Home Town Kids who play a handful of games and then get waived when they don't pan out. Boston does it like twice a year, Minnesota too I think.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:21
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Koopa Kid posted:Shall I post “Dallas-Eakins-defence.jpg” again I can't remember when I posted it, but my take on it is that there are 3 tiers of coach in the NHL, roughly: Guys who can make tactical adjustments and get their team to execute them: Cooper, Trotz, Sullivan, maybe Bednar. Guys whose success adjusts on them being able to institute their system and get players to buy in: pretty much everyone else. There are some good coaches in here, but pretty much most NHL coaches try to instill a game plan and judge success/failure based on how well they are able to play their game. Guys out of their element: Mike Johnston comes to mind, John MacLean, Rick Tocchet, etc. Most guys are in the second tier and can be successful if they get their guys going. That's why like Rick Bowness can be the coach of the all-time worst team and lead a team to the Finals. If you get one of those really top guys, you should hang onto them though IMO.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:21
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Eric the Mauve posted:Anyone should be happy to get 10:1 against the Penguins making the playoffs, much less loving 50:1. 98% that's just lunacy. I think Vegas is pretty on-target with them. 75% to make the playoffs feels right with 6 good teams in the Metro and 3 in the Atlantic.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:25
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CBJSprague24 posted:https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1603846186292625408 I bet a lot of moey this is so Bettman doesn't have to give in to the owners that want play-in games. Teams get 2 more games but it doesn't gently caress with the playoffs. Edit: Hell it even says that in the article!!
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Dec 16, 2022 22:25
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:I think Vegas is pretty on-target with them. 75% to make the playoffs feels right with 6 good teams in the Metro and 3 in the Atlantic. Yeah that's about where I'd put them, around 70-75%. I bet no way in hell would Dom actually lay 9-to-1 with his own money, much less anything close to the 49-to-1 he so confidently claims.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:28
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https://twitter.com/ECHL/status/1603864505020211225 Atlanta Gladiators of the ECHL bringing back the thrashers look
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Dec 16, 2022 22:31
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DJExile posted:https://twitter.com/ECHL/status/1603864505020211225 I thought I saw the Thrashers playing last night, but it turned out to be the habs.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:38
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Blackbelt Bobman posted:I went into work today and my coworker said, “Hey, my friend got traded to the Sabres’ AHL team.” She was talking about this guy: The other half of this is that it fits with the Stars obsession of getting players who are from Finland. Some day, the entire Stars roster will be Finns. The Finnish Mafia cannot be stopped.
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Dec 16, 2022 23:06
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Bring me the Finns E: and the cup.
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Dec 16, 2022 23:15
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Jamwad Hilder posted:I'm sure he's fine and probably a perfectly ok AHL player but its really funny how like half the NHL is obsessed with getting the Home Town Kids who play a handful of games and then get waived when they don't pan out. Boston does it like twice a year, Minnesota too I think. Boston and Minnesota have a lot more options to do it and at a consistently higher level than most of the rest of the league. It's a nice story and great for the kids in the area though, so even if he only plays 5 games it's a good PR boost for youth hockey in the region. There's still a shrine to TJ Oshie here at the rink he grew up playing at in Seattle (until he was playing Midgets and 15). The kids like to see it though, so I wouldn't want it to go away. Anything that's good to get kids excited to play hockey. Rinks in Minnesota and Massachusetts are highly likely to have a wall full of pictures. You can add a number of other cities/states to that list, but those are the ones with the biggest numbers still.
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Dec 16, 2022 23:38
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CBJSprague24 posted:https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1603846186292625408 I’ve been thinking about this possibility but thought the league wouldn’t go for more games. That way each team would play each other team in their division four times, each team in the other division of their conference three times, then the teams in the other conference twice each.
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Dec 17, 2022 01:45
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https://imgur.com/bEcmbdJ Red Savage and Kenny fuckin Connors
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Dec 17, 2022 02:22
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Cool that Casey made it, I was thinking they might not carry him and Hutson. That D can fuckin scoot
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Dec 17, 2022 02:33
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https://twitter.com/br_openice/status/1603771877608099841?s=46&t=zXpjsxqQ7i8sN_H141ybnQ The potty humor is whatever but is Jack Edwards doing ok? He really seems to be struggling with normal PBP duty recently on top of weird stuff like this.
