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Josef bugman posted:Wait, pardon? From what I saw they absolutely were not met with "a hail of bullets". Do you mean some of them were fired upon, because that's true. But to say they were resisted that much doesn't seem to tally with the events as depicted. Maybe Ashli Babbit just tripped over and broke her neck?
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Jan 10, 2023 16:45
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while comparisons to America's Jan 6th are rather inevitable please do not take that as a license to go on a derail arguing about the events of Jan 6th divorced from the events in Brazil, this is the LatAm politics thread.
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Jan 10, 2023 16:49
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At 1/6 there were still insufficient police, but the protesters didn't manage to infiltrate the buildings as deeply. The people who actually got inside had gone around through the back door, while in the front, the wall of police managed to stage a defense. At all the pictures I've seen of the Brazil insurrection, maybe there was a line of police on the street, but by the time people got to the buildings themselves, the police were just gone, and protestors just streamed in freely through the front door, back door, and all of the windows. And then the protestors managed to get deeper into the buildings and they got into all three branches of government. And of course, there were also protestor roadblocks into the morning as well. But that's just a tactical assessment. The strength of democracy side of things is more abstract.
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Jan 10, 2023 16:54
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CameronisGod posted:LOL it's funny to see that Brasil has a stronger and more competent Democracy than the United States. US is a total banana republic. Where did you read that they're going to get 30 years in prison? (not saying they shouldn't or that they won't, I just hadn't heard that part yet)
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Jan 10, 2023 17:34
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Nenonen posted:Maybe Ashli Babbit just tripped over and broke her neck? A hail of a bullet
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Jan 10, 2023 17:51
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Nenonen posted:Lula was already sworn in, Bolsonaro in Florida, and the crowd still took over the parliament, the president's palace and the supreme court. They got that far because the government couldn't trust the police and military. That is not what a competent and strong democracy looks like. Nenonen posted:And were met with a hail of bullets. lmao
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Jan 10, 2023 17:55
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i say swears online posted:the military wasn't involved and their loyalty isn't being questioned; it's the police of the federal district that were totally compromised The military was involved and their loyalty has to be questioned The military was involved in at least 3 ways: - they had been harboring and protecting and activelly helping the camps for 2 months (there are plenty of videos of military personel helping out in the camps and bringing them supplies and stuff like that) - many high rank officers, active and retired, voiced support for them and their cause many times before, during and after the incident - during the invasions, there are evidence of military even protecting bolsonaristas from the PM Lula's own ministry of defense is still being very soft and even negligent about the whole thing and for some reason Lula cant seems to do anything about it
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Jan 10, 2023 18:22
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CameronisGod posted:LOL it's funny to see that Brasil has a stronger and more competent Democracy than the United States. US is a total banana republic. How many high level military officers were taking selfies at the US insurrection? And is that a good thing or a bad thing?
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Jan 10, 2023 18:44
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Elias_Maluco posted:
Lula (and anyone who is not a crazy chud) is dealing with a lack of reliable names. Any ethical/sane person he could appoint to that role would be rejected by the generals, and thus be a minister in name only. Mucio, the current rear end in a top hat, is seen as a 'moderate' because he accepted the election results, but he still believes all the lunatic bullshit about commie danger and the protesters being lovely patriots. Even so, a lot of the military command thinks he is way too far to the left.
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Jan 10, 2023 18:52
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Sephyr posted:Lula (and anyone who is not a crazy chud) is dealing with a lack of reliable names. Any ethical/sane person he could appoint to that role would be rejected by the generals, and thus be a minister in name only. Yeah, I figure its something like that. Its a very dangerous situation I think what happened here is worst and more dangerous than the american 6/1 and is yet to be seen just how much and how deep the new government will be able to punish those responsible, specially the leaders and powerful supporters (businessman, politicians, military officers etc) edit: and if turns out no one of real importance face consequences, and the "protests" keep going in some way, with the PM and military unable or unwilling to stop them, Lula will be governing with a loaded gun to his head Elias_Maluco fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Jan 10, 2023 |
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Jan 10, 2023 19:06
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i fly airplanes posted:We don't know Bolsonaro's credentials to stay in the US but he potentially risks deportation, so he's saving face to cover his own rear end. As I speculated previously.. https://twitter.com/pinstripebungle/status/1612475171348021249
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Jan 11, 2023 11:10
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Badger of Basra posted:I think it makes a big difference that Lula was already in power - in a situation like January 6 where Bolsonaro was still president there’s no way those people would have been arrested And the police that were loyal on J6 had to focus on clearing the capital so the election could be certified.
