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TK-42-1 posted:You don’t really understand hyperbole do you? Ignoring it utterly is probably a mistake given that it's entirely possible that Russian leadership is dumb enogh to try it. Active ridicule is a better choice.
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Jan 29, 2023 18:32
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The best response is continually increasing support for Ukraine. It really weakens that "they won't support democratic europe" argument.
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Jan 29, 2023 18:39
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Bel Shazar posted:Ignoring it utterly is probably a mistake given that it's entirely possible that Russian leadership is dumb enogh to try it. Ignoring it is fine. Ridicule is better. It's utter bullshit. Russian troops have almost abandoