MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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Who's your 2022 MVP? This poll is closed.
Shohei Ohtani	50	59.52%
Aaron Judge	19	22.62%
Hey, the national league has an MVP too you know!	15	17.86%
Total:	84 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

live with fruit posted:

Kepler's fun because he's German and there aren't that many European players in MLB but that's about it.

Actually, I think he might be the only one.

He's also an anti-vax.

But he's very sad about not being allowed into Canada.

https://twitter.com/betsyhelfand/status/1532726556577112064

Popete fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Dec 17, 2022

# ? Dec 17, 2022 00:06

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# ? May 29, 2024 02:38

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

STAC Goat posted:

He played a little out there last season as the Yankees were trying to find a way to get him everyday abs. He looks ok? Who knows how he�d hold up even without the injury he picked up though. It would very much be a �you want to start everyday, we need a LFer and backup 1B, we can try this if you�re willing� project for the spring. I have no idea if that would be appealing to either side but the alternatives are make a trade with a team looking to score big from you or Stanton/Cabrera/Hicks. And if Carpenter can�t play LF (or hit) then it�s Stanton/Cabrera/Hicks anyway. So I dunno. It�s just a random thought of what they could possibly do outside the box this winter.

Obviously that�s all moot if Carpenter can get a better deal somewhere else. Or if there�s some trade target the Yanks like. But I don�t see Cashman giving up a lot. And don�t see an obvious guy he should for.

Cashman really has done a great job this offseason huh? It really took elite level GM'ing to give money to Judge and Rodon lol

# ? Dec 17, 2022 00:10

live with fruit: Aug 15, 2010

Popete posted:

He's also an anti-vax.

But he's very sad about not being allowed into Canada.

https://twitter.com/betsyhelfand/status/1532726556577112064

Classic Berliner.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 00:12

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

ihatepants posted:

Kepler has always been a Statcast enigma because he looks great on Statcast, but his actual in game performance hasn't lined up (except for the 2019 rocket ball year). His BABIP is historically low (.248 career puts him as 6th lowest ever since 1961). Banning the shift should help a little because he's supposedly lost the second most hits to the shift since 2020 and adding those 47 hits bumps up his .220 average since 2020 to .268

yeah but he hits those balls hard into the ground a lot.

https://twitter.com/ifthechufits/status/1603878230343438336?s=20&t=LMbxFlyCfbYeW5ITUqvcug

Seager was the hitter most affected by the shift in 2022 and it cost him .064 OPS, which isn't nothing, but also helps us visualize the upper-end of how much guys can expect to gain from it.

EDIT: I don't necessarily dislike Kepler, but I don't think the Yankees need Lefty Bader Jr. that badly.

Inspector_666 fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Dec 17, 2022

# ? Dec 17, 2022 00:17

STAC Goat: Mar 12, 2008; Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

mcmagic posted:

Cashman really has done a great job this offseason huh? It really took elite level GM'ing to give money to Judge and Rodon lol

He ignored nonsense like �blow up the team�, �trade Gleyber for a bag of balls�, and �let Judge walk� so he�s doing alright.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 00:29

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Milovan Drecun posted:

Lol come on. He signed for $350 million. That's no small difference. He took a 1 year bet on himself deal, so he could get a mega contract this off-season. His objective was always 'more than Lindor' money. $300 million is a lot, but I think you're deluding yourself to imagine he'd have signed any sooner than he did. Boras and he played the whole situation perfectly.

Like, be mad the Twins wouldn't go to $350 million, god knows I wanted them too! But creating imaginary scenarios where he signs for cheap is pointless narrative concoction.

could be! I read his Dior comment as there being a price he'd take without hitting the market. My baseless guess is that it was that $300m range. Both of those could be misreads given that he's a Boras client and his eventual contract!

# ? Dec 17, 2022 00:32

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

On Kepler, here's The Athletic's 2021 dive into the man's garbage BABIP. Tl;dr: "Luck has nothing to do with it. Not all contact is created equal"

quote:

It makes sense when a high-strikeout hitter has a low batting average.

Miguel San�, for instance, has the highest strikeout rate in Twins history, and he�s a career .237 hitter. Josh Willingham, who has the third-highest strikeout rate in team history, hit just .232 in a Twins uniform. When you fail to put the ball in play, it�s impossible to get a hit, and high-strikeout hitters like San� and Willingham sacrifice singles in pursuit of homers. It�s pretty straightforward.

