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A former Wagner "commander" (officer?) escaped from Russia to northern Norway by crossing the border illegally and has requested asylum in Norway: https://www-vg-no.translate.goog/ny...&_x_tr_pto=wapp The person in question, Andrei Medvedev, has previously been the subject of news articles after deserting from Wagner, claiming that other deserters have been executed by Wagner and to have personally witnessed several such executions: https://theins.ru/en/news/257929 Brutulf fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 15:20
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https://youtu.be/UGZi-F3tz-o another week another Perun. Covering use of IFVs so far as well as how eg Bradleys will help Ukraine moving forward.
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Jan 15, 2023 15:30
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Willo567 posted:It's a reserved colonel in the AFU A colonel would not be determining strategy at all. If they are in a line role they typically have a battalion command of around a thousand troops. If they are in a staff role, they’re filling a specific role in a larger organization. It’s an upper middle management role. If anything the colonel is either very stupidly sharing his own opinions, or he’s part of a larger effort to keep the Russians guessing as to Ukraine’s strategic and operational moves. There’s no way this is some kind of tremendous authentic insight.
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Jan 15, 2023 16:34
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Crimea is vulnerable in that its very difficult to resupply. Especially compared to the donbass, which has a proper border with Russia and years o fortifications. I can absolutely see it falling to Ukraine before Donetsk is liberated.
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Jan 15, 2023 17:10
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDDAhb0xIPI This is a translated talk with Andrey Piontkovsky, a mathematician and political writer who puts forward some pretty wild theories about how Prigozhin and others are assembling their private armies for the fight over Russia once the regime collapses. Breaking the reputation of the regular Russian Armed Forces (an unfortunate slur is used to describe it) is an essential step to ensure their position of power and so they can poach officers to defect to one of the new warlord armies. It sounds like something out of a bad B-movie, is this in any way plausible? There are some things regarding Russian military performance that would be explained by inside parties sabotaging their efforts.
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Jan 15, 2023 18:33
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It sounds entirely like Clancychat but then again one year ago the idea of Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would have sounded like Clancychat so 
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Jan 15, 2023 18:45
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Sounds reasonable. There’s no way the next leader will be democratically elected and giving your own army when no one else does goes a very long way. Also gives credence to Putin having medical problems and they all know it.
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Jan 15, 2023 18:46
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CeeJee posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDDAhb0xIPI So far all talk of the regime collapse in Russia is well into the realm of wishful thinking, with nothing of substance to show for it. And plenty of examples to the contrary - in less than a year, Putin has quite effectively killed political opposition, free press, and freedoms of speech and assembly for the civic society.
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Jan 15, 2023 19:20
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Willo567 posted:Do you think his thoughts actually represent what Ukraine plans on doing next, or what he wants to do? I have no idea who he is so I don't know and don't particularly care Just don't think Ukraine is obligated to follow any specific order, and even if they don't think they can retake Crimea right now it would be a good idea to make it seem like they were anyway
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Jan 15, 2023 19:27
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CeeJee posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDDAhb0xIPI cinci zoo sniper posted:So far all talk of the regime collapse in Russia is well into the realm of wishful thinking, with nothing of substance to show for it. And plenty of examples to the contrary - in less than a year, Putin has quite effectively killed political opposition, free press, and freedoms of speech and assembly for the civic society. Watching it now, I don't know how valid the predictions are, but it seems reasonable to suspect that this framework or one like it is a framework that Prigozhin, Kadyrov, etc., might be viewing things from -- that is, I don't know whether or not Putin's regime will collapse any time soon, but it makes sense that Prigozhin might think it will at some point soon and be preparing for that eventuality. It explains Wagner's actions around Bakhmut, etc. I don't think he's so much predicting Putin's imminent fall as describing how he thinks various players in Russia are viewing the potentiality of Putin's fall and the circumstances likely to follow when and if that eventuality occurs.
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Jan 15, 2023 19:29
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Watching it now, I don't know how valid the predictions are, but it seems reasonable to suspect that this framework or one like it is a framework that Prigozhin, Kadyrov, etc., might be viewing things from -- that is, I don't know whether or not Putin's regime will collapse any time soon, but it makes sense that Prigozhin might think it will at some point soon and be preparing for that eventuality. It explains Wagner's actions around Bakhmut, etc. Thanks, that makes a lot more sense, even if it remains arguably unnecessary/useless, than what I took away from CeeJee's post.
