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Antigravitas posted:Jack Watling doesn't seem to (want to) grasp that the only operator that can spare a single platform in the required quantities is the USA. Blut posted:The Economist this week had a nice graph on the Leopard supply: There are close to 2200 Leopards in service in Europe (not including Turkey). Thats more than enough to supply the 300 or so tanks that Ukraine said it needs, particularly if done gradually in blocks of 50 or 100. Germany in general, and Scholz in particular, will be looked on very unkindly for deliberately delaying the supply of these tanks for no good reason. All their months of prevarication did was cost Ukrainian lives.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 11:52 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 19:42 |
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The Economist is counting countries like Austria, Switzerland, Turkey, which will never part with their Leos, plus demilitarised hulls sitting on scrapyards as inventory. Strike those and NATO commitments and your list of available tanks shrinks precipitously below what Ukraine has said it needs. The only credible provider of uniform tank models is and remains the USA. It is wild to me that anyone would dispute this.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 12:14 |
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Antigravitas posted:The Economist is counting countries like Austria, Switzerland, Turkey, which will never part with their Leos, plus demilitarised hulls sitting on scrapyards as inventory. Strike those and NATO commitments and your list of available tanks shrinks precipitously below what Ukraine has said it needs. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germanys-leopard-tank-move-puts-spotlight-its-maker-rheinmetall-2023-01-25/ Rheinmetall have said they by themselves can deliver 139 Leopards to Urkaine. There are 1,998 Leopards in Europe currently in service without counting Austria, Switzerland or Turkey. Ukraine has said it requires 300 tanks. So 160 odd from current stocks, or about 8% of the total. "The only credible provider of uniform tank models is and remains the USA." is a blatantly untrue statement. There was no justifiable reason for Scholz to delay delivery of them to Ukraine other than cowardice.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 12:23 |
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https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1619649875095822336
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 12:36 |
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Rheinmetall ramping up production https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...urce=reddit.com Pro NATO and Ukraine candidate wins landslide in Czech presidential election https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/28/petr-pavel-wins-landslide-victory-in-czech-presidential-elections
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 12:44 |
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Blut posted:https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germanys-leopard-tank-move-puts-spotlight-its-maker-rheinmetall-2023-01-25/ Did you read your own link? It deals primarily with Leopard 1 sitting on a scrapyard. Leopard 1 is not Leopard 2, it's a very different model. And why would you take a private company hoping for large contracts at their word? Why are you talking about "in service"? If you are going after "in service", the numbers go way, way down. The Economist graph isn't talking about in service either, and for good reason. There are not 1998 Leopard 2 in service. Why are you throwing different tank models together? 2A4 and 2A6 don't even use the same cannon. I was very specifically talking about uniform tank models, you even quoted me saying that. Why are you assuming every operator on that list is willing or able to part with tanks, when the list already shows that not to be the case? It is wild to me that you'd go "look at this mix of Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 models" to the statement that the only operator of a sufficient quantity of uniform models is the USA. Just as a reminder, the US Army has 1600 M1A2 SEPv2 in active service, with thousands of varying models in storage.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 13:16 |
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Antigravitas posted:Did you read your own link? It deals primarily with Leopard 1 sitting on a scrapyard. Leopard 1 is not Leopard 2, it's a very different model. And why would you take a private company hoping for large contracts at their word? That's still a lot of Leopards that Canada, Sweden, and Spain could give up. I could see why Greece and Finland would want to keep theirs, and certainly wouldn't donate them. I haven't been following too closely, but the Ukrainian military have been interested in "tanks" but when it became more specific, it was always "leopards". Maybe for fuel reasons, maybe for repair reasons, I don't know, but leopards get the focus. Also you come off as incredibly defensive about Germany in every single one of your posts. In here, you make decent arguments (although I think are still wrong), but even in places where people have linked you pieces from Der Spiegel or wherever about Scholz being a dickwad, you have still called it hearsay, so... maybe I would believe another poster more about this particular topic.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 13:49 |
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Antigravitas posted:Did you read your own link? It deals primarily with Leopard 1 sitting on a scrapyard. Leopard 1 is not Leopard 2, it's a very different model. And why would you take a private company hoping for large contracts at their word? The Ukrainians requested Leopards. Either Leopard is a huge upgrade from what they currently have. I would take a large, publicly traded, company at their word because its of more value than the word of very defensive German Something Awful forums poster "Antigravitas". In service in American English 1. in use; functioning said esp. of an appliance, vehicle, etc. 2. in the armed forces See full dictionary entry for service The Ukrainians don't care about which tank model, they've just requested Leopards. Because, any, any Leopard model is a big upgrade from their dwindling Soviet stock. I'm not assuming every operator on that list is willing or able to part with tanks. But given in the first week after Germany finally deigned to allow transfer of Leopards we saw instant pledges of 58 tanks, or about one third of the total required, and other countries on the list that have yet to pledge have indicated their willingness to do so, its not much of a leap to assume the demand will be met in the coming months. Its wild to me that you think you know better than the Ukrainians themselves, and global military experts, who have all specifically said the Leopard is the best tank for their requirements - taking into account all procurement, performance, and supply issues. Why are you trying so hard to defend Scholz's terrible policy not to send tanks, that dragged for months, that almost anyone objective can now admit was pointless?
