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Oracle posted:Gotta show the people you’re protecting them from imminent danger. Nah, it’s a limited special operation with no risk to anyone, which makes the optics on a park in Moscow currently being logged out for an S-400 quite funny. Scratch Monkey posted:Why? Do they actually believe Moscow is somehow in danger or is this just for show? Supposedly, this is a belated response to https://mil.in.ua/en/news/in-russia-an-unknown-drone-explodes-over-the-shaikovka-ab-where-tu-22m3-bombers-are-based/
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Jan 17, 2023 17:14
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Oracle posted:Gotta show the people you’re protecting them from imminent danger. I Google lense'd this for anyone curious of the translation, also lol quote:S-400 air defense systems were deployed at the experimental fields of the Timiryazev Agricultural Academy in Moscow
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Jan 17, 2023 17:23
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Hasn't Russia been using the S-300 to fire at Ukraine recently since they're running low on missiles? Have they used the S-400 yet to strike at Ukraine? https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3653413-five-civilians-injured-as-russians-strike-zaporizhzhia-with-s300-missile.html
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Jan 17, 2023 17:25
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Willo567 posted:Hasn't Russia been using the S-300 to fire at Ukraine recently since they're running low on missiles? Have they used the S-400 yet to strike at Ukraine? They are not going to use the S-400 for that. They really don't have that many of them. In contrast, something like 30k S-300P missiles have been built before the system started to get phased out in favor of the S-400. The oldest of those missiles have already aged out a while ago, and there's a new batch of a thousand or so that age out every year. Because of this, they can launch a whole bunch of S-300s as lovely ground attack missiles without really impacting their air defense.
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Jan 17, 2023 17:37
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Tuna-Fish posted:They are not going to use the S-400 for that. They seemingly did it on January 14, against Kyiv. https://defence-ua.com/video/rf_pochala_biti_z_s_400_raketami_48n6dm_po_mistah_zvidki_bjut_zagroza_ta_protidija-123.html
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Jan 17, 2023 19:08
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Scratch Monkey posted:Why? Do they actually believe Moscow is somehow in danger or is this just for show? Honestly? The Ukrainians have shown that they could probably hit Moscow if they can hit active military airbases similarly distant from the border. They're not going to go after like, the Kremlin, since that would lead to missiles targeting every government building in Kyiv. However I imagine there is some more purely-military target in Moscow that they could hit for huge symbolic value, but which wouldn't lead to missiles aiming for the Mariinskyi Palace.
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Jan 17, 2023 19:52
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-strikes-sap-ukraine-mobile-network-of-vital-power-11673747621 forgot to link this WSJ piece about the efforts to keep Ukraine’s mobile data network up.
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Jan 17, 2023 20:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They seemingly did it on January 14, against Kyiv. https://defence-ua.com/video/rf_pochala_biti_z_s_400_raketami_48n6dm_po_mistah_zvidki_bjut_zagroza_ta_protidija-123.html What's the range of the S-400 missiles? From Kyiv to Moscow it's around 800KM, so I'm wondering of they would actually fire missiles from Moscow if they can actually reach Kyiv or another part of Ukraine since they're putting the S-400 there Willo567 fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 20:58
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Willo567 posted:What's the range of the S-400 missiles? From Kyiv to Moscow it's around 800KM, so I'm wondering of they would actually fire missiles from Moscow if they can actually reach Kyiv or another part of Ukraine since they're putting the S-400 there  It’s around 200 km, what is this nonsense?
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Jan 17, 2023 21:22
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Willo567 posted:What's the range of the S-400 missiles? From Kyiv to Moscow it's around 800KM, so I'm wondering of they would actually fire missiles from Moscow if they can actually reach Kyiv or another part of Ukraine since they're putting the S-400 there S-400 has a range of 250km for aerial targets, no possible way it could hit Kyiv from Moscow
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Jan 17, 2023 21:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
From Kyiv to Moscow? That seems short. I mean ultimately I assume these missiles are going to be used for closer range air defense to avoid more embaressment not in a surface-to-surface role so it seems moot either way. Edit: Nevermind you were talking about the range of the S400.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They seemingly did it on January 14, against Kyiv. https://defence-ua.com/video/rf_pochala_biti_z_s_400_raketami_48n6dm_po_mistah_zvidki_bjut_zagroza_ta_protidija-123.html ... okay, this is just another time when Russian actions in this war just make me scratch my head. Why would they do that?
