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Donkringel posted:Russia just had a leadership change. It's definitely a good sign that instead of bringing in new people they keep cycling between the same two failures.
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Jan 11, 2023 21:22
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Donkringel posted:Russia just had a leadership change. https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1613270551702675482
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Jan 11, 2023 21:29
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steinrokkan posted:It's definitely a good sign that instead of bringing in new people they keep cycling between the same two failures. Oh so it is the same guy! I kept mixing up the order when I was writing the post and I couldn't figure out why.
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Jan 11, 2023 21:29
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Donkringel posted:Russia just had a leadership change. Russia’s general with by far the largest volume of relevant combat experience just got operationally demoted (his 3-month results are the loss of Kherson and a whole 0 in Bakhmut), and the guy taking his place is the chief of the general staff of RuAF. This is their final boss of generals, bar comedy options of Shoygu and Putin, and you know what combat he’s most famous for? That’s right, posting combat (look up “Gerasimov’s doctrine”), because the guy has no combat experience and was appointed as a political functionary following the dismissal of Serdyukov, the minister of defence that rocked the boat a bit too much with seriously gunning for corruption in the military and the MIC. This is not a particular strong showing from Russia, as far as publicly known information is concerned.
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Jan 11, 2023 21:34
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NBC news link says that an expert in the region is saying the shakeup is for "political" reasons. Does anyone have any clue what those could be? Not saying I believe the Kremlin, but if there is a legitimate political reason, what is it?
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Jan 11, 2023 21:45
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Pook Good Mook posted:NBC news link says that an expert in the region is saying the shakeup is for "political" reasons. Does anyone have any clue what those could be? Not saying I believe the Kremlin, but if there is a legitimate political reason, what is it? One option could be, since this is Russia we're talking about, that they do realize that the guy who got demoted just now is the best option they have, but they also know that whatever Ukraine is planning for next will be another painful and unavoidable loss, and their one good general may not be a politically viable option after more disasters. So they're putting Mr. Politico in charge to take the fall. A couple painful losses later, they can then blame the new guy and shuffle things back to the reasonable option. Comedy option, they know the war is lost and put this guy in charge to be the final fall guy for when the inevitable happens. Then, after the war, they can appoint the real general back into position for the painful rebuilding effort.
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Jan 11, 2023 21:51
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Pook Good Mook posted:NBC news link says that an expert in the region is saying the shakeup is for "political" reasons. Does anyone have any clue what those could be? Not saying I believe the Kremlin, but if there is a legitimate political reason, what is it? Maybe he ran out of missiles to shoot at Ukraine while insisting to Putin there were plenty left. Or he goes to join Wagner as Chief Genocide Officer.
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Jan 11, 2023 21:57
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It's not a good use of your time to try guess why Russia does [a thing] unless there is some clear indication to the cause. In this case, maybe they kept Gerasimov on the side to plan for the Winter Offensive, which will now commence!!! Or maybe Surovikin did such an abysmal job that they let him get a face saving win and then tossed him aside??? It could be just about anything, we don't know.
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Jan 11, 2023 22:12
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SmokingFrog0641 posted:Spanish Defense Minister states in interview with Spanish ambassadors that efforts to support Ukraine with arms are still being vetoed by the Swiss. The minister did not specify exactly what material is being blocked. No, the problem is that the parliament changed the Federal War Materiel Act just last year, to remove all discretion the government had for allowing exceptions for arms exports. Now, I'm pretty sure if a less Eastern European country was attacked and needed the gear (say, Austria?), we'd probably still find a way ASAP and claim there's no violation of the rule of law, but in the current political climate it's not happening and neither is changing the law to be less monumentally stupid. However, for certain governments in Europe it's also very convenient to blame the dastardly neutral Swiss for why they sadly can't supply Gepards, their ammo, or some other piece of not immediately critical, but still useful equipment. OctaMurk posted:why would you outsource your ammo production to a nation that constitutionally forbids providing ammos to nations in conflict, when conflict is the whole point of getting the ammo And yes the law will kill our defense industry in the (not so) long run. cinci zoo sniper posted:If I am not mistaken, there’s a procedural caveat of “self-defence” for this. quote:Export trade [...] shall not be authorised if: orcane fucked around with this message at 23:08 on Jan 11, 2023 |
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Jan 11, 2023 22:58
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^^ E:  Pook Good Mook posted:NBC news link says that an expert in the region is saying the shakeup is for "political" reasons. Does anyone have any clue what those could be? Not saying I believe the Kremlin, but if there is a legitimate political reason, what is it? It’s political in that this is the most poisoned possible chalice for Gerasimov. Your interpretations of the whys here will be as good as mine, that said. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Jan 11, 2023 |
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Jan 11, 2023 23:18
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Obviously setting up a fall guy for when Wagner goes “mission accomplished” and leaves the area undefended
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Jan 12, 2023 00:07
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Pair of good threads on the Surovikin/Gerasimov situation https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1613225252900966401 https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1613249592287453194?s=20 top guy is from RUSI, bottom is from Rand, albeit her analysis has been generally far better than any of the poo poo with Rand's name on it
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Jan 12, 2023 00:27
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Some more news: The German Bundeswehr is already preparing to move three Patriot-batteries to the Eastern border of Poland, preparations for a fourth battery to be moved into Ukraine are also starting. (The last one being the one that was promised together with the Marders.) Also spicy: Despite Poland claiming they want to supply Ukraine with Leo-2s, according to German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit there haven't been any requests about Leo-2s. Though the article is unclear about what requests we're talking about. Requests from the Ukrainians? An export request from Poland? Guessing from context, I'm guessing it's about Polish requests (as that is necessary so Poland can be allowed to give their Leo-2s to Ukraine*) *As the Leopard-2 is a German design, the German government has the last say in what happens with Leo-2s they've sold abroad.