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:14 |
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More tank is better than less tank or no tank, even a bad tank is a significant force multiplier
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:18 |
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Saladman posted:That's still a lot of Leopards that Canada, Sweden, and Spain could give up. I could see why Greece and Finland would want to keep theirs, and certainly wouldn't donate them. Well, OK. Here is another poster: Why is Canada on your list of countries who can give up a lot of Leo-2s? They have like 80 in total, and only 20 of the more modern version Germany is sending. Mixing 2A4s' and 2A6s' is already not optimal, since they use different cannons and most of Germany's 2A4s are probably just hunks of rusted metal at this point, I'd not be surprised if this is the reason the German government is giving out the more modern 2A6 instead: It's plausible that they still have those in significant better shape, both in Bundeswehr and industry inventory. If it weren't for Rheinmetall ramping up production, I'd agree with Antigravitas that the US is the only credible supplier of MBTs. But if the US is unwilling to send them in large numbers, Leo-2s it is. It'll take a while longer, but Ukraine will be getting there. Though ironically, Zelensky will probably not forget who helped the most when Ukrainian forces end up with 300-400 Leo-2s, 14 Challengers, 4 Leclercs* and 30-40 Abrams. *This is a joke number based on Macron musing about giving Leclercs, as I would be rather surprised if this actually happens, not a real number.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:21 |
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Blut posted:I wonder what the undetermined are? The last of their T-72s? Jfc Greece. A small low income EU country with 10 million people maintaining one of the largest and modern tank armies in Europe like it's about to storm the Fulda gap.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:32 |
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where can I go to find a very naval-gazey discussion of just wtf was going on with scholz and germany during this time?
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:32 |
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GABA ghoul posted:Jfc Greece. A small low income EU country with 10 million people maintaining one of the largest and modern tank armies in Europe like it's about to storm the Fulda gap. They are living next to Turkey, which is the 2nd biggest candidate for special military adventurer in Europe after Russia.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:35 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator. This thread has honestly been the most informative, clean and helpful to understand the Ukraine situation out of literally anything I've seen on the internet. Ya did pretty much amazing, to say the least.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:36 |
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Issaries posted:They are living next to Turkey, which is the 2nd biggest candidate for special military adventurer in Europe after Russia. Turkey's even done their military adventure already. I'm not sure if Syria ever gets back that occupied northern chunk, regardless of whether Assad or someone else rules the ashpile. IIRC people there have been given Turkish passports and other stuff like that. Erdogan's a clown in many ways, but I actually think he might be better at this dictatoring than Putin, becuase he might well get his annexations without too much fuss in due time.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:38 |
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Turns out, it's not just the Germans who can compromise security agencies. Today's paper reveals the guy who was appointed to lead the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in 2017, Matti Saarelainen, was responsible for fast-tracking oligarch Gennady Timichenko’s application for Finnish citizenship during his stint at the Bureau of Immigration. Timichenko was known for his close ties to Putin, but although Saarelainen's former colleagues at the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (FSIS) had specifically requested to be consulted if Timichenko applied for citizenship, Saarelainen waved it through, because Timichenko's right hand man was his old buddy. Saarelainen "resigned" in 2019 from European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats and returned to FSIS. It later came to light that he was actually fired for sexual harassment. Timichenko was sanctioned by the US in 2014, but being a Finnish citizen shielded him from European sanctions until 2022.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:49 |