Considerably more confounding is when a hitter consistently posts low batting averages despite low strikeout rates. Max Kepler is that type of hitter.

Kepler has struck out in just 18.6 percent of his career plate appearances, well below the MLB average of 22.1 percent and nearly half as often as San�, who has whiffed 36.6 percent of the time. For every 162 games they�ve played, San� has 245 strikeouts to 122 for Kepler. Despite that whiff discrepancy, San�s career batting average is .237 and Kepler�s is .233, including .204 this season.

Kepler does just about everything else well. He has plenty of power and a good eye at the plate, averaging 28 homers and 66 walks per 162 career games. He�s also 8-for-8 stealing bases this season and is a very good defensive right fielder capable of playing a decent center field when needed. That skill mix, especially when attached to a low strikeout rate, typically adds up to an All-Star player.

However, his inability to get his batting average above .250, let alone anywhere close to .300, has held Kepler back from becoming much more than an average regular save for a career year in 2019 � when his batting average was a career-high .252. Since then, Kepler has hit .212 in 135 games, with a .736 OPS that sits 119 points below his 2019 mark and is barely above the MLB average.

High-strikeout hitters frequently receive immense criticism and, in turn, can be somewhat underrated in many cases, because their failure at the plate is obvious to anyone paying even a little attention. Kepler avoids that same fate by making far more contact than the whiff-prone San�, outright failing less often, except Kepler�s batting average is slightly worse and his career OPS is 62 points lower.

Why? Because the contact Kepler makes is significantly less valuable.

When making contact, Kepler has a lifetime .247 batting average on balls in play. San�s batting average on balls in play is .329. Those marks are at opposite ends of the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) spectrum. Among the 212 active hitters with at least 500 career games, San� ranks 30th and Kepler ranks 211th, ahead of only notoriously light-hitting backup catcher Drew Butera.

Here are their respective BABIP totals, by year:

San� has out-hit Kepler by 82 points of BABIP for their careers, including at least 50 points in each of the six seasons they�ve played together. San�s worst BABIP in a season is higher than Kepler�s best. During that time, the leaguewide BABIP is .297, meaning San� has been 32 points above average and Kepler has been 50 points below average.

BABIP doesn�t include homers, since they aren�t technically �in play.� So here�s another way to look at the quality of contact: When not striking out, San� has hit .408 with an .843 slugging percentage, compared with .299 with a .568 slugging percentage for Kepler. San�s contact is massively more valuable than Kepler�s contact, so much so that it can make up for twice as many strikeouts.

But how?

There�s a tendency to assume an extremely low BABIP is the result of bad luck and, over a large enough sample, should be counted on to improve. Regression to the mean, which in this case would elevate a low BABIP closer to the league average of .300 or so. That�s true in a big-picture, leaguewide sense, but it can fail on an individual basis, confusing bad hitting for bad luck.

After every season of Kepler�s career, the assumption has been that his BABIP will be much higher the next year because his bad luck will even out. And yet it never happens. Because although Kepler certainly isn�t immune from bad luck, his BABIP isn�t low due to being unlucky, it�s low because the balls he puts in play have considerably less value than an �average� ball in play.

Kepler is in his sixth full season with the Twins, approaching 3,000 career plate appearances as a big leaguer. His lifetime BABIP is 50 points below the MLB average, including at least 25 points below average in every season and at least 50 points below average in each of the past four seasons. That has no more to do with �bad luck� than San�s high strikeout totals do. It�s just who Kepler is.

Here are the lowest career BABIP totals by all MLB hitters with at least 2,500 plate appearances since 1990:

Max Kepler
.247
LEFT
Rod Barajas
.248
RIGHT
Henry Blanco
.250
RIGHT
Mark McGwire
.254
RIGHT
Carlos Quentin
.255
RIGHT
Joe Crede
.255
RIGHT
Maikel Franco
.257
RIGHT
Tony Batista
.257
RIGHT
Joe Carter
.257
RIGHT
Jeff Mathis
.260
RIGHT
Three things stand out. First and foremost is that Kepler has the majors� lowest BABIP since 1990 among players with the requisite plate appearances. But beyond that, note that he�s the only left-handed bat in the bunch and each of the nine right-handed hitters joining him can accurately be described as �plodding.� Everyone else is a backup catcher, a big-bodied first baseman/left fielder or a third baseman known for a lack of foot speed.

