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None of the ways Bakhmut can be taken like other cities were taken in this war are currently available to the Russians. -Bombing with airpower like Azovstal cannot be done without huge losses due to air defense. And while men can be (for now) replaced, planes cannot. -Firing 50,000 artillery rounds per day like Popsana cannot be done as the ammo dumps needed for that will be targeted. If the actual ammo/tubes are even there at all is a question to remain open for now but without creating huge stockpiles close to the firing units such a volume of fire is not possible -Concentrating the required many-to-one ration in forces like Kharkiv cannot be done without being struck either in the assembly areas or on the march to the frontline. Assembling such a force in secret is not possible with so many NATO and SBU eyes on the area. -Cutting off the defenders supply to force them to abandon the area or get starved like Kherson is not possible due to a lack of constricting terrain and the lack of precision long range weapons. All the Shaheds in the world cannot really affect the units there or drop bridges like it can affect vulnerable and unmoving infrastructure. Sending in a hundred men each day to die can be seen to Russia as a small price to pay for tying down a large number of Ukrainian troops and then stretch out the conflict until something happens that changes everything. The often predicted collapse of Western support is maybe what they are hoping for but we may have reached the point where even that would not be the instant victory Russia hopes for.
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Jan 5, 2023 10:39
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Pook Good Mook posted:Has Russia just given up on Bakhmut then? I can't remember the last update that came from that area. They are concentrating on trying to outflank Soledar at the moment (north of Bakhmut), it helps protect the northern supply route to Bakhmut (there's another supply route from the west as well), take Soledar and they can eventually attack Bakhmut from two sides... capturing it is a completely different story.
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Jan 5, 2023 11:06
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I big problem for both sides is that Bakhmut (and surrounding areas) have been a giant mud pit since late fall. Moving heavy vehicles offroad could lead to you exposing weak points, or getting stuck in the mud and then blown up by artillery after some drone spots you. So your safest bet if you want to advance is to do so on foot and small numbers, which is also a bad idea when the enemy has thermals and/or drones everywhere. Temps seem to be dropping the next few weeks, if the ground hardens properly we may see things open up.
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Jan 5, 2023 11:23
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What is mounted on that last, red one? A rocket pod of some sort?
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Jan 5, 2023 14:18
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bird food bathtub posted:What is mounted on that last, red one? A rocket pod of some sort? Yes. UB-32 rocket pod, commonly used on the Hind helicopter. As seen in Libya and Syria.
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Jan 5, 2023 14:22
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Dumbfire rocket pod, usually on helicopters and ground attack aircraft, at least back in the day probably not used in modern militaries now.
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Jan 5, 2023 14:24
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January 3-5 round-up No deep dives today. Regular news: Zaluzhny says the most difficult area is Soledar-Bakhmut-Mayorsk. https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/pfbid0S7PtSZpicgZnWpMa5Fae3853kAu5QqQpuvQGMBcyX3qPTC3CEgdSZdkQuDthQ6fzl Budanov says that Ukraine plans a major spring offensive, with March being the alleged expected hottest month of fighting. https://abcnews.go.com/International/expect-strikes-deeper-deeper-russia-ukraines-spy-chief/story?id=96127220 France has pledged AMX-10 and Bastion vehicles for Ukraine. No details on numbers or timelines. https://www.ft.com/content/df87839b-a7cc-445e-9672-1a225b7b8148 Russia blames soldiers dead in Makiivka artillery strike for using cellphones. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64159045 Libluini posted:Haven't seen this yet in the thread: Ukraine says that they've struck more targets in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblast's in a fashion similar to Makiivka, but the evidence is not quite overflowing. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-strikes.html According to the ministry of economics, Ukraine's GDP did contract by 30.4% in 2022. https://censor.net/ru/news/3391399/ekonomika_ukrainy_sokratilas_na_304_eto_samoe_bolshoe_padenie_za_vremya_nezavisimosti_minekonomiki NYT has a fairly  piece on sexual violence under Russian occupation. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/world/europe/ukraine-sexual-violence-russia.html2 Ukrainian satellites launched on the recent SpaceX mission, including an Earth survey one (non-military, nominally at least). https://ru.interfax.com.ua/news/general/882360.html Bakhmut reportedly 60% destroyed. https://censor.net/ru/news/3391349/bahmut_razrushen_bolee_chem_na_60_kirilenko Banks will be serving draft notices now, in particular to debtors. The Gazprom statement is pretty funny. https://t.me/msk_gde/3561 A bit sad end-of-year summary from a human rights lawyer. https://t.me/pchikov/5351 Russia might be taking Belarus vehicles. https://rochanconsulting.substack.com/p/satellite-imagery-analysis-969th-380 Turns out that Shaheds have a pile of Western parts in them. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/iranian-drone-parts-13-us-companies-ukraine-russia/index.html Rostov air defence was firing on the night to the 4th of January. https://t.me/privet_rostov_ru/14333 Other summaries: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-3-4 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-2-3 (they say that the last prisoner exchange was not 1:1) https://zona.media/chronicle/316 https://zona.media/chronicle/315 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-31-jan-2 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-3-2023
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Jan 5, 2023 15:14
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mlmp08 posted:Nah. I bet Russia takes it eventually. They’ve been reportedly encroaching slowly into suburbs. My bet is that Russia keeps pushing there until an Ukrainian offensive somewhere else (probably north of it) makes the effort unviable and they just leave. Izium-> Barvinkove style.
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Jan 5, 2023 15:53
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Russia claims to have declared a 36 hour Christmas truce in Ukraine on 6th-7th January and are asking Ukraine to join the declaration so people can go to church. This follows a public request from Moscow's patriarch Kirill. -Yle via Reuters and AFP Such noble gesture, shows that Putin is a true defender of Christian faith! Bombing civilians will resume on Sunday!
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Jan 5, 2023 17:00
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It’s a truce, everyone go collect in your churches at this specific time. It fine, trust me.
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Jan 5, 2023 17:09
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Nenonen posted:Russia claims to have declared a 36 hour Christmas truce in Ukraine on 6th-7th January and are asking Ukraine to join the declaration so people can go to church. This follows a public request from Moscow's patriarch Kirill. -Yle via Reuters and AFP Given that the exact date of Christmas is such a politically meaningful topic as mentioned earlier, this is honestly an interesting move. If Ukraine agrees to the truce, that's tacitly accepting the January Christmas and something that can be spun internally as indicative of the underlying Russian brotherhood that justifies annexation, as well as potentially causing minor Ukrainian political unrest at people who want to celebrate the Latin Christmas now. If they don't, Russia can paint them as anti-Christian and/or Russophobes and/or anti-peace. The question of whether or not Russia will actually respect the truce adds a further complication to Ukrainian decision-making, on top of any strategic questions over the value of a Christmas truce for Ukraine. It's not exactly a massive deal or anything but it seems to be a bit of a clever "heads I win tails you lose" move on Russia's part, especially given that strategically I doubt Russia loses much from a 36 hour truce.
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Jan 5, 2023 17:33
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Tomn posted:Given that the exact date of Christmas is such a politically meaningful topic as mentioned earlier, this is honestly an interesting move. If Ukraine agrees to the truce, that's tacitly accepting the January Christmas and something that can be spun internally as indicative of the underlying Russian brotherhood that justifies annexation. If they don't, Russia can paint them as anti-Christian and/or Russophobes and/or anti-peace. The question of whether or not Russia will actually respect the truce adds a further complication to Ukrainian decision-making, on top of any strategic questions over the value of a Christmas truce for Ukraine. It's not exactly a massive deal or anything but it seems to be a bit of a clever "heads I win tails you lose" move on Russia's part. Russia is already painting them as anti-Christian, anti-peace Russophobes. Best move is to not give a poo poo what Russia might say and continue to send shells down range until they leave.
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Jan 5, 2023 17:34
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Bel Shazar posted:Russia is already painting them as anti-Christian, anti-peace Russophobes. Best move is to not give a poo poo what Russia might say and continue to send shells down range until they leave. Ya I'd just ignore them. Russia didn't stop the fighting on Dec. 25 so gently caress em.
