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Am I wrong to think that it appears the floodgates for armor are starting to open? Maybe just a bit, but seems like a pretty rapid shift within the past couple weeks.
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Jan 18, 2023 22:47
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cr0y posted:Am I wrong to think that it appears the floodgates for armor are starting to open? Maybe just a bit, but seems like a pretty rapid shift within the past couple weeks. Certainly seems that way. This plus the GLSDBs giving Ukraine the ability to hit any target in occupied territory (besides Crimea) means we'll probably be in for a very impressive spring offensive.
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Jan 18, 2023 22:50
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I don't think it was particularly rapid. Ukraine started receiving bridging equipment, mine clearing equipment (the armoured angry flail variant), transport vehicles. If you tune out the constant screeching of Twitter users you get a picture that for the past months something has been brewing. Right now there's an impossible amount of public posturing going on, but the actual thing to look at is the Ramstein meeting.
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Jan 18, 2023 22:58
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It's gotten to the point where the German understanders are more annoying than Putin stans. Is the Süddeutsche Z. also a fake news spewing Anglo Murdoch rag now that it's embarrassing to Papa Scholz because of his newest innovation in the field of international self-humiliation? https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ukraine-leopard-panzer-bundesregierung-1.5734901 Note that it makes outright allegations about linking German support to American provision of Abrams, not any supposed nebulous general phrasing, as was claimed earlier in a futile attempt to twist reality into a German friendly pretzel in defense of yet another totally reasonable German stance that's going to be walked back in a month after everybody will have browbeaten them into submission over their spineless idiocy. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 18, 2023 23:01
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Chalks posted:Certainly seems that way. This plus the GLSDBs giving Ukraine the ability to hit any target in occupied territory (besides Crimea) means we'll probably be in for a very impressive spring offensive. It looks like they can strike well across the Crimean Perekop Isthmus, the strip of land that connects it to the mainland, with the GLSDB system. That's extremely significant, as it allows them to strike the logistics targets along it that are carrying supplies from the Kerch bridge such as rail and roadways, allows them to strike fuel and ammo depots on the other sides, and lets them start softening up the fortifications that are protecting it. If you can saturate that 5 km wide strip with enough precision GLSDB fire, you've laid the groundworks for a successful offensive in that direction. That's not even speaking to the effect it'll have in the Donbas and Zaporizhia axes, hitting command and control, depots, troop concentrations, and myriad other targets that were once thought safe by Russian forces in those regions. Given the large untapped supply of SDB's that the West has stockpiled, this will be a game changer. e: MOVIE MAJICK posted:
On a related note, here's another piece of wholesome drone content from the frontlines (completely SFW): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UquDZDCt920 Mederlock fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Jan 18, 2023 |
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Jan 18, 2023 23:07
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Additional IFVs are valuable for the optics and firepower they provide, but don't forget they are also valuable for the armor itself. For those that didn't watch the video I posted the other day, a BMP-2M--which is probably less protected than a Bradley--took multiple anti-tank munitions to kill the crew and passengers. That was a single BMP, and tied up a dozen+ soldiers for ~30 minutes. Imagine if there were two of them. Armored vehicles are not panaceas and don't prevent all casualties, but they let you cross the proverbial unforgiving minute with a good chance of getting close enough to the enemy line to break that line. That said, tanks would also be great. I hope we send Ukraine lots of tanks. It's a shame that Germany's leadership has forsworn any kind of courageous leadership, but enough countries have not-Leopards I'm pretty sure the free world can get Ukraine enough tanks.
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Jan 18, 2023 23:15
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OddObserver posted:Edit: is this SZ you're talking about? Just noticed your edit. That's the SZ, yes. I severely doubt the thrust of the article, but it is about a million times more credible. It is reporting from a supposed phone call with Biden, but is, charitably speaking, very conservative with citations and extremely vague. It's no secret that getting hundreds of active tanks assembled is a pretty difficult task, though. As I said earlier, Ukraine needs hundreds, more than most countries have in active service. An American involvement is almost inevitable.