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Qmass posted:where can I go to find a very naval-gazey discussion of just wtf was going on with scholz and germany during this time? Randarkman posted:Turkey's even done their military adventure already. I'm not sure if Syria ever gets back that occupied northern chunk, regardless of whether Assad or someone else rules the ashpile. IIRC people there have been given Turkish passports and other stuff like that. Erdogan's a clown in many ways, but I actually think he might be better at this dictatoring than Putin, becuase he might well get his annexations without too much fuss in due time.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 14:54 |
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GABA ghoul posted:Jfc Greece. A small low income EU country with 10 million people maintaining one of the largest and modern tank armies in Europe like it's about to storm the Fulda gap. Greece and Turkey are mortal enemies only held back by the fact both of them stand to be annihilated if they start something, because by a peculiarity of politics the incentives line up behind the defender for basically every major possible event. Plus Greece thinks Turkey is going to kick something off about Cyprus.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 15:11 |
Thanks again everyone. I don’t want to quote all the kind words, to avoid inviting some sort of meta-conversation that we could instead have in the upcoming feedback thread if desired (should be in February I think), but I have read and do appreciate them.GABA ghoul posted:Jfc Greece. A small low income EU country with 10 million people maintaining one of the largest and modern tank armies in Europe like it's about to storm the Fulda gap. Well, the threat of Turkey is there, according to them. In fact, it’s the official explanation for why Greece cannot temporarily fork over 80 tanks to Cyprus, so that Cyprus sends 80 T-80U of its active duty to Ukraine, which would require 0 training or preparation to hit the ground running by Ukrainians. Blut posted:I'm not assuming every operator on that list is willing or able to part with tanks. But given in the first week after Germany finally deigned to allow transfer of Leopards we saw instant pledges of 58 tanks, or about one third of the total required, and other countries on the list that have yet to pledge have indicated their willingness to do so, its not much of a leap to assume the demand will be met in the coming months. The total asked by Ukraine is 300-500 depending on the official and question, and I don’t see even a hint of defence of Scholz in their post. Qmass posted:where can I go to find a very naval-gazey discussion of just wtf was going on with scholz and germany during this time? What specifically would you like to read about? The cultural background, the specifics of negotiations, the state of German army supplies, or maybe even something else? As for the overnight attack on Iran, here’s a summary in Russian. https://zona.media/chronicle/340#52255 In short, 4 explosions in Isfahan at or around a military factory, a fire in an unspecified Tabriz factory, an oil refinery fire in Shahed-Salimi, and possibly reports from elsewhere too. Al Arabiya has gone from “Israel did this” to “USA did this with another country”, and as per an earlier RUSI report https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-iranian-made-uavs-technical-profile Shahed Aviation Industries is based near Isfahan (though it’s not clear if their factory specifically was hit).
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 15:25 |
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Israeli officials sort of circumstantially, anonymously took credit for it (yes that statement is exceedingly wishy washy sounding, that is intentional), but it's worth noting that there's a laundry list of countries or groups that would have an interest in striking Israeli weapons manufacturing/defense targets. Israel is the most likely at the top (and indeed regularly blows up such sites, albeit predominately not in Iran) of the list in nearly every way. KSA is possible albeit somewhat less likely, same with the US and, to an even lesser extent, the UAE. Kurdish groups or even Azerbaijan are both in the realm of possibility and both have very recent grievances with Iran. Britain is another possibility, particularly after Iran shipped nuclear material into Britain about a month ago. Ukraine of course would have an interest but, as far as anyone knows, lacks the means Israel is ofc the most likely answer, but Iran has a ton of adversaries at the moment and is at a serious low point in terms of international reputation so it's likely a once-in-a-generation moment to strike Iran while facing the least international condemnation it's a weird situation. once we know more about the scale of the damage we'll have a better idea of the scale of the attack. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Jan 29, 2023 |
# ? Jan 29, 2023 15:41 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What specifically would you like to read about? The cultural background, the specifics of negotiations, the state of German army supplies, or maybe even something else?