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Dec 17, 2022 03:40
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Tonight's WBS game was the first time I've seen a fight end up on the bench. https://twitter.com/TaylorHaasePGH/status/1603933983506563072?t=bmZi5biaybmEkDw4Um80yg&s=19 Edit: they gave him the 3rd star for this.
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Dec 17, 2022 03:43
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Mage_Boy posted:Edit: they gave him the 3rd star for this.  Yep, that's the AHL
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Dec 17, 2022 03:54
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Why are there so many loving hockey players named Cale or Kale, I've never met a single C/Kale in my life are they all prairie farm boys? Is it something in the soil they can only grow them west of the Great Lakes?
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Dec 17, 2022 04:00
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Mind_Taker posted:
yea it's really noticeable lately. he struggles to speak sometimes. i think he's almost 70 so maybe he'll retire soon.
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Dec 17, 2022 04:21
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eXXon posted:Why are there so many loving hockey players named Cale or Kale, I've never met a single C/Kale in my life are they all prairie farm boys? Is it something in the soil they can only grow them west of the Great Lakes? They mostly seem to come from Calgary, was Cale Hulse super popular there maybe?
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Dec 17, 2022 04:29
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eXXon posted:Why are there so many loving hockey players named Cale or Kale, I've never met a single C/Kale in my life are they all prairie farm boys? Is it something in the soil they can only grow them west of the Great Lakes? There are, uh, three Cales and one Kale that have ever played in the NHL, one of them 15 years ago? Jamwad Hilder posted:yea it's really noticeable lately. he struggles to speak sometimes. i think he's almost 70 so maybe he'll retire soon. I just listened to the Bruins/Knights broadcast and was wondering if he had a sore throat or something, it is very noticeable. He also messed up the names of Knights players several times.
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Dec 17, 2022 04:31
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Jamwad Hilder posted:yea it's really noticeable lately. he struggles to speak sometimes. i think he's almost 70 so maybe he'll retire soon. Yeah it’s noticeably impacted the quality of the broadcast. I’ve always liked the NESN broadcast precisely because I think Edwards is the perfect level of homer. But it’s been a lot more difficult listening recently with him tripping over words and names all the time. And he just seems slower too. Aging sucks I guess.
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Dec 17, 2022 04:45
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Mage_Boy posted:Tonight's WBS game was the first time I've seen a fight end up on the bench. I know you've been a WBS guy for a long time... do you remember Mike Sgroi? When he played for Albany he went between the penalty box partition to fight a guy in the box. The AHL!
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Dec 17, 2022 04:50
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I just listened to a game called by Leah Hextall, and she's improved so much since last season. It's good to hear. She's no Doc, but she's no worse than any of the other B-tier regional play by play people out there either. Another year or two and she might even be pretty good. Cassie doesn't seem to be a good fit with her as she's the opposite of what Eddie Olcyzk is as a color commentator. She doesn't jump into the conversation enough in the lulls in play and Edzo does too much. She does get points for being better than Pierre McGuire.
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Dec 17, 2022 04:59
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T-Bone posted:The only place his goaltenders let him down in Philly was on the PK. The whole point of my ramblings and conjecture is/was to try and explain the deviation between the expected stats and actual outcomes. Something that Dave Hakstol, specifically, has underperformed nearly every year he has been in the NHL. I'm going to try and do a quick summary. Yes. In terms of xG and xGA Hakstol's teams should be doing better. 2015/16 - First year coach. Good outcomes. .918 and .924 from the goalies. 12.7 GSAA 2016/17 - 2nd year and implosion. .908, .891, and .928 (Stolaraz in 7 starts). Combined .905 and -19 GSAA. Hockey-Ref places Philadelphia as a -29 actual vs expected (not available for previous season). 2017/18 - Some recovery. .909, .915, .891, and .905. Combined .907 and -13.8 GSAA. +5 actual vs expected at 5v5. The PK was bad at 75%. Stop me if that sounds familiar. 2018/18 - BACK TO DOGSHIT GARBAGE. 8 goalies. .900 combined. -26.2 GSAA combined. -20 actual vs expected. 2021/22 - Hakstol's BACK BABY! -40 GSAA. .890 goaltending. -36 actual vs expected. 