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Jan 5, 2023 17:40
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So there's a 100% chance Russian will be attacking and bombing civilians during that timeframe?
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Jan 5, 2023 17:46
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Cocaine Bear posted:So there's a 100% chance Russian will be attacking and bombing civilians during that timeframe? Yes, and mostly churches.
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Jan 5, 2023 18:16
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Cocaine Bear posted:So there's a 100% chance Russian will be attacking and bombing civilians during that timeframe? They're gonna bomb their own churches and blame Ukraine.
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Jan 5, 2023 18:31
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Zelensky's advisor's comment is not promising for a Christmas truce  https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1611028379771482118  
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Jan 5, 2023 18:38
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Phoneposting, so I'll edit in a link later, things start moving on the Western front: France, USA and Germany had a talk and now Marders are also on the table. When and how many is still unknown, though Edit: Germany thinks about delivering Marder to Ukraine. Supposedly already coordinated with French and US deliveries. Libluini fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Jan 5, 2023 |
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Jan 5, 2023 18:54
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Icon Of Sin posted:Idk, there’s a Stryker infantry-carrier variant that strips out everything to stick a turret with a 105mm cannon (same as an Abrams) on the drat thing, and all the internals to support it/store ammo. The US Army is getting rid of them, but is simultaneously upgrading a lot of Strykers with 30mm autocannon turret. The next-generation Bradley replacement has a 30mm autocannon specified as a minimum. The Army would like at least a path to a 40mm or 50mm autocannon. I think what's going on is that we want larger shells so that an autocannon turret can serve multiple purposes: anti-armor, anti-personnel, and anti-drone/aircraft. Larger shells make that a lot easier. Why this matters for Ukraine? Having a clear path for what comes after the Bradley may make it an even easier internal sell to ship Ukraine lots of them, even if the actual procurement is years away.
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Jan 5, 2023 19:21
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Libluini posted:Phoneposting, so I'll edit in a link later, things start moving on the Western front: France, USA and Germany had a talk and now Marders are also on the table. When and how many is still unknown, though This article suggests it could be either Marders or Leopard 2s.
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Jan 5, 2023 20:24
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1611074141213392897 https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1611074578855387139 Germany: actually helping a lot, but still managing to make themselves look like followers to France leading.
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Jan 5, 2023 20:34
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https://twitter.com/RegSprecher/status/1611073508691304449 Marders are confirmed. Also one Patriot system.
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Jan 5, 2023 20:34
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What's the training time like for these new AFVs? Time frame they could realistically be deployed at the front?
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Jan 5, 2023 20:58
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Ynglaur posted:The US Army is getting rid of them, but is simultaneously upgrading a lot of Strykers with 30mm autocannon turret. IIRC, the Bushmaster Mk44 has wide acceptance on numerous ground platforms, such as the MOWAG Piranha (which the Stryker is based of off), and is convertible between a 30mm and 40mm rounds. It's not out of the realm of possibility they use that for the next-gen IFV.
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Jan 5, 2023 21:13
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saratoga posted:What's the training time like for these new AFVs? Time frame they could realistically be deployed at the front? For troops to start using them is 3-4 weeks, maintenance crews to properly fix them up 3-4 months as a rough guess.
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Jan 5, 2023 21:13
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Scratch Monkey posted:This article suggests it could be either Marders or Leopard 2s. Yeah, but it's The Guardian. Leo-2s are definitely not on the table, despite what the dastardly English are fantasizing about.  Edit: After reading the article, nothing in it says Germany thinks about sending Leo-2s. It is just restating what we already know: Ukraine wants them, Germany has to agree even if the Leo-2s come from another country, and Scholz doesn't want to, so nothing changes there. The only way I can see this changing is if France and the US pull another stunt like this and send Abrams and Leclercs next, because like in this instance, he'd look stupid if he doesn't follow suit because of his dumb "please, you go first"-stance. Libluini fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Jan 5, 2023 |
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Jan 5, 2023 21:27
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We should settle once and for all which are the best tanks by giving Ukraine 5 Abrams, 5 Challenger 2s, 5 Leopard 2s and 5 Leclercs (and whatever anyone else has) and see what's left standing last / has most kills.