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 15:46 |
Qmass posted:everything, I guess. because what I see in the news smells like bullshit cinci zoo sniper posted:Unrelated to the thread, in all fairness, but NYT has a long rear end thing about the German army if anyone is curious. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/magazine/germany-military-army.html cinci zoo sniper posted:FT has an article going in detail over backroom negotiations between Scholz and Biden on tanks for Ukraine. https://www.ft.com/content/ea1cd074-c912-4dd7-9977-72ac41da0a52 Adding to these two, here are two pieces on political attitudes in Germany: https://www.ft.com/content/80b84305-005d-443b-927e-6aa7bc343714 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/europe/germany-tanks-history.html What this would be missing, for completeness, is the commercially inclined anti-war lobbying in Germany. For instance, a primer on the gas stuff would be https://correctiv.org/en/latest-stories/2022/10/07/gazprom-lobby-germany/ - but there are other interest groups, e.g., German car manufacturers, that could also have had an active part in the discussion - I'm not that much into German domestic politics.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 15:56 |
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Libluini posted:Well, OK. Here is another poster: Why is Canada on your list of countries who can give up a lot of Leo-2s? They have like 80 in total, and only 20 of the more modern version Germany is sending. As a Canadian, I concur on this point. The vague rumblings about donations of tanks from us was like 4? You might as well count tank donations from Canada as 0 because anything we send is going to mostly be a show of support, not in any significant numbers. Canadians don't have much taste for procuring military hardware.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 15:58 |
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I'm going to pick your post apart in-line. I'm sorry if this comes off as aggressive, but it's hard to keep things straight otherwise.Blut posted:In service in American English And as I said, that shrinks your numbers, because a huge parts of your 2000 tanks are not in service. That's the problem with the number, it starts evaporating once you actually look closer. Blut posted:The Ukrainians don't care about which tank model, they've just requested Leopards. Because, any, any Leopard model is a big upgrade from their dwindling Soviet stock. We are not talking about the Ukrainians, we are talking about the piece published by the Spectator. The one about tank models. The one that's horseshit. Blut posted:Why are you trying so hard to defend Scholz's terrible policy not to send tanks, that dragged for months, that almost anyone objective can now admit was pointless? I am talking about tanks in European countries, not Scholz. Scholz has no power to magically unify 2A4 and 2A6 models or fix Spain's rotting Leopards. I would appreciate it if instead of going off about Scholz and other tangents, you'd engage with the distribution of models and their state in the inventories of European nations. It's not a pretty sight once you start digging below the surface. Saladman posted:I haven't been following too closely, but the Ukrainian military have been interested in "tanks" but when it became more specific, it was always "leopards". Maybe for fuel reasons, maybe for repair reasons, I don't know, but leopards get the focus. It's Leopards because the USA have been unwilling to provide Abrams. But let's be absolutely clear here, when Ukraine starts losing Leopards during an offensive, there will be no replacements forthcoming in any reasonable time frame, and absolutely not in uniform variants. There is no long-term solution that does not involve Abrams, or not a wild potpourri of different models. The situation is similar to IFV, and I'm pretty confident Perun will come to the same conclusion as me in his inevitable tank video. And I'm sorry, but I only post about things I actually have reasonable knowledge of, and the entire public tank debate has been incredibly divorced from reality especially in the fields I am confident in, and that's obviously German politics and some mild military hardware weeaboo. (and calling SPON articles hearsay is always correct)
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:07 |
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Doubleposting, speaking of Perun: Russian Strengths & Capabilities in Ukraine - Why Russia is still a threat in 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9xQf8LQgCU
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:11 |
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Randarkman posted:Turkey's even done their military adventure already. I'm not sure if Syria ever gets back that occupied northern chunk, regardless of whether Assad or someone else rules the ashpile. IIRC people there have been given Turkish passports and other stuff like that. Erdogan's a clown in many ways, but I actually think he might be better at this dictatoring than Putin, becuase he might well get his annexations without too much fuss in due time. It's because he did it in the acceptable direction (away from Europe) and against an extremely unpopular target. And really it's not altogether different than what Putin somewhat got away with in Ukraine in 2014.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:21 |
