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Libluini posted:I actually used some, so you're wrong. I even looked at Wikipedia before making that post to see if my memory held up, so you're not only wrong, but embarrassingly wrong. You need a lot of insulation to prevent heat from seeping through walls. There are ways to obscure soldiers, e.g. by hiding behind a heater and not moving, but that's not really feasible to do for long or in large scale in an embattled city, for obvious reasons. thermal imagers cannot see through solid walls like buildings have. Maybe tents or something. They cant even see through many windows. At the very best youll see that a building or wall is warmer, but you wont make out the outlines of stuff inside.
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Jan 7, 2023 15:31
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Libluini posted:Stuff like this slowly convinces me that you actually don't know what "contingency" means and just think its sounds cool. Here's a hint: Contingency planning for training scenarios is not the same as executing them. Or like, do you think when the US is doing contingency planning for war against Canada, they are actually preparing personnel and start moving material around? I actually do, thanks, and do realize that sophisticated logistics plans take time to execute even when planned in a lot of detail, rehearsed, and when everything goes smoothly (which it very often doesn't). I inferred from your post that the German government had forbade even planning. If they did, I would say that's foolish.
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Jan 7, 2023 15:33
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Libluini posted:I actually used some, so you're wrong. I even looked at Wikipedia before making that post to see if my memory held up, so you're not only wrong, but embarrassingly wrong. Real life isn’t a Rainbow Six game. Seeing that one building is warmer than another is not seeing people through walls.
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Jan 7, 2023 16:01
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Libluini posted:I actually used some, so you're wrong. I even looked at Wikipedia before making that post to see if my memory held up, so you're not only wrong, but embarrassingly wrong. You need a lot of insulation to prevent heat from seeping through walls. There are ways to obscure soldiers, e.g. by hiding behind a heater and not moving, but that's not really feasible to do for long or in large scale in an embattled city, for obvious reasons. I am extremely doubtful of this claim. A thermal imager is going to see the heat radiating from the wall, not whatever's behind the wall. If someone's right up against the wall you could plausibly see a very diffuse blob of higher heat but not any kind of discernible outline.
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Jan 7, 2023 16:25
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mlmp08 posted:Real life isn’t a Rainbow Six game. Yeah. I reca ll the early Ukraine defenders using yoga mats being pretty effective vs. thermal imagers, because the foam was a good insulator but that the mat needed to be held off the body at arms length to keep from transferring body heat to the mat, so the mat completely shields the heat signature. I also believe that thermal imagers can't recognize a human thermal signature around 90-100° F because body heat matches the ambient temperature.
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Jan 7, 2023 16:36
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OctaMurk posted:thermal imagers cannot see through solid walls like buildings have. Maybe tents or something. They cant even see through many windows. At the very best youll see that a building or wall is warmer, but you wont make out the outlines of stuff inside. OK, fine, they won't give you Superman's viewing abilities. And I'm not pedantic enough to argue any further on this. Ynglaur posted:I actually do, thanks, and do realize that sophisticated logistics plans take time to execute even when planned in a lot of detail, rehearsed, and when everything goes smoothly (which it very often doesn't). That was a flippant comment. Because I thought you were trolling with your original post. Nice to hear you were actually serious, though.  And just so this post isn't just me dunking on dumbasses like a total rear end in a top hat, here's a video I found about Marder capabilities, for those interested in what exactly Ukrainian forces are getting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbxJYDHUjno (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 7, 2023 21:06
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Apparently Finland and Poland have both said they are prepared to send some of their Leopard 2s to Ukraine if the EU approves it. Both countries have the 2A4 variant as their most numerous version. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/07/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-ceasefire-fighting-vehicles/ quote:Poland joins Finland in backing sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
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Jan 7, 2023 21:23
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This reporting is complete misinformation. Of course it's the Telegraph. Antti Häkkänen is the chairman of the parliamentary defence committee and he gave an interview in which he was open to considering such support when asked, but even then only after major NATO countries take lead. He also emphasized that Finland has to consider own defense needs first, which very strongly implies that the answer would be 'no' because there are no spare Leopards to give. In the same piece the defence minister declined to comment. Häkkänen has no power to make such calls, even his reply was reserved and it doesn't seem like anyone in Finland is seriously considering giving Leopards. I do love this insightful paragraph though: quote:The tanks, which weigh around 60 tons, have the ability to engage moving targets while moving over rough terrain. Technicals ARE tanks!