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Jan 15, 2023 19:39
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January 12-15 round-up No deep dives today. Regular articles: Russia seems to have finally taken Soledar. https://www.ft.com/content/d759e24b-dd48-4adc-a0ae-7e53b89e5231 This means that we should expect fighting in Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka soon, and if those fall the situation will start looking quite bad for Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut. A residential building in Dnipro struck during the Saturday mass airstrike. Casualties measuring in dozens dead and wounded, and still counting. https://www.ft.com/content/6d709080-edc3-420a-9133-a1953c0da05f Notably, this wave seems to have involved ballistic missiles (Iskander most likely) fired at Kyiv, beating air-raid warning to the punch. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/14/world/europe/the-saturday-attack-on-kyiv-appeared-to-best-the-air-raid-warning-system.html Furthermore, Arestovich has also had something to say abou this strike. Multiple things, in fact - here's him doing a 180-degree turn on his claims about the Dnipro strike in the space of just a few hours. https://censor.net/ru/news/3393462/arestovich_otkazalsya_ot_svoih_slov_o_yakoby_sbitoyi_pvo_rossiyiskoyi_rakete_v_dnepre_ya_chetko_govoril Following the strikes, “difficult days, possibly weeks” pronounced by the largest energy company in Ukraine. Rolling and emergency blackouts in much of the country. https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/dtek-rozpovili-koli-povernutsya-planovih-1673769079.html Public confirmation for British Challenger 2 tanks for Ukraine. 14 tanks and 30 artillery systems for now. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755 According to Politico sources, Scholz is unwilling to follow suit without Biden showing lead. https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-germany-us-battle-tanks-ukraine-war/ According to FP, Turkey is sending American cluster bombs to Ukraine. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/10/turkey-cold-war-cluster-bombs-ukraine/ Turkey and Ukraine both deny the story. https://t.me/uniannet/86253 NYT speculates that all of this is happening in a rushed preparation for a spring breakthrough attempt by Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/world/europe/ukraine-western-tanks.html Mayors of Budapest, Bratislava, Prague, and Warsaw were in Kyiv to discuss coordination on municipal reconstruction of Ukraine. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/v4-capitals-to-set-up-platform-for-reconstruction-of-ukrainian-municipalities/ Taylor Dudley has been freed from Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/world/europe/russia-taylor-dudley-veteran-released.html NYT has an interesting piece about Russians and Ukrainians sharing a coworking space in Bali. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/15/world/asia/bali-indonesia-russians-ukrainians.html If anyone else is following law project 7662, EC is expectedly doubling down on the side of the Venetian commission. https://suspilne.media/357844-evrokomisia-napolagae-na-vikonanni-rekomendacij-venecianki-do-zakonu-pro-ksu/ Ambassador of Israel to Ukraine has announced a transfer of some sort of drone-rocket “smart warning” system. https://censor.net/ru/news/3393086/izrail_ofitsialno_peredaet_ukraine_tehnologii_razumnogo_opovescheniya_o_raketah_i_dronah Avatar debuts in Russia's high-street film theatres with no licence. https://zona.media/news/2023/01/13/avatar According to Sobolev, Russians older than 30, after the draft age changes law is approved, will start receiving summons for mobilization reserve training. https://ura.news/news/1052618017 AMX-10RC expected to be delivered within 2 months. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-hoping-deliver-amx-10-rc-tanks-ukraine-two-months-time-minister-2023-01-13/ Other summaries: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-12-13 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-11-12 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-12-13 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-11-12 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-10-11 https://zona.media/chronicle/326 https://zona.media/chronicle/325 https://zona.media/chronicle/324 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-14-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-13-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-12-2023 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 19:41
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And now for something completely different: Tracks East - Kyiv during Wartime I ARTE.tv Documentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I25_x9GLbis
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Jan 15, 2023 19:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:A residential building in Dnipro struck during the Saturday mass airstrike. Casualties measuring in dozens dead and wounded, and still counting. https://www.ft.com/content/6d709080-edc3-420a-9133-a1953c0da05f Notably, this wave seems to have involved ballistic missiles (Iskander most likely) fired at Kyiv, beating air-raid warning to the punch. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/14/world/europe/the-saturday-attack-on-kyiv-appeared-to-best-the-air-raid-warning-system.html
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Jan 15, 2023 20:13