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Antigravitas posted:I'm going to pick your post apart in-line. I'm sorry if this comes off as aggressive, but it's hard to keep things straight otherwise. Every single one of those tanks is "in the armed forces", or did you not understand that definition? How are we not talking about Ukrainians? I specifically stated "The Ukrainians requested Leopards". There is no tangent about Scholz. My very first post on this had two lines in it, one of which said "Germany in general, and Scholz in particular, will be looked on very unkindly for deliberately delaying the supply of these tanks for no good reason. All their months of prevarication did was cost Ukrainian lives.". Which you apparently disagreed with, and have repeatedly tried to defend his actions by claiming the US was the only country that could supply Ukraine with enough tanks. Posts of yours like: "the only operator that can spare a single platform in the required quantities is the USA." "The only credible provider of uniform tank models is and remains the USA. It is wild to me that anyone would dispute this. " etc are just completely factually incorrect. As evidenced by the number of Leopards in service in Europe, the number already committed to Ukraine in the last week alone, and again, as evidenced by the requests of the Ukrainians themselves and the opinions of any military experts posted to this thread. The Leopard is the best fit for Ukraine's needs in 2023 (and was in 2022) too. They should have had them months ago, and would have if it wasn't for Scholz and his government's morally abhorrent delaying tactics.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:24 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Well, the threat of Turkey is there, according to them. In fact, it’s the official explanation for why Greece cannot temporarily fork over 80 tanks to Cyprus, so that Cyprus sends 80 T-80U of its active duty to Ukraine, which would require 0 training or preparation to hit the ground running by Ukrainians.specifically was hit). Are they seriously putting pressure on Cyprus to lend stuff? That's the one country in the EU that should get a complete pass due to being the only one with genuine existential threat.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:25 |
Grape posted:Are they seriously putting pressure on Cyprus to lend stuff? That's the one country in the EU that should get a complete pass due to being the only one with genuine existential threat. Nah, Cyprus is more than happy to replace T-80U fleet with a fleet of Leopards (I believe they specifically want 2A6 or newer, but don’t quote me on this) paid for by the EU Ukraine armaments money, and was the one to make the offer, unprompted, I believe. The hold-up is that, as you note, they indeed have reasons to be keen on holding onto their tanks, and consequently the Cypriot government has said that they can perform the exchange only after the requisite number of Leopards is physically unloaded on the island. The primary candidate for offering them the tanks is thought to be Greece, which has a fleet of 170 Leopard 2 Hel (2A6 modification), but Greece’s initial response to this proposal voiced by Cyprus was “sorry but no, Turkey bad”.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:41 |
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Doesn't seem like a coincidence that shortly after a power struggle between Shoigu and Prigozhin (of which Shoigu clearly came out on top, of which there probably was little question of) now there's a coordinated effort to discredit or marginalize Strelkov while Prigozhin is once again being allowed back into the fold and he appears to be playing ball again? Only one way to find out. See if he shuts up or keeps criticizing and whether that makes him dissapear
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:48 |
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Barrel Cactaur posted:Greece and Turkey are mortal enemies only held back by the fact both of them stand to be annihilated if they start something, because by a peculiarity of politics the incentives line up behind the defender for basically every major possible event. Plus Greece thinks Turkey is going to kick something off about Cyprus. That's just a fairytale told to smoothbrain simpletons. The REAL reason for Greek militarization is to have a deterrent against The Great Satan aka. FYROM aka. Fakedonia in case they start claiming the hallowed name and history of Macedonia to themselves! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 16:54 |
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How'd Cyprus end up with a fleet of T-80s?