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Jan 7, 2023 21:42
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The Telegraph reporting on reporting of a PiS-aligned (run?) Twitter user, of course. Considering the latest stunts by Poland I'll be surprised if they part with any Leopards at all. The PiS is no stranger to making impossible demands to implode a deal on purpose and using its propaganda channels to direct the fallout at the usual boogeymen. Elections are in autumn. They've done this several times now. Ring swap, PzH 2000 maintenance yard… and then there's the mythical Migs.
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Jan 7, 2023 21:56
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I was going to say that Finland on this situation giving anything from its MBT pool is a really, really odd idea. We have no idea what happens after this, or in the desperate Russian "we need land grabs"-situation. Finland while not a proper NATO member should be the last country in Europe to give away any modern stuff, we actually might need it.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:04
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Der Kyhe posted:
Is this actually true though? Even before Ukraine and especially after, in what bizarro world is Russia spontaneously attacking an EU country reality anything but the wet dream of someone sitting in a frozen bunker, desperately regretting their military career because they didn't get to be the next Simo Häyhä? Kazakhstan and the other central asian states have actual concerns. EU states do not. Belarus would but yknow Luka.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:34
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On one hand, Kyhe is rather tinfoily. On the other, EU membership is not what protects Finland from Putin's naughty thoughts.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:39
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Is this actually true though? Even before Ukraine and especially after, in what bizarro world is Russia spontaneously attacking an EU country reality anything but the wet dream of someone sitting in a frozen bunker, desperately regretting their military career because they didn't get to be the next Simo Häyhä? Russia was looking into either taking parts of Eastern Finland or Islands from Sweden before all this started, there is a huge amount of, albeit, circumstantial evidence on setting up the "Green little men"-campaign in both. The initial EU response was less than stellar and BoJo going all in with "gently caress Russia" in UK was the thing that started the ball to roll. And there is a reason why both Sweden and Finland decided to go to NATO now, instead of seeing what Scholz in Germany or Macron would actually do, if the EU treaty for helping was used. Because their initial response was less than spectacular, lukewarm at best.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:41
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Is this actually true though? Even before Ukraine and especially after, in what bizarro world is Russia spontaneously attacking an EU country reality anything but the wet dream of someone sitting in a frozen bunker, desperately regretting their military career because they didn't get to be the next Simo Häyhä? Very few people believed Russia would invade Ukraine because it was a patently stupid thing to do, and everyone knew Russian analysts knew that too. The problem with dealing with Russia right now is that it isn't a rational actor. Other nations can't rely on assumptions, only hard power.
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Jan 7, 2023 22:52
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Is this actually true though? Even before Ukraine and especially after, in what bizarro world is Russia spontaneously attacking an EU country reality anything but the wet dream of someone sitting in a frozen bunker, desperately regretting their military career because they didn't get to be the next Simo Häyhä? Depends on your time horizon. Russia is currently a very real security concern to many European countries in the medium to long term. Hopefully that will change, but security policy has to take into account what threats are possible to arise within the next decade (at least), as security and defence policy take a long time to adjust. The folly of short term security policy is apparent right now. With a different US president the optimistic short term policies of most European countries would have been disastrous.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:17
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Billboards in Ukraine, apparently the translation is "World of Courageous People" and then "Thank you for your support."      Reminds me of those WW2 "this man is your friend, he fights for freedom" posters.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:21
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Everyone in Eastern Europe over the age of about 40 has actual personal memory of living under the Russian Empire so you can forgive them for not being too sympathetic for the 'well it would be a terrible idea and after a few decades they'd have to give up and go home' argument.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:29
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lmao I wonder why they didn't make one for Truss/Rishi (it's totally understandable, Bozo did help Ukraine, but lol) Also thanks to Mrs. Metsola for bringing good will to Finland, even if by marriage. Btw. her husband's first name is Ukko. #OnlyFinns will understand why that's funny.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:43
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Nenonen posted:lmao I wonder why they didn't make one for Truss/Rishi (it's totally understandable, Bozo did help Ukraine, but lol) BoJo was in Kyiv like 10 times, and authorised M270.
