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We'll know how DeSantis will do very soon after he starts formally campaigning. If he's able to turn on some kind of charisma to bring to the table then he has a good chance of winning. If he ends up being a whiny wet fart like Rand Paul or something where he talks a big game in a vacuum but melts down and goes off on people for asking him 101 level easy layup questions then I don't think he's going to do well at all.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 03:15 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 03:59 |
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This Santos guy is pulling a mel brooks level parody https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1607546194309402625
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 03:18 |
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With every new article about George Santos, all I can think is that the NY Dems have Serious Problems if they're losing to this chump. https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1607528387723120642 Yes, that's an actual quote there. Full article, so you don't have to give the NY Post clicks: quote:Long Island Rep.-elect George Santos came clean to The Post on Monday, admitting that he lied on the campaign trail about his education and work experience — but insisting that the controversy won’t deter him from serving out his two-year term in Congress.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 03:19 |
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not sure if this is me making excuses for the NY Dems, but lets say they did do good oppo research and then do a bunch of ad buys to blast it out. would it matter, like is this a red or purple part of NY(C??)?
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 04:26 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:DeSantis has surprisingly high approval rating nationally, so it's not impossible. When you’re not actually in a position where people can approve of your performance or actually vote for soon, approval ratings boil down to “respondent has heard of the person.”
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 04:27 |
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:This Santos guy is pulling a mel brooks level parody "As a matter of fact, I'm extremely Jew-esque--WHY ARE YOU BOOING ME?"
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 04:32 |
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Neo Rasa posted:We'll know how DeSantis will do very soon after he starts formally campaigning. If he's able to turn on some kind of charisma to bring to the table then he has a good chance of winning. If he ends up being a whiny wet fart like Rand Paul or something where he talks a big game in a vacuum but melts down and goes off on people for asking him 101 level easy layup questions then I don't think he's going to do well at all. DeSantis couldn't win a debate against Charlie Crist. He's very bad at actually campaigning since he's only ever actually had to do it once, in 2018. Can he win? Sure. So far it looks like everyone running is extremely flawed, and if Joe Biden doesn't get primaried the Democrats are in trouble too.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 04:37 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:NYT and the Mayor of Buffalo say that the area got 49 inches of snow, thousands are without power, and 27 people are dead from the blizzard. Yeah, one of my online raid friends lives that way and she said they're doing full on vehicle bans. Literally "If you get stuck in your car, you WILL die, we will NOT rescue you because we straight up will not be able to get to you."
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 04:44 |
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Gyges posted:if Joe Biden doesn't get primaried the Democrats are in trouble too. I don’t think Biden getting primaried would be good for the Dems. I don’t think an incumbent party has ever held the White House when its incumbent president got a primary challenge. The fact of the challenge would mean the incumbent party is in a weak position and probably going to lose with either candidate. Examples in somewhat recent history: Ford (challenged by Reagan, lost general) and Carter (challenged by Ted Kennedy, lost general).
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 04:53 |
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Gyges posted:DeSantis couldn't win a debate against Charlie Crist. He's very bad at actually campaigning since he's only ever actually had to do it once, in 2018. Lots of people could win. If you've learned anything from politics of the last ten years and you haven't taken to heart that big confident predictions usually end up wrong, you haven't actually learned anything. DeSantis is more Walker than Trump, right down to how Walker was the absolute bogeyman to left-wingers in/near his home state, and just sort of "Generic Republican" to everyone else in the country, with him as the most prominent lib-owning governor as the only thing setting him out from the pack. And Walker could have won if some things had gone differently, who knows. But he didn't, and in retrospect it was never super likely, just one of many things that could have happened. I haven't seen a strong argument that DeSantis is any different.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 04:59 |
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Killer robot posted:Lots of people could win. If you've learned anything from politics of the last ten years and you haven't taken to heart that big confident predictions usually end up wrong, you haven't actually learned anything. Also DeSantis's whole potential presidential platform was on the ballot back in November and in all but a few spotty areas across the US, the voting public took one look at it and went 50.1% of the United States doesn't want some jackhole who lures unsuspecting people onto buses with free candy and forcibly ships them to random dropoff locations around the country, or who mandates LGBT+ people back into the closet or into the coffin--their choice--by government fiat, or who will send the cops to kick in your front door and gun down your dog and possibly your kids if you watch a woke movie on Disney+ to be their elected leader. The only point things get iffy is where that 50.1% are located because if they're not in the right states by less than 50,000 people you get 2016-2.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 05:09 |