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Jan 17, 2023 21:31
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Tuna-Fish posted:... okay, this is just another time when Russian actions in this war just make me scratch my head. Why would they do that? I have no credible theories apart from Iskander ammunition production struggling.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:38
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adebisi lives posted:If there was ever a myth of the invulnerable Abrams the Saudis have already ruined it in Yemen fighting some of poorest downtrodden people on the planet so I doubt that's the reason they're not being sent to Ukraine The Saudi's have the export variant Abrahams as far as I know. The export variants do not have the depleted uranium armor schema the American versions have--that armor thinkness, composition, and layout is literally the most protected secret about the Abrahams. I am not sure the American variants would be handed to the Ukrainians if the US ever decided to arm the UAF with American tanks; however, the Saudi loss of export Abrahams in Yemen really gives you no real information about how the American version would perform in sustained combat. I can tell you that in the 20 years of the war on terror something like 3 Abrahams were lost in combat, none of those combat losses involved penetration of the crew compartment, and as I recall in the one case the tank could not be retrieved not even fire from other Abrahams could take out the tank, so the ground forces involved literally ended up having to call in an air strike to destroy the disabled tank so that it couldn't be recovered by someone who might tow away the wreck and sell it to Russia or China.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:40
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Iirc the armor composition is the second most guarded secret. How to properly spell Abrams is still the biggest one.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:43
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ZombieLenin posted:I am not sure the American variants would be handed to the Ukrainians if the US ever decided to arm the UAF with American tanks; however, the Saudi loss of export Abrahams in Yemen really gives you no real information about how the American version would perform in sustained combat. ZombieLenin posted:I can tell you that in the 20 years of the war on terror something like 3 Abrahams were lost in combat, none of those combat losses involved penetration of the crew compartment, and as I recall in the one case the tank could not be retrieved not even fire from other Abrahams could take out the tank, so the ground forces involved literally ended up having to call in an air strike to destroy the disabled tank so that it couldn't be recovered by someone who might tow away the wreck and sell it to Russia or China.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:51
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I have no credible theories apart from Iskander ammunition production struggling. Beyond just Iskander's, Russia's been using an absolute hodgepodge of missiles the entire time. notably s400 production lines have very likely been going at full speed since before the war even started so they're likely being replenished as quickly as anything. and +1 missile is +1 chance to get something through Ukraine's AD
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Jan 17, 2023 22:01
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I wonder what armour will be on the Challengers we hand over? I assume we don't want the Russians getting hold of whatever the latest version of chobham is, but I don't know how replaceable it is. I believe only one has been lost, to friendly fire.
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Jan 17, 2023 22:09
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evil_bunnY posted:The russians loved to say that about their export variants. Also it's Abrams. I think there's a distinction in how the enemy took out those M1s in Iraq. Taking out the tracks or destroying external fuel tanks so as to make the tank inoperable is not the same as penetrating the crew compartment. I don't know if I can believe all the "magic armor" stories without reading more on the subject, though.
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Jan 17, 2023 22:20
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If you're counting mobility kills as "knocked out", 80 might be accurate. That's still a very low number given the number of advanced ATGMs available to the insurgency. And nevermind the absolutely gigantic IEDs that were showing up even in late 2003 (e.g. chaining a dozen 155mm HE rounds together 2 meters from a road). I do know that at least one Abrams had its crew compartment penetrated via an advanced anti-tank missile (RPG-29, I think?). I vaguely recall that the crew survived that strike, but am not certain. Even at the time it was somewhat apocryphal, albeit I saw some photos.
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Jan 17, 2023 22:26
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
I didn't know the range of the missiles, which is why I asked. Sorry
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Jan 17, 2023 22:31
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Ynglaur posted:I do know that at least one Abrams had its crew compartment penetrated via an advanced anti-tank missile (RPG-29, I think?). I vaguely recall that the crew survived that strike, but am not certain. Even at the time it was somewhat apocryphal, albeit I saw some photos. Like I said: turret front: real good, everything else: could get dicey. The magic sauce of the abrams is the combo of good sensors, good main armament, and being employed properly. When you take the last one away (see Irak, KSA employments) the magic disappears.