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Jan 18, 2023 23:19
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Ynglaur posted:Additional IFVs are valuable for the optics and firepower they provide, but don't forget they are also valuable for the armor itself. For those that didn't watch the video I posted the other day, a BMP-2M--which is probably less protected than a Bradley--took multiple anti-tank munitions to kill the crew and passengers. That was a single BMP, and tied up a dozen+ soldiers for ~30 minutes. Imagine if there were two of them. Bradley is better armoured (it's like twice as heavy as the BMP after all), but even more importantly, it has the optics, sensors and Comms suite to detect the enemy infantry and keep it at bay so it can't keep lobbing Panzerfausts at it.
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Jan 18, 2023 23:22
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Didn't see this yet https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1615829559718420482?s=20&t=CDXaHSbKrdymekyYwVHQJQ
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Jan 18, 2023 23:25
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If the Germans are really held up by a lack of commitment of American tanks, before they'll give the blessing for the transfer of Leopard II's, what's the viability of throwing together an upgrade package on what's left of the M60 stock, pick up a bunch from the nations that the USA sold them to, and pushing those forward as an alternative to providing Abrams? They're certainly inferior, but all the reasons the Americans are hesitant to send the Abrams make a lot of sense (hard to maintain, and more importantly it's hard to train those mechanics on a jet engine powered tank, the logistics drain of a hugely fuel-inefficient tank force, etc.), it would satisfy the Germans alleged need? to see American tanks going out, rather than more APC's, for political optics. Realistically, Bradley's and Stryker's are going to be way more effective than an ancient tank. But the Russians and Ukrainians are already employing lots of T64's, so at face value it's at least equivalent to those museum pieces.
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Jan 18, 2023 23:50
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Mederlock posted:If the Germans are really held up by a lack of commitment of American tanks, before they'll give the blessing for the transfer of Leopard II's, what's the viability of throwing together an upgrade package on what's left of the M60 stock, pick up a bunch from the nations that the USA sold them to, and pushing those forward as an alternative to providing Abrams? They're certainly inferior, but all the reasons the Americans are hesitant to send the Abrams make a lot of sense (hard to maintain, and more importantly it's hard to train those mechanics on a jet engine powered tank, the logistics drain of a hugely fuel-inefficient tank force, etc.), it would satisfy the Germans alleged need? to see American tanks going out, rather than more APC's, for political optics. Realistically, Bradley's and Stryker's are going to be way more effective than an ancient tank. But the Russians and Ukrainians are already employing lots of T64's, so at face value it's at least equivalent to those museum pieces. Considering how hard Scholz fights his own coalition on every step, sending M60s would probably force him one step back and allow for the possibility of sending Leopard-1s, like sending more APCs and IFVs will force Scholz begrudgingly to send more Marders to not look ridiculous. But anyway, the next meeting is only a couple of days away. For all we know, 200+ Abrams and then 200+ Leo-2s are only days away from being announced. 
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Jan 18, 2023 23:56
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Ukraine needs a sustainable source of MBTs, not some hodgepodge M60. Look at the countries that are supplying materiel to Ukraine and what kind of tanks they have and their numbers and at what kind of upgrade package. Leclerc and Challenger are right out. Too few to bring up the whole logistics train, insufficient replacement potential. The only real candidates are some Leopard 2 variants (probably 2A4, nobody wants to part with 2A6 or 2A7) and Abrams. The Leopard 2 exists in many special variants because each country just had to modify them in some fashion, so cobbling something together is a bit of a nightmare. If every operator takes a haircut, even a severe one, it's simply not enough. The Abrams exists in vast sustainable quantities. True to being American, it guzzles fuel during idle. But it isn't a maintenance issue, Iraq and Kuwait are doing fine with them, Ukraine would manage fine. The real conundrum is: Germany does not want to be in a military leadership position for very European reasons. But neither does the USA want to be seen as leading the charge, both for escalation management reasons and for global perception. That's how you get things like the IFV announcement where France made the announcement and Germany/USA followed a day later. My assumption is that after Friday's meeting one or more of the other Leopard 2 operators are finally going to officially apply for re-export licenses that they've been studiously avoiding to actually file. That's impossible to hide. There'll be some media flurry for a bit and when it dies down Germany and the US are going to make another joint announcement. That's my late-night reading the tea leaves at least.
