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Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1617807377490935808

I can't imagine approvals being given for training if approvals for re-export weren't in the works or Poland just does it anyway.

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beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

https://www.zeit.de/politik/2023-01/polen-beantragt-genehmigung-fuer-leopard-lieferung-an-ukraine Poland filled out the form.

Gravitas Shortfall
Jul 17, 2007

Utility is seven-eighths Proximity.


The AP link:
Poland seeks Germany’s permission to send tanks to Ukraine

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Is there any analysis that tries to explain Germany's dithering on the tanks issue? It's such a strange situation

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

sexy tiger boobs posted:

Citation needed... Russia doesn't have anywhere near that capability with conventional arms. For evidence - the entire war to this point.

You kidding??? Those constant strikes that severely degraded Ukrainian power infrastructure have also been directed at strategic military targets. For example, the training locations outside of Lviv where foreign volunteers were hit early in the war. Ukraine has to constantly move and disguise its valuable assets because Russia can strike anywhere in the country with conventional, long-ranged munitions.

This has been going on since the beginning of the war. There isn't a single location in Ukraine that's particularly safe from strikes, although Kviv now seems to have enough anti-air coverage to repel most of what is sent in its direction. It's bizarre to me that anyone would dispute this, particularly given the depth of coverage on their recent terror campaign.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-strikes-kill-at-least-7-in-western-ukrainian-city-of-lviv-say-officials

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/06/ukraine-russian-attacks-energy-grid-threaten-civilians

Vox Nihili fucked around with this message at 11:33 on Jan 24, 2023

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

Chalks posted:

Is there any analysis that tries to explain Germany's dithering on the tanks issue? It's such a strange situation

I haven't seen anything concrete but it feels cultural to me. Germans will (broadly speaking) always just do whatever the government says, and in lieu of clear messaging they stay the course, so since German domestic needs dictate their foreign policy it seems like Scholz feels comfortable assuming he can ride the gap of just not saying anything for as long as it takes until things work out in his favour. And from a domestic standpoint he's not wrong, lovely as it is - the situation at home is more than okay, so long as empathy doesn't enter into it (and why would it? Business is business and there's no longer any pressing existential threat, as they briefly feared with energy supply)

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

boofhead posted:

I haven't seen anything concrete but it feels cultural to me. Germans will (broadly speaking) always just do whatever the government says, and in lieu of clear messaging they stay the course, so since German domestic needs dictate their foreign policy it seems like Scholz feels comfortable assuming he can ride the gap of just not saying anything for as long as it takes until things work out in his favour. And from a domestic standpoint he's not wrong, lovely as it is - the situation at home is more than okay, so long as empathy doesn't enter into it (and why would it? Business is business and there's no longer any pressing existential threat, as they briefly feared with energy supply)

I don't really understand the end goal though. As in, this is causing damage to both Germany's reputation internationally and its arms industry, so the delaying isn't without cost. They've already directly supplied heavy weapons to Ukraine, so it's not like they're going to be on Russia's good side as a neutral country.

Was does it mean for it to "work out in his favor"? Why would leopards in 3 months be some huge improvement on leopards last month? Surely he doesn't expect to wait the war out at this point, Poland will just call their bluff at some point

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Chalks posted:

Is there any analysis that tries to explain Germany's dithering on the tanks issue? It's such a strange situation
Countries dithering on tanks issue:
Germany
USA
France
Denmark
Canada
Greece
Sweden
Austria
And a lot more.

Countries not dithering (Based on this list):
Poland
Czech Republic
UK
North Macedonia
Slovenia
Morocco

I'm not saying that I'm happy that Germany isn't leading on this and instead dragging their feet (quite the contrary, I want them to open the floodgates), but it is wrong to suggest that it is only Germany dithering or blocking with everybody enthusiastically delivering or wanting to deliver tanks.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 11:56 on Jan 24, 2023

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

I wonder if the countries that were being helped/liberated by the allies in WWII all had formal contracts with them.

