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Vietnom nom nom posted:There certainly are escalation concerns, and you could argue this is a way to "boil the frog slowly" so that Putin doesn't get shocked into something drastic. I think it's more this than anything else. Think back to the start of the war and consider whether anyone would have ever believed the US would give Ukraine a battery of Patriots. Now we're seriously discussing delivery of western tanks that are currently being delivered. Ramping up the weapons aid given was deliberate because if all you've been giving is Stingers and Javelins then suddenly you start supplying tanks and advanced air defense systems overnight, your opponent is going to freak out and assume the worst. That's never a good idea when dealing with escalation chains
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Jan 10, 2023 21:48
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MikeC posted:https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1612857484049551360?s=20&t=VXepHQiTd4Wz_HY-PIirjA Yeah, increasingly seeing reports that Soledar may fall soon. Fortunately neither city is strategically important and they made Russia suffer so much for these gains. https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1612931237911597056 https://twitter.com/IgorKar03352504/status/1612930590223003658 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1612929505529851904
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Jan 10, 2023 23:01
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1612909092166565888?s=20&t=pS4HqE7u4-demmJaEfGuHQ Like always, побачимо
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Jan 10, 2023 23:33
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Chalks posted:Yeah, increasingly seeing reports that Soledar may fall soon. Fortunately neither city is strategically important and they made Russia suffer so much for these gains. quote:Taking Soledar would give Moscow’s forces new locations to place artillery and put pressure on Ukrainian supply lines that run toward both Bakhmut and the Ukrainian-held town of Siversk to the north.
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Jan 11, 2023 10:11
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Girkin with some curious words on the Soledar situation in contrast to the line from wagner/greyzone/Z media: Curiously, Ukraine is still denying the capture of Soledar, too. rybar also walked their description of the situation back from basically a word to word transciption of the wagner statement to  I presume soledar is largely under russian control and indeed the situation is still hosed, it's just interesting to see things retreat from wagner's optimistic 'we've conquered everything and took the salt mine and encircled huge numbers of Ukrainians' that was the line yesterday. (as an aside, Wagner/Prigozhin have a lot of reason to play up any success, conversely girkin has reason to downplay successes so obviously take everything with plenty of salt until there's anything concrete out) Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 10:45 on Jan 11, 2023 |
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Jan 11, 2023 10:34
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CSM posted:Not entirely true: I mean it's territory so nothing is of absolute zero value. The point is that the city used to be of vital importance since its capture would have put Siversk at immediate risk of encirclement. Since the offensive in the north freed Lyman, all this will really do is push the front forward a bit. The latest map from ISW shows this quite well https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1613006510229164033 Imagine what the situation would be like if Bakhmut fell and that area to the north was still in Russian hands. That was the situation when they started trying to take it.
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Jan 11, 2023 10:43
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My read on Soledar is that it is happening exclusively to cut off northern supply route for Bakhmut, which has after all proven to be a bit too costly for an upfront assault.
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Jan 11, 2023 11:44
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There are probably some carbon monoxide poisoning mass casualty events coming up if Wagner wants to use these tunnels to put the troops.
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Jan 11, 2023 12:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:My read on Soledar is that it is happening exclusively to cut off northern supply route for Bakhmut, which has after all proven to be a bit too costly for an upfront assault. Yeah, it sounds like Bakhmut may well fall as a result of this. It does look like there are other supply routes in though and everyone seems to be hedging their bets. Regardless, it doesn't seem like taking the city will be anywhere near worth the cost to the Russians. If Ukraine start their next offensive before the city falls, it would put Russia in a very awkward spot too.
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Jan 11, 2023 12:35
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If you want to hold a static trench line, you need to spend as much manpower on counterattacks as your opponent does. It wouldn't surprise me if the AFU are declining to invest resources in the Bakhmut front because they are being saved for a counterattack later this year. At the end of the day, the war will be won through degradation of the Russian army, not holding every line.
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Jan 11, 2023 12:49
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I presume soledar is largely under russian control and indeed the situation is still hosed, it's just interesting to see things retreat from wagner's optimistic 'we've conquered everything and took the salt mine and encircled huge numbers of Ukrainians' that was the line yesterday. I get it! Sorry
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Jan 11, 2023 13:28
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Canada will donate a NASAM to Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-buy-us-built-surface-to-air-missiles-ukraine-govt-source-2023-01-10/ Given the listed price tag I imagine this includes the system and about 250-ish missiles? No included news about when it might actually arrive (along with the promised ones from the US as well). quote:OTTAWA, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Canada will buy a U.S.-made National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) for Ukraine, a statement from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's office said after a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden in Mexico City on Tuesday. quote:The donation has a value of about C$406 million ($302.6 million), and is in addition to the C$500 million Canada promised to Ukraine in November, according to a defense ministry statement. Since February, Canada has committed more than C$1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.