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Jan 11, 2023 12:45
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https://mobile.twitter.com/FEscrutinio/status/1613224987497795605 They’re gonna try again
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Jan 11, 2023 21:29
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these people seem bad at their jobs https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1613511839626788864
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Jan 12, 2023 13:55
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this sort of street mob stuff isn't dangerous without real political will backing it up, and in south and central america the US has a veto on that kind of political will honestly having a bunch of idiots try this pathetic jan 6th redux thing is probably a good thing for lula's incoming government, since it provides them with a good excuse to shake things up in at least some parts of the security services and put himself in a less precarious position.
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Jan 12, 2023 14:26
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V. Illych L. posted:this sort of street mob stuff isn't dangerous without real political will backing it up, and in south and central america the US has a veto on that kind of political will You're not wrong, but there is a limit on how much you can change the institutions without them pushing back. There were already grumbles of a strike by Military Police yesterday because thei obviously neglectful and possibly criminal chief in the capital was arrested. I hope Lula can root out the worst chuds and negotiate/pacify the rest, but in brazilian history, everyine who bet against them has lost, because they can just make the country too unstable to govern if they want and then back some allied reactionary to "restore order". The actual street stuff is as you said: a mass of confused/bored elderly people driven paranoid by covid and social media, professional assholes and rear end in a top hat busines sowners bankrolling them. Yesterday they were calling for a massive general strike to defend the arrested 'patriots' and barely a dozen people showed, because without their backers, they really are just crusty loons annoying their relatives. That's not to say it can't get dangerous on a smaller scale. We already had several bomb threats, some whch were duds, but at least one that was a viable bomb placed on a loving AVIATION FUEL TRUCK right there in the capital. Radicalized morons with guns, bombs and incendiaries will be a thing. And it's a coin toss if the media will blame them chuds, or go the usual "the leftist government is clearly antagonizing these god-fearing people and making them do crimes" route.
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Jan 12, 2023 14:51
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Sephyr posted:You're not wrong, but there is a limit on how much you can change the institutions without them pushing back. There were already grumbles of a strike by Military Police yesterday because thei obviously neglectful and possibly criminal chief in the capital was arrested. I hope Lula can root out the worst chuds and negotiate/pacify the rest, but in brazilian history, everyine who bet against them has lost, because they can just make the country too unstable to govern if they want and then back some allied reactionary to "restore order". you're right, i should be more clear what i mean by "dangerous": it's not dangerous *to the stability of the government*, i.e. i don't think that this sort of thing has a viable chance of actually overthrowing the state without serious institutional backing of a sort which this kind of action doesn't seem to entail. it's obviously a big risk to individual bystanders and officials who happen to be in the vicinity or who get targeted, and that's bad enough
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Jan 12, 2023 16:49
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Meanwhile in Perú, President Boluarte still argues she doesn't know what the protestors want. More people have died from police repression in her mandate than the total days passed since she was sworn in. Who's fault is this? Well the government says the reason the South is in flames is due to "proselityzing" bolivians like Evo Morales crossing the Frontier and has denied them entry. I guess it's too far South to blame the Venezuelans this time. There's still talk of a march to Lima but Perú is kinda big and the road there is long and lovely. The government has also said they won't allow them in. I don't see Boluarte making It to the april 2024 elections but sadly the body count will only rise until then.
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Jan 12, 2023 17:49
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Well it's on the opposite coast; there's a lot of stuff between Venezuela and Peru. They'd have to do like a refugee raft convoy through the Panama Canal to get over there. The whole political sequence of events that got Peru into its current situation was bizarre, so I think it's fair to be confused, but blaming Morales also seems ridiculous. I don't imagine the legislation is any more supportive of her than they were of her predecessor either. V. Illych L. posted:this sort of street mob stuff isn't dangerous without real political will backing it up, and in south and central america the US has a veto on that kind of political will I've heard of people accusing the US of being behind every coup and uprising in South America, but I've never heard of people saying the US was the one responsible for stopping every coup and uprising before. It is probably going to work to his advantage to be able to levy criminal charges against a lot of his detractors and opponents, but it sounds like the fight over that is going to be long and hard and could get in the way of the administration's other goals.
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Jan 12, 2023 18:21
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Just as in the US, the praetorian guards from law enforcement, and law enforcement is full of fascists. Pretty hard to find people with experience in being cops who aren't fascist sympathizers.