Hi, since it's a thorn in my side - Poland had the spoken guarantee that in case if we got attacked France and UK would send help immideatly. We all know how it went out :argh:

Overall WW2 was the reason to create NATO and other solid alliances not based on marriage or other ties between rulers. With written agreements and contracts and whatnot. Precisely because we got screwed.



Oh yeah. We're currently in the part between "gently caress around" and "find out" when it comes to German diplomacy. I hope they won't block it, and we get a constant stream of Leo 2's send to the front. They might very well be the thing that's needed for some significant front changes.

...since what I've seen from playing War Thunder the Leo 2 is a loving murder machine :v:


Speaking of fronts, the combat is still happening but the movement of troops is pretty much frozen, isn't it? Even though Russia is making some advancements, they are not very significant. Or at least don't seem one.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Chalks posted:

Is there any analysis that tries to explain Germany's dithering on the tanks issue? It's such a strange situation

I mean there's tons of those, particularly in German language, but ultimately it comes down to the ways of Olaf Scholz being inscrutable. And he seems to like it that way.

My strictly personal impression:

Scholz certainly doesn't want Russia to win. But they shouldn't lose too hard either.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Kikas posted:

Speaking of fronts, the combat is still happening but the movement of troops is pretty much frozen, isn't it? Even though Russia is making some advancements, they are not very significant. Or at least don't seem one.

Systemic “face-to-face” combat is happening only in Bakhmut and Kreminna areas, at a daily frontline movement speed measures in metres, if at all.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
The Moroccan tanks is new and positive news. They've apparently sent 20 T72s to Czechia already to be modernised/prepped this week, and have a contract in place to send up to 120 over the coming weeks. Speculation is they'll have the tanks replaced by Abrams from the US given they also operate those tanks.

There are a few other African operators of the tank too that could hopefully be bribed with money or Abrams to send their Soviet origin tanks to Ukraine, it could hopefully result in a couple hundred tanks for Ukraine in the short term overall.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/ukraine-conflict/1674409784-morocco-gives-tanks-to-ukraine-report

https://www.military.africa/2022/12/morocco-choose-sides-supplies-t-72b-tanks-to-ukraine/

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Blut posted:

The Moroccan tanks is new and positive news. They've apparently sent 20 T72s to Czechia already to be modernised/prepped this week, and have a contract in place to send up to 120 over the coming weeks.

I'm kind of confused by that, as Wikipedia says - with a citation needed marker - that "14 T-72M were delivered in 2021 from the Czech Republic." Morocco was buying T-72Ms from Czech Republic in 2021?

I'm also surprised that Morocco was buying T-72s, apparently from Belarus, in 1999-2000 - and it looks like they're going to send essentially all of them back if they do send 120. I thought Morocco was always very firmly aligned with the USA, military-wise and geopolitically, both for historical cultural affinity and especially since Algeria was so USSR-leaning back in the day. Even population wise, it looks like 77% of Moroccans had a favorable view of the USA in 1999.

It looks like Iraq is the only other country with a lot of T-72s that could potentially be convinced to sell them to Ukraine through third parties with promised US replacements that hasn't already done so - from my very non-expert view. The other major operators (>250 tanks) are Algeria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Syria, Kazakhstan, Iran, India, and Sudan and they are (a) unlikely to go against Russia and (b) are anyway not on good enough terms with the West to get tanks as replacement, except for India, which won't do it because of (a). Although India definitely could get away with it, and just won't.

Sereri
Sep 30, 2008

awwwrigami

beer_war posted:

Scholz certainly doesn't want Russia to win. But they shouldn't lose too hard either.

It's this, plus Scholz being an rear end in a top hat generally and also a fan of Rage against the machine, specifically the outro of Killing in the Name.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Vox Nihili posted:

You kidding??? Those constant strikes that severely degraded Ukrainian power infrastructure have also been directed at strategic military targets. For example, the training locations outside of Lviv where foreign volunteers were hit early in the war. Ukraine has to constantly move and disguise its valuable assets because Russia can strike anywhere in the country with conventional, long-ranged munitions.

This has been going on since the beginning of the war. There isn't a single location in Ukraine that's particularly safe from strikes, although Kviv now seems to have enough anti-air coverage to repel most of what is sent in its direction. It's bizarre to me that anyone would dispute this, particularly given the depth of coverage on their recent terror campaign.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-strikes-kill-at-least-7-in-western-ukrainian-city-of-lviv-say-officials

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/06/ukraine-russian-attacks-energy-grid-threaten-civilians

"Degraded" and "disrupted" is not the same as "destroyed."

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
There's still nothing I've seen that indicates Russia has any actual plan to affirmatively win the war.

Is "Ukraine and Russia grind each other into dust?" still a possible outcome? Sure. Ukraine can't bomb Russian industrial infrastructure and Russia can't bomb EU or American infrastructure, so this war can just continue as long as either side wants it to; Ukraine can never stop fighting because they have seen the alternative is genocide; Russia can't stop fighting till regime change happens which might be tomorrow or might be twenty years from now.

But that's not a scenario anyone *wins* except maybe Ukrainian children twenty years down the road. Russia can't replace its materiel losses due to sanctions and post-ussr collapse. It's going to come out of this the New North Korea, a pariah state totally dependent on and subservient to China. That's pretty much locked in at this point.

Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Jan 24, 2023

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Another wrinkle: Poland reportedly says it wants compensation from the EU for any Leopard tanks it might send to Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...tanks-if-needed

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

There's still nothing I've seen that indicates Russia has any actual plan to affirmatively win the war.

Is "Ukraine and Russia grind each other into dust?" still a possible outcome? Sure. Ukraine can't bomb Russian industrial infrastructure and Russia can't bomb EU or American infrastructure, so this war can just continue as long as either side wants it to; Ukraine can never stop fighting because they have seen the alternative is genocide; Russia can't stop fighting till regime change happens which might be tomorrow or might be twenty years from now.

But that's not a scenario anyone *wins* except maybe Ukrainian children twenty years down the road. Russia can't replace its materiel losses due to sanctions and post-ussr collapse. It's going to come out of this the New North Korea, a pariah state totally dependent on and subservient to China. That's pretty much locked in at this point.

I can see Ukraine getting back all of its territory but that will certainly involve attacking targets inside Russia as well. You can't drive an army back without attacking its supply lines and those will be at the other side of the border.

This will be quite, well, interesting. From a Russian point of view, the optics of getting beaten back out of Ukraine are already quite bad, getting bombed inside their own country will be a lot worse.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




uXs posted:

I can see Ukraine getting back all of its territory but that will certainly involve attacking targets inside Russia as well. You can't drive an army back without attacking its supply lines and those will be at the other side of the border.

This will be quite, well, interesting. From a Russian point of view, the optics of getting beaten back out of Ukraine are already quite bad, getting bombed inside their own country will be a lot worse.

They’re getting bombed already both inside the borders of Russia that they claim to have since the de jure annexation of the 4 regions of mainland Ukraine, in two of which they don’t even control capitals, in addition to getting bombed in its internationally recognised borders, both via drones at longer ranges, and via artillery (counter-)fire near, e.g., Kharkiv.

mlmp08 posted:

Another wrinkle: Poland reportedly says it wants compensation from the EU for any Leopard tanks it might send to Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...tanks-if-needed

This is a procedural thing, where they’re throwing the gauntlet down for Germany to not raise a stink for using the common EU funding earmarked for Ukraine’s military needs to compensate for these tanks.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

mlmp08 posted:

Another wrinkle: Poland reportedly says it wants compensation from the EU for any Leopard tanks it might send to Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...tanks-if-needed

That's less of a wrinkle than just how this thing works. The "Peace Facility" was (re)purposed as a reimbursement vehicle for nations that send equipment. Of course Poland would want reimbursement from it.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Vox Nihili posted:

You kidding??? Those constant strikes that severely degraded Ukrainian power infrastructure have also been directed at strategic military targets. For example, the training locations outside of Lviv where foreign volunteers were hit early in the war. Ukraine has to constantly move and disguise its valuable assets because Russia can strike anywhere in the country with conventional, long-ranged munitions.

This has been going on since the beginning of the war. There isn't a single location in Ukraine that's particularly safe from strikes, although Kviv now seems to have enough anti-air coverage to repel most of what is sent in its direction. It's bizarre to me that anyone would dispute this, particularly given the depth of coverage on their recent terror campaign.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-strikes-kill-at-least-7-in-western-ukrainian-city-of-lviv-say-officials

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/06/ukraine-russian-attacks-energy-grid-threaten-civilians

Hitting one training assembly center in a year does not make a strategic air campaign. Ukraine does have to move and disguise valuable assets, but that's how wars work. I agree that Ukraine is vulnerable to strikes, but probably not to the extent to significantly degrade their capabilities. But even if you assume that is the case, and Russia can run an effective air campaign against Ukranian military and industrial targets, you're ignoring the fact that Russia cannot strike the West. Ukraine is being supplied in large part by the West. Ukranian soldiers train elsewhere in Europe. Ukranian vehicles are repaired and overhauled in Polish, German, and Czech depots. The Russians cannot strike at any of these targets and all of them enable Ukraine's ability to continue to wage war.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
This is all true, but it's unclear that the Western supply isn't lower than Russian military production.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

OddObserver posted:

This is all true, but it's unclear that the Western supply isn't lower than Russian military production.

There is a substantial quality gap in some important areas like supply line disruption that means you don't need parity in quantity. Ukraine didn't equalize like artillery war by matching the number of Russian batteries and similar things will play out in the spring if they get GLSDBs. Bradleys might not outnumber Russian BMPs but they'll have an outsized impact if the BMPs have no artillery support and their repair yards are pushed back behind Russian boarders.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Antigravitas posted:

That's less of a wrinkle than just how this thing works. The "Peace Facility" was (re)purposed as a reimbursement vehicle for nations that send equipment. Of course Poland would want reimbursement from it.

The bigger question to me would be if the peace facility would reimburse Poland or others if they exported Leos without Germany’s permission. Looks like it probably will not come to that, though.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
I'll be curious to see if the diplomatic tension with Germany regarding tanks for Ukraine impacts the US procurement of its Bradley replacement. The Lynx is one of five current contenders, and on paper seems like a great match for what the US Army wants. It's a long procurement cycle so I don't think it would impact Rheinmetall's bid, but I''m not familiar enough with procurement at that level to do more than idly wonder.

I have to think that at a minimum the US would insist on full tech transfer and export rights, but who knows.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




January 22-24 round-up

Deep dives:

FT has a big piece on Wagner. https://www.ft.com/content/8c8b0568-cdd1-4529-a4fd-82e57983ddc5

Mediazona has written up the feasible explainer for Gerasimov-Teplinskiy (the VDV commander) spat. Not a deep dive per se, but quite interesting nevertheless. https://zona.media/article/2023/01/23/vdv

Unrelated to the thread, in all fairness, but NYT has a long rear end thing about the German army if anyone is curious. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/magazine/germany-military-army.html

Tenuously related, here's a deep dive into... luxury wine smuggling into Russia. https://theins.ru/korrupciya/258433

Long piece on Ukrainians looking for related PoWs in occupied territories. https://zona.media/article/2023/01/24/pow

A piece about a barista coordinating an informant network in then-occupied Kherson. https://zona.media/article/2023/01/24/barista

Regular news:

Baerbock says that Germany won't prevent Poland from providing Leopards to Ukraine. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114881,29386172,niemcy.html Apparently, these comments follow a heated argument between Lloyd Austin and Wolfgang Schmidt, Germany's head of the chancellery. https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/kampfpanzer-usa-bundeskanzler-scholz-1.5736789

Luckily for her, Poland has sent an export notification to the German government. I guess this means that the last-week request is either not Poland's, or someone is not telling something straight. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/europe/poland-germany-tanks-request-intl/index.html

Pistorius, meanwhile, has said that the German decision on tank shipment will be made soon. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/world/europe/germany-ukraine-tanks.html This comes from a meeting with Stoltenberg earlier today, who's saying now that “partners can start preparing tanks for transfer”. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rishennya-nimechchini-shchodo-leopard-bude-1674552716.html

Some Italian journalists estimate that 33-73 Leopard 2 tanks could be given to Ukraine by spring, with the total not exceeding 87 by summer. By the end of the year, their maths work out to 107 Leopard 2s and 88 Leopard 1s. https://www.quotidiano.net/esteri/carri-armati-leopard-tedeschi-1.8473623

Estonia, meantime, is clearing out its whole stock of 155mm artillery for Ukraine. https://www.facebook.com/100069092624537/posts/pfbid0b8jsrAE3g5NdUCCGae2f8TP7nFcb6Zp6uq4Q89akx5RkW6EnREQrxGLAugd4qCiWl/?app=fbl

Cyprus is ready to give its (presumably all 82) T-80U tanks to Ukraine, on an exchange scheme for Leopard 2s. Greece could be the intermediary provider of Leopards here, but they don't sound too enthusiastic. https://www.armyrecognition.com/def...opard_2a4s.html

Czechia denies the rumours that it's ready to offer Ukraine its Leopards. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/21/7154592/

Italy and France are wrapping up preparations for a SAMP-T system transfer to Ukraine, which apparently is super fancy. https://roma.corriere.it/notizie/po...02aae8xlk.shtml

Following the UAF food prices debacle and the deputy minister for infrastructure getting caught while receiving a $400k bribe, there's a big public shake-up going down in Ukraine. I'm not linking everything, as I don't feel that there's an interest proportionate to the effort required of me to summarize ~50 distinct articles on this I've chewed through as of the moment, but quite a few high-profile firings, resignations, investigations, and defensive statements going public, with further action promised by Zelenskyy for the week. For a lead piece in English, here's FT. https://www.ft.com/content/9b5da3fc-d408-4df2-84ca-48bdcbde594e

Michel says that the next 2–3 weeks are decisive for Ukraine, but this seems to be primarily hinting at debates behind decisions to offer Ukraine this or that aid. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/mishel-nazvav-nastupni-dva-tri-tizhni-virishalnimi-dlya-ukrajini-ostanni-novini-50299264.html

Kuleba implies that the fighter plane conversation has moved on from a standstill, possibly suggesting more news on February's Ramstein meeting. https://censor.net/ru/news/3395205/tema_predostavleniya_ukraine_samoletov_sdvinulas_s_mertvoyi_tochki_kuleba

Some rumblings about Leopards debacle's impact on German MIC's commercial prospects. https://www.ft.com/content/37ac7605-9b01-4f4a-a943-92842931d859

New law project introduced by Russia's parliamentary transportation committee, about a duty to reserve time, place, and the vehicle used for one's border crossing. https://zona.media/news/2023/01/24/zakon

A former FBI agent on Deripaska's case has been charged with laundering money for Deripaska. https://www.ft.com/content/8821883f-aa14-436b-b71a-df79cdc376b7

NYT has a piece looking at RFE/RL's work these days. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/world/europe/rfe-russia-ukraine.html

Pantsir-S1 spotted near Putin's Valday residence. This press outlet does further speculate that Pantsir-S1 deployments map to Putin's personal and his family's security details. https://t.me/agentstvonews/2364

Ukraine's first court case on helping Russia organize annexation “referenda” has concluded with 5 years of colony. https://suspilne.media/364680-persij-virok-za-organizaciu-psevdoreferendumu-zitelku-hersonsini-zasudili-na-pat-rokiv-turmi/

