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Coldbird posted:Leaving the country for any reason just seems like a bad idea. What’s the upside? It makes him look good in front of the US, sure, but that partnership wasn’t particularly at risk. It may be in the future once (if?) the R House manages to organize itself - but by that point his visit will too long in the past to matter. Dude was just visiting the troops in Bakhmut, probably one of the most dangerous places in the world right now. After 10 months I think he'll be ok on a 2 day business trip* to address the legislature of the pre-eminent power supporting his country. *I don't know how long the trip is gonna be but I can't imagine long.
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Dec 21, 2022 00:25
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Coldbird posted:Leaving the country for any reason just seems like a bad idea. What’s the upside? It makes him look good in front of the US, sure, but that partnership wasn’t particularly at risk. It may be in the future once (if?) the R House manages to organize itself - but by that point his visit will too long in the past to matter. He literally just made an appearance at one of the most active sections the front, spending a couple days to shore up relations with the country providing >50% of military aid for the conflict isn't exactly "appearing to not care."
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Dec 21, 2022 00:25
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No you see, the moment he leaves all troops take a -25% moral hit, he needs to be in range for his AOE powers to work
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Dec 21, 2022 00:28
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CNN is reporting it now too. They don't say anything new but just reiterate that the trip might still be cancelled for security reasons and it probably won't be confirmed until the last possible minute. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-washington-dc-visit/index.html
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Dec 21, 2022 00:32
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https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1605329486542966785 Besides, things seem to be going increasingly well up north.
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Dec 21, 2022 00:35
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The US is passing a budget omnibus bill tonight: https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1605341612367716352 https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1605341140240240645
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Dec 21, 2022 00:38
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This is all misdirection. If you think Zelensky is in Washington, he's probably in St. Petersburg. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 21, 2022 00:46
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sniper4625 posted:Besides, things seem to be going increasingly well up north. It's a couple of KM of ground. Small stuff like this happens all the time.
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Dec 21, 2022 01:38
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Foreign leaders at war travel outside the country all the time. The Malta Conference, anyone? Zelenskyy leaving Ukraine is a Big Deal, but it's not a Negative Big Deal. Something struck me watching the Army-Navy Game this year (American football): the Army team had patches for the 1st Armored Division because they're over in Europe right now. I had assumed that only XVIII Airborne Corps operational units were in Europe. 1AD is part of III Armored Corps. It's of course very possible that it was just easier to put that 1AD brigade under operational command of whatever Corps is running Europe--training rotations, etc. all matter for that sort of thing. But it makes me think that the US, at least, isn't putting its entire European contingency on the backs of a handful of light infantry brigades.
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Dec 21, 2022 01:42
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George VI came to the US
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Dec 21, 2022 01:42
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So this is a little weird: https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1605259964947529728 As far as I can understand the JDAM thing is a guidance conversion kit for dumb bombs, which sounds like something really hard to use w/o air superiority.
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Dec 21, 2022 02:02
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OddObserver posted:So this is a little weird: Why? You can use all manner of air to ground munitions in contested airspace and JDAM kits make dumb bombs incredibly effective. You just have some risk of taking losses so it won’t be like some kind of US/NATO air campaign.
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Dec 21, 2022 02:10
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MikeC posted:It's a couple of KM of ground. Small stuff like this happens all the time. A couple of km putting them on the doorstep of a major objective. Not putting carts before horses but hopefully it turns out to be slightly more important than the prior two months of very slow line shifting.
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Dec 21, 2022 02:13
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Why? You can use all manner of air to ground munitions in contested airspace and JDAM kits make dumb bombs incredibly effective. You just have some risk of taking losses so it won’t be like some kind of US/NATO air campaign. Ukraine doesn't have many planes to spare. I too don't quite understand how JDAMs are any use when they don't have air superiority. Like yeah from what I understand you can get a little bit of standoff range by dropping the bomb and allowing it to glide to hit the target but that doesn't seem like enough distance to avoid AA missiles. But I'm not an expert on these things.
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Dec 21, 2022 02:25
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Coldbird posted:Leaving the country for any reason just seems like a bad idea. What’s the upside? It makes him look good in front of the US, sure, but that partnership wasn’t particularly at risk. It may be in the future once (if?) the R House manages to organize itself - but by that point his visit will too long in the past to matter. The UK and US population and military famously tried to abandon their fight in WW2 when Churchill and FDR went on vacation with Stalin in Yalta, so I definitely see what precedent you’re talking about! That’s why the Nazis won ww2. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 21, 2022 02:30
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Charliegrs posted:Ukraine doesn't have many planes to spare. I too don't quite understand how JDAMs are any use when they don't have air superiority. Like yeah from what I understand you can get a little bit of standoff range by dropping the bomb and allowing it to glide to hit the target but that doesn't seem like enough distance to avoid AA missiles. But I'm not an expert on these things. Pure speculation but something like LABS might work. SAMs have a hard time intercepting low level fast movers. Ukraine may not have many planes to spare but they’re still flying sorties and tools to increase their effectiveness are useful.
