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Its no t even you who will fight and die
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Jan 16, 2023 20:11
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Mastered Distancing 101, pretense to be compassionate maybe cry (yes) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 16, 2023 20:15
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One of the most common videos you see coming out of this war is footage from Ukrainian drones showing them dropping grenades on Russian soldiers hiding in trenches. Well apparently a Russian soldier made the luckiest shot of his life and actually hit the grenade with a bullet midair. At least that's what it looks like from this video (SFW no gore) https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoot...nt=share_button
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Jan 16, 2023 20:46
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Warbadger posted:dual purpose sites like power infrastructure This is a minor thing, and I have also posted “dual-use” or “dual-purpose” out of carelessness, but there’s no such thing in international law. If a military wants to target civilian infrastructure, like a power plant in a city, in order to achieve military objectives, they are acknowledging attacks on civilian targets. Basically, the idea is that every time a military commander makes the case of military necessity for auch targets, they are stating that they buy off on targeting a civilian infrastructure for military reasons. It’s (supposed to be) more exacting and deliberate than a commander calling something “dual-use” as if they’re only attacking a military target at that time for that use.
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Jan 16, 2023 20:50
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mlmp08 posted:This is a minor thing, and I have also posted “dual-use” or “dual-purpose” out of carelessness, but there’s no such thing in international law. It's not a legal term, but it recognizes here in an informal setting that these types of things frequently do serve military purposes in tandem to civilian purposes and attacks upon them are historically common in past conflicts and have rarely been litigated - likely because it is relatively easy to come up with a justification. And it really depends on the military in question and who has their hands in the process when it comes to how exacting the justifications need to be when it comes to making the decision to blow poo poo up. As evidenced by this conflict.
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Jan 16, 2023 22:14
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Kchama posted:This is wrong. They don't say "a tank is a tank" to mean that all tanks are literally the same therefore it doesn't matter which ones you get as long as you get something. You miss the core point I was making. It isn't the quality or the quantity of the tanks they do have that are stopping them from liberating the country. They have tanks in sufficient numbers if the OSINT guys are correct. If the OSINT guys are not correct and there is a chronic shortage of tanks or ammunition to feed the Russian models they have then a dozen or so tanks as I said is not sufficient and the US should just start refurbing their old M1s lying around in the desert and ship them en-masse to the Ukrainians. I suspect it's more of a lack of trained units capable of executing their own version of OIF. This was evident in the case of the Kherson campaign where over the course of several months, isolated incidents of what sounded like Ukrainian regulars in AFVs overran Russian positions but they never exploited it to the hilt and indeed allowed the Russians to pull out of Kherson without extracting a significant pound of flesh in their most vulnerable moments. In that case, Western tanks also don't do much of anything. Would Western tanks be better? Absolutely. Would it change the attritional nature of this war? I don't see how 100 Leopards are going to be the Wunderweapon that breaks Russia's back and swiftly evicts them all the way to the '91 borders. That's what I mean when I say tanks are tanks. I 100% get the propaganda value etc of this handful of tanks. That is not what I was discussing. Tomn posted:To put it another way, "Why should we try to kill the enemy general? He has subordinates who can step into his role, can't they?" Yes, but the transfer would cause chaos and disruption by itself. It's not going to cause the entire enemy army to shatter or anything, but it will mean that they're steadily less effective at what they do, and doubly more so for a brief time. Same deal with knocking out things that have backup capability - yeah, they might be able to switch to backups, but it'll still cause chaos for a time and now you've got fewer options available if the backup fails too. There also has to be an understanding from the observer imo that the duty isn't to ensure that any and all targets hit are 100% for sure linked to the degradation of the military capabilities of your opponent. You shouldn't need ironclad proof that the target is associated with military value before striking it. Clearly, there is room for nuance. A duty of care required is a lot different from say a railway yard, a powerplant, or a hospital building, vs the indiscriminate bombing of an industrial area. MikeC fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 00:55
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Can you point to a few examples of OSINT claiming Ukraine has enough tanks already?