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Mr. Apollo posted:One thing I’ve been wondering about with all these residential strikes, how is Russia selecting these buildings? It seems completely random. I’ve read some theories online that say that these buildings were all near legitimate targets and the missiles hit them due to poor quality guidance systems or that some high ranking UAF official lived there and this was an attempt to kill them. There have also been some more fringe theories that say that that the UAF is secretly using residential buildings as HQs so they’re legitimate targets. However, I would think that if the UAF was using them as HQs, that information would have leaked out a long time ago. They don't. It's an anti ship missile that turns on its radar after a set course and distance and then flies into what looks most like an aircraft carrier. Looking at a map the building is the first one flying in over the river from the east. https://www.google.com/maps/@48.4187031,35.0689521,3a,75y,283.3h,93.44t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sLNKVIPtbJr4IGoSnKHHFKg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 CeeJee fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 20:30
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If it's indeed a Kh-22, the thing doesn't have proper guidance to hit a specific target inside a city anyway --- it's supposed to do radar based terminal guidance against big warships.
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Jan 15, 2023 20:31
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Mr. Apollo posted:It seems completely random. That's because it is.
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Jan 15, 2023 20:32
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By all accounts, they are just missing other civilian infrastructure they are trying to destroy. Hitting a residential building with an expensive missile is a complete waste even from a terror bombing objective, but transformer stations and schools have the audacity of being in or near residential areas. e: Might also be bascially chaff to overwhelm AD
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Jan 15, 2023 20:34
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They're just dumb enough to think terror bombing civilians will somehow diminish resistance rather than increase it. See https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower-101/
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Jan 15, 2023 20:38
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Surprised it took them so long: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/13/critical-russian-emigres-should-have-property-seized-lawmakers-say-a79939
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Jan 15, 2023 20:45
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Antigravitas posted:By all accounts, they are just missing other civilian infrastructure they are trying to destroy. Hitting a residential building with an expensive missile is a complete waste even from a terror bombing objective, but transformer stations and schools have the audacity of being in or near residential areas. By what accounts, precisely, are the multitude of civilian targets getting hit all "just missing other civilian infrastructure they are trying to destroy"? In what way would firing extra cruise missiles targeting a residential building serve as a decoy as opposed to, say, firing a second cruise missile at a legit target to also improve the odds of getting a missile through to hit said target? Note that if the goal is to do terror bombing they don't exactly have cheaper options to do terror bombing than long range standoff munitions like these - see the results of attempting to operate strike aircraft over Ukraine. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 22:04
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:They're just dumb enough to think terror bombing civilians will somehow diminish resistance rather than increase it. Which has literally never worked. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE6RINU8JLg
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Jan 15, 2023 22:09
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Warbadger posted:By what accounts, precisely, are the multitude of civilian targets getting hit all "just missing other civilian infrastructure they are trying to destroy"? They mean more strategic infrastructure, like electric transformers or power plants. quote:In what way would firing extra cruise missiles targeting a residential building serve as a decoy as opposed to, say, firing a second cruise missile at a legit target to also improve the odds of getting a missile through to hit said target? Kh-22's are old Soviet missiles meant to hit ships in the middle of the sea, they're not accurate or "smart" enough to be much use for precision strikes against some specific target in a city. But what they can do is force Ukrainian air defenses to take shots at them, which gives Russia's more modern missiles, which are limited in number, a better chance to get through. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 22:11
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Nenonen posted:They mean more strategic infrastructure, like electric transformers or power plants. OK, so what sources are saying all the residential neighborhoods, shopping malls, downtown apartment/commercial buildings, pedestrian bridges, hospitals, streets, etc. being hit are all just cases of missiles missing other "strategic infrastructure" targets? If you launch a missile like the X-22 into a city and that missile is inherently unable to actually hit a specific target in said city, is it "missing" when it hits a highrise building? How does it even remotely serve to protect other missiles in the strike to launch 5 additional, older missiles against modern air defenses past maybe causing the defenders to expend more munitions in shooting them down? Warbadger fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 22:25
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Warbadger posted:OK, so what sources are saying all the residential neighborhoods, shopping malls, downtown apartment/commercial buildings, pedestrian bridges, hospitals, streets, etc. being hit are all just cases of missiles missing other "strategic infrastructure" targets? If you fire enough missiles simultaneously, it overwhelms the AD because there aren't enough batteries to shoot down all of them at once.