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Jan 12, 2023 20:01
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SlothfulCobra posted:Well it's on the opposite coast; there's a lot of stuff between Venezuela and Peru. They'd have to do like a refugee raft convoy through the Panama Canal to get over there. I'm not sure if you mean the South of Peru is far from Venezuela or that Peru itself is far from Venezuela. And no, Venezuelan refugees don't come or need to go in rafts, they came on foot, crossing the Ecuadorian border. While some attempted to go even farther south to Chile, UN estimates around 1,5 million Venezuelans migrated to Peru. Not really willing to go into further details since this is hardly news material, at least in the latest Municipal elections held 5 years ago there were already candidates for the Mayor of Lima dumb enough to run on the "ban the Venezuelans" bill. As in forbid them to enter the country, and as it should be expected the Mayor of the capital city while being a juicy enough position, doesn't have the competencies to legislate on this. Regarding the current Parliamentary support of the current government, while it might be better than for Castillo at least until now, it's not much. The Peruvian Parliament only directive is perpetuate themselves in their positons, and while this may also be true in any/all other Parliament it is especially true in a corrupt enough system. In theory the Republic of Peru is a Presidential Republic but the way the Congress is set up, all recent presidents have ended being hostage of it and having to constantly waltz the impeachment threats. Political Parties mostly exist as a platform to elevate someone to the presidency and meanwhile get as many seats in Congress as possible, if they aren't succesful the party disappears and the candidates scatter to the nearest or found a new one. Being a unicameral legislature doesn't help either as there is no control outside of the judiciary and you might guess how these are set up. Also, if you want to explain recent peruvian politics I think this image is always mandatory, the current Mayor of Lima, back when he was campaigning for President (he was the runner up after Castillo and Fujimori): 
Ulvino fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Jan 12, 2023 |
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Jan 12, 2023 21:42
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SlothfulCobra posted:Well it's on the opposite coast; there's a lot of stuff between Venezuela and Peru. They'd have to do like a refugee raft convoy through the Panama Canal to get over there. what i'm saying is, if the US doesn't want a leader overthrown in a transparent military coup in their own backyard - and that's what was on the table as a supporting action to this clownish uprishing - that leader is not getting overthrown in a transparent military coup. letting the military hardliners take down lula for no apparent reason other than that they don't like him would be worse for the US than letting him do his thing, and the US really does have a voice in this kind of matter. the previous ouster of the PT was also basically a kind of US-backed coup, but a much more genteel one and almost certainly one which had US blessing. basically, imagine that you get a military government proclaimed in brazilia on january 8th on what are transparently nonsensical grounds - if the US government declines to recognise such a government, it is in serious trouble, and for the US to recognise it would be a big problem, both in terms of international prestige and because the present US government was targetted by a ridiculously similar uprising
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Jan 13, 2023 00:50
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V. Illych L. posted:what i'm saying is, if the US doesn't want a leader overthrown in a transparent military coup in their own backyard - and that's what was on the table as a supporting action to this clownish uprishing - that leader is not getting overthrown in a transparent military coup. letting the military hardliners take down lula for no apparent reason other than that they don't like him would be worse for the US than letting him do his thing, and the US really does have a voice in this kind of matter. the previous ouster of the PT was also basically a kind of US-backed coup, but a much more genteel one and almost certainly one which had US blessing. I'm not sure why you're speaking in hypotheticals here as the US congratulated Lula and recognized the legitimacy of the Brazilian elections without question?
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Jan 13, 2023 02:05
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i fly airplanes posted:I'm not sure why you're speaking in hypotheticals here as the US congratulated Lula and recognized the legitimacy of the Brazilian elections without question? because of the line "I've heard of people accusing the US of being behind every coup and uprising in South America, but I've never heard of people saying the US was the one responsible for stopping every coup and uprising before." in the quoted post, which i took to mean that my point wanted clarification - this uprising could only have turned into a coup if the US were willing to get seriously behind it, which the US had very good reasons not to do. the point being, the brazilian military hardliners would find themselves very isolated without US support - i.e., the US has an effective veto on this sort of thing.
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Jan 13, 2023 02:23
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https://twitter.com/SenatorDurbin/status/1613569842967191553?s=20&t=XhkkZ4vW_KNk2pF1S4etNA
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Jan 13, 2023 08:16
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V. Illych L. posted:because of the line "I've heard of people accusing the US of being behind every coup and uprising in South America, but I've never heard of people saying the US was the one responsible for stopping every coup and uprising before." in the quoted post, which i took to mean that my point wanted clarification - this uprising could only have turned into a coup if the US were willing to get seriously behind it, which the US had very good reasons not to do. the point being, the brazilian military hardliners would find themselves very isolated without US support - i.e., the US has an effective veto on this sort of thing. Not just USA, but EU too. A new lucrative trade agreement is currently in the works and scrapping that just to own the libs would be really bad for Brazilian business life. Brazilian economy did well under Lula's previous terms too.
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Jan 13, 2023 10:00
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Punishing coup plotters is "backsliding on democracy". Good thing the US would never have anyone try to overturn an election by violence!