2022/23 - REDEMPTION. So far. Probably not. To date the Seattle Kraken are *combined* .887 with Daccord in his 1 game the only net minder to post a .900 average on the year. -14.6 GSAA so far. Currently actual vs expected is +4 (mostly on the back of Seattle's insane shooting %). WRAP IT UP rear end in a top hat!!!!!!!!! Fine. The only year with NHL average or above goaltending for Dave Hakstol was his first year in the NHL. That's just a fact. Conjecture: Dave Hakstol received that because he was new and teams hadn't figured out how to exploit his system and his coaching hadn't had enough time to ruin his goalies/team. Even this year Seattle's goaltending has been below NHL average. Of late a ton of the breakdowns and issues Seattle was having last year are occurring again. I wrote a big old blob of  recently about how Seattle has barely changed in their underlyings relative to last year. The biggest 'thing' was their shooting % was the best in the NHL by a wide margin and the goaltending was slightly better. Now both are slipping. I had said that I think Seattle had a safe gap and should make the playoffs. Right now....very much less so. Edmonton will get healthy and Conor will drag them kicking and screaming. Calgary IMO will grind out results. Stay ahead of LA and the Kraken probably likely make it...except with the current slump now you're starting to worry about competing with Colorado and Minny in the wildcard. I would not back Seattle in that competition.Edit - This is a random question I've just thought of....but with your xGA bit are you comparing raw number(s) to raw number(s). Because you 100% can not do that with NHL stuff. Unlike say....soccer...where it is significantly lower event with a bit more 'nailed on' math. You have to look at actual outcomes relative to each other. For Hakstol's first year in all situations Philly is +1 in actual and +1 in expected so they're bang on (this is using Nat stat data vs Hockey ref for the rest of the above). At 5v5 for that same year from Nat Stat Philly was +4 in actual and -6 in expected so +10 overall which is an over performance. I *KNOW* that I did this breakdown for my tomes on Hakstol previously. Dave had 3 and 1/3rd years in Philly and now closing in on 1.5 in Seattle. The same issues of 'unreliable goaltending and bad PK' plague him. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 05:51 on Dec 17, 2022 |
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Dec 17, 2022 05:08
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Schremp Howard posted:I know you've been a WBS guy for a long time... do you remember Mike Sgroi? When he played for Albany he went between the penalty box partition to fight a guy in the box. The AHL! I've actually only been going regularly for about 6 years now. Previously got to go to only the occasional game. But now I work day shift. Man, I kinda wish I saw that.
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Dec 17, 2022 05:14
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Eric the Mauve posted:There are, uh, three Cales and one Kale that have ever played in the NHL, one of them 15 years ago? Buddy, there's a Cael in the WHL: https://mobile.twitter.com/adamzherman/status/728317545460174849 That's a couple of Kale's short of a salad 
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Dec 17, 2022 05:25
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Jhet posted:I just listened to a game called by Leah Hextall, and she's improved so much since last season. It's good to hear. She's no Doc, but she's no worse than any of the other B-tier regional play by play people out there either. Another year or two and she might even be pretty good. Cassie doesn't seem to be a good fit with her as she's the opposite of what Eddie Olcyzk is as a color commentator. She doesn't jump into the conversation enough in the lulls in play and Edzo does too much. She does get points for being better than Pierre McGuire. She's been on Dallas games once or twice this year and I've thought she's done a fine job. Doesn't stop an absolute barrage of completely unwarranted criticism pouring out from all platforms of social media every time she is on the broadcast, including the most disgusting and misogynistic comments you are likely to run into following hockey (which is saying something). I've even seen some commentators and bloggers with pretty large followings take shots at her which I found shocking but I guess it's anything to drive clicks and engagement and griping about Leah Hextall does it like none other. I don't expect she can ever win these fuckers over but god bless her for trying.
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Dec 17, 2022 08:35
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xG is a flaky, unreliable stat and you shouldn't really base any kind of serious analysis on it as for coaching pretty much every coach plays the same system. the only real variations are on how much you dump it in vs carry it in and how accountable coaches hold players for adhering to the system. a coach like boudreau pretty much lets players ignore the system while a coach like tortorella or brind'amour will bench you if you don't do exactly what he thinks you should do. the difference between coaches is almost all down to player usage and how well they can keep the team motivated. tactically there's like zero evidence coaches have any impact except for when some coach introduces a new system and it takes a couple seasons for the league to catch up. hakstol coaches the same system as everyone else. there's no weird defensive positioning or centers playing too far out or whatever you think causes their goalies to suck. seattle's goalies suck because they play dunn and schwartz and burakovsky and schwartz and benier and a bunch of other poor defensive players a lot and they blow a lot of defensive plays. he's also got like 5 nhl seasons so 'his goalies have underperformed expected almost every season he's coached' isn't really damning
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Dec 17, 2022 08:46
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