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Jan 17, 2023 02:01
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osint dorks are, pretty much to a man, saying to give Ukraine more tanks and antiaircraft weapons and long range missiles
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Jan 17, 2023 02:55
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Tevery Best posted:Can you point to a few examples of OSINT claiming Ukraine has enough tanks already? https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html This is Oryx's running count. It appears they have captured a ton more than they have lost. There were quips by the pentagon back in April after the Kyiv and Kharkiv pullout that the Ukrainians likely had more tanks than the Russians even back then. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-has-more-tanks-on-ground-than-russia-official-says-2022-4 If this is the case, why so passive other than the limited September blitz? Or are Ukrainian losses so much worse than what Oryx thinks they are? I keep saying this. This is not an argument about not sending Western tanks. I am on board with the guy that has serious doubts about whether 100 leopards with a dozen Challengers is a game-changer in how the Ukrainians are waging this war.
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Jan 17, 2023 03:16
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are those the wrong links? your post looks like you were going to give 'examples of OSINT claiming Ukraine has enough tanks already' but neither of those links has anything at all to do with backing up the assertion you made
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Jan 17, 2023 03:20
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Sometimes I think that industry has a hand in withholding tanks, it’s either going to be great pr when they save the day or terrible pr when their burnt out husks are tagged with a z, I’m kinda leaning towards the former if they are properly funded. Congressmen have been begging for funds to keep tank orders rolling in their districts and they finally have real justification for it. I know it’s cynical but they should be lobbying to send them over to support their piece of the MIC.
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Jan 17, 2023 03:24
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yeah I've been pondering that. Abrams in particular has basically no upside on a reputational level from use in Ukraine. They're already very well regarded and the popular perception is that they're possibly the least vulnerable tank every made: there's really no way to go but down from there. Ultimately I don't think that's one of the causal factors in the decision to give Abrams to Ukraine or not, but it doesn't help and the US puts enough energy into messaging about the Abram's superiority that they're evidently invested in it having a very good reputation.
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Jan 17, 2023 03:29
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wet_goods posted:Sometimes I think that industry has a hand in withholding tanks, it’s either going to be great pr when they save the day or terrible pr when their burnt out husks are tagged with a z, I’m kinda leaning towards the former if they are properly funded. Congressmen have been begging for funds to keep tank orders rolling in their districts and they finally have real justification for it. I know it’s cynical but they should be lobbying to send them over to support their piece of the MIC. if the tanks get destroyed then you have to give industry more money to develop new better tanks anyways
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Jan 17, 2023 03:33
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OctaMurk posted:if the tanks get destroyed then you have to give industry more money to develop new better tanks anyways I probably would have disagreed with this up until this war started; the narrative before it was that they were approaching obsolescence and funds could be better used elsewhere, hence the begging congressmen Maybe the tank companies already got the pr they needed to justify their existence for the next few decades
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Jan 17, 2023 03:59
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If there was ever a myth of the invulnerable Abrams the Saudis have already ruined it in Yemen fighting some of poorest downtrodden people on the planet so I doubt that's the reason they're not being sent to Ukraine https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-tactical/why-are-houthis-rebelling/
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Jan 17, 2023 04:20
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Herstory Begins Now posted:are those the wrong links? your post looks like you were going to give 'examples of OSINT claiming Ukraine has enough tanks already' but neither of those links has anything at all to do with backing up the assertion you made No, the assertion that Ukraine has the tanks it needs is my take given OSINT numbers for Russian lost or captured vs Ukrainian lost vs captured and the fact that the Pentagon thinks the Russians were already at a deficit in April. If OSINT is wrong on the numbers (ie the the Ukrainians lost way more or the Russians lost way less from that point on), then naturally my take would be incorrect. adebisi lives posted:If there was ever a myth of the invulnerable Abrams the Saudis have already ruined it in Yemen fighting some of poorest downtrodden people on the planet so I doubt that's the reason they're not being sent to Ukraine Similar to how the Leopards were supposed to be "trash" after the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_al-Bab al-Bad. A tank is still a tank especially if not being crewed by competent soldiers or being put in the right place to succeed. People get caught up in all the fancy bells and whistles. Job one is to get a competent tank crew though and people who employ them appropriately. MikeC fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 04:28
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you win wars by maximizing imbalances, not by achieving near parity or a slight deficit in losses more tanks and IFVs lets you generate and equip more brigades, which absolutely is how you generate an advantage sufficient to take territory Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:45 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 04:42
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MikeC posted:No, the assertion that Ukraine has the tanks it needs is my take given OSINT numbers for Russian lost or captured vs Ukrainian lost vs captured and the fact that the Pentagon thinks the Russians were already at a deficit in April. If OSINT is wrong on the numbers (ie the the Ukrainians lost way more or the Russians lost way less from that point on), then naturally my take would be incorrect. Ukraine has mobilized a ton of troops since the war started, and now has a completely new task to perform, so ”Ukraine might have the same amount of tanks now as before the army grew several times in size” is hardly the same as ”Ukraine does not need more tanks”.
