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Somaen posted:What's stupid about attacking Moscow, with its command centers and logistics hubs? Is it another red line not to be crossed or else Moscow will go super Saiyan or use nukes? Attacking Moscow would be a great way to lose military support from the USA and Europe since it increases the risk of nukes. Meanwhile the more air defenses there are in Moscow, the fewer there are at strategic bomber bases.
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Jan 19, 2023 19:43
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/EricSchmittNYT/status/1615903757769875456 Smells like boiled frog in here.
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Jan 19, 2023 19:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Really afraid of small drones, huh. To be fair, Ukraine has shown the abilty to conduct operations on the Kerch Bridge, and have demonstrated ingenuity with small drones. It's still a hilarious picture, though. Edit: evil_bunnY posted:https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-send-infantry-fighting-vehicles-ukraine-2023-01-19/ I saw a demonstration video on YouTube of one of those driving down the roading, stopping, deploying, firing 6 rounds, undeploying, and leaving, all in something like 90 seconds. It was impressive. Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Jan 19, 2023 |
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Jan 19, 2023 20:05
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Hm, Boris Pistorius, the new Minister of Defense, just called the war "a cruel war of extermination against a sovereign country" in his first speech in office. That's a bit more direct than I expected, to be honest.
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Jan 19, 2023 20:20
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https://twitter.com/fromTGA/status/1616112930180808708
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Jan 19, 2023 21:09
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StarBegotten posted:How likely is putting up air defences in Moscow just theatre for the domestic market? How about this long shot of a guess.. What if this is setting the props for a false flag attack on Russia, from within Ukraine? Say, from sufficiently close to the front lines that they could claim it was UA that fired at the Kremlin, but have the SAM sites conveniently setup to shoot them down... Thus leading to the fabricated justification that tactical nuclear weapons are to start being used against UA offensives in the Spring.. or a strategic nuclear weapon to be used against Kyiv or Lviv. They don't even need to put a live warhead on the false flag strike missile to claim that it was a genuine attack on Russia's capital and strategic command and control, and thus unlock their strategic nuclear doctrine. Absolutely freaking terrifying to consider... But we don't know how this is going to go down right now (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 19, 2023 21:09
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Absolutely freaking terrifying
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Jan 19, 2023 21:11
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Also hilarious when the Kremlin accidentally gets nuked by its troops. Boris: I thought you said the AA was on? Ivan: That was an invite to the alcoholics group! Boris: gently caress, I'm drunk.
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Jan 19, 2023 21:13
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Dandywalken posted:Absolutely freaking terrifying 
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Jan 19, 2023 21:17
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Ynglaur posted:To be fair, Ukraine has shown the abilty to conduct operations on the Kerch Bridge, and have demonstrated ingenuity with small drones. UA has shown ability to launch small scale long distance attacks yes, but Im not conviced it was UA that organized the kerch bridge attack. Considering what came after, id bet that Prigozin guy had something to do with it, if not for the sole purpose of diverting more Russian assets to the Donetsk front and away from kherson front.
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Jan 19, 2023 21:33
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Orthanc6 posted:If it's a concern over an internal threat that's even better for Ukraine, though also a terrifying implication. But it would probably also be a waste, if Russia is going to splinter most of the threat will be from the ground, I don't see air battles over Moscow being a major thing even in the craziest of scenarios. It would take a lot of planning an conspirators to mount a successful ground-based attack against Putin, quite possibly a lot more than is possible without being caught. On the other hand, a single fighter pilot who happens to know where Putin is and who takes off with a bomb under his wing could in principle bomb him.
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Jan 19, 2023 21:51
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Tuna-Fish posted:It would take a lot of planning an conspirators to mount a successful ground-based attack against Putin, quite possibly a lot more than is possible without being caught. Heh, May 9 of each year is the place we all know where he usually is.
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Jan 19, 2023 22:25
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I wouldn't be surprised if those AA systems are without any missiles and they are placed around Moscow only to signal to population that the 'threat' from Ukraine is very serious indeed and it's totally not only propaganda nonsense.
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Jan 19, 2023 22:43
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Is it even a first time that they have done it in Moscow? I remember such deployments in e.g. New York City following WTC. It could even be a rehearsal for all we know. Or maybe they have been informed that Mathias Rust would like to discuss with Putin...