Kepler, meanwhile, is a left-handed hitter with above-average speed and above-average athleticism who consistently rates as a very good defensive right fielder and who has enough range to capably play center field if needed. He has no business whatsoever being grouped with the likes of Henry Blanco, Mark McGwire and Tony Batista. Yet there he is, at the �top� of the list.

Why does Kepler have the BABIP of a plodding right-handed hitter? Because he�s so one-dimensional at the plate � pulling the ball so often, with many of his hardest-hit pulled balls being on the ground � that opposing defenses can overload the right side, knowing that Kepler will rarely, if ever, make an extreme shift pay by intentionally hitting to the opposite field.

Kepler has faced a shift for 92.9 percent of the pitches he�s seen since the start of 2020, second highest in the majors behind only all-or-nothing slugger Joey Gallo. Kepler is one of just five hitters during that time to be shifted for more than 90 percent of his pitches. He�s hit .212 when shifted against, including a .220 BABIP. Defenses know exactly where his balls in play are going.

Kepler debuted in 2015. He�s pulled 45.7 percent of his balls in play since then, sixth highest among left-handed hitters. That in and of itself isn�t necessarily a bad thing, as most power comes from pulling the ball. However, power requires elevating the ball. Kepler is one of three left-handers since 2015 with a pull rate above 45 percent and a groundball rate above 40 percent. That�s a bad combo.

There�s also another factor sabotaging Kepler�s batting average: pop-ups.

When he manages to elevate the ball, keeping it away from being vacuumed up by shifted infielders, Kepler has hit a pop-up on one out of every eight fly balls in his career � 12.2 percent, sixth most among left-handed hitters since 2015. Kepler�s swing has also gotten �under� 30 percent of his balls in play, resulting in pop-ups and weak fly balls. Easy outs. The league average is 24 percent.

Strikeouts draw by far the most attention and criticism, but there isn�t a whole lot more value in making contact if it�s in the form of grounders pulled into the waiting shift or pop-ups being converted into outs roughly 99.9 percent of the time by major-league fielders. Those may seem better, and certainly get a hitter booed less often on the way back to the dugout, but the result is the same.

Kepler�s low batting average is the direct result of a hitter whose contact turns into more automatic outs than almost anyone in the game, wiping away nearly all of the value usually associated with a low strikeout rate. It turns a very good all-around player with a wide array of skills into merely an average-ish regular, albeit in a less obvious way than another 100 strikeouts per season would.

Luck has nothing to do with it. Not all contact is created equal.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 00:39

Milovan Drecun: Apr 17, 2007; I masturbate in traffic.

Paracaidas posted:

could be! I read his Dior comment as there being a price he'd take without hitting the market. My baseless guess is that it was that $300m range. Both of those could be misreads given that he's a Boras client and his eventual contract!

# ? Dec 17, 2022 01:11

Nodoze: Aug 17, 2006; If it's only for a night I can live without you

I'm glad they didn't give Benintendi a five year deal. He's a solid player but he doesn't hit for much power already and is coming off a wrist injury now.

I think once the trade market gets cooking that Cashman will make a few moves, I don't believe Stanton is going to play that much outfield given the injury he got last year and I don't think that Cabrera is going to be the every day LF either.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 01:17

maruhkati: Sep 29, 2021; NAZ REID

The Twins are sad about not having Sano and (probably) Kepler next season so they decided to sign the dude who's somehow both of them at the same time.

TBH, I wouldn't mind this move at all if he were a righty and not a lefty - they need right-handed hitting more than they need pitching. And this was true BEFORE Correa walked.

In any case, at least they're not gutting the roster for prospects in the hopes that maybe, in five years, they might maybe possibly have an opportunity to make a playoff run that's almost as good as the chance they had entering THIS offseason.

maruhkati fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Dec 17, 2022

# ? Dec 17, 2022 01:38

live with fruit: Aug 15, 2010

maruhkati posted:

The Twins are sad about not having Sano and (probably) Kepler next season so they decided to sign the dude who's somehow both of them at the same time.

My first thought reading this was "Gallo assaulted a photographer?".

# ? Dec 17, 2022 01:47

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Well, he took a swing but he missed

# ? Dec 17, 2022 01:49

maruhkati: Sep 29, 2021; NAZ REID

live with fruit posted:

My first thought reading this was "Gallo assaulted a photographer?".

