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Knightsoul posted:1 year is almost passed, the house gas is skyrocket to mad prices and I don't know if next month I'll be able to afford to pay the rent or buy gasoline for my car which I need to go to work. Granted in the US gas has always been cheaper, but as someone who lives in THE country that’s perfected not spending money to improve our domestic lives, learn the lesson that your government can walk and chew gum. By that I mean that if your government is not spending money to assist you, that’s by choice and they’re using Ukraine as a fig leaf — I guarantee that your country (without even knowing what country it is) spends and wastes more elsewhere; Ukraine is just easier to blame politically. Were I in your position —and I’ve raised a family making minimum wage in the US once upon a time, so believe me when I say that I have sympathy for your position— I would be grateful that I’m not Ukrainian and focus on sorting out why you feel that supporting Ukraine is the thing that’s making your life hard versus what’s actually making your life difficult (low pay, poo poo job, unfair treatment, etc) and what, if anything, you can do there. I’ve been that kind of poor and don’t envy your position — good luck, internet person.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:07
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Saladman posted:In Switzerland I haven't first-hand seen any material difference in my daily life based on the war except that car charging stations are way more expensive. I haven't gotten a 2023 electricity bill yet nor have I seen my heating bill, although we just turned on the heat two days ago so I guess it will be lower than in previous years. Obviously this will vary a ton depending on how new peoples' apartments are and on their neighbors, but our apartment got as low as 16.5° during the cold snap in Dec, then it settled around 18°. I turned it to 18.5° since having the floors stay warm is a huge impact and I don't want to wear slippers in the kitchen or in the bedroom, even if I don't care about the air temperature much. I was chatting to a French friend who is a GP who started a practice a few years ago and she mentioned the energy prices for her practice were getting quite high (she specifically mentioned the war). She's certainly not cheer leading for Russia so it worried me a bit that the prices were high enough that she mentioned it when discussing how the practice was going.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:12
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Knightsoul posted:Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. Knightsoul posted:This "military adventure" as you call it, is just the final attempt Russia is doing to defend it's sphere of influence. Can you really blame them? lmao (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 12, 2023 13:18
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Dick Ripple posted:Putin does not instill fear into the populace the way Saddam did. Far as I am a aware no one is being slowly melted in acid, pumped full of compressed air, and then their entire extended families murdered in Russia the way Saddam did to the Iraqi people. There was a study a while back noting that it's not the severity of a punishment that deters crime, but rather the certainty of being caught. If you decree that the penalty for theft is to be drawn, hung, and quartered while being on fire, that's spectacular but it's not going to deter theft if you only catch one out of every hundred thousand thieves to actually do it to. On the other hand if the punishment for theft is three months in jail but you catch 95% of thieves, that'll make people reconsider theft a lot more when they're certain of the consequences. This is doubly the case in Putin's regime because the punishment for being a leader who might potentially lead a revolution is pretty much death via window anyways - from the perspective of someone planning a coup that's pretty final, and the little extra cruelties don't really add THAT much more of a deterrent. The real question is how certain it is that Putin can spot, identify, and punish anyone plotting against him before they can cause him problems. So far, he still seems to have a decent grasp on his internal security service, and that's by itself a pretty good deterrent against any uprisings. Knightsoul posted:For example, in the italian constitution (but I'm sure in other european constitution too) there are various articles who clearly state that, as a democratic country, we abhor war as a mean to regulate relations between nations and is absoloutely prohibited for my country to help foreign nations at war........ It's funny how when the war began a lot of people here were angry at the Italian government because they seemed excessively pro-Russia - remember when they were trying to negotiate carve-outs for Italian luxury goods in sanctions on Russia? And now we got an Italian angry at the government because they seem too pro-Western. Poor guys can't catch a break.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:38
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Regarding Surovikin's replacement, I'm curious if it has anything to do with the missile campaign against non-military targets. While it has no doubt made life miserable for Ukrainian civilians it's been burning through a critical strategic resource and it doesn't seem to be decisively swinging the war in Russia's favour.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:38
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Regarding Surovikin's replacement, I'm curious if it has anything to do with the missile campaign against non-military targets. While it has no doubt made life miserable for Ukrainian civilians it's been burning through a critical strategic resource and it doesn't seem to be decisively swinging the war in Russia's favour. It was definitely something he was allowed to take credit for to bolster his image as 'General Armageddon'. Whether his demotion is related to that depends on whether Putin sees the missile campaign as a failure, and it's impossible to know for sure. If it is a demotion for perceived failures, though, keeping Surovikin in any position indicates there isn't a huge pool of high-ranking officers to pick from, and shuffling them around is the only very desperate option.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:55
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Scapegoat posted:I was chatting to a French friend who is a GP who started a practice a few years ago and she mentioned the energy prices for her practice were getting quite high (she specifically mentioned the war). She's certainly not cheer leading for Russia so it worried me a bit that the prices were high enough that she mentioned it when discussing how the practice was going. Yeah, maybe I'll have a different tune when I see my energy bills, although I adjusted behavior in advance so I don't think so. More difficult for businesses certainly, as no one wants to go to a doctor's office that is 17°.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:58
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While a part of it is the war surely, I have my suspicions that blamign the war for the high prices of electricity isn't entirely correct. For instance in Scandinavia and IIRC the Baltics prices were already getting really high during the autmn and winter before the invasion. Alot of that had to do with the weather and climate, especially for the price of hydro electric power* (little snows to melt in the mountains, dry springs and summers, leads to lack of water in reservoirs). The idea that the whole "electricity crisis" as such would be solved if only we would throw the Ukrainians under the bus is not just disgusting, but also very probably completely wrong. *I think I also remember seeing something about how the prices for French nuclear power had shot through the roof, in part because of maintenance that had been postponed during covid lockdown and in part because of similar issues with dry conditions, or something along those lines, think that was also before the invasion. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Jan 12, 2023 |
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Jan 12, 2023 14:05
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Randarkman posted:While a part of it is the war surely, I have my suspicions that blamign the war for the high prices of electricity isn't entirely correct. For instance in Scandinavia and IIRC the Baltics prices were already getting really high during the autmn and winter before the invasion. Alot of that had to do with the weather and climate, especially for the price of hydro electric power* (little snows to melt in the mountains, dry springs and summers, leads to lack of water in reservoirs). Our price problem was with wind generation producing substandard output, as the primary pre-February driver of price climb, but also no one here seriously blames Ukraine for the ensuing turmoil on the energy markets. Our government did enough stupid energy poo poo on its own (e.g., MPC), and so the blame was directed largely at them and at the EU, as it’s understood well enough that we have money to absorb all of this to no meaningful consequence.
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Jan 12, 2023 14:19
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Dick Ripple posted:Putin does not instill fear into the populace the way Saddam did. Far as I am a aware no one is being slowly melted in acid, pumped full of compressed air, and then their entire extended families murdered in Russia the way Saddam did to the Iraqi people. I might be reading too many of the wrong kind of think pieces and editorials, but my impression was that developments in Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union, combined with the already massive morale problems they were dealing with during the 1970s and 1980s, have basically beaten the Russian population into believing that a better way of life is not possible. This arguably goes back even further to the days of the czars. You seem to have a deep cultural mindset that the only way for Russia to be stable and bearable is to be under a strongman like Putin. No one pushing a western style democracy has any credibility or real popular support and the would-be rivals for Putin are probably going to end up going on the despot path too. When you combine that kind of situation with Putin's tight grasp on internal security, I think you get a very low chance for regime change. EDIT: Moving on to another subject... https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1613523519488557061 So does Russia have more control over the Belarusian military now? I thought Belarus' military involvement was resisting any participation in Ukraine beyond letting Russia be a base of operations. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Jan 12, 2023 |
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Jan 12, 2023 15:41
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Eric Cantonese posted:So does Russia have more control over the Belarusian military now? I thought Belarus' military involvement was resisting any participation in Ukraine beyond letting Russia be a base of operations. Russia's Western Military District already has operational control over all Belarussian forces, so I don't think this meaningfully changes anything on that front.
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Jan 12, 2023 17:34
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tehinternet posted:Granted in the US gas has always been cheaper, but as someone who lives in THE country that’s perfected not spending money to improve our domestic lives, learn the lesson that your government can walk and chew gum. Exactly. I've said it before in this thread but if my country (US) never spent a dime on Ukraine then they would just find some other thing to spend it on that didn't help the people here. That's literally the last thing our government will spend money on and it's always been that way. So if that's the case, then I really don't mind if they spend billions to help people from being genocided by a maniac in another country. It's not like that money would ever go to things like healthcare and public transit to help me here at home.
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Jan 12, 2023 18:31
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Charliegrs posted:Exactly. I've said it before in this thread but if my country (US) never spent a dime on Ukraine then they would just find some other thing to spend it on that didn't help the people here. That's literally the last thing our government will spend money on and it's always been that way. So if that's the case, then I really don't mind if they spend billions to help people from being genocided by a maniac in another country. It's not like that money would ever go to things like healthcare and public transit to help me here at home. Exactly. The US is already going to "waste" billions in defense spending. It's almost refreshing when it's justified.
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Jan 12, 2023 19:12
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Eric Cantonese posted:I might be reading too many of the wrong kind of think pieces and editorials, but my impression was that developments in Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union, combined with the already massive morale problems they were dealing with during the 1970s and 1980s, have basically beaten the Russian population into believing that a better way of life is not possible. IIRC, part of Putin's anger with post-Maidan Ukraine was that a Ukrainians were beginning to have a better life, despite all of the similarities with Russia. If Ukrainians can have a better way of life, that's an existential threat to Putin.
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Jan 12, 2023 19:19
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Knightsoul posted:Just look around tv channels in the West for a few hours and you'll notice hypocrisy everywhere: constitutions are being thrown in the toilets and their articles ignored since this war has begun. Remember how France was all like "why die for Danzig?" just before WW2?
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Jan 12, 2023 19:45
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January 10-12 round-up Deep dives: A year-in-review for volunteering in Ukraine. https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2023/01/19/ukraines-volunteers-tim-judah/ Regular news: Wagner claims to have taken Soledar, cauldroning downtown area. https://t.me/concordgroup_official/254 Allegedly, even with Prigozhin himself in the salt mine. https://t.me/bbbreaking/145314 Simultaneously, RuMoD account conflicted the Wagner narrative on every single point. https://t.me/rian_ru/190950 UAF says "all hands on deck" for its chiefs of staff with the fight in Soledar, citing "difficult" engagements. The language used in the broader announcement is not inspiring that much confidence. https://censor.net/ru/news/3392798/...iya_voorujennyh In any event, the mud season seems to be coming to a close. https://t.me/csources/176171 UK and Poland confirm that they're going to send MBTs to Ukraine. https://www.ft.com/content/092b8894-4441-4747-bfd4-5b21a0c68709 Habeck, Germany's economy minister and vice-chancellor, says that Germany should not block other countries' decisions to support Ukraine, including supplying Leopard tanks. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2023/01/12/7154033/ Gerasimov replaces Surovikin as the operational commander for war in Ukraine. https://www.ft.com/content/3fe90260-485c-433b-9a63-2660951d0bd2 Russian parliament says that conscripts older than 21 could voluntarily consent to participating in active combat, if they've completed 6 months of training. https://ura.news/news/1052616860 Former Shoygu deputy, current parliament member Kartapolov suggest that the spring draft will just expand the age ceiling upwards, meaning 18-30 instead of rumoured 21-30 or current 18-27. https://www.pnp.ru/social/prizyvnoy-vozrast-v-rossii-mogut-povysit-uzhe-v-vesenniy-prizyv.html Pakistan is sending 159 containers of ammunition (seemingly all of it is for 155mm artillery) to Ukraine, in exchange for Mi-17 modernization help from Ukraine. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-set-to-dispatch-159-containers-of-ammunition-to-ukraine/articleshow/96837448.cms Turkey maintains NATO membership blockade, whereas Hungary seems to be over it. https://euobserver.com/nordics/156588 https://euobserver.com/nordics/156592 Just in time for us all to freeze to the death, Europe has had the second warmest year ever recorded. https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/europe-had-second-warmest-year-on-record-in-2022-eu-scientists-say/ Russia has posted its 2022 public deficit, USD 48bn/2.3% GDP. According to current estimates, at the stated budget plan and $60 Urals barrel average for 2023 the annual deficit will be 4.5% GDP, other factors assumed constant. https://www.ft.com/content/207b0e30-da76-422b-a079-82253fb6f723 Ukrainian minister of interior says that more than 30% of Ukraine has UXO problems, and, moving at 50 hectares per day, they may need more than 5 years to clear it out. https://censor.net/ru/news/3392790/polnoe_razminirovanie_ukrainy_mojet_zanyat_bolee_5_let_monastyrskiyi RFERL's new offices in Riga, replacing their Moscow residence, have opened. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/riga-atklaj-radio-briva-eiroparadio-briviba-biroju.a491344/ Russia's ministry of digital development has spent months brainstorming how to get IT workers back into the country. Their current take is to pay all expenses for relocating back and to offer immunity from mobilization. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5759974 Patriot training will commence in Oklahoma, 90-100 people crew for the US battery. The program, being condensed, will still run several months. https://www.ft.com/content/105b987e-9234-44e3-bc24-863913ee417c Sweden confirms impending delivery of Archer SPGs to Ukraine. https://censor.net/ru/news/3392509/shvetsiya_peredast_ukraine_sau_archer_glava_mid_billstrom Canada has announced that it'll pay for a US NASAMS for Ukraine. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2023/01/10/7153906/ Ukraine expected to take charge of the Bradleys within weeks, following a training course in Bavaria. https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/pentagon-vsu-poluchat-bmp-bradley-cherez-neskolko-nedel-eto-vozmojnosti-dlya-nastupleniya Ukrainian journalists are reporting serious wave of frostbites among UAF personnel, and a shortfall of necessary equipment. https://censor.net/ru/news/3392666/na_fronte_znachitelnoe_kolichestvo_voinov_poluchili_obmorojenie_trebuyutsya_spetsialnye_sredstva_dlya Medvedchuk, and a few other people, have been stripped of their Ukrainian citizenships. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/11/world/europe/viktor-medvedchuk-russia-putin.html Rumours of Strykers for Ukraine, possibly announced on January 20 at the Ramstein session. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/09/pentagon-stryker-combat-vehicles-ukraine-00077083 Czech MIC is expanding T-72 modernization capacity. https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/excalibur-army-yaka-modernizuye-tanky-dlya-ukrayiny-investuye-u-rozshyrennya-vyrobnytstva/ Rivne oblast' (Ukraine) government is building fortifications on the border with Belarus. https://t.me/vitalykoval8/9850 https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1613056130497888256 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1612800207221145600 Other summaries: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-10-11 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-9-10 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-9-10 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-8-9 https://zona.media/chronicle/323 https://zona.media/chronicle/322 https://zona.media/chronicle/321 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-11-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-10-2023 (ctrl+f Girkin for some quality meltdowns) cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Jan 12, 2023 |
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Jan 12, 2023 19:49
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Dick Ripple posted:Western media seems to be showing emphasis on the rift between Wagner and the regular armed forcues, with Prigozhin trying to take all the glory at Soledar and the Russian MoD stating otherwise. Is this side of it being reported in Russia media? Yeah, it's the frontline that all the z-bloggers get to actually fight on. State media prefer to not comment, instead simply contradicting entirely to the Wagner narratives. Simultaneously you have poo poo though like public Wagner funerals for someone who was sentenced to like a decade for killing his mother, with honour guard no less.