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Jan 19, 2023 23:03
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January 17-19 round-up Really busy couple of days, and Ramstein hasn't even begun. No deep dives, at least. Regular news: According to Lithuanian defence minister, hundreds of Leopards will be pledged tomorrow at Ramstein. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/several-countries-announce-sending-leopard-tanks-ukraine-lithuania-2023-01-19/ The geo reference is https://t.me/yaremshooter/807 https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1615066300086382600 Of the latest EUR 18bn aid to Ukraine, 3bn are unconditional, and everything else is coming with the standard EU terms on rule of law, corruption prevention, and so on. The article has a long list of detailed conditions, I suggest reading it. https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/what-are-the-conditions-for-eus-e18-billion-for-ukraine/ Interior minister Monastyrsky, together with his deputy Yenin and secretary Lubkovich, amongst the 18 dead in a helicopter crash near a nursery school in Kyiv. 29 further wounded. Klymenko, Ukraine's police chief, has been named the acting head of the ministry for now, and the cause of crash has yet to be determined. https://www.ft.com/content/0eec89b9-a952-4744-98d7-d13da37b2a87 https://t.me/Denys_Smyhal/4327 Remember Kiryeyev, the Ukrainian negotiator/alleged spy who got killed in March? According to Budanov, he tipped off Ukrainian intelligence on specific plans for the invasion on February 23, possibly making the difference for Kyiv defence. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-spy-or-ukrainian-hero-the-strange-death-of-denys-kiryeyev-11674059395 A senior representative of German MIC says that it's now producing stuff without requiring preoders, due to a meteoric rise in demand. https://www.ft.com/content/d63f7298-f6e8-4b1d-95e1-92437747d67e According to NYT sources, Biden's administration is moving in the direction of more practical deliberations about retaking Crimea. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html Putin has published a draft law on withdrawing Russia from all Council of Europe agreements. As per project, the agreements will count denounced as of March 16, 2022, when Russia was booted from CoE for the war. https://sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/279220-8#bh_histras He's also getting worried about the crude oil discount's effect on Russia's liquidity. https://www.ft.com/content/8a5f4681-9592-469f-b223-a939dcbbf3f3 Ukraine has bought an assload of fuel derived from Russian oil via Bulgaria. https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/investigation-ukraine-buys-huge-amounts-of-russian-fuels-from-bulgaria/ In general, there seems to be quite the internal debacle going there about Bulgaria's support for Ukraine. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/bulgarian-politicians-still-do-not-officially-recognise-arms-exports-to-ukraine/ The trigger for it all is a die Welt investigation. https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland...und-Diesel.html Dutch Patriot announced for Ukraine, making their total count 3. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-send-patriot-missile-defence-system-ukraine-anp-2023-01-17/ Latvia is going to supply helicopters to Ukraine. Not exactly sure if it's more than 2, since our army has like whole 3, but hey. https://rus.delfi.lv/news/daily/latvia/stinger-vertolety-i-drony-latviya-otpravit-v-ukrainu-novuyu-partiyu-voennoj-pomoschi.d?id=55137562 Canada has announced 200 Senator APCs for Ukraine. https://www.canada.ca/en/department...d-vehicles.html Sweden has announced 50 CV90 IFVs and an unspecified number of Archer SPGs for Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-send-infantry-fighting-vehicles-ukraine-2023-01-19/ UK has announced 600 Brimstones for Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-send-600-brimstone-missiles-help-ukraine-defence-minister-2023-01-19/ Also, maybe this is only me missing it, but the Challenger package does “hundreds more armoured and protective vehicles”, supposedly including like a hundred or two FV430 Mk.3 in the package. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-defence-minister-sets-out-further-military-aid-package-ukraine-2023-01-16/ Scholz has said that there are ongoing discussions about supplying tanks to Ukraine, but nothing specific. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/scholz-says-in-talks-with-allies-about-sending-tanks-to-ukraine While we wait, here's your supplementary fact sheet on Leopards in Europe. https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2023/01/ukraine-can-the-german-leopard-change-its-spots Also, while Scholz is consulting with everyone, it seems that unnamed German officials are starting to tell quite everyone that US tanks are required for German approval, including Reuters just today. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-german-defense-ministers-meet-differences-emerge-over-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-19/ Yet today Pistorius is saying that there's no such condition. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-need-german-us-tanks-be-sent-ukraine-simultaneously-defence-minister-2023-01-19/ After meeting with Lloyd Austin to discuss tanks, the point of which was reportedly to pressure Germany to do something on its own. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-german-defense-ministers-meet-differences-emerge-over-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-19/ https://t.me/bbbreaking/145938 Michel calls for tanks for Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-michel/eus-michel-backs-tanks-delivery-to-ukraine-idINP6N32B02E According to Politico, France is considering offering Leclercs to Ukraine. https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-germany-joe-biden-united-states-ukraine-war-tanks-leopards-waiting/ Further US aid for Ukraine could be announced as soon as the end of this week. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-1-17-23/h_1143fb9186fd4ca01f1f03c31fb46df5 Could be more Bradleys already, and an introduction of Strykers, but definitely not ATACMS. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/18/politics/us-ukraine-tanks/index.html Also, not Abra(ha)ms. https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/pentagon-looks-to-shift-dynamic-in-ukraine-war-without-abrams-tanks/ But possibly GLSDB. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/18/major-military-package-ukraine-russia-00078331 The US is shipping to Ukraine artillery shells from less advertised stockpiles in Israel and South Korea. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html Sberbank is opening offices in Crimea, which have been notably absent up until now, due to sanctions fears. https://www.rbc.ru/finances/18/01/2023/63c7b4ad9a794719bbfba8fa Kazakhstan has announced immigration restrictions, with 90-day stay duration limit for Russians. http://law.gov.kz/client/#!/doc/177676/rus Life in prison for a Swedish intelligence employee convicted of spying for Russia. His brother is also getting prison time. https://www.aklagare.se/nyheter-press/pressmeddelanden/2023/januari/aklagarna-kommenterar-dom-om-grovt-spioneri/ Supposedly, Zelenskyy has survived at least 12 distinct assassination attempts in 2022. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/zelensky-assassination-us-warning-bill-burns-b2263095.html EU's motion to come up with an ICC equivalent for the war is slowly taking shape. https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/eu-eyes-prosecutor-for-russias-crimes-in-ukraine/ Even if it's not particularly clear how it is going to work de jure. https://euobserver.com/ukraine/156485 Purportedly, Armata tanks exist in a sufficient quantity and quality to make an appearance. https://t.me/bbcrussian/40555 “Children with special developmental needs will be united into a pro-war organization.” https://t.me/mozhemobyasnit/14423 Looks that Russian army is beginning to use police databases for the mobilization. Someone's speciality got changed to “driver” in absentia. https://t.me/Taygainfo/38246 An article from last week about engineering efforts behind drone-dropped grenades. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-grenade.html https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1615960803932241921 Meeting with Michel, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine plans to meet opening benchmarks by the end of the year, thereby moving on to the stage of negotiating positions. https://censor.net/ru/news/3394378/ukraina_uje_v_etom_godu_doljna_vyyiti_na_nachalo_peregovorov_po_chlenstvu_v_es_zelenskiyi Hold up, Lavrov, I thought you clarified last year that Hitler was a Jew?  https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1615663991447068672 Davos going on, here are speeches from Zelenskyy, Zelenska, and Scholz as a random sample of the more related ones (note: I'm absolutely not watching them all, might be something else interesting too). Scholz's speech is really only remarkable in that he cannot say “Ukraine” and “win” in the same sentence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tp8mcd04D4o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0-XNo7brp4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWTJhGczvso Iran does recognize neither Crimea, nor Donbas as Russian. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPao5fq_zSA As a side note, Vardanyan is doing some weird poo poo in Nagorno-Karabakh. https://www.ft.com/content/6db56197-49ff-4a78-a656-06193dfcefa3 Other summaries: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-17-18 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-16-17 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-13-16 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-17-18 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-16-17 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-15-16 https://zona.media/chronicle/330 https://zona.media/chronicle/329 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-18-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-17-2023 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Jan 19, 2023 |
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Jan 19, 2023 23:03
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loving Germany, I spent like a whole two hours updating links about the tank-gate, and it still ended up being an unreadable pile of poo poo. TL;DR from my perspective is it looks like Scholz has been screamed down behind the scenes, and Lambrecht's resignation is closely related to it all.
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Jan 19, 2023 23:12
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Well it might come to a head sooner than anticipated https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1616201999845888000?t=TfmNlLJVrsD6DDmBEFXoPg&s=19
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Jan 19, 2023 23:34
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It's possible, but I have my doubts. I gave Lambrecht the benefit of the doubt in the beginning, but wow, she went from one dumb idiocy to the next. Just an uninterrupted series of the stupidest things. The last thing she did was manufacture her own G36-alike scandal with the Pumas and had to embarassingly and quietly walk back later. She just turned into more and more of a liability. I'm pretty sure the Puma fuckuppery cost her the minister post. She was supposed to unfuck procurement, not gently caress up procurement of the new IFV further.