Left-handed corner outfielder with solid pop and a decent glove but can't hit for average to save his life. It's not a one-to-one comparison because as far as I'm aware Gallo is allowed to enter Canada.

maruhkati fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Dec 17, 2022

# ? Dec 17, 2022 01:49

Red: Apr 15, 2003; Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

Nodoze posted:

I'm glad they didn't give Benintendi a five year deal. He's a solid player but he doesn't hit for much power already and is coming off a wrist injury now.

Wait, did he have the injury all year and finally just couldn't play through it in September, or did he suffer it in September?

Link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34525413/new-york-yankees-andrew-benintendi-broken-wrist-bone-status-uncertain

quote:

Boone revealed after the Yankees' 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday that Benintendi had broken the hook of his right hamate bone. Benintendi was placed on the 10-day injured list Saturday with right wrist inflammation after injuring it on a swing and miss during Friday night's game at Tropicana Field.

Benintendi's surgery will take place on Tuesday.

Benintendi had undergone further testing after X-rays and an MRI had not revealed the source of the injury. But there was still some confusion stemming from the diagnosis, since Benintendi underwent surgery to have the hamate bone in his right hand removed before his freshman year in college.

"He [had the surgery to remove the hamate bone] but there could have been some left or whatever. He'll have to have surgery on that," Boone explained.

"It's something I've dealt with before," said Benintendi, who was wearing an air cast. "I have [dealt with it] before but now we're still trying to learn some more things. But yeah, that's what it is right now. Meeting with doctors tomorrow in New York and go from there. Just take it day by day at this point."

It was the hamate, and he's had the injury before, so, clearly, he can bounce back, potentially, and get into the high teens for dingers.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 02:12

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

zoux posted:

Like, how many points of OPS are we expecting dead pull hitters to add next season? More or less than .100

.075 or about yeah

# ? Dec 17, 2022 02:44

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

Red posted:

It was the hamate, and he's had the injury before, so, clearly, he can bounce back, potentially, and get into the high teens for dingers.

It's a hamate bone he already had removed in high school! Just a truly insane and cursed injury. I don't understand how it happened at all.

I feel like a doctor should at least be getting a strongly worded e-mail.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 02:57

Hand Row: May 28, 2001

Plz Yankees take Christian Yelich

# ? Dec 17, 2022 03:24

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

Hand Row posted:

Plz Yankees take Christian Yelich

Is there even any smoke to this or is it just a bunch of people on Twitter punching names into that Trade Value site?

# ? Dec 17, 2022 03:24

Hand Row: May 28, 2001

I dunno I am just a poor sod that�s a Brewer/Cubs fan that would love to unload a broken Yelich.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 03:26

IcePhoenix: Sep 18, 2005; Take me to your Shida

Paracaidas posted:

On Kepler, here's The Athletic's 2021 dive into the man's garbage BABIP. Tl;dr: "Luck has nothing to do with it. Not all contact is created equal"

Oh if Kepler hits a lot of popups I guess I understand why the Yankees want him then

# ? Dec 17, 2022 03:26

Timby: Dec 23, 2006; Your mother!

Inspector_666 posted:

Is there even any smoke to this or is it just a bunch of people on Twitter punching names into that Trade Value site?

Yelich's never been the same ever since he hosed up his back (his swing got huge) and I can't tell if the Brewers are actually burning it down or just trying to feign competitiveness until the bottom really falls out from the team. I'm sure they'd love to be out of that contract, though--he's got six more years on it.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 03:33

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

Hand Row posted:

I dunno I am just a poor sod that�s a Brewer/Cubs fan

holy moly

# ? Dec 17, 2022 03:46

MrMidnight: Aug 3, 2006

Hand Row posted:

I dunno I am just a poor sod that’s a Brewer/Cubs fan that would love to unload a broken Yelich.

You might want to get that looked at

# ? Dec 17, 2022 03:58

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

I need my Astros re-sign Brantley news dangit :smith:

# ? Dec 17, 2022 04:00

Hand Row: May 28, 2001

The Brewers were in the AL in the 90s so if you are an old enough age the Cubs were your NL team, especially with all their games on WGN back then. I�ll admit after time I prefer them to be loveable losers rather than have true success but hey that�s a common enough Cubs fan that prefers the misery.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 04:05

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

What about Yelich for Stanton? I think i'd do that.

STAC Goat posted:

He ignored nonsense like �blow up the team�, �trade Gleyber for a bag of balls�, and �let Judge walk� so he�s doing alright.