Alleged first sighting of IRIS-T in Ukraine. https://t.me/TyskNIP/3674

First sighting of a British Sea King helicopter in Ukrainian livery. https://t.me/csources/180445

Ukrainians using wire fences to catch Russian Lancet drones targeting their SPGs. https://t.me/csources/180646

Other summaries:

https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-21-23
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-20-21
https://zona.media/chronicle/335
https://zona.media/chronicle/334
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-23-2023
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-22-2023

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Jan 24, 2023

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

OddObserver posted:

This is all true, but it's unclear that the Western supply isn't lower than Russian military production.

I think that's potentially an issue in the short term but if Ukraine wants to buy hardware, particularly with the West's money, the production will be there. Stinger ramp up happened and was one of the more difficult things to ramp up.

Plus, you know, the qualitative edge, and access to advanced electronics necessary to produce top end hardware today.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
I don't think there's going to be a tank production issue. America literally has whole deserts full of extra tanks we aren't using.

The USSR had comparable stocks sure but most.of the ones that worked have been blown up by now and Russia doesn't have the industrial capacity to replace them. Russia isn't the USSR.

To be fair...
Feb 3, 2006
Film Producer
So I’m sure Scholtz sucks but I heard this on the radio and it’s good reminder to not assume reasons people act the way they do.

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/24/1150942783/germany-is-under-increased-pressure-to-send-its-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine

People have scars and shame. There’s plenty of reasons people don’t act out because of fear of past mistakes to say otherwise is disingenuous.

It’s a hard lump to swallow, a hard thing to get past. Years of “you did bad poo poo, you better not forget“ both internally and externally will warp perception. It’s not unlike people who hate the MIC spending on moral grounds having the reasoning to go “in this instance, it’s ok.” It could he compared to when you hold something as an absolute wrong and then having to grow and be open minded that maybe it’s ok in this instance.

All these statements are true:
Ukraine should get Abrams and Leopards.
This is a war of genocide.
People are really complex.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
^^^^^
But uncle Sam things they are unusable maintenance messes for using the same kind of engine as the T-80U.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

I think that's potentially an issue in the short term but if Ukraine wants to buy hardware, particularly with the West's money, the production will be there. Stinger ramp up happened and was one of the more difficult things to ramp up.

Plus, you know, the qualitative edge, and access to advanced electronics necessary to produce top end hardware today.

Well, one needs to survive to long term first.

I was mostly thinking of how Russia is still building down T-90Ms (though very slowly) and there isn't like a factory in Poland churning out T-64BM2s or something, and instead people are trying to put together numbers from small donations here and there.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




The most aggravating issue with Scholz is not any single decision he has or hasn’t made, but his manner of communication.

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




I listened to an interview this morning that explained the hold up is entirely down to Scholz and his faction, but nobody knows for certain exactly why they're doing it

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Saladman posted:

I'm kind of confused by that, as Wikipedia says - with a citation needed marker - that "14 T-72M were delivered in 2021 from the Czech Republic." Morocco was buying T-72Ms from Czech Republic in 2021?

There's a Czech company that specialises in total conversion kits for T-72 that give it modern Western optics and fire control system, new ERA, engine etc.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Nenonen posted:

There's a Czech company that specialises in total conversion kits for T-72 that give it modern Western optics and fire control system, new ERA, engine etc.

And they've announced an expansion to their facilities, in what seems to be some hybrid aquisition-hiring-merger affair with unspecified parts of Ukrainian MIC.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Saladman posted:

I'm kind of confused by that, as Wikipedia says - with a citation needed marker - that "14 T-72M were delivered in 2021 from the Czech Republic." Morocco was buying T-72Ms from Czech Republic in 2021?

I'm also surprised that Morocco was buying T-72s, apparently from Belarus, in 1999-2000 - and it looks like they're going to send essentially all of them back if they do send 120. I thought Morocco was always very firmly aligned with the USA, military-wise and geopolitically, both for historical cultural affinity and especially since Algeria was so USSR-leaning back in the day. Even population wise, it looks like 77% of Moroccans had a favorable view of the USA in 1999.