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Jan 19, 2023 23:39
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Antigravitas posted:I'm pretty sure the Puma fuckuppery cost her the minister post. She was supposed to unfuck procurement, not gently caress up procurement of the new IFV further. I could see that as well, sine Pistorius seems to be there for managerial chops in major part now, and Germany's been self-critical enough of Bundeswher equipment issues even before last February.
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Jan 19, 2023 23:45
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Antigravitas posted:It's possible, but I have my doubts. Lambrecht's other public failings aside, I kinda doubt you can nail any ministers of defense on Germany's procurement problems specifically. These problems go back all the way to the beginning of the republic. And arguably, even the Nazis like to sink inordinate amounts of resources into completely unusable vanity projects like Wonder Wepons or medium bombers and jets that were also supposed to be dive bombers. Or the world's most capable tanks on paper that fall apart once they are driven on actual road instead of lab benches.
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Jan 20, 2023 00:26
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Lord Stimperor posted:Lambrecht's other public failings aside, I kinda doubt you can nail any ministers of defense on Germany's procurement problems specifically. These problems go back all the way to the beginning of the republic. And arguably, even the Nazis like to sink inordinate amounts of resources into completely unusable vanity projects like Wonder Wepons or medium bombers and jets that were also supposed to be dive bombers. Or the world's most capable tanks on paper that fall apart once they are driven on actual road instead of lab benches. Hey, now let's be fair, if the allies had known how many resources that poo poo could possibly drain, they'd probably have sent help to Heinkel and the Horten brothers to make even more batshit projects for the Nazis. Though stuff like the Lerche at least looks cool, even if I have to highly doubt that tech in the 1940s could have made that thing work as anything other than a big firecracker.
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Jan 20, 2023 01:09
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1616211435666739205?s=20&t=bux86tWEfDZkX7TUoaTT9A
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Jan 20, 2023 01:35
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Man the materiel floodgates are really opening. Kinda does not bode well, kinda suggests that they expect enough fighting coming that all that stuff is gonna be used (up)
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Jan 20, 2023 02:02
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aphid_licker posted:Man the materiel floodgates are really opening. Kinda does not bode well, kinda suggests that they expect enough fighting coming that all that stuff is gonna be used (up) There’s been a trickle of editorials that Russian mobilisation has been reasonably effective, and therefore now Ukraine has a narrow window of opportunity to run another major offensive operation before they’ll be forced to hunker down for a bit. NYT is the primary printer of those, if you want to read some. This week specifically there’s also some talk about these being replacement packages, rather than capacity growth - for stuff like IFV inventory counts at least.
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Jan 20, 2023 02:11
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1616211435666739205?s=20&t=bux86tWEfDZkX7TUoaTT9A This looks like this could be a PDA package, which would mean that GLSDB could still appear tomorrow.
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Jan 20, 2023 02:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There’s been a trickle of editorials that Russian mobilisation has been reasonably effective, and therefore now Ukraine has a narrow window of opportunity to run another major offensive operation before they’ll be forced to hunker down for a bit. NYT is the primary printer of those, if you want to read some. where are you seeing that the IFVs are intended to be replacements?
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Jan 20, 2023 02:24
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Herstory Begins Now posted:where are you seeing that the IFVs are intended to be replacements? I mean that I’ve seen some idle speculation that giving Ukraine hundreds of APCs and IFVs now could merely get them to some past level of total number of IFVs or APCs, or their deployment density, or some such, making up for losses of the Soviet gear throughout the year more so than expanding their mechanised forces dramatically. No one big name, like Kofman, or with numbers interesting enough to otherwise post it here for a dissection.
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Jan 20, 2023 02:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There’s been a trickle of editorials that Russian mobilisation has been reasonably effective, and therefore now Ukraine has a narrow window of opportunity to run another major offensive operation before they’ll be forced to hunker down for a bit. NYT is the primary printer of those, if you want to read some. To your point, this was published tonight: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/19/world/europe/ukraine-weapons-allies.html A personal update: My friend was on the front for 7 months near Kramatorsk and I got to video chat with him on New Year's Eve. We didn't get into much detail about location because SBU is always listening, but he told me quite the horror story of six Russian tanks assaulting his position in the spring. Those massive artillery strikes after Russia retreated and redeployed to the east did a number on his mental health. Another friend who is in the 128th Zakarpattia Brigade posts daily updates, but conditions are miserable as you might expect.