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Jan 17, 2023 22:37
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Are there any reliable figures out there on how many Abrams the Saudis have lost on their misadventures?
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Jan 17, 2023 22:49
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Willo567 posted:I didn't know the range of the missiles, which is why I asked. Sorry The problem here is not you knowing the range of this or that missile, but that you were somehow reading the sequence of recent S-400-related posts into a “theory” that the Russian government could plausibly chop clearings out in the parks of Moscow to establish space for launching missiles against Ukraine. This is so, so, so bizarrely nonsensical thing to pivot to that I cannot even make that sentence look normal.
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Jan 17, 2023 22:55
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Dandywalken posted:Iirc the armor composition is the second most guarded secret. How to properly spell Abrams is still the biggest one. It actually just got leaked on the War Thunder forums this week.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:02
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I know that one of the main issues that gets cited with giving Abrams (and Abraham's) to Ukraine is the logistical issues. Things like maintaining the turbine engines they use etc. So my question is what is the difference between the logistics challenges the Ukrainian military would have versus if the US military itself (hypothetically) was using the tanks in Ukraine? Would the difference be that the US would set up logistics depots close enough to service tanks on the Frontline which maybe is not something Ukraine could do on its own? Or is it that the US already has personnel trained and equipped for all these duties whereas Ukraine has none? I suspect it's that. Also what are the logistics challenges like with Abrams versus Challenger tanks? Both weigh about the same. I think the Challenger uses a standard diesel engine though so that might make things easier.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:16
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Blut posted:Are there any reliable figures out there on how many Abrams the Saudis have lost on their misadventures? There's an article from 2016 about a US shipment of tanks that included 20 that were specifically replacements for tanks that had been lost. So I guess you could estimate from that that they've lost at least 20 and that was after 1 year of war, and assuming losses have continued at the same pace (not likely) it could be they've lost some ~150 or so in total. I assume alot of Saudi Abrams losses are basically from situations where anyone who put themselves in that situation would have lost the tank due to poor training, leadership and shortage of infantry*. Probably alot of them are tanks advancing without infantry support, getting hit, and the poorly trained crew, with no awareness of their surroundings, panicking and possibly abandoning the tank. *IIRC the Saudi military is chronically undermanned, and understrength formations are the norm, and they've probably "solved" this similarly to the Russians earlier in the invasion by just ditching the infantrymen.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:22
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They have solved their infantry shortages by abducting African war orphans (orphaned in conflicts they finance) and fighting alongside Al Quaeda
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Jan 17, 2023 23:28
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The Netherlands plan to chip in with their own Patriot. https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1615439878577164289
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Jan 18, 2023 00:13
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People in Moscow tried to organise a small memorial to the victims of the Dnipro missile strike at the statue of the Ukrainian female writer Lesya Ukrainka (Moscow has a lot of statues of writers from 'minority nation republics' left from the Soviet era). https://twitter.com/sevslv/status/1615470984563236895 It didn't take long before some of them got arrested. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1615432335402352641
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Jan 18, 2023 00:24
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https://v.redd.it/i07a063ighca1 Video of a radio getting stolen by a drone. Does this mean war is changing? Or has it already changed?
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Jan 18, 2023 00:33
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Australia sending a contingent today over to the UK to assist with training today https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ed-environments
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Jan 18, 2023 00:38
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Pentagon Press Sec did a press conference, links below, I've cut out everything that is not about Ukraine, as this is a general press conference covering topics beyond the scope of Ukraine. Not much today. Link: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...n-camera-press/ Highlights: -US Patriot training ongoing. Plan is for one tranche of training one battery-ish worth of people. The US is not conducting training in support of the German pledge of their own Patriot Battery. Patriot training will last for months. I cut out a lot of questions about doing press coverage/video of it, but the press wants to go see it and the DOD is being a bit noncommittal. -No details on the Russian missile strike on an apartment building in Dnipro. -Maybe more details after the next contact group meeting (multiple countries getting together to discuss collective pledges, way ahead for support to Ukraine, etc) quote:BRIGADIER GENERAL PAT RYDER: Good afternoon, everyone.
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Jan 18, 2023 00:46
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EasilyConfused posted:Do you think there will be any impact on German policy regarding Ukraine? Obviously Scholz is the real decision maker, but presumably the Minister of Defense has some influence here. So indirectly the change could lead to Leopards being delivered. But overall, Scholz is the main factor blocking so far, and everyone else can only increase the pressure and the political cost for continuing that.