It looks like Iraq is the only other country with a lot of T-72s that could potentially be convinced to sell them to Ukraine through third parties with promised US replacements that hasn't already done so - from my very non-expert view. The other major operators (>250 tanks) are Algeria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Syria, Kazakhstan, Iran, India, and Sudan and they are (a) unlikely to go against Russia and (b) are anyway not on good enough terms with the West to get tanks as replacement, except for India, which won't do it because of (a). Although India definitely could get away with it, and just won't.

No idea as to the "why" of why Morocco was buying T-72s in 1999, but they apparently had 158 as of last year. So the 120 figure for Ukraine is probably a reasonable estimate of how many of them might be in vaguely working order. I'd guess the 14 T-72Ms being "delivered" from Czechia were their own tanks being sent back to them after modernisation, just badly phrased on Wiki.

The other near term country I've seen listed as most likely additional supplier is Kenya, which has 77 T-72AVs that were actually bought from Ukraine in the early 2000s, and friendly relations with the West. Georgia (143) and Malaysia (48) would also be on the Western friendly and open to US replacements list though.

Any of Algeria (500), Uganda(50), Nigeria(100 estimated), Congo(100 - bought from Ukraine in 2010) Ethiopia(approx 200 - also bought from Ukraine), and Angola(44) as suppliers I presume would be more for cash schemes than Western replacement munitions.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1617904240206426115

Tank's back on the menu, boys!

I just have no idea how they're gonna handle logistics for these, but goddamn this should shut Germany the gently caress up.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Blut posted:

No idea as to the "why" of why Morocco was buying T-72s in 1999, but they apparently had 158 as of last year. So the 120 figure for Ukraine is probably a reasonable estimate of how many of them might be in vaguely working order. I'd guess the 14 T-72Ms being "delivered" from Czechia were their own tanks being sent back to them after modernisation, just badly phrased on Wiki.

The other near term country I've seen listed as most likely additional supplier is Kenya, which has 77 T-72AVs that were actually bought from Ukraine in the early 2000s, and friendly relations with the West. Georgia (143) and Malaysia (48) would also be on the Western friendly and open to US replacements list though.

Any of Algeria (500), Uganda(50), Nigeria(100 estimated), Congo(100 - bought from Ukraine in 2010) Ethiopia(approx 200 - also bought from Ukraine), and Angola(44) as suppliers I presume would be more for cash schemes than Western replacement munitions.

Georgia is definitely staying out - their government is working on a domestic law to make it a crime to participate in the war in Ukraine on either side.

SaTaMaS
Apr 18, 2003

OAquinas posted:

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1617904240206426115

Tank's back on the menu, boys!

I just have no idea how they're gonna handle logistics for these, but goddamn this should shut Germany the gently caress up.

Russian petroleum is especially cheap right now.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




OAquinas posted:

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1617904240206426115

Tank's back on the menu, boys!

I just have no idea how they're gonna handle logistics for these, but goddamn this should shut Germany the gently caress up.

Going to be extremely funny if all this moaning and feet-dragging will result in is that Ukraine gets hundreds of M1 and like 10 Leopards from Germany, and Scholz gets permanently locked in a hyperbolic time chamber with everyone yelling “where are your tanks” at him every time he shows outside his office.

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Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

OAquinas posted:

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1617904240206426115

Tank's back on the menu, boys!

I just have no idea how they're gonna handle logistics for these, but goddamn this should shut Germany the gently caress up.

It'll probably be export versions that can run on diesel so the logistics will be easier.

How many is a significant number I wonder, and how soon?

This will be really weird if this is a direct result of Germany dragging their feet. Try to delay giving Ukraine tanks and accidentally get them both 100+ leopards and a bunch of Abrams.

Chalks fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Jan 24, 2023

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