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Jan 17, 2023 08:32
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crappy article, but to emphasize that point: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...sh=31fb6b19510c vehicles given to Ukraine are often going directly to equipping new units. hell, a lot of Ukraine's equipment requests are in proportion to the number of new formations they're trying to put together
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Jan 17, 2023 08:38
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Does Ukraine still have it's usual military boot camps running like it did before the war? Or is that something that's impossible to do when you're country is invaded? I would think that military barracks and training centers would come under attack?
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Jan 17, 2023 08:48
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Even if "OSINT" was actually saying Ukraine doesn't need more equipment (lol) the fact is that OSINT people are at best just some dorks playing analysts on the internet, their opinion has literally zero weight if it's contradicted by the armed forces, and vice versa, it only carries any credibility if it is supported by official statements.
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Jan 17, 2023 08:53
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Charliegrs posted:Does Ukraine still have it's usual military boot camps running like it did before the war? Or is that something that's impossible to do when you're country is invaded? I would think that military barracks and training centers would come under attack? There is probably some training happening in country, but the UK, Poland and the US* are training Ukrainians out of country. * probably a few others I am not recalling
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Jan 17, 2023 09:09
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Wasn't there s Russian attack on a barrack early on that killed a couple of hundred trainee troops? I assume they've adjusted in response. Fake edit: 87. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-says-87-killed-in-strike-on-barracks-in-worst-military-loss-of-war-1.4885787 The target is 15-20k trained in the UK this year under Operation Interflex.
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Jan 17, 2023 09:21
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MikeC posted:No, the assertion that Ukraine has the tanks it needs is my take given OSINT numbers for Russian lost or captured vs Ukrainian lost vs captured and the fact that the Pentagon thinks the Russians were already at a deficit in April. If OSINT is wrong on the numbers (ie the the Ukrainians lost way more or the Russians lost way less from that point on), then naturally my take would be incorrect. There is literally no chance for either OSINT to have even just broadly number on Ukrainian losses, or for “1 captured tank = 1 additional usable tank” to be true. Likewise, asserting “they have enough” is something you should be doing with more specific plans than “liberate occupied lands back”. What do they have enough for, a Kursk-style offensive in two weeks, simultaneously on the whole front? And they have enough because of a broad quip that someone made 8 months of combat ago, without repeating it since?
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Jan 17, 2023 09:28
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MikusR posted:Do they use the Tesla like internet updates or floppies? It is the year 2025. A Sweedish tank commander needs to start her jailbroken Leopard 2. The only way to start it is with 20 changes of floppy discs. The process would take minutes. But one genius engineer discovered a workaround by consulting the ancient texts. https://twitter.com/DJ_Link/status/1614555499038494720?t=ZEZLk91RHrP2JmDaeKJLTw&s=19
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Jan 17, 2023 09:39
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Herstory Begins Now posted:yeah I've been pondering that. Abrams in particular has basically no upside on a reputational level from use in Ukraine. They're already very well regarded and the popular perception is that they're possibly the least vulnerable tank every made: there's really no way to go but down from there. evil_bunnY fucked around with this message at 10:02 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 09:59
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MikeC posted:No, the assertion that Ukraine has the tanks it needs is my take given OSINT numbers for Russian lost or captured vs Ukrainian lost vs captured and the fact that the Pentagon thinks the Russians were already at a deficit in April. If OSINT is wrong on the numbers (ie the the Ukrainians lost way more or the Russians lost way less from that point on), then naturally my take would be incorrect. It is entirely your own assertion and it is founded on some really faulty logic.