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Also DeSantis hasn't even formally announced he's running, right? It's a big "if" if he ever does because he know the second he does he has to go against Trump directly and that's something he can easily fail at. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump announced as early as he did specifically to cut off DeSantis.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 05:57 |
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Neo_Crimson posted:Also DeSantis hasn't even formally announced he's running, right? It's a big "if" if he ever does because he know the second he does he has to go against Trump directly and that's something he can easily fail at. Although that big WaPo story came out a week ago about how there isn’t really any kind of Trump campaign yet.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 06:10 |
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Zwabu posted:I don’t think Biden getting primaried would be good for the Dems. I don’t think an incumbent party has ever held the White House when its incumbent president got a primary challenge. The fact of the challenge would mean the incumbent party is in a weak position and probably going to lose with either candidate. Joe Biden isn't going to be a good campaigner. The only reason he's in the White House is because Hillary couldn't even beat Donald Trump. If anyone other than a known quantity of poo poo is the Republican nominee then Biden is going to have trouble winning. Not only because nobody has ever been excited about voting for Joe Biden, but because he was already deep into a Reagan speed run in 2020. Neo_Crimson posted:Also DeSantis hasn't even formally announced he's running, right? It's a big "if" if he ever does because he know the second he does he has to go against Trump directly and that's something he can easily fail at. He literally started dumbly at the camera for 15 seconds until the moderator saved him when asked if he was running by Charlie Crist. He's also getting the legislature to change the laws so he can run without having to resign from office in 2024. If he isn't running for President in 2024, then the only other option is trying to primary Rick Scott. Which is even less likely since DeSantis ran off with his tail between his legs when Rubio didn't give up his seat in 2016.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 07:44 |
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Gyges posted:Joe Biden isn't going to be a good campaigner. The only reason he's in the White House is because Hillary couldn't even beat Donald Trump. If anyone other than a known quantity of poo poo is the Republican nominee then Biden is going to have trouble winning. Not only because nobody has ever been excited about voting for Joe Biden, but because he was already deep into a Reagan speed run in 2020. Gen Z has proven they are willing to feign excitement and vote for Biden if it means keeping Republicans out of power no matter what elese, so there's that at the very least. Gyges posted:He literally started dumbly at the camera for 15 seconds until the moderator saved him when asked if he was running by Charlie Crist. He's also getting the legislature to change the laws so he can run without having to resign from office in 2024. If he isn't running for President in 2024, then the only other option is trying to primary Rick Scott. Which is even less likely since DeSantis ran off with his tail between his legs when Rubio didn't give up his seat in 2016. Watching a primary between Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis would be like watching a fist fight between Skeletor and Hordak; you hope both of them destroy each other, but you know that's not possible, and because they're both equally awful there's no real winning outcome to the battle. Still fun to watch though
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 07:52 |
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Gyges posted:Joe Biden isn't going to be a good campaigner. The only reason he's in the White House is because Hillary couldn't even beat Donald Trump. If anyone other than a known quantity of poo poo is the Republican nominee then Biden is going to have trouble winning. Not only because nobody has ever been excited about voting for Joe Biden, but because he was already deep into a Reagan speed run in 2020. This doesn't really seem like a realistic appraisal, does it? Biden wouldn't have won if no one was excited about voting for him, and it's not as if Hillary being a terrible candidate somehow gave a guaranteed Dem win to Joe Biden specifically and no one else. Biden has his issues, but he's got a proven ability to win on a national scale, which is more than we can say for the likes of Harris or Sanders. Not only did he beat them, but he went on to beat the heavyweight champ who singlehandedly led a modern political realignment. The Dems don't have anyone waiting in the wings who has any credible chance at primarying Biden and then going on to win the election.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 08:23 |
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nine-gear crow posted:Gen Z has proven they are willing to feign excitement and vote for Biden if it means keeping Republicans out of power no matter what elese, so there's that at the very least. How are Millennials trending these days? I know Gen X and Boomers are still the bulk of GOP voters, but have Millennials been moving rightward over the last 8-12 years (or pick your timeline), or fairly consistent?