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Jan 11, 2023 15:24
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1613185102816722946?t=WGGgRx_Z8ltIzDvBmAYgMg&s=19 https://twitter.com/prezydentpl/status/1613174589156200448?t=bqxmvfjyJqguoL2A82dSpQ&s=19 Polish Leopards going to Ukraine, apparently. Samopsa fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Jan 11, 2023 |
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Jan 11, 2023 15:49
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Seems weird, but expect more dumb stuff from Duda and company. It's election year in Poland, and they don't have much to brag about outside of helping Ukraine.
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Jan 11, 2023 16:05
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alex314 posted:Seems weird, but expect more dumb stuff from Duda and company. It's election year in Poland, and they don't have much to brag about outside of helping Ukraine. It isn't dumb
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Jan 11, 2023 16:50
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Ukraine needs armour in numbers, and that requires coordination between operators unless the USA dumps its stockpile. If there isn't a coordinated release of information from multiple operators of Leopard tanks within the next day or so, like with the IFV announcements, it's safe to conclude that Poland is just playing political games with Ukraine aid. Again.
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Jan 11, 2023 17:15
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Antigravitas posted:Ukraine needs armour in numbers, and that requires coordination between operators unless the USA dumps its stockpile. Well, last time they did it with Patriots, and, well....
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Jan 11, 2023 17:19
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They bravely demanded Germany send its troops into Ukraine, yes. I remember.
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Jan 11, 2023 17:22
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alex314 posted:Seems weird, but expect more dumb stuff from Duda and company. It's election year in Poland, and they don't have much to brag about outside of helping Ukraine. Dumb or not dumb, Duda has broken the ice on western tanks donated to Ukraine. Now other countries can donate without being the first to "escalate".
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Jan 11, 2023 17:23
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Once again Germans are terrified that somebody is going to change the paradigm and they are going to be expected to chip in when everybody else does. Happened before with every other class of equipment, along with the impotent pleas of "but think of the logistics! Supply chain! Interoperability!"
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Jan 11, 2023 17:24
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To be fair, 'logistics', 'supply chains' and 'interoperability' are all factors that the German leadership in 1941 chose to stick their fingers in their ears about when planning Operation Barbarossa. Sometimes good lessons get learned too well.
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Jan 11, 2023 17:47
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Honestly I think just throwing one company in is mostly a proof-of-concept kind of deal. Train the crews, figure out maintenance and supply, see how it integrates with the rest of the gear and so on before people start committing to sending in more.
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Jan 11, 2023 17:54
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Some interesting thoughts on the current Soledar situation that imply it may be less dire than it seems https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1613196635877834757 Also some reports of Ukraine turning up the heat on Russians there https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1613197109829996544 Seems plausible that Russia may not have enough steam to complete the Soledar operation and proceed towards Bakhmut
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Jan 11, 2023 18:09
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Spanish Defense Minister states in interview with Spanish ambassadors that efforts to support Ukraine with arms are still being vetoed by the Swiss. The minister did not specify exactly what material is being blocked. I believe one previous Swiss poster mentioned this was a component of the Swiss constitution—a requirement that their arms not be sent to active conflicts—which they remained in favor of. https://switzerlandtimes.ch/world/switzerland-blocks-spanish-arms-for-ukraine/
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Jan 11, 2023 18:21
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why would you outsource your ammo production to a nation that constitutionally forbids providing ammos to nations in conflict, when conflict is the whole point of getting the ammo
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Jan 11, 2023 18:23
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What's the point of military equipment that can't be used for actual fighting? Why would anyone buy anything ever again from the Swiss defense industry, other than corruption/backscratching?
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Jan 11, 2023 18:24
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Quixzlizx posted:What's the point of military equipment that can't be used for actual fighting? You can still sell stuff the police forces and paramilitary groups.
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Jan 11, 2023 18:29
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OctaMurk posted:why would you outsource your ammo production to a nation that constitutionally forbids providing ammos to nations in conflict, when conflict is the whole point of getting the ammo Because it's marginally cheaper to outsource that poo poo and besides, it's not as if there'll ever be a real war in Europe again, right?
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Jan 11, 2023 18:30
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:it's not as if there'll ever be a real war in Europe again, right? Since we’ll never actually need these arms for defense, only for UN peacekeeping coalitions, might as well buy from our friendly neighbor that we want to keep on good terms with.