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Jan 17, 2023 11:13
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MikeC posted:No, the assertion that Ukraine has the tanks it needs is my take given OSINT numbers for Russian lost or captured vs Ukrainian lost vs captured and the fact that the Pentagon thinks the Russians were already at a deficit in April. If OSINT is wrong on the numbers (ie the the Ukrainians lost way more or the Russians lost way less from that point on), then naturally my take would be incorrect. Just because a vehicle got captured rather than destroyed doesn't mean that it is in usable shape. A captured tank may in reality be half a tank (or less) because it cannot be used in combat and ends up being used for spare parts for other vehicles. On top of that, given the shape of Russian tanks in general... Visually confirmed losses are going to generally be the floor of the possible numbers of losses (because often there won't be people able to document the loss), whereas visually confirmed captures will be most likely close to the ceiling of those numbers because you really want to show off captured equipment and there's always people around capable of documenting the fact. TZer0 fucked around with this message at 13:16 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 11:23
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Since it came up yesterday: Scholz did the thing I thought he would, which is to just decide without having a long debate. The new Minister of Defense is going to be Pistorius (no, not that one), who nobody had thought of. He's the current Minister of the Interior (and Sport, lmao) of Lower Saxony (which means he is a piece of poo poo), but he has a decade of experience of running a ministry, so… I don't know, probably what the MoD needs right now. Unfucking the procurement system is going to be the primary task anyway, probably good to have someone on the post who has run a ministry well enough to keep that post for a decade.
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Jan 17, 2023 12:11
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Antigravitas posted:Since it came up yesterday: Scholz did the thing I thought he would, which is to just decide without having a long debate. Do you think there will be any impact on German policy regarding Ukraine? Obviously Scholz is the real decision maker, but presumably the Minister of Defense has some influence here.
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Jan 17, 2023 13:36
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EasilyConfused posted:Do you think there will be any impact on German policy regarding Ukraine? Obviously Scholz is the real decision maker, but presumably the Minister of Defense has some influence here. It has no influence over Scholz.
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Jan 17, 2023 13:39
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Nothing immediate. Foreign policy is very much not decided in the MoD. There is a proximate impact because replenishment of Bundeswehr materiel also determines what can be provided from Bundeswehr stocks. The most important task right now is extremely boring and bureaucratic: unfucking the byzantine procurement system.
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Jan 17, 2023 13:42
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Antigravitas posted:Since it came up yesterday: Scholz did the thing I thought he would, which is to just decide without having a long debate. He was in the German-Russian Friendship Group and is linked with Doris Schröder-Köpf (ex #4 of Schroeder). 
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Jan 17, 2023 14:06
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MikeC posted:No, the assertion that Ukraine has the tanks it needs is my take given OSINT numbers for Russian lost or captured vs Ukrainian lost vs captured and the fact that the Pentagon thinks the Russians were already at a deficit in April. If OSINT is wrong on the numbers (ie the the Ukrainians lost way more or the Russians lost way less from that point on), then naturally my take would be incorrect. First and foremost, Oryx operates strictly on data verified by photo and video evidence. Despite the sheer amount of daily photos from official sources and just from the ground, it is absolutely certain that the real vehicle losses are way higher. Except for maybe aircraft hits since every one is an event. It is not possible to get perfect data as an observing nerd civilian, which all OSINT accounts are. You should also keep in mind the bias in photo evidence - Ukraine side is more willing to share enemy losses while Russians filter it and have fewer independent sources (no culture of units with their own PR like Kraken or Kholodny Yar; Wagner and old DNR formations are the exception). Also the home field advantage - it is more difficult to get a proof of a tank hit in Ukraine territory that is under UA control and its Opsec. And as as others have mentioned, a "captured" tank could be the one that was completely wrecked before the crew abandoned it, likely intentionally. It would be very naive to assume that every capture is as easy as just repainting Zs into crosses.
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Jan 17, 2023 14:12
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Just Another Lurker posted:He was in the German-Russian Friendship Group and is linked with Doris Schröder-Köpf (ex #4 of Schroeder). So were a lot of people. I do remember that he about tripled accommodations for refugees in Lower Saxony fairly quickly and his ministry organised that effort competently enough. I have a serious bone to pick with him on other topics, but I don't think you can be in the MoI and not be a complete shitbag on civil liberties.