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 08:25 |
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Shooting Blanks posted:How are Millennials trending these days? I know Gen X and Boomers are still the bulk of GOP voters, but have Millennials been moving rightward over the last 8-12 years (or pick your timeline), or fairly consistent? "Did Not Vote" is still far and away the #1 winner for Millennials, handily beating out any rightward or leftward drift that can be detected. They are getting mildly more conservative for various reasons, but that drift is still cancelled out by "I didn't vote, but here's my 80,000 word Reddit thesis on why you should listen to my opinions about..."
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 08:37 |
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I think the big metric is going to be Trump supporters that don't get Trump as a candidate and therefore stay at home, it's going to be some very weird niche voter suppression turnout number that I don't think anyone is going to be able to model correctly in the polls.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 08:38 |
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Main Paineframe posted:This doesn't really seem like a realistic appraisal, does it? Biden wouldn't have won if no one was excited about voting for him, and it's not as if Hillary being a terrible candidate somehow gave a guaranteed Dem win to Joe Biden specifically and no one else. The two selling points for Joe Biden in 2020 were A)He's the only person who can beat Donald Trump(stop looking at polls and take the DNC/Media's word for it) and B)Remember how nice it was before we all took the escalator to hell The entire mechanism by which he got the nomination was the party scrambling to dump everyone else to keep Bernie from winning, or becoming the undisputed front runner after Super Tuesday. The general was then won on the resounding strength of being the option that wasn't Donald Trump. There was nobody voting for Diamond Joe, everyone was desperately voting against the other guy. So if the other guy isn't on the ballot, Biden is going to have to dust off the winning formula of not being able to even place in any contest before South Carolina. Shooting Blanks posted:How are Millennials trending these days? I know Gen X and Boomers are still the bulk of GOP voters, but have Millennials been moving rightward over the last 8-12 years (or pick your timeline), or fairly consistent? Still voting only slightly less left than Gen Z. I believe 2022 was the first year that Boomers were no longer the majority of the electorate.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 08:41 |
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Main Paineframe posted:With every new article about George Santos, all I can think is that the NY Dems have Serious Problems if they're losing to this chump. "No, I never said that I'm Catholic - I said I'm a cat-holic, I can't get enough of petting cats..." "You misunderstood, I'm not pro-life... I'm pro-lie-f'ish."
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 12:06 |
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I think Biden does fine as long as he does have a debilitating stroke or something. The House GOP is gonna be insane and infighting loudly for 2 years mixed with trying to impeach him over bullshit which will probably make his approval go up. It seems like we may have also hit a soft ish landing for the inflation and other poo poo, so we may have a much better economy going into the election as well.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 12:16 |
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Neo Rasa posted:The power station's right there just electrify the fences and not have anyone who isn't supposed to be there know how the proper method to turn it off
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 12:34 |
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Main Paineframe posted:With every new article about George Santos, all I can think is that the NY Dems have Serious Problems if they're losing to this chump. I'm actually impressed.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 12:41 |
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I think Biden does fine as long as he does have a debilitating stroke or something. Your subconscious is leaking again
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 12:43 |
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Gyges posted:Joe Biden isn't going to be a good campaigner. The only reason he's in the White House is because Hillary couldn't even beat Donald Trump. If anyone other than a known quantity of poo poo is the Republican nominee then Biden is going to have trouble winning. Not only because nobody has ever been excited about voting for Joe Biden, but because he was already deep into a Reagan speed run in 2020. Reagan won 49 states in his re-election campaign after everyone assumed he was dead in the water in 1982, so probably not the best example there. The good/horrifying thing is that turnout seems to be remarkably high in every election for the last 5 years and candidates for President all seem to do about the same because people just vote their partisan leanings.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 14:27 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Reagan won 49 states in his re-election campaign after everyone assumed he was dead in the water in 1982, so probably not the best example there. also turn out wasn't great in the midterms and the GOP only barely won the house(thanks NY dems) because the GOP lost the suburbs and moderates in a year the should have won them. milenials are now late 20s to early 40s so they are actually voting more, which is nice.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 14:30 |
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also turn out wasn't great in the midterms and the GOP only barely won the house(thanks NY dems) because the GOP lost the suburbs and moderates in a year the should have won them. milenials are now late 20s to early 40s so they are actually voting more, which is nice. 2022 turnout was lower than 2018, but still the second highest modern turnout for a midterm election.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 14:35 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:2022 turnout was lower than 2018, but still the second highest modern turnout for a midterm election. What's the definition of "modern" here, and what distinguished the "modern" period from the pre-modern?