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Jan 5, 2023 21:54
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And realistically, Leopard 2 exists in quite low numbers all things considered, also taking into account that many of the countries that operate them might also need them in the near future. For example, Finland has about 240 Leopard 2's in varying configurations; there really isn't that many we can give away without compromising our own army. In the meanwhile, there are more than 2000 M1 Abrams just parked in US reserves. Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Jan 5, 2023 |
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Jan 5, 2023 22:02
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Supposedly there are 2000 Leo2s around Europe, but they are spread all over the place with most countries having rather small numbers (Finland as usual is well better prepared militarily than the average) Also, apparently it's 50 Bradleys: https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1611083178193608711
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Jan 5, 2023 22:10
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The US has 4,500 Bradleys in service with another 2000 in storage apparently. It should be fairly easy to supply Ukraine with large numbers of them hopefully.
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Jan 5, 2023 22:18
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Blut posted:The US has 4,500 Bradleys in service with another 2000 in storage apparently. It should be fairly easy to supply Ukraine with large numbers of them hopefully. It's weird to contrast this with the report of 50 bradleys. I understand they don't have to all come at once but these numbers seem so small compared to what is possible.
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Jan 5, 2023 23:52
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Bashez posted:It's weird to contrast this with the report of 50 bradleys. I understand they don't have to all come at once but these numbers seem so small compared to what is possible. Yeah, that is exactly the point; there isn't enough to give unless its from the endless US supply. Leopard 2 is out because there really isn't that many to give, Bradley and maybe later Abrams, hundreds if not thousands to give away to do the job they were designed for. To tell USSR--- Russians to get fisted.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:00
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Fifty Bradleys is barely a battalion. That few can only be training stock for crews and maintainers.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:10
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Bashez posted:It's weird to contrast this with the report of 50 bradleys. I understand they don't have to all come at once but these numbers seem so small compared to what is possible. Yeah, I really don’t understand this. Trickling equipment into Ukraine like this does not seem sufficient to force a breakthrough and instead might lead to both sides being evenly matched. Risking a static conflict with lots of attrition and very little gain, that drags on for years. Just give them the tanks.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:12
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Almost certainly has to do with training capacity and the overall size of the logistics pipeline + limitations on how quickly you can get them out of storage and running again. I'd be incredibly surprised if it is only 50 bradleys ever.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:16
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Why this piecemeal support? Its like ripping a bandage off very slowly. Is it that they are scared of nuclear war or do they want a settlement that leaves Crimea with Russia? Or do they hope that the problem will solve itself in Russia internally? Is holding back part of some red line deal they made with China to ensure China sticks to sanctions? Dont they want even the older tanks to fall in Russian hands if Kiev collapses? I really dont understand the primary motivation. What happened with the long range himars btw, is that still held back as well? Thanks Macron im any case.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:17
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what is ukraine going to do with 3000 or even 500 bradleys that exactly zero ukrainians are trained to operate
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Jan 6, 2023 00:18
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Why does this discussion happen every time new weapons go? It’s never one shipment ever.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:22
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:Why this piecemeal support? Its like ripping a bandage off very slowly. Is it that they are scared of nuclear war or do they want a settlement that leaves Crimea with Russia? Or do they hope that the problem will solve itself in Russia internally? Is holding back part of some red line deal they made with China to ensure China sticks to sanctions? Dont they want even the older tanks to fall in Russian hands if Kiev collapses? I really dont understand the primary motivation. The trickle of material support does give the impression that outside powers want the Kremlin to not give up, but just keep on feeding their conventional forces into the woodchipper. I hope the real reason is not that ghoulish, but something boring, like the challenge of setting up training program.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:31
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:I hope the real reason is not that ghoulish, but something boring, like the challenge of setting up training program. It can definitely be both.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:38
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