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Jan 17, 2023 14:29
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Even if Ukraine has captured more tanks than it has lost, you shouldn’t make the assumption that’s all the tanks they want given the overall number is still way less than what Russia has.
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Jan 17, 2023 14:35
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Hand Row posted:Even if Ukraine has captured more tanks than it has lost, you shouldn’t make the assumption that’s all the tanks they want given the overall number is still way less than what Russia has. And while no tank is a magic win generator, the truth is that Western MBTs simply ARE a lot better than Russian/leftover Soviet ones in a lot of areas. Like HIMARS wasn't irrelevant just because both sides had MRLs and Ukraine captured a bunch of Grads or whatever the gently caress.
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Jan 17, 2023 15:25
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January 15-17 round-up No deep dives this time. Regular news: UN confirms deaths of at least 7000 Ukrainian civilians since February. Mildly  header photo with bagged bodies. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/world/europe/un-ukraine-war-civilian-deaths.htmlDnipro strike search and rescue operation is over. 44 dead, 79 wounded, and 39 rescued. https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3067 FT has a cool piece on Western banks doing the “find out” part in Russia. https://www.ft.com/content/98f91997-db83-4a23-8497-9348c7e7247f Self-professed Wagner commander has fled to Norway. https://www.ft.com/content/a544df03-1f0e-4877-8a33-f6ef981b67fc Mediazona has an investigation on him. https://zona.media/article/2023/01/16/medvedev Arestovich has resigned over his most recent bombastic comments. https://www.ukrinform.ru/rubric-polytics/3654089-arestovic-napisal-zaavlenie-ob-uvolnenii.html AFU keeps insisting that the fight yet remains on in Soledar. https://censor.net/ru/news/3393840/podrazdeleniya_vsu_nahodyatsya_v_soledare_i_dayut_otpor_okkupantam_cherevatyyi And while "DNR" is only claiming today that Soledar has been “freed” by Russian forces (https://t.me/TRO_DPR/11053), even Butusov is starting to call AFU out to talk straight about it. Tatarskiy is angrily blogging about poor state of equipment of an artillery regiment he visited (4 howitzers and some technicals). https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/18626 NYT has a piece on art theft by Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/14/world/asia/ukraine-art-russia-steal.html Erdogan unlikely to approve Swedish and Finnish NATO bids before June. https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/erdogan-sweden-finland-must-extradite-up-to-130-terrorists-for-nato-bid/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/pm-says-too-early-to-tell-when-sweden-will-join-nato/ Russia is calling a UN Security Council session about “religious persecution of the Russian church” by Ukrainian government. https://censor.net/ru/news/3393771/sovbez_oon_po_trebovaniyu_rf_obsudit_pritesneniya_rossiyiskoyi_tserkvi_v_ukraine Head of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers talks about fake “equivalent” organizations being stood up by Kremlin. https://verstka.media/valentina-melnikova-spoilery-soldatskih-zhen-i-materey Vazhnye Istorii has interviewed a mobilized soldier stationed in Kreminna since October. https://storage.googleapis.com/isto...asti/index.html Kartapolov is walking back raising draft age ceiling to 30. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16803925 UAF Bradley training underway already. https://t.me/milinfolive/95574 Seems that Ukraine also has Iranian-made Grad munitions from somewhere. https://t.me/csources/177412 Russia is deploying S-400 systems in Moscow city. https://t.me/sotaproject/52383 Ukraine claims that it's wrapping up its work on a 1000 km-range drone with 75 kg warhead. https://t.me/bbcrussian/40258 Other summaries: https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-13-15 https://zona.media/chronicle/328 https://zona.media/chronicle/327 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-15-2023
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Jan 17, 2023 16:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Russia is deploying S-400 systems in Moscow city. https://t.me/sotaproject/52383 Why? Do they actually believe Moscow is somehow in danger or is this just for show?
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Jan 17, 2023 16:44
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Scratch Monkey posted:Why? Do they actually believe Moscow is somehow in danger or is this just for show? Gotta show the people you’re protecting them from imminent danger.
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