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 17:13 |
On the Cyprus tanks story, the context as to why they're mentioning it only now is that they were under some American embargo until this year. https://www.state.gov/lifting-of-defense-trade-restrictions-on-the-republic-of-cyprus-for-fiscal-year-2023/Vivian Darkbloom posted:How'd Cyprus end up with a fleet of T-80s? They bought them from Russia in the 90s and 00s.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 17:22 |
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Mederlock posted:And unfortunately.. it looks like there's speculation Putin may be looking to 'celebrate' the occasion by doing some sort of Anniversary offensive/attack Probably clancychat but: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11686959/Vladimir-Putin-set-Iron-Curtain-big-war-Nato-Ukraine-warns-strike-February-24.html "Vladimir Putin is set on 'big war' with Nato to bring back the Iron Curtain says top Russian political scientist as Ukraine warns Russia will launch new pre-emptive strike by February 24" Also: "Dr Yudin, a professor at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences, does not believe major Western countries will fight to save the likes of Poland and Lithuania." I'm not in the EU so I can't say but... Ignoring the fact that these are NATO members, I have to believe that EU members not stepping up to bat if one of their members was invaded might effectively spell the end of the Union. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 17:38 |
Small White Dragon posted:Probably clancychat but: This is very much what Russian political propaganda wants EU member states to believe, yes.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 17:43 |
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Small White Dragon posted:Probably clancychat but: The Daily Mail is kind of a tabloid rag, for what it's worth.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 17:57 |
Small White Dragon posted:Probably clancychat but: These are the same people that think blowing up some American cities will make the US cower in fear. As opposed to reality where Russia would become the newest American territory in a couple of months.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 18:15 |
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TK-42-1 posted:These are the same people that think blowing up some American cities will make the US cower in fear. As opposed to reality where Russia would become the newest American territory in a couple of months. While Russia does not have the capacity to do anything to NATO without being rekt, similarly the US could not pretend to start to turn Russia into a new US territory without also being rekt. No one wins a nuclear war. Cinci, are your gears grinding on how the thread went about 24 hours before devolving into unbridled Clancy chat?
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 18:25 |
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:How'd Cyprus end up with a fleet of T-80s? When Greece, Turkey and Cyprus were part of the Ottoman empire their was a lot of circulations of population, as there were still large Greek populations along the Anatolian peninsula and surrounding islands. as the ottoman empire broke up populations in Greece and Turkey (as well as other peripheral states) reorganized to an extent. Cyprus retained a mixed population. Its founded as a republic in 1960 with Turkish communities and Greek communities. Unfortunately problems started basically instantly. The Greek communities wanted essentially to dissolve the differences, while the Turkish side wanted them to remain separate. The Greek Cypriot president tried to make constitutional reforms, the Turks rejected them, violence broke out, the Turkish Cypriot communities withdrew or were blocked from mutual government. This tension was further increased latter In the early 1970 the Greeks were under a military dictatorship. They decided that democracy was the enemy, and that the fact a bunch of small democracies were around them was making it too easy for the opposition they had exiled to organize against them. They also wanted to integrate Cyprus. So they started trying to collapse the democracies immediately around them. Italy proved a bit too resistant, but they managed a coup in Cyprus in 1974, having misinterpreted the US as being willing to keep Turkey from intervening. The US did not keep Turkey from intervening. so 5 days later Turkey invaded north Cyprus on the pretext that Greece had violated the treaty mutually guaranteeing its independence. The puppet government of the greeks collapses. Unfortunately, the civilian governance cant reestablish mutual trust and governance. Turkey invades again and seizes 36% of the island. They decide to do the same reorganization thing and expel the 80% of the population of that area that are Greek, then partially annex the territory. This causes the UN to condemn the action as not aligning with the 1960 treaty and violating the human rights of basically everyone involved. No one trusts Turkey not to go even more nationalist and invade again, Turkey doesn't trust Greece not to try and intervene again, and Greece doesn't want to provoke Turkey by modernizing the Cypriot army. The Russians sold them the tanks in the late 90s replacing a bunch of AMX-30's (an obsolete french tank from the 60s, seriously don't even ask). Russia and Turkey have been in a 30 year long pissing match over western Asia so this is likely a direct snub. All that is why a tiny island has nearly 200 active service tanks between the direct National guard and a Greek tripwire force. Barrel Cactaur fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Jan 29, 2023 |
# ? Jan 29, 2023 18:25 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 19:42 |
Electric Wrigglies posted:While Russia does not have the capacity to do anything to NATO without being rekt, similarly the US could not pretend to start to turn Russia into a new US territory without also being rekt. No one wins a nuclear war. You don’t really understand hyperbole do you? My point was that much like every time something stupid like this has come out of Russian media it’s always with the same lack of understanding of how the attacked states would actually respond and thus should be ignored rather than actively discussed as actual things that might happen.
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# ? Jan 29, 2023 18:29 |