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 14:55 |
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Judgy Fucker posted:What's the definition of "modern" here, and what distinguished the "modern" period from the pre-modern? Last 50 years or so. Just making that distinction because technically there are midterms in the 1800's and early 1900's with ~80% turnout due to the fact that almost none of the population was an "eligible voter."
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 15:05 |
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Judgy Fucker posted:What's the definition of "modern" here, and what distinguished the "modern" period from the pre-modern? For a little more detail, 2022 turnout seems really close 1960s midterms though conflicting sources make it hard for me to say if its higher or not on a quick google. But that's still before the 26th amendment increased the voting pool by adding (low-turnout) 18-20 year olds. It's much higher than the decades surrounding the 1960s mini-peak though. If you want to to back before then, you're looking at the 1912 midterms, which were when eligible voters were effectively just white men.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 16:29 |
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PT6A posted:No one looks at a hurricane and says "oh it's a bit of rain, what are you complaining about???" My family and friends use hurricanes as an excuse to throw a house party/sleepover. I have personally witnessed a Hurricane rip through Pensacola from a lounging chair on my front lawn while my dad was grilling under tree cover so the burgers didn't get rained on. Floridians 100% do not fear hurricanes. We board up our windows, tape our glass, and then write up BOYB and BYOTP rules for anyone who wants to visit.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 17:42 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Reagan won 49 states in his re-election campaign after everyone assumed he was dead in the water in 1982, so probably not the best example there.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 17:58 |
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Presto posted:That was partially because the Dems ran Walter Mondale, who was... not a good candidate. Was he, or was Reagan just really popular? I thought he was just like a boring generic democrat
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 21:32 |
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pencilhands posted:Was he, or was Reagan just really popular? I thought he was just like a boring generic democrat It seems like it's both. Reagan was a popular incumbent at the time, but Mondale and his campaign have been accused of all sorts of issues and failings as well. Like McGovern before him, though, his loss almost immediately became part of the larger ideological debate over the direction of the Democratic Party, so there isn't really a clear consensus for why McGovern lost. Charisma probably played a role, though. Reagan spent decades as an actor and knew how to handle a TV camera, while Mondale only spent a couple years as a lawyer before entering politics.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 21:55 |
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I mean Nixon in 1972 was pre-Watergate and hadn't really taken a popularity nosedive. There was also plenty of campaign fuckery from CREEP besides just Watergate itself, so who knows.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 22:06 |
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Main Paineframe posted:It seems like it's both. Reagan was a popular incumbent at the time, but Mondale and his campaign have been accused of all sorts of issues and failings as well. Like McGovern before him, though, his loss almost immediately became part of the larger ideological debate over the direction of the Democratic Party, so there isn't really a clear the Dems were in actuall disaray since the implosion of the new dealers and the JFK/LBJ wing and were so until clinton and the third way brough them out of the wood. now we are slowly seeing the same poo poo happen with the GOP that happened to the dems, but we will see. https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1607857443962224643
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 22:54 |
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Libs of TikTok Chaya Raichik revealed her face on Tucker Carlson's app and ,by the end of the day, she has been placed at Jan 6th...https://twitter.com/mattxiv/status/1607840047079768064?t=QO6IkIk9HFqIE8m6lgQhXg&s=19 Her original personal account had tweets regarding J6 which were deleted and only found by going thru Archive.org links, but I guess this confirms them.
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 22:54 |
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Young Freud posted:Libs of TikTok Chaya Raichik revealed her face on Tucker Carlson's app and ,by the end of the day, she has been placed at Jan 6th...https://twitter.com/mattxiv/status/1607840047079768064?t=QO6IkIk9HFqIE8m6lgQhXg&s=19 He revealing her face also confirms basically everything in this deep dive report done on her manufactured rise to power under the guidance of The Babylon Bee's Seth Dillon: https://twitter.com/ChudsOfTikTok/status/1602460339119038471
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# ? Dec 27, 2022 23:17 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 03:59 |
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Young Freud posted:Libs of TikTok Chaya Raichik revealed her face on Tucker Carlson's app and ,by the end of the day, she has been placed at Jan 6th...https://twitter.com/mattxiv/status/1607840047079768064?t=QO6IkIk9HFqIE8m6lgQhXg&s=19 Looks like the tweet was deleted
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# ? Dec 28, 2022 00:04 |