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Jan 20, 2023 03:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Hold up, Lavrov, I thought you clarified last year that Hitler was a Jew? Russians being treated like Jews in the Nazi Holocaust (for things like not being allowed to shop in Paris) isn't a new thing for their propaganda. This wonderful video was shown on state TV repeatedly last summer. (warning: has racial slur at the end) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeIjDxbAZeM 
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Jan 20, 2023 04:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There’s been a trickle of editorials that Russian mobilisation has been reasonably effective, and therefore now Ukraine has a narrow window of opportunity to run another major offensive operation before they’ll be forced to hunker down for a bit. NYT is the primary printer of those, if you want to read some. Lots of WSJ articles about this too. It sounds like the urgency for armor is so large in part because the quality of western weapons like the Bradley should help offset some of the numerical advantages the Russians are going to have later on as they complete mobilization. This is nerve wracking. I hope Ukraine gets what they need in time to launch an offensive. I think this next battle could be decisive.
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Jan 20, 2023 07:17
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Very good https://twitter.com/sebastienroblin/status/1616258362806620160
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Jan 20, 2023 08:22
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what terrible fate befell Bradley #60
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Jan 20, 2023 08:45
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Lord Stimperor posted:Lambrecht's other public failings aside, I kinda doubt you can nail any ministers of defense on Germany's procurement problems specifically. These problems go back all the way to the beginning of the republic. And arguably, even the Nazis like to sink inordinate amounts of resources into completely unusable vanity projects like Wonder Wepons or medium bombers and jets that were also supposed to be dive bombers. Or the world's most capable tanks on paper that fall apart once they are driven on actual road instead of lab benches. Oh you have no idea. You totally can name very specific ministers. Behold, wikipedia (auto-translated) quote:In 2011, de Maizière, as the then Defence Minister, decided that spare parts would only be purchased when they were necessary. Since the industry also failed to stockpile them sufficiently, this led to the disclosure of serious deficiencies in the operational readiness of aircraft, helicopters and other equipment in 2018.
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Jan 20, 2023 08:50
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BBC correspondent Steve Rosenberg is back in Moscow and he's posted a new Reading Russia: https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status/1616339332079525890 I always find these pretty interesting.
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Jan 20, 2023 09:28
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Finland is sending a new materials package to Ukraine, worth of 400 million euros. So the latest package more than doubles the cost of materials sent so far. The specifics are kept secret. Apparently this package is possible because Sweden have given some sort of guarantees to help Finland if needed. https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/finland-to-deliver-more-defence-materiel-to-ukraine
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Jan 20, 2023 09:37
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I assume that other countries would follow if the Netherlands did this https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1616354956369338368
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Jan 20, 2023 10:10
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-need-german-us-tanks-be-sent-ukraine-simultaneously-defence-minister-2023-01-19/ https://archive.is/HHp0y (paywall) Also https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/several-countries-announce-sending-leopard-tanks-ukraine-lithuania-2023-01-19/ quote:TAPA MILITARY BASE, Estonia, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Several countries will announce sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Friday at a meeting at the German Ramstein Air Base, the Lithuanian defence minister said on Thursday. Everything else about tanks is still a confusing contradictory mess and likely will remain that way until ramstein talks conclude
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Jan 20, 2023 10:14
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Charlz Guybon posted:I assume that other countries would follow if the Netherlands did this It also states it has 26 f-35 with 18 on order (Fair bet the Netherlands Air Force is currently looking to move to f-35's as it's main combat aircraft.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Netherlands_Air_Force#Current_inventory edit: ↓↓ yep, I'm an idiot. Just fixed it! ↓↓ dr_rat fucked around with this message at 10:44 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 10:32
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You mean F16
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Jan 20, 2023 10:40
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There are a few people who make quite tidy sums of money by whenever a large procurement order is made by a country buying a ton of spare parts for that vehicle or piece of kit while the production lines are running and they're extremely cheap, sticking them in a warehouse for 20-25 years and waiting for the state to come running when it needs to keep the stuff running past the original end-of-use date and the original supply of spares has all dried up.
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