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Jan 12, 2023 19:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:I might be reading too many of the wrong kind of think pieces and editorials, but my impression was that developments in Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union, combined with the already massive morale problems they were dealing with during the 1970s and 1980s, have basically beaten the Russian population into believing that a better way of life is not possible. This arguably goes back even further to the days of the czars. You seem to have a deep cultural mindset that the only way for Russia to be stable and bearable is to be under a strongman like Putin. No one pushing a western style democracy has any credibility or real popular support and the would-be rivals for Putin are probably going to end up going on the despot path too. Russians were starting to have a better life around 2015 due to increased integration with the West, and instead of kissing Putin's feet in gratitude, they protested and demanded more change faster. Putin said "gently caress it" and decided to start cutting Russia off from the West instead.
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Jan 12, 2023 20:00
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Szarrukin posted:Remember how France was all like "why die for Danzig?" just before WW2? Fun fact: the guy who wrote that ended up involved in organizing the French Waffen SS units that ultimately got pulverized in RKKA's East Pomerania offensive, which liberated Danzig/Gdansk (I think they were about 160km away or so).
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Jan 12, 2023 20:26
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Both Ukraine and Russia have been releasing some funny propaganda videos recently, but for different reasons https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1613616934607810560 https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1613599573955444751
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Jan 12, 2023 20:44
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That tank video is amazing. The Ukrainian MOD estimate of five years to clear unexploded ordinance seems very optimistic (unless the point was that 50 hectares a day is not remotely possible). One of the most interesting Wikipedia / documentary holes I ever found was about the “Red Zone” in France, where 100 years later it’s still unsafe to live or farm due to unexploded ordinance from World War 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_Rouge There’s a VICE short doc where they follow the French EOD guys who take away a bomb truck’s worth of stuff from farmers in one area every single day. So many shells were left behind it’s staggering. Perhaps the dud rates are much lower today in comparison, but hotspot areas might be uninhabitable for a long time.
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Jan 13, 2023 00:10
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Dud rates are better and the volume of shells fired is orders of magnitude lower than ww2. On the other hand we have mine deploying artillery shells and rockets and cluster bomblets so yeah it's going to be an absolute shitshow for probably decades in some areas.
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Jan 13, 2023 00:13
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Well, no questioning it now - the Ukrainians want the Abrams and they'll find a way to make the logistical train work.
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Jan 13, 2023 00:49
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Dud rates are better and the volume of shells fired is orders of magnitude lower than ww2. This. It's hard to understand how many shells were fired in such small areas in WW1 compared to modern conflicts, but for example some of the worst hit areas have explosive per square meter figures exceeding tactical nuclear warheads. At the same time a high percentage of them were dudes, so you have an absolutely enormous amount of explosive and poison gas punched into the mud, sitting there to this day. The combatants in Ukraine have more modern weapon systems that are more precise, but nothing like that level of raw explosive tonnage.
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Jan 13, 2023 01:22
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The X-man cometh posted:IIRC, part of Putin's anger with post-Maidan Ukraine was that a Ukrainians were beginning to have a better life, despite all of the similarities with Russia. If Ukrainians can have a better way of life, that's an existential threat to Putin. This has been my line since before February. In the post soviet sphere the Russians couldn't care less about the Central Asian republics, and even the Baltic countries could be dismissed by being not-Slavs. But Ukraine or Belarus? If either of them started getting better or more democratic, then it might just make the average Russian start questioning the status quo, and that must be avoided at all costs.