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Jan 15, 2023 22:34
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Quixzlizx posted:If you fire enough missiles simultaneously, it overwhelms the AD because there aren't enough batteries to shoot down all of them at once. They fired all of 5 X-22's in this strike. Not exactly a saturation attack, and they don't exactly resemble the much slower, lower flying missiles also involved. And if they're actual goddamn missiles with actual payloads on them, actually targeted at the city then they're not loving decoys, they're part of the strike.
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Jan 15, 2023 22:39
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Warbadger posted:And if they're actual goddamn missiles with actual payloads on them, actually targeted at the city then they're not loving decoys, they're part of the strike. They can be both. I'm sure Russia is happy both with them distracting the defenses and with the terror strikes on civilians.
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Jan 15, 2023 23:16
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I think the point trying to be made is that there's not much difference between firing live missiles that are likely to hit non-strategic civilian targets vs. firing live missiles likely to hit non-strategic civilian targets with the hope that they'll absorb some AD so your good missiles can hit the actual targets. It's terror bombing of civilians either way
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Jan 15, 2023 23:17
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Im pretty sure the extent of the Russian calculus is "Fire missiles into city with the goal of killing Ukrainians". Like it's really not hard to figure out.
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Jan 15, 2023 23:45
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Charliegrs posted:Im pretty sure the extent of the Russian calculus is "Fire missiles into city with the goal of killing Ukrainians". Like it's really not hard to figure out. It is if your lens for this war is still rooted in the military and political goals of Russia being separate. As in conventional military strategy and thinking can't explain the uselessness of the attacks since they're a political goal and rather than change perspective we end up arguing in circles why an apartment building got in the way of a transformer.
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Jan 15, 2023 23:58
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Rogue AI Goddess posted:Surprised it took them so long: It's a trick to lure people back into Russia A tremendously stupid one
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Jan 16, 2023 00:39
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nutri_void posted:It's a trick to lure people back into Russia It also clashes with some other recent things, like Putin nodding approval for the law change to penalize disparaging speech against Russians currently abroad (while also seemingly approving introduction of a legal concept of a traitor, and explicitly only wishing for the “loyal” Russians to return). Reading between the lines with what, e.g., VK of the digital ministry are doing, there appears to be an increasingly broad realization among the senior leadership that programmers don't grow on trees. That is causing some uneasy conflicts of interest for the pro-war wing, and for loudmouths like Volodin or Medvedev as well. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Jan 16, 2023 |
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Jan 16, 2023 00:46
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mllaneza posted:Which has literally never worked. Saying strategic bombing never worked is kind of a fallacy I think. Taking WW2 as an example, yes, it didn't fulfill the number one claim of the biggest evangelists of independent offensive airpower, which was to by itself force an enemy surrender. But WW2 strategic airpower of Germany as an example, by attacking targets that the Germans had to defend, their cities and industrial production, force the Germans to devote a lot of industrial and technological resources to this defence, producing and deploying AA defences on the homefront, developing and fielding night fighters and employing hundreds of thousands actively in air defence. This essentially resulted in the diversion of the German airforce from the fronts in the east, west and south, and its gradually being worn down and destroyed as an effective force. Factories also had to be built, organized and placed to best be able to withstand aerial bombardment. The fact that by just looking at pure numbers German war production continued to rise despite the bombing campaign fails to take into account many documented stoppages that did occur due to the destruction wrought on factories themselves or their supply chains, there's also the fact that the Germans were reorganizing their economy towards more of a total war footing and Speer in particular had a focus on just producing numbers of equipment with less regard for things like spare parts and quality materials, mostly for the propaganda value. Looking at the Germans' own responses to events such as the destruction of Hamburg in 1943 its clear that this wasn't something anyone regarded as meaningless at the time. There's a lot of factors you can look at WWII strategic bombing and conclude that it was very effective even though it might be more comforting maybe to be able to dismiss it all as a murderous waste.