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Jan 19, 2023 00:28
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Libluini posted:Considering how hard Scholz fights his own coalition on every step, sending M60s would probably force him one step back and allow for the possibility of sending Leopard-1s, like sending more APCs and IFVs will force Scholz begrudgingly to send more Marders to not look ridiculous. I guess this is something that's being bandied about by think tank wanks too apparently https://www.forbes.com/sites/craigh...sh=23c5e7d41006 Put another way, every M60A3 and Leopard I they get, is another tank they can park on the Belarus border, in rear guard formations, etc. So they can concentrate T72/T80/T90 tanks into more offensive focused divisions with the new influx of Strykers, Marders, Bradley's, and other analogues. But yeah, if the USA and Germany are going to get off their asses and front proper modern MBT's in sufficient supply, there's no questioning that would be a far superior option for Ukraine.
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Jan 19, 2023 01:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That’s a big fine since a few weeks ago. Did russia really make it a fine/crime to show images with parts of ukraine not as part of russia?
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Jan 19, 2023 02:45
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downout posted:Did russia really make it a fine/crime to show images with parts of ukraine not as part of russia? Just a fine/misdemeanour, not a felony. Also, don't forget the Kurils!! https://rg.ru/2022/12/20/gosduma-vvodit-millionnyj-shtraf-za-rasprostranenie-kart-c-otdelennym-krymom-ili-kurilami.html
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Jan 19, 2023 03:27
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:canada is sending 200 apcs to ukraine Looks like it's basically an uparmoured Ford heavy duty Diesel truck. Even has a Ford dash! 
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Jan 19, 2023 04:14
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Mederlock posted:Looks like it's basically an uparmoured Ford heavy duty Diesel truck. Even has a Ford dash! Canada has a bunch of armored car companies that sell armored vehicles resembling Humvees or MRAP style vehicles from ford super duty gas or diesel truck chassis. Usually the customers have been tycoons and high net worth clients living in places like South Africa who want to make sure the vehicle can take a beating from better armed groups who might be after them. Police forces also buy them. There’s companies like Conquest vehicles, Roshel and Inkas. Some are actually founded by Ukrainian diaspora.
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Jan 19, 2023 04:28
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Mederlock posted:Looks like it's basically an uparmoured Ford heavy duty Diesel truck. Even has a Ford dash! Supposed to be resistant to 12.7mm, so it's not far off from something like an M113.
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Jan 19, 2023 04:30
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Warbadger posted:Supposed to be resistant to 12.7mm, so it's not far off from something like an M113. Their website is saying it's resistant up to .30-06. Do you have a source on the 12.7mm rating because that's it taking .50cal basically. Could be the specs online don't reflect the Canadian military spec ones. I make the distinction, because that's the difference between it being resistant to PKM 7.62x54r fire versus 12.7mm DShK fire, Which are two prominent systems on the front. Mederlock fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Jan 19, 2023 |
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Jan 19, 2023 05:52
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Mederlock posted:Looks like it's basically an uparmoured Ford heavy duty Diesel truck. Even has a Ford dash!
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Jan 19, 2023 06:18
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Mederlock posted:Their website is saying it's resistant up to .30-06. Do you have a source on the 12.7mm rating because that's it taking .50cal basically. Could be the specs online don't reflect the Canadian military spec ones. I make the distinction, because that's the difference between it being resistant to PKM 7.62x54r fire versus 12.7mm DShK fire, Which are two prominent systems on the front. A few of the random internet news articles were claing 12.7mm, but yeah according to the manufacturer it looks like they're rated CEN B7/STANAG II. So not 12.7mm but should stop something like 30-06 firing steel core AP ammunition at short range. Notably the vanilla M113 would also not stop 12.7mm at close range. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 06:27 on Jan 19, 2023 |
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Jan 19, 2023 06:23
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UK MoD reporting Armatas present in staging areas for possible deployment. Good thread. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1615956174800654338?t=KOtXeMFol5j81sShgi7huw&s=19
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Jan 19, 2023 08:45
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Paracausal posted:UK MoD reporting Armatas present in staging areas for possible deployment. Good thread. Oh man I bet western Intel agencies can't wait to find out how they fare against Javelins
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Jan 19, 2023 08:54
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Charliegrs posted:Oh man I bet western Intel agencies can't wait to find out how they fare against Javelins Yeah we will see if they actually get used or end up just going forward enough for a photo OP. The BMPT ‘Terminator’ is another piece of hyped modern Russian kit that supposedly has seen use in combat to glowing reviews by Russian propaganda, with no real proof that it’s actually been near the fighting. That said, just so as not to sound too dismissive of Russian armor, I did see this tweet today: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1615812451206893590 So Russia CAN build good tanks, whether the Armata is one, and whether they can build it in sufficient quantities to have an effect on this war I’m more doubtful of.