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Jan 13, 2023 02:18
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Do you think it's lost on the makers of this video that "Like a rock" sounds just like "Like Iraq"? cf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72XLTfmcaAw
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Jan 13, 2023 05:12
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The German Vice Chancellor says that Germany should not block other countries from distributing German technology to Ukraine. https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-leopard-tank-ukraine-war-germany-vice-chancellor-robert-habeck/amp/ quote:Germany should not stand in the way if Poland decides to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Thursday, seemingly putting the ball in Warsaw’s court on supplying Kyiv with Western tanks. quote:“There is a difference between making a decision for oneself and preventing the decision of others,” said the vice chancellor, who also oversees arms export controls as economy minister. “And accordingly, Germany should not stand in the way when other countries make decisions to support Ukraine, regardless of what decision Germany makes.”
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Jan 13, 2023 06:23
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Huggybear posted:Do you think it's lost on the makers of this video that "Like a rock" sounds just like "Like Iraq"?
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Jan 13, 2023 07:13
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ShadowHawk posted:It's a parody of old Chevy commercials
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Jan 13, 2023 07:49
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Time for another public episode of  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/13/vladimir-putin-scolds-defence-industry-minister-manturov-tv-fooling-around quote:Putin scolds defence industry minister in televised meeting for ‘fooling around’ Just imagine having Vova as your boss. "Hey I just bombed our subcontractor, how are you going to replace them on supply chain? Stop making excuses, get it done NOW! Or do you want to leave through the window? You dumb fucker, I'm gonna release this call!"
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Jan 13, 2023 09:34
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Nenonen posted:Just imagine having Vova as your boss. "Hey I just bombed our subcontractor, how are you going to replace them on supply chain? Stop making excuses, get it done NOW! Or do you want to leave through the window? You dumb fucker, I'm gonna release this call!"
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Jan 13, 2023 10:15
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"Whaddaya mean you can't order helicopter engines from Ali Baba Express??"
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Jan 13, 2023 10:26
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Nenonen posted:"Whaddaya mean you can't order helicopter engines from Ali Baba Express??" Wweelllllll....technically you can.... what you get & when you get it is in the lap of the gods. 
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Jan 13, 2023 11:07
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Russia claims control of salt mine town Soledar - BBC News Russian MoD denied it recently when Prighozin claimed it, but it looks official this time.
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Jan 13, 2023 12:02
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Holy poo poo that is an amazing video that nails American cultural sensibilities — I literally lol’d from how clever and well produced it was
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Jan 13, 2023 13:00
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I have a feeling Ukraine’s media team has more than one American educated member who is intimately familiar with the culture
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Jan 13, 2023 13:05
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Russia claims control of salt mine town Soledar - BBC News I've seen enough RU video posted from the north of the town that I'm unfortunately willing to believe it. Hoping the withdrawal was in good order and the defense of the northern Bakhmut supply line holds.
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Jan 13, 2023 14:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Dud rates are better and the volume of shells fired is orders of magnitude lower than ww2. On the other hand we have mine deploying artillery shells and rockets and cluster bomblets so yeah it's going to be an absolute shitshow for probably decades in some areas. Yeah it's difficult to overstate it. There were well over a billion shells fired just on the western front. There were battles where half a million shells were fired in 30 minutes. It's mind-boggling.
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Jan 13, 2023 15:28
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ShadowHawk posted:It's a parody of old Chevy commercials https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IswbdmpjbnU Here's someone's YouTube supercut of all the Chevy commercials that used it - it was a 22-year run apparently 1991-2013 (and started before I was born). I figure Europeans may not be familiar with the context, but that song and Chevy are inextricably linked in all American minds because of these ads, you'd have to live UNDER a rock to not get the joke as an American, and given the "made in America" joke it clearly is meant for us rather than Germany
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Jan 13, 2023 15:41
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It’s a dumb commercial aimed at “””real””” Americans who identify with their trucks and guns.
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