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Jan 12, 2023 00:54
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Libluini posted:Some more news: What actions can Germany take if the Poles just ignore them and ship Ukraine the tanks?
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Jan 12, 2023 01:56
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Charlz Guybon posted:What actions can Germany take if the Poles just ignore them and ship Ukraine the tanks? Stop selling any weapons to Poland would be the best case scenario.
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Jan 12, 2023 01:58
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Charlz Guybon posted:What actions can Germany take if the Poles just ignore them and ship Ukraine the tanks? That is such a ridiculous suggestion
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Jan 12, 2023 02:46
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orcane posted:It's a legal, not a constitutional issue. "Neutrality" is in the constitution, yes, but it's not defined and it's not absolute. The minimum requirements are set in the Hague Convention on Neutral Powers of 1907 (that will tell you how useful it is today) but that's not even what says "no arms will go to Ukraine!". Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. All because we need to fight this crazy proxy war against Russia. Because if Ukraine falls, the whole West will be eaten by the evil russians....right? RIGHT?!?  For example, in the italian constitution (but I'm sure in other european constitution too) there are various articles who clearly state that, as a democratic country, we abhor war as a mean to regulate relations between nations and is absoloutely prohibited for my country to help foreign nations at war........ Do you think someone in the government asked what WE (THE PEOPLE!) think about this war in a distant eastern land from us and that no italian cares about? No way, 10 hours after the war started all jumped on the U.S. crazy train to "finally" gently caress Russia . Doesn't matter if in the process the 4th most corrupt country in the world called "Ukraine" (U.N. classification just before the war) is completely WRECKED as a functioning country and thousands of lives are gone. 1 year is almost passed, the house gas is skyrocket to mad prices and I don't know if next month I'll be able to afford to pay the rent or buy gasoline for my car which I need to go to work. Do you think the government use my hard earned money/taxes to better improve our domestic lives? noooooooooooo, let's spend billions of euros every 3 day so we can keep sending weapons east. 
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Jan 12, 2023 03:09
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source your quotes. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 12, 2023 03:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Stop selling any weapons to Poland would be the best case scenario. Seems like the Polish government is happy to have Korea astroturf their defence industry anyway. Why bother with Leopards when you’re gonna build and service K1s domestically with South Korean assistance?
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Jan 12, 2023 03:46
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Kraftwerk posted:Seems like the Polish government is happy to have Korea astroturf their defence industry anyway. Why bother with Leopards when you’re gonna build and service K1s domestically with South Korean assistance? You don't understand. If a Korean tank has a single screw from Germany – or even if the screw was just invented in Germany, but made anywhere else under a German licence – it won't be sold to Poland. German MREs? German dual use technology like GPS chips? Forget about all of it. This is a catastrophically bad fight to pick, and they will never go there.
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Jan 12, 2023 03:55
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Knightsoul posted:Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. The Italian constitution literally uses the words war of aggression, which would endorse unifying behind the defending party to ensure that the aggressor doesn't see any gains for the economic and reputational damage. Non-intervention outright is and endorsement of wars of aggression by larger powers. every nation saying not my problem as weaker states get carved up or annexed outright and literally rounded up to be used as disposable shock troopers just results in it eventually happening to them eventualy "Italy shall repudiate war as an instrument of aggression against the freedom of other peoples..." is a very clear-cut call to condemn the behavior of Russia in this war.
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Jan 12, 2023 04:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You don't understand. If a Korean tank has a single screw from Germany – or even if the screw was just invented in Germany, but made anywhere else under a German licence – it won't be sold to Poland. German MREs? German dual use technology like GPS chips? Forget about all of it. This is a catastrophically bad fight to pick, and they will never go there. Special focus on the screw part, Germany is tied for second for machine tooling production they have all of the heavy hitting companies that are involved in all things metal forming.
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Jan 12, 2023 04:09
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Knightsoul posted:Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. It’s really interesting how similar these takes are to the right wing social media positions in the US, particularly the non sequitur mention of Ukraine’s past corruption issues.
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Jan 12, 2023 04:18
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Knightsoul posted:Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. You know that Russia can just walk away any time they want, right? The West ending aid to Ukraine would not stop the devastation of the country or its people, but Russia ending its invasion would. So why point the finger at Western aid?
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Jan 12, 2023 04:37
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Tiny Timbs posted:It’s really interesting how similar these takes are to the right wing social media positions in the US, particularly the non sequitur mention of Ukraine’s past corruption issues. And even if Ukraine's GDP was 90% kickbacks, it still wouldn't make Russia justified or the war "OK"
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Jan 12, 2023 04:37
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Kraftwerk posted:Seems like the Polish government is happy to have Korea astroturf their defence industry anyway. Why bother with Leopards when you’re gonna build and service K1s domestically with South Korean assistance?
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Jan 12, 2023 04:38
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orcane posted:[T]he problem is that the parliament changed the Federal War Materiel Act just last year, to remove all discretion the government had for allowing exceptions for arms exports. […]
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Jan 12, 2023 05:50
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the holy poopacy posted:You know that Russia can just walk away any time they want, right? Unfortunately the reality is they cannot. The Putin regime has 2 options. Come away with something they can call a victory, or not be the ruling regime in Russia. There is no going back to February 23, 2022, and they will keep throwing bodies at the problem until one of those two things occur. Western media seems to be showing emphasis on the rift between Wagner and the regular armed forcues, with Prigozhin trying to take all the glory at Soledar and the Russian MoD stating otherwise. Is this side of it being reported in Russia media?
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Jan 12, 2023 06:43
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Dick Ripple posted:Unfortunately the reality is they cannot. The Putin regime has 2 options. Come away with something they can call a victory, or not be the ruling regime in Russia. There is no going back to February 23, 2022, and they will keep throwing bodies at the problem until one of those two things occur. This isn't wrong but it's pedantic. Russia's the aggressor period. Anyone who is mad about western aid or the costs or oil prices or anything are ACTUALLY mad at Russia and Putin. The aid is necessary, vital, ethical, and a good cause. If you want to know what's in it for the EU or the US, this is also the cheapest, wildest bargain for diminishing the Kremlin's power and influence ever for those groups.
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Jan 12, 2023 07:08
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It is wrong lol. People absolutely lose wars without instantly losing their hold on power. Putin's grip on power is, as far as anyone can tell, still very solid. All the factional bullshit currently is specifically over positions 1 or 2 steps below Putin.Dick Ripple posted:Unfortunately the reality is they cannot. The Putin regime has 2 options. Come away with something they can call a victory, or not be the ruling regime in Russia. There is no going back to February 23, 2022, and they will keep throwing bodies at the problem until one of those two things occur. There's no evidence that it would actually end Putin's regime if they withdrew from Ukraine. Hell it might even strengthen his position as the war is not perceived to be much of a success. There is no existing movement to remove Putin from power to even be empowered by a withdrawal. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Jan 12, 2023 |
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Jan 12, 2023 07:15
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Herstory Begins Now posted:It is wrong lol. People absolutely lose wars without instantly losing their hold on power. Putin's grip on power is, as far as anyone can tell, still very solid. All the factional bullshit currently is specifically over positions 1 or 2 steps below Putin. Take Saddam. Achieved none of his goals from invading Iran while losing a few hundred thousand dead. Stayed in power. Proceeds to get his army absolutely annihilated a few years later in the Gulf War. Still stayed in power. Sure there were uprisings and rebellions but with enough of a stranglehold on power losing a war or two sure as hell doesn't necessarily mean regime collapse.
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Jan 12, 2023 07:35
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Knightsoul posted:Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. It's funny how bad this take is. Gas prices have normalized somewhat right now and there are tax refunds out for the biggest price spikes(I got a partial refund on the 5 highest electrical/gas bills of the year). The current car fuel price hike is due to the reinstitution of state taxes which were suspended in the summer to help deal with the crazyness. I love that a giant motivation behind voting the big dick energy hard right party was "we need to stop government theft" and they are now twisting in a pretzel trying to justify their leader coming out, eating poo poo and saying "actually, taxes are cool and good" 
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Jan 12, 2023 07:46
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Take Saddam. Achieved none of his goals from invading Iran while losing a few hundred thousand dead. Stayed in power. Proceeds to get his army absolutely annihilated a few years later in the Gulf War. Still stayed in power. Putin does not instill fear into the populace the way Saddam did. Far as I am a aware no one is being slowly melted in acid, pumped full of compressed air, and then their entire extended families murdered in Russia the way Saddam did to the Iraqi people. Looking at Russian history in particular during the last century, losing wars did not go wall for those in charge. I am aware that is not a predictor of the future, but for a Putin who portrayes himself as this strong man protector of everything Russia(n), his prospects of remaining in power do not look good if Russia is humialiated by Ukraine.
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Jan 12, 2023 08:12
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Avayev and Protosenya would probably dispute that
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Jan 12, 2023 08:18
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Dick Ripple posted:Unfortunately the reality is they cannot. The Putin regime has 2 options. Come away with something they can call a victory, or not be the ruling regime in Russia. There is no going back to February 23, 2022, and they will keep throwing bodies at the problem until one of those two things occur. Even if putin believes this to be true, that's still two choices, not one. Putin * could* withdraw.
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Jan 12, 2023 08:18
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Knightsoul posted:All because we need to fight this crazy proxy war against Russia. Because if Ukraine falls, the whole West will be eaten by the evil russians....right? RIGHT?!? No, this was not the threat hung over the heads of western nations. The simple fact of the matter is that there was apparently a level of military aggression that russia could commit to that actually obligated a large amount of the world to action against them, and since that day they've continued to do things which keep that level of obligation mostly consistent and long-term (constant, breathtaking warcrimes, etc) russia also doesn't help things for themselves by making this about the easiest money ever spent to counter russia as a geopolitical rival
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Jan 12, 2023 10:04
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Dick Ripple posted:
To the contrary, this is exactly backwards. 1905 didn't do poo poo to Bloody Nicky, and in 1917, the ones that signed a humiliating peace were the... Bolsheviks. What didn't go well was staying in a losing war.
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Jan 12, 2023 11:43
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Knightsoul posted:Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. Kicking the living poo poo out of Russia does significantly and materially improve my domestic life, thank you very much for your fake concern, though
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Jan 12, 2023 11:51
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OddObserver posted:To the contrary, this is exactly backwards. 1905 didn't do poo poo to Bloody Nicky, and in 1917, the ones that signed a humiliating peace were the... Bolsheviks. What didn't go well was staying in a losing war. Bolsheviks got pretty lucky with Germany being defeated by the Entente in 1918 though, no one was really expecting that to happen so suddenly and completely, and at the time the Soviet Union was getting drawn ever closer to industrial and diplomatic servitude to the Germans under the threat of direct military intervention. The humiliating peace they signed tore Russia apart and basically precipiated the civil war, which was way more destructive than World War I, and had they not lucked out with Germany's defeat, they would probably have lost almost all political legitimacy.
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Jan 12, 2023 12:05
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steinrokkan posted:Kicking the living poo poo out of Russia does significantly and materially improve my domestic life, thank you very much for your fake concern, though If he is actually Italian, as seems to be the case, then I don't think it is "fake" concern, just "misplaced" concern. In Switzerland I haven't first-hand seen any material difference in my daily life based on the war except that car charging stations are way more expensive. I haven't gotten a 2023 electricity bill yet nor have I seen my heating bill, although we just turned on the heat two days ago so I guess it will be lower than in previous years. Obviously this will vary a ton depending on how new peoples' apartments are and on their neighbors, but our apartment got as low as 16.5° during the cold snap in Dec, then it settled around 18°. I turned it to 18.5° since having the floors stay warm is a huge impact and I don't want to wear slippers in the kitchen or in the bedroom, even if I don't care about the air temperature much. The only other firsthand difference I saw due to the war, besides Ukrainian flags everywhere, is that France didn't have mustard last summer, even though in Switzerland it was on every shelf without issue. Must have been some weird supply chain snafu specific to France. I don't really get the talking points about fuel being way more expensive, like it was historical absurd lows due to COVID, and except for a very short summer spike, it has been more or less the same price as in 2019. If I didn't read the news I'd have no clue there was a war going on 1500 km away.
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Jan 12, 2023 12:50
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