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Jan 11, 2023 18:39
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OctaMurk posted:why would you outsource your ammo production to a nation that constitutionally forbids providing ammos to nations in conflict, when conflict is the whole point of getting the ammo There's a difference between Switzerland making a peacetime trade deal with e.g. Spain which quite possibly has clauses to the effect that Spain can buy more if they need to defend themselves, and Switzerland selling stuff to Spain who gives it to a third party who is in war.
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Jan 11, 2023 18:39
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OctaMurk posted:why would you outsource your ammo production to a nation that constitutionally forbids providing ammos to nations in conflict, when conflict is the whole point of getting the ammo Quixzlizx posted:What's the point of military equipment that can't be used for actual fighting? If I am not mistaken, there’s a procedural caveat of “self-defence” for this.
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Jan 11, 2023 18:40
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Chalks posted:Some interesting thoughts on the current Soledar situation that imply it may be less dire than it seems RU is posting video said to be from inside the Soledar salt mine which would be a pretty decisive victory if indeed captured since that was supposed to be a fortress.
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Jan 11, 2023 19:06
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Chalks posted:Some interesting thoughts on the current Soledar situation that imply it may be less dire than it seems This poo poo is kind of amazing, in a baffling way. I remember reading news articles in 2014 telling how every so often, Ukrainian troops were spotted by Russian drone operators and then taken apart by artillery. It's kind of both dumb and very Russian that now Russian troops are bravely putting themselves into the exact same kind of trouble. It's like some sort of institutional amnesia. 
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Jan 11, 2023 19:09
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SaTaMaS posted:RU is posting video said to be from inside the Soledar salt mine which would be a pretty decisive victory if indeed captured since that was supposed to be a fortress. There were Ukrainian defenders in those salt mines last week so I wouldn't say being in them is the same as being impossible to dislodge. I imagine holding the salt mines will require solid supply lines, which would be hard to establish without taking the rest of the town so it seems fair to say their position is unsustainable without that. The Ukrainians presumably have no intention of assaulting the mines if they can cut them off. The Russians can't spend another 3 months sitting in those mines grinding at Ukrainian positions, they need to secure the town.
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Jan 11, 2023 19:18
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SaTaMaS posted:RU is posting video said to be from inside the Soledar salt mine which would be a pretty decisive victory if indeed captured since that was supposed to be a fortress. What is a fortress that can’t be reinforced or supplied? If and when the Russians take Soledar it will indeed be a tactical victory, but definitely not a strategic one as it is sort of a dead end in terms of being able to make a push out of the Donbas.
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Jan 11, 2023 19:27
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Tigey posted:To be fair, 'logistics', 'supply chains' and 'interoperability' are all factors that the German leadership in 1941 chose to stick their fingers in their ears about when planning Operation Barbarossa. Nobody in the current German leadership has ever heard of the logistical problems of the Wehrmacht during Barbarossa. It's just that the social democrats are terrified of rocking the boat and half of them want "negotiations with Russia" in lieu of arms deliveries. Whether they understand the foreseeable result of negotiating while arms deliveries are stopped and prefer it or genuinely think that the only thing keeping this war going is that just nobody has negotiated hard enough yet is 50:50.
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Jan 11, 2023 20:12
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Tigey posted:To be fair, 'logistics', 'supply chains' and 'interoperability' are all factors that the German leadership in 1941 chose to stick their fingers in their ears about when planning Operation Barbarossa. The argument used by the German government changed so often, that it's just comical at this point. At one time it was not possible to send tanks, because then "German tanks would shoot Russians again", then it was "because we need our Leos for the Bundeswehr", then it was "we can not provoke Russia" and then "only if others do it too" - which is funny because no one is allowed to send Leos without Germany giving a green light. It seems that Poland now just said "gently caress export controls", which puts a lot of pressure on Berlin, because it forces Scholz to either actively block the Polish transfer of leos or send Germans too.
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Jan 11, 2023 20:21
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Need more stuff like this: https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1613244284563513346 (Ukroboronprom is such a post-Soviet name...)
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Jan 11, 2023 20:27
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Russia just had a leadership change. Gerasimov has taken over for Surovikin. Unsure if that is a good or a bad thing for Ukraine long term, although hopefully they can take advantage of the disorganization during the changeover. Donkringel fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Jan 11, 2023 |
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Jan 11, 2023 20:50
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This is kinda cool, portraits of young Ukrainians from diverse backgrounds. They skew artsyfartsy as a group but that's fine. The one with the Tartar (Edie) was particularly interesting. https://www.tozhsamist.com/en/%D1%80%D1%96%D0%B7%D0%BD%D1%96
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Jan 11, 2023 21:06
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