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Dec 21, 2022 02:31
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Charliegrs posted:I don't know if it makes much of a difference. Zelensky will most likely travel by land over into Poland then take a flight to the US. So unless the Russians want to fly over NATO territory to shoot down the passenger jet carrying Zelensky then I don't think there's much danger. And with Zelensky out of the country what are the Russians going to do? Invade harder? Most passenger jets flying between Europe/NA/Asia use the arctic circle. In theory, the Russians could shoot down a passenger jet (or a few) there.
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Dec 21, 2022 02:32
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Ynglaur posted:Foreign leaders at war travel outside the country all the time. The Malta Conference, anyone? That was really ballsy, FDR and Churchill meeting with Stalin in Malta all the while Italians were bombing the place!  (Yes, I know it's supposed to be Yalta...)
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Dec 21, 2022 03:18
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OddObserver posted:So this is a little weird: I am not a fighter pilot, but I imagine you could lob a bomb some distance if you get some speed going and lift up. I doubt Ukraine can fly at medium altitude, and flying at low altitude would limit the range of such a thing, but...maybe? Any pilot-types care to weigh in? Nenonen posted:That was really ballsy, FDR and Churchill meeting with Stalin in Malta all the while Italians were bombing the place!  Thanks for the correction.
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Dec 21, 2022 03:34
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Charliegrs posted:Ukraine doesn't have many planes to spare. I too don't quite understand how JDAMs are any use when they don't have air superiority. Like yeah from what I understand you can get a little bit of standoff range by dropping the bomb and allowing it to glide to hit the target but that doesn't seem like enough distance to avoid AA missiles. But I'm not an expert on these things. JDAMs are highly effective at toss bombing because unlike laser-guided weapons you don't need to paint the target or worry about the seeker losing view of the spot.
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Dec 21, 2022 04:03
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Ynglaur posted:I am not a fighter pilot, but I imagine you could lob a bomb some distance if you get some speed going and lift up. I doubt Ukraine can fly at medium altitude, and flying at low altitude would limit the range of such a thing, but...maybe? Any pilot-types care to weigh in? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toss_bombing
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Dec 21, 2022 04:20
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The JDAM thing didn't make since to me when it was leaked earlier and this new source still doesn't shed light as too why either. Best I've been able to figure it might just be something to start getting Russian anti-air radars to expose themselves to HARM missiles because now targets are going to be flying that can strike the rear. Reports are that Russian Air-Defense has gotten very good about switching off to avoid hits mostly because anything in the air was there just to hit the radars. Now that Ukraine has some air delivery bombs that will complicate the decision making and make them choose commit to a launch and risk get destroyed or stand idle and lose other assets due to indecision. Makes enough since to me but I'd rather UA just get air to ground missiles like Russia has been using.
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Dec 21, 2022 05:29
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The advantage with the JDAM is that it’s a cool kit you strap on existing bombs that uses GPS, so there’s probably zero systems integration required to attach it to a FAB-500 and drop it from a Su-25. (There are probably parameters within the JDAM kit that need to be modified to account for different dynamics of the FAB-500, but that’s pretty simple compared to actual integration). One of the problems with HARM is that it’s only useable in one targeting mode when not integrated. The fact that they are usable is pretty clever, but they are limited by the lack of integration to the launch platform’s systems. The JDAM is great compared to almost anything else because it requires zero integration. It also makes the Ukrainian planes still fly able that much more effective. It opens up a whole world of new targets to try to strike. Things that would be very difficult to hit previously are now hittable, which changes your risk calculus regarding sorties.
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Dec 21, 2022 05:37
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Here's some speculation about what the JDAM could do for Ukraine: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/what-jdam-smart-bombs-could-do-for-ukraine My summary of the article is basically that there is potential to use it at stand off range, but you would have to fly up high to lob the bomb and that puts the plane at risk since the range still isn't all that long. It isn't clear to the authors either if there would be an opportunity to use them in contested airspace. What it really opens up is the ability to precisely drop heavy bombs against preprogrammed targets so potential to strike some heavily fortified targets near the front lines if those targets of opportunity show up. HARMS do a good job of forcing anti aircraft sites to turn off temporarily, so there are ways to use them even if they aren't a wonder weapon that will break open the war like HIMARS were.
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Dec 21, 2022 07:45
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The BBC are saying that the US is giving the Patriot missile system to Ukraine. BBC News - Ukraine war: US Patriot missiles will comfort Kyiv and alarm Moscow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63994648 Given that the story mentions them being used mostly again Russian drones, how much impact do you think this will really have? I wasn't under the impression that Russia used a lot of drones?