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Jan 13, 2023 11:09
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i say swears online posted:https://twitter.com/SenatorDurbin/status/1613569842967191553?s=20&t=XhkkZ4vW_KNk2pF1S4etNA I hate this loving country. Also, Luis Arce and Lula are really making Biden and the Democrats look like a bunch of cucks given their reaction to 1/6. Nucleic Acids fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 14, 2023 18:58
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i say swears online posted:https://twitter.com/SenatorDurbin/status/1613569842967191553?s=20&t=XhkkZ4vW_KNk2pF1S4etNA Please provide some commentary or context when you link tweets, articles, etc
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Jan 15, 2023 02:22
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Fritz the Horse posted:Please provide some commentary or context when you link tweets, articles, etc i feel like Posting News without inherent bias gets a better engagement than bursting through the door like kramer and all-capsing that dick durbin should be drug out into the street and shot, and that D&D is the venue for this style of nonpartisan current events updates the tweet usually provides the commentary, as well as a preview pic, that a url wouldn't. spirit of the law? edit frankly i think primary sources should be able to be standalone without commentary i say swears online fucked around with this message at 06:45 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 06:06
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i say swears online posted:i feel like Posting News without inherent bias gets a better engagement than bursting through the door like kramer and all-capsing that dick durbin should be drug out into the street and shot, and that D&D is the venue for this style of nonpartisan current events updates It's a general rule in D&D, and someone reported your post for that. It's always better to provide some sort of commentary or interpretation in your post so it's clear what your intention or argument is. I'm not inclined to issue 6ers for it unless it's a misleading or inflammatory hot take tweet i.e. I'd moderate it based on context. This thread is slow so I don't think it's necessary to micro-manage, but I do respond to the occasional report it generates.
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Jan 15, 2023 07:06
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Also helps to not encourage white noise posting and twitter dumps Party Plane Jones style.
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Jan 15, 2023 08:15
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Just linking other people's articles and discussion isn't discussion or debate, it's dogshit.
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Jan 16, 2023 03:08
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this thread averages just a few posts a day, I don't think there's white noise to be had if I quote an article, maybe even a senator's press release, with highlights, does [b] count as commentary?
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Jan 16, 2023 08:10
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If nothing else presenting whichever article with a starting response makes "caps-locking that dick durban should be drug out into the street and shot" LESS likely because it means you get to set the tone of discussion for said article, instead of leaving it up to The First Guy Who Responds.
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Jan 16, 2023 08:38
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V. Illych L. posted:you're right, i should be more clear what i mean by "dangerous": it's not dangerous *to the stability of the government*, i.e. i don't think that this sort of thing has a viable chance of actually overthrowing the state without serious institutional backing of a sort which this kind of action doesn't seem to entail. it's obviously a big risk to individual bystanders and officials who happen to be in the vicinity or who get targeted, and that's bad enough Right now, the emerging theory is that the army command was herding/protecting the rioters to make Lula call for a GLO, or "Law and Order Guarantee", which basically would put the new government under military control and -severely- weaken the president's authority at the start of his term. They could then either demand amnesty and leniency for their friends, or just keep things rolling to try and gather support for their own soft coup. However, Lula's justice minister Flavio Dino reached the prez (who was away in Sao Paulo) and opted for a limited federal intervention instead, which gave the federal government greater jurisdiction over some security forces and proved enough to clear out the chuds. So he not only did not need to generals to calm things down, but made them look HORRIBLE by being either incompetent (letting the seat of government be taken over) or complicit (helping them and stopping police from arresting them). And already parts of the 'respectable' media are waffling, whining that arresting the rioters is too mean and the government is doing a witch hunt.
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Jan 16, 2023 17:12
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Sephyr posted:Right now, the emerging theory is that the army command was herding/protecting the rioters to make Lula call for a GLO, or "Law and Order Guarantee", which basically would put the new government under military control and -severely- weaken the president's authority at the start of his term. They could then either demand amnesty and leniency for their friends, or just keep things rolling to try and gather support for their own soft coup. turns out lula's smart and good at politics, who knew
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Jan 17, 2023 00:19
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Super fun milestone: the last actually elected officials in Haiti have departed their offices at the end of their terms! Meanwhile, Henry's constitutional term of mandate* is over a year expired! *which additionally didn't technically exist in the first place
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Jan 18, 2023 16:11
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i say swears online posted:https://twitter.com/SenatorDurbin/status/1613569842967191553?s=20&t=XhkkZ4vW_KNk2pF1S4etNA
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Jan 18, 2023 18:41
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/22/peru-police-make-violent-raid-on-limas-san-marcos-university Peruvian police forced students at the Universidad de San Marcos out of their dorms at gunpoint, many in their pajamas, then ransacked their rooms. Sounds like a number of students were brutally assaulted and injured.
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Jan 22, 2023 14:48
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