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Jan 18, 2023 00:48
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https://twitter.com/ronenbergman/status/1615499462511628292?s=20&t=8oXCJH_t_c96mmpfhWRgXw Some bits from article: quote:The Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells in the war with Russia, American and Israeli officials say. quote:The Ukrainian army uses about 90,000 artillery rounds a month, about twice the rate they are being manufactured by the United States and European countries combined, U.S. and Western officials say. The rest must come from other sources, including existing stockpiles or commercial sales. quote:Israel has imposed a near-total embargo on selling weapons to Ukraine, fearing that Russia might retaliate by using its forces in Syria to limit Israeli airstrikes aimed at Iranian and Hezbollah forces there. quote:The Israeli officials said that Israel had not changed its policy of not providing Ukraine with lethal weapons and rather was acceding to an American decision to use its own ammunition as it saw fit.
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Jan 18, 2023 02:10
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:https://v.redd.it/i07a063ighca1 While that is extremely hilarious, I'd guess that US/UKR SIGINT was already perfectly capable of hearing everything RU transmits
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Jan 18, 2023 02:54
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MikeC posted:You miss the core point I was making. It isn't the quality or the quantity of the tanks they do have that are stopping them from liberating the country. They have tanks in sufficient numbers if the OSINT guys are correct. If the OSINT guys are not correct and there is a chronic shortage of tanks or ammunition to feed the Russian models they have then a dozen or so tanks as I said is not sufficient and the US should just start refurbing their old M1s lying around in the desert and ship them en-masse to the Ukrainians. I suspect it's more of a lack of trained units capable of executing their own version of OIF. This was evident in the case of the Kherson campaign where over the course of several months, isolated incidents of what sounded like Ukrainian regulars in AFVs overran Russian positions but they never exploited it to the hilt and indeed allowed the Russians to pull out of Kherson without extracting a significant pound of flesh in their most vulnerable moments. In that case, Western tanks also don't do much of anything. Would Western tanks be better? Absolutely. Would it change the attritional nature of this war? I don't see how 100 Leopards are going to be the Wunderweapon that breaks Russia's back and swiftly evicts them all the way to the '91 borders. MikeC posted:No, the assertion that Ukraine has the tanks it needs is my take given OSINT numbers for Russian lost or captured vs Ukrainian lost vs captured and the fact that the Pentagon thinks the Russians were already at a deficit in April. If OSINT is wrong on the numbers (ie the the Ukrainians lost way more or the Russians lost way less from that point on), then naturally my take would be incorrect. Once you have a tank, all those' fancy bells and whistles' matter a hell of a lot. Even a crappier crew fights a lot better with a better tank. Never mind that the amount of tanks they need will always be "more", and they will always need 'better'. Training matters, of course, but once you have training, better tanks get a lot better results. Never mind all this "I have mathematically calculated the exact number of tanks Ukraine will need" stuff.
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Jan 18, 2023 03:21
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SaTaMaS posted:While that is extremely hilarious, I'd guess that US/UKR SIGINT was already perfectly capable of hearing everything RU transmits I'm entirely positive that even if the US military could break modern encryption, we would not share that with Ukraine. Or anyone.
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Jan 18, 2023 03:43
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KillHour posted:I'm entirely positive that even if the US military could break modern encryption, we would not share that with Ukraine. Or anyone. I agree the stolen radio is probably nothing, but as a counterpoint I would also be surprised if Russian radios are the latest crypto standards. Give it good odds that it's using some old 70s stuff like DES or comedy option some American chip with a NSA backdoor.
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Jan 18, 2023 04:04
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WarpedLichen posted:I agree the stolen radio is probably nothing, but as a counterpoint I would also be surprised if Russian radios are the latest crypto standards. Give it good odds that it's using some old 70s stuff like DES or comedy option some American chip with a NSA backdoor. If the radio is using modern encryption standards, stealing it would not be nothing (at least for a little bit, until they realized what happened and change the encryption keys, or whatever the radio equivalent is). I'm saying that there is actually probably value there. If the radio is old / obsolete, it's less valuable because we could already break it.
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Jan 18, 2023 04:11
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