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Dec 21, 2022 11:43
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Whilst it probably would be economically inefficient to use expensive Patriot missiles against cheap drones, Ukraine isn't the one paying the bill. There have also been repeated rumors (not confirmed afaik) about the Iranians potentially also supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, above and beyond their ongoing drone deliveries. Ukraine's air defence network is likely already strained, and would probably find it difficult to intercept these at the moment. Patriot, which has pretty decent capabilities against short-range ballistic missiles, would beef up their defences against such attacks (whilst also being generally useful and dissuading other air/missile attacks). Tigey fucked around with this message at 12:05 on Dec 21, 2022 |
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Dec 21, 2022 12:02
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StarBegotten posted:The BBC are saying that the US is giving the Patriot missile system to Ukraine. I doubt they will be used much against drones (which are used a lot on the front lines by both sides), but on ballistic/cruise missiles (even the prop powered Shahad 136 or whatever it is is just a prop powered cruise missile) and aircraft if they are getting frisky on running down the S300 stock/Ukr aircraft. Even the article itself implies that the Patriots will be retained around high value targets such as Kyiv. At three million dollars a throw, there is real value in Russia pumping out / buying lots of the cheap Shehad style drones to drive up the cost of the conflict on Ukraine and its supporter's side. It's going to be hard for Ukraine to withhold patriots, only dedicate Gerpards, etc to the defense and otherwise let the little $10-30k a throw missiles land on Kyiv.
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Dec 21, 2022 12:15
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Small White Dragon posted:Most passenger jets flying between Europe/NA/Asia use the arctic circle. In theory, the Russians could shoot down a passenger jet (or a few) there. Given the risk of assassination attempts, he might be traveling in a military plane, which might be somewhat harder to shoot down. OTOH shooting down a passenger plane from a NATO country is prolly a step too far for Putin, at least for now.
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Dec 21, 2022 12:53
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I wouldn't choose Malaysian Airlines, that's for sure.
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Dec 21, 2022 13:06
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Tehdas posted:Given the risk of assassination attempts, he might be traveling in a military plane, which might be somewhat harder to shoot down. I guess he's travelling on US government plane from Poland and that would be REALLY BAD IDEA to gently caress with, especially over NATO member territory. Not even Putin is that dumb. Conveniently, there is USAF Boeing 737 flying from Helsinki to Andrews AFB right now. 
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Dec 21, 2022 13:38
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Well OK then, it is not often that you have a day where you pretty much know for sure that it is going to be a historic day. Zelensky flying over for a prime-time televised joint session of congress to ask for assistance to defeat a Russian invasion seems like a pretty big deal.
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Dec 21, 2022 14:07
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1605552544050184192 Question: Is there anyone left in prison in Russia?
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Dec 21, 2022 14:18
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The $15bn in humanitarian aid is good to see.
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Dec 21, 2022 14:37
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I'm not sure I'm mentally prepared to see and hear MTG, Boebert, Gaetz etc. boo at Zelenskyy during his address to a joint session of Congress. Thankfully they'll be a very small minority.
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Dec 21, 2022 14:52
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Nothing conclusive on Nordstream attack that points to Russia, or any other actor https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/
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Dec 21, 2022 16:29
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https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/21/politics/iranian-drones-russia-biden-task-force-us-tech-ukraine/index.htmlquote:The Biden administration has launched an expansive task force to investigate how US and western components, including American-made microelectronics, are ending up in Iranian-made drones Russia is launching by the hundreds into Ukraine, multiple officials familiar with the effort tell CNN. It's good to see this being taken seriously; some of the investigative reporting of the "company owned by a Russian national clearly exporting dual-purpose components to Russia in violation of sanctioned ons yet somehow operating" has been really disheartening.
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Dec 21, 2022 16:31
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Gervasius posted:I guess he's travelling on US government plane from Poland and that would be REALLY BAD IDEA to gently caress with, especially over NATO member territory. Not even Putin is that dumb. https://www.flightradar24.com/2e9bdc45 
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Dec 21, 2022 16:35
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The JDAM supply strikes me as preparation for major offensives. While HARM isn't magic, it does make it possible to do a short high intensity air campaign if you're willing to spend the missiles and risk the planes; You'd then want to get as much mileage as possible out of your airstrikes while you keep the pressure on and precision bombs are the way to do that.
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Dec 21, 2022 16:42
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Here's some stuff I've come across this morning. Excerpt from Punchbowl's morning newsletter: quote:Happy Wednesday morning. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1605237743885459456 https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1605587464252403713 https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1605588031204753408 What kind of armored vehicle is that? e: switched accounts for the speech video Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Dec 21, 2022 |
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Dec 21, 2022 16:50
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Dunno which version is more credible, but in the comments it's been claimed a fake. https://mobile.twitter.com/TameBasile/status/1605587989148471297
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Dec 21, 2022 17:13
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