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Jan 19, 2023 09:28
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Antigravitas posted:
Maybe in a few decades we will found out what is actually being said between NATO partners in regards to sending equipment, and in particular modern MBTs to Ukraine. While Germany keeps coming up with reasons for not sending or allowing others to export the Leopard 2, Scholz has said they do not want to 'burn all bridges' to Russia by being the largest exporter of arms to Ukraine behind the US. I would go on to say that this is true of most NATO nations, as this war will end one day and they will have to deal with Russia in whatever condition it comes out of this war in. I would expect more of the same in regards to arms shipments and support for the near future, with small incremental steps being taking by NATO and only increasing the amount and types of support directly in relation to escalatory actions by Russia.
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Jan 19, 2023 09:38
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Charliegrs posted:Oh man I bet western Intel agencies can't wait to find out how they fare against Javelins
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Jan 19, 2023 09:40
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If you went by the social media consensus Ukraine should've been at the gates of Moscow by now. The question of how a T-14 fares against a Javelin is a bit misplaced. Nothing fares particularly well against ATGM. But with a good optics and sensor package and a good gun a tank can stay outside of the range of a lot of them, and that's exactly what Russia has been doing. And flight time of missiles at that range becomes significant. Afaik Ukraine's counter to tanks at range is artillery: Excalibur, SMART, BONUS, and other precision conversion kits.
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Jan 19, 2023 09:41
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Vietnom nom nom posted:Yeah we will see if they actually get used or end up just going forward enough for a photo OP. Russia can indeed build great tanks if they are not constrained by the corruption of their MIC and state apparatus, which could possibly happen if Russia goes on total war footing. But the more bells and whistles a thing has the more testing and fixing it requires to work too. Like you wouldn't want your armata to go into action, shrug off a bunch of hits but then having the tank suddenly stop during the assault while deep inside Ukrainian lines due to some software problems or something burning out their engines. Which would be to the chagrin of the undamaged crew in the crew capsules as both sides then desperately tries to destroy the tanks as the fight rages on.
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Jan 19, 2023 09:50
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Dick Ripple posted:Maybe in a few decades we will found out what is actually being said between NATO partners in regards to sending equipment, and in particular modern MBTs to Ukraine. While Germany keeps coming up with reasons for not sending or allowing others to export the Leopard 2, Scholz has said they do not want to 'burn all bridges' to Russia by being the largest exporter of arms to Ukraine behind the US. I would go on to say that this is true of most NATO nations, as this war will end one day and they will have to deal with Russia in whatever condition it comes out of this war in. German officials have been pretty clear that there's nothing preventing anyone from sending Leopard 2. File for re-export, the Ministry of the Economy is going to grant it, and it'll go to the Sicherheitsrat. Scholz isn't going to blow up the government over it by overruling the vice chancellor. Nobody is filing because you can talk mad poo poo without actually having to do anything of substance. If there is anything of substance happening, it'll be behind closed doors within NATO, not on Twitter. And I don't want to alarm Russia, but by some metrics Germany already is the largest exporter of arms behind the US, for what that's worth. (The metrics are all poo poo, though) It's not like there are any bridges left to burn.
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Jan 19, 2023 09:58
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Zudgemud posted:Like you wouldn't want your armata to go into action, shrug off a bunch of hits but then having the tank suddenly stop during the assault while deep inside Ukrainian lines due to some software problems or something burning out their engines. Which would be to the chagrin of the undamaged crew in the crew capsules as both sides then desperately tries to destroy the tanks as the fight rages on. Armata - Tesla of tanks.