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Jan 8, 2023 00:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:BoJo was in Kyiv like 10 times, and authorised M270. I can't help but wonder what the average Ukrainian makes of Boris's ousting. Given the situation, I imagine a significant fraction suspect it of somehow being a Russian plot?
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Jan 8, 2023 00:28
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Nenonen posted:lmao I wonder why they didn't make one for Truss/Rishi (it's totally understandable, Bozo did help Ukraine, but lol) Support for Ukraine the only thing BoJo ever got right in his life that didn't involve nepotism.
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Jan 8, 2023 00:35
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Tomn posted:I can't help but wonder what the average Ukrainian makes of Boris's ousting. Given the situation, I imagine a significant fraction suspect it of somehow being a Russian plot? On one hand, in Eastern Europe you will find a conspiracy theory for everything. For example, a significant fraction of Ukrainians believe that Putin is protecting them from a Nazi cabal led by Jews. But at the same time, Ukrainians can relate intimately to a lying corrupt leader stepping down under pressure, then being replaced by more lying corrupt leaders. They are no spring chickens.
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Jan 8, 2023 00:46
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They probably have a right for the wrong reasons moment, thinking it was some internal palace or party politics. Only instead of the corrupt power games Eastern Europe has in weaker political systems, its just the Tories being daft about populism and corporatism.
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Jan 8, 2023 03:20
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Tomn posted:I can't help but wonder what the average Ukrainian makes of Boris's ousting. Given the situation, I imagine a significant fraction suspect it of somehow being a Russian plot? Not really - at the very least I’m not aware to any widespread interpretations worth mentioning.
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Jan 8, 2023 07:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:BoJo was in Kyiv like 10 times, and authorised M270. BoJo took the chance to assume a Churchill-esque figure when the war began while his domestic support was plummeting but arguably did break the ice on concrete support for Ukraine. Also Joe Biden's face is RIPPED
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Jan 8, 2023 12:56
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cinci zoo sniper posted:January 6-8 round-up The airbase is spelled with one 'm', fyi.  vs. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramstein_Air_Base
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Jan 8, 2023 12:59
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Fragrag posted:BoJo took the chance to assume a Churchill-esque figure when the war began while his domestic support was plummeting but arguably did break the ice on concrete support for Ukraine. Biden hasn't looked this good in at least two decades. No pictures of Macron, huh. I understand why there are no pictures of Scholz, but why not Macron?
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Jan 8, 2023 13:00
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Torrannor posted:Biden hasn't looked this good in at least two decades. He faced a lot of criticism during the Putin phone calls phase.
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Jan 8, 2023 13:17
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Another week, another Perun video. https://youtu.be/Q9w17Ne1S0M About why war economies don't collapse (until they do).
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Jan 8, 2023 15:29
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NATO News https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1612079633859592192?s=46&t=NRxJoQEEyhHdeFNnkYLaRA
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Jan 8, 2023 15:43
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Antigravitas posted:Very few people believed Russia would invade Ukraine because it was a patently stupid thing to do, and everyone knew Russian analysts knew that too. Attacking Finland makes more sense than attacking Ukraine. It’s smaller, the useful land is the land closest to Russia, and while the population has almost no similarities with Russians the population is far smaller and easier to overwhelm. In terms of economic self-interest the food that Ukraine grows and ships and are far more valuable to the global economy and world political stability than Nokia cellphones. Finland’s defense is that it’s psychologically firmly part of the west but if Ukraine can be attacked than Finland is absolutely a target.
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Jan 8, 2023 16:12
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Antigravitas posted:Very few people believed Russia would invade Plenty of nations do unwise things without being crazy or irrational. I don’t think Russia is some uniquely irrational force. Different perspective, unwise choice, sure, but rational.