They still need to dump Gleyber and blow up the offensive side of the team to be any better than last year.

mcmagic fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Dec 17, 2022

# ? Dec 17, 2022 04:26

Shiroc: May 16, 2009; Sorry I'm late

It is kinda incredible that Zunino has the potential to be a tremendous upgrade at catcher for Cleveland. One of his bad seasons puts in line with the standard and one of his better seasons would be one of the most valuable catcher performances for the team in the last decade.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 04:46

Poque: Sep 11, 2003; =^-^=

Hand Row posted:

Brewer/Cubs fan

this is an outrage.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 05:06

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

as a Cards/Brewers/Cubs fan, I

# ? Dec 17, 2022 05:17

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

Intruder posted:

as a Cards/Brewers/Cubs fan, I

*implodes*

# ? Dec 17, 2022 05:36

Soul Glo: Aug 27, 2003; Just let it shine through

Hand Row posted:

I dunno I am just a poor sod that’s a Brewer/Cubs fan that would love to unload a broken Yelich.

what the gently caress

# ? Dec 17, 2022 05:38

Mustached Demon: Nov 12, 2016

Intruder posted:

as a Cards/Brewers/Cubs fan, I

This is violence.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 05:39

No Safe Word: Feb 26, 2005

Cubs/Brewers I could get if you are at least 35+ and were a fan when they were an AL team

# ? Dec 17, 2022 05:49

more falafel please: Feb 26, 2005; forums poster

No Safe Word posted:

Cubs/Brewers I could get if you are at least 35+ and were a fan when they were an AL team

yeah as a cubs fan this seems reasonable to me, especially if you're from wisconsin and grew up on WGN. the cubs and brewers are barely a rivalry imo, they're division rivals but not "rivals"

# ? Dec 17, 2022 06:02

STAC Goat: Mar 12, 2008; Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Living in a city with two teams in nearly every sport I guess I never really understood that kind of intense rivalry �how dare you?!� Like if someone says they�re a Mets and Yankees fan you kind of kid them about it a little but then you go back to not caring at all. Maybe it takes distance to make fanbases hate each other and otherize people.

I don�t even really understand it with Boston/NY. Like I�ve known some Yankee fans who really hate the Red Sox but they�re deranged fans in general. I don�t wanna lose to them and I�ll got fired up for those peak rivalry years but like the weird city wide hatred thing just always creeped me out.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 06:08

SilvergunSuperman: Aug 7, 2010

You sick idiot!

# ? Dec 17, 2022 06:24

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

STAC Goat posted:

Living in a city with two teams in nearly every sport I guess I never really understood that kind of intense rivalry �how dare you?!� Like if someone says they�re a Mets and Yankees fan you kind of kid them about it a little but then you go back to not caring at all. Maybe it takes distance to make fanbases hate each other and otherize people.

I don�t even really understand it with Boston/NY. Like I�ve known some Yankee fans who really hate the Red Sox but they�re deranged fans in general. I don�t wanna lose to them and I�ll got fired up for those peak rivalry years but like the weird city wide hatred thing just always creeped me out.

In 2004 I would�ve pressed the button to nuke Boston. I don�t care that much now.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 06:26

Hand Row: May 28, 2001

No Safe Word posted:

Cubs/Brewers I could get if you are at least 35+ and were a fan when they were an AL team

Yes that is it. It�s complicated but I would also add I do dislike the Cubs fan base. Maybe saying I am a fan is too strong of a word and it�s more like I have a soft spot for the team and as I mentioned it was stronger when they were loveable losers. Which basically no longer exists with the Ricketts owning the team now and whatever the gently caress they are doing with the team.

The White Sox were the hated team when I was a kid and the teams would always brawl it owned.

Hand Row fucked around with this message at 10:33 on Dec 17, 2022

# ? Dec 17, 2022 10:30

exquisite tea: Apr 21, 2007; Carly shook her glass, willing the ice to melt. "You still haven't told me what the mission is."

She leaned forward. "We are going to assassinate the bad men of Hollywood."

Being a Mets/Yankees fan I can understand if you just believe in NY supremacy and don't particularly care all that much who does it, same for any other big market city with a league split.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 12:54

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# ? May 29, 2024 02:38

LongTimeFirstTime: Sep 29, 2021

Big Mean Jerk posted:

BRING BACK UNCLE MIKE

Yes, please.

Intruder posted:

I need my Astros re-sign Brantley news dangit

Because of the uncertainty over his shoulder surgery, lots of talking heads suggesting no one will be signing him until late in the off-season. Hmph.

# ? Dec 17, 2022 16:24

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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