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Jan 19, 2023 09:59
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Gervasius posted:Armata - Tesla of tanks. This is the only Tesla of tanks I will accept  For actual content, Antigravitas raises a good point; yes it was dumb for Germany to drag their heels since the start, but after giving Ukraine top-of-the-line mobile heavy artillery it does seem weirdly cagey for them to continue to stick their noses up at supplying MBT's. Russia didn't attack NATO after dozens of munitions blew up targets deep within Russia proper. There's a line somewhere but we can say now NATO-supplied tanks objectively isn't it. I'm not sure Canada would supply Leopard's if Germany finally gave the go ahead, but I'm further pissed that their political/strategic stupidity is holding us back too in this regard.
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Jan 19, 2023 10:53
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Orthanc6 posted:This is the only Tesla of tanks I will accept Don't forget, Germany not only supplied PzH 2000 mobile artillery, but also several HIMARS-launchers, which makes Scholz "no MBT"-stance even dumber.
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Jan 19, 2023 12:32
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M270, not HIMARS. Or more specifically, Mars II, the German M270 variant that can't use cluster munitions. I don't really think he can get out of supplying MBT from active service stocks, but it should be clear that what Ukraine requires to modernise its active tank fleet far exceeds the entire active tank stock Germany owns.
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Jan 19, 2023 12:57
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Poland ramping up the pressure on Germany. Poland Suggests Sending German-Made Tanks to Ukraine Without Berlin’s OK Germany says it won’t allow allies to give its Leopard tanks to Ukraine until the U.S. sends American-made main battle tanks https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland..._mobilewebshare
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Jan 19, 2023 13:10
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the heat goes wrong posted:Poland ramping up the pressure on Germany. Are we gonna "misplace" 100 tanks near our border with Ukraine again?
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Jan 19, 2023 13:22
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the heat goes wrong posted:Poland ramping up the pressure on Germany. Poland is just flagrantly lying again. They could force Scholz to make an active decision right now by asking for re-export. We'd hear about it within hours. Germany has absolutely not said that it won't allow allies to give Leopards to Ukraine until the U.S. sends Abrams. Even the poorly sourced articles referring to a private call between Scholz and Biden don't claim that.
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Jan 19, 2023 13:30
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Antigravitas posted:German officials have been pretty clear that there's nothing preventing anyone from sending Leopard 2. File for re-export, the Ministry of the Economy is going to grant it, and it'll go to the Sicherheitsrat. Scholz isn't going to blow up the government over it by overruling the vice chancellor. According to the BBC that is not the case. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64329059 quote:So why is Mr. Scholz dithering over their delivery? All indications are that he will allow third countries to supply their Leopards - The Germanc Vice Chancellor said so a week or so ago. But Mr. Scholz ahs not yet commited. He's cautious for several reasons. But Germany putting the ball 100% in the US's court in regards to sending tanks is expected.
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Jan 19, 2023 13:31
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Mederlock posted:If the Germans are really held up by a lack of commitment of American tanks, before they'll give the blessing for the transfer of Leopard II's, what's the viability of throwing together an upgrade package on what's left of the M60 stock, pick up a bunch from the nations that the USA sold them to, and pushing those forward as an alternative to providing Abrams I'm not sure there is much if anything left of the M60 stock. Most of them were, last time I checked, dumped into the Gulf of Mexico for artificial reefs. Plus they've been out of US service for 30 years at this point so even if we had enough of them you'd have to call in a bunch of long-retired graybeards to instruct Ukrainians. It might actually be easier to get the DOD to cough up old M1s. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 13:39 on Jan 19, 2023 |
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Jan 19, 2023 13:33
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Dick Ripple posted:According to the BBC that is not the case. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64329059 The same article also says that yes, it is the case. The quote is about hypothetical tanks delivered by Germany, the pledges from other countries are a separate issue. Like the article you've quoted reiterates, Germany would say yes if someone not Germany wants to send their Leo-2s. But no-one has filed any requests for re-export yet, so there's not even a decision to be made yet.
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Jan 19, 2023 13:40
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I don't see how saying they didn't officially apply for an export license is an excuse. You wouldn't send the official request at all unless you know it's going to be allowed. Are the other countries really expected to cause a diplomatic quagmire and hope germany's coalition doesn't break apart over it simply because Scholz is to scared to say yes himself ?
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