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Jan 8, 2023 16:16
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mlmp08 posted:Plenty of nations do unwise things without being crazy or irrational. Believing that NATO poses an existential threat to Russia based on no evidence at all does not seem like a rational position.
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Jan 8, 2023 16:25
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Torrannor posted:Biden hasn't looked this good in at least two decades. It's also entirely possible that there are billboards of Scholz, Macron, the Baltic leaders, etc., but they just weren't included in the post on Reddit I stole those pictures from. 
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Jan 8, 2023 16:39
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mlmp08 posted:Plenty of nations do unwise things without being crazy or irrational. You can certainly argue that the invasion makes sense within some sort of framework Russia is operating under, but both Macron and Scholz talked with Putin and both found Putin spewing weird propaganda talking points, when typically Leader to Leader conversations are a lot more frank. Economic and social integration was tried and failed. Direct diplomatic intervention at the highest level revealed a dictator who can't be talked to. The invasion revealed that the asessments of Russia were wrong. That doesn't leave a lot of options.
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Jan 8, 2023 16:45
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Attacking Finland makes more sense than attacking Ukraine. It’s smaller, the useful land is the land closest to Russia, and while the population has almost no similarities with Russians the population is far smaller and easier to overwhelm. In terms of economic self-interest the food that Ukraine grows and ships and are far more valuable to the global economy and world political stability than Nokia cellphones. Finland’s defense is that it’s psychologically firmly part of the west but if Ukraine can be attacked than Finland is absolutely a target. Oh sure. Countries don't start wars out of the blue. Putin didn't just wake up one morning, fart and say "hey, let's start a little war!" No, the signs were visible for long. Russian meddling with Ukrainian politics and the rift about Sevastopol were clearly visible since Putin's rise to power and the orange revolution of 2004. So has been Putin's desire to restore Russian hegemony in eastern Europe, particularly the Soviet breakaway republics, and this hasn't been hidden at all. But there have been no threats or demands toward Finland, neither veiled or open ones. Putin and Lavrov have never really shied away from threatening even NATO countries, and with both Georgia and Ukraine the threats eventually materialized.
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Jan 8, 2023 16:58
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Nenonen posted:Oh sure. Countries don't start wars out of the blue. Putin didn't just wake up one morning, fart and say "hey, let's start a little war!" No, the signs were visible for long. Russian meddling with Ukrainian politics and the rift about Sevastopol were clearly visible since Putin's rise to power and the orange revolution of 2004. So has been Putin's desire to restore Russian hegemony in eastern Europe, particularly the Soviet breakaway republics, and this hasn't been hidden at all. But there have been no threats or demands toward Finland, neither veiled or open ones. Putin and Lavrov have never really shied away from threatening even NATO countries, and with both Georgia and Ukraine the threats eventually materialized. Yes, because Russians don't view Finns as their racial inferiors, the way they perceive Ukrainians and Georgians. Of course, it's wise to plan for contingencies.
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Jan 8, 2023 17:07
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SaTaMaS posted:Believing that NATO poses an existential threat to Russia based on no evidence at all does not seem like a rational position. I think this is coming down to be splitting hairs at this point about what "rational" means when you've nurtured and embedded yourself in an information ecosystem based on self aggrandising lies. If you believe all the things RT tells you to believe, then attacking Ukraine probably is rational. On the other hand, how rational can you be if you started believing all that anyway? At the end of the day, the Russian system has produced an outcome that is manifestly disasterous for themselves, so it makes sense to me to call it institutionally irrational even if individual decisions within it were technically rational.
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Jan 8, 2023 17:11
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Bug Squash posted:At the end of the day, the Russian system has produced an outcome that is manifestly disasterous for themselves, so it makes sense to me to call it institutionally irrational even if individual decisions within it were technically rational. If you take that tack far enough, then humanity itself is irrational based on lovely long-term planning. It makes the typical "rational actor" term used most commonly by people useless to take it that far, though. People have made some pretty compelling arguments that both individuals and groups often do not behave "rationally" in this sense, but then it applies to a much wider array of actors than Russia.
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Jan 8, 2023 17:24
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