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Jan 16, 2023 01:34
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Randarkman posted:Saying strategic bombing never worked is kind of a fallacy I think. Taking WW2 as an example, yes, it didn't fulfill the number one claim of the biggest evangelists of independent offensive airpower, which was to by itself force an enemy surrender. But WW2 strategic airpower of Germany as an example, by attacking targets that the Germans had to defend, their cities and industrial production, force the Germans to devote a lot of industrial and technological resources to this defence, producing and deploying AA defences on the homefront, developing and fielding night fighters and employing hundreds of thousands actively in air defence. This essentially resulted in the diversion of the German airforce from the fronts in the east, west and south, and its gradually being worn down and destroyed as an effective force. It’s murderous waste as it’s not something that was effective in a meaningful way. The stoppages you point to were overcome by the resolve it steels in the population.
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Jan 16, 2023 02:13
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I would also note that WW2 isn't the only example of strategic bombing, Operation Rolling Thunder was another famous failure of the concept.
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Jan 16, 2023 02:23
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Randarkman posted:Saying strategic bombing never worked is kind of a fallacy I think. The Bret Devereaux article I linked goes into this at depth. quote:Overall then, the promise of strategic airpower, that it could win wars entirely or primarily from the skies, turns out so far to have been largely a mirage; in about 80 years of testing the theory, strategic bombing has yet to produce a clear example where it worked as intended. Instead, strategic airpower must be one of the most thoroughly tested doctrines in modern warfare and it has failed nearly every test. In particular, Douhet’s supposition that strategic bombing of civilian centers could force a favorable end to a conflict without the need to occupy territory or engage in significant ground warfare appears to be entirely unsupportable.10 Nuclear weapons do not seem, so far, to have actually changed this; nuclear deterrence does not aim at ‘will’ in the Clausewitzian sense (drink!) but rather on altering the calculus of leaders and politicians through the threat of annihilation. In the event of an actual conflict, the public’s desire not to be nuked – which would be the key target in a Douhet-style morale bombing campaign – appears to factor very little into actual decision-making. No one checks the polls before intentionally embarking on nuclear war or in the minutes a leader might have to deliberate on ordering a second-strike.
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Jan 16, 2023 02:27
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Fritz the Horse posted:I think the point trying to be made is that there's not much difference between firing live missiles that are likely to hit non-strategic civilian targets vs. firing live missiles likely to hit non-strategic civilian targets with the hope that they'll absorb some AD so your good missiles can hit the actual targets. It's terror bombing of civilians either way Well, that and claiming that the laundry list of non-strategic civilian targets hit by missiles during this conflict are all just a case of "welp, the missile obviously missed a legit infrastructure target!" is absolute horseshit.
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Jan 16, 2023 02:42
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Warbadger posted:Well, that and claiming that the laundry list of non-strategic civilian targets hit by missiles during this conflict are all just a case of "welp, the missile obviously missed a legit infrastructure target!" is absolute horseshit. No one in this thread is claiming that. The post that started this line literally talked about a missile aimed at a school potentially missing and hitting an apartment instead. The discussion wasn't "Russia wouldn't actually warcrime" it was "civilian apartment buildings suck even from a warcrime perspective, Russia probably would have preferred to hit a more war-crime-y target" Bremen fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Jan 16, 2023 |
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Jan 16, 2023 03:27
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Does anyone have a good read on if an actual conventional NATO-Russia war would look like a bloody trench stalemate without much role for US-style airpower, or would the stuff America keeps for itself be more decisive? Like is this just what modern high intensity peer conflict looks like now? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 16, 2023 03:52
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Bremen posted:No one in this thread is claiming that. The post that started this line literally talked about a missile aimed at a school potentially missing and hitting an apartment instead. Yes, someone in the thread was claiming that. Antigravitas posted:By all accounts, they are just missing other civilian infrastructure they are trying to destroy. Hitting a residential building with an expensive missile is a complete waste even from a terror bombing objective, but transformer stations and schools have the audacity of being in or near residential areas.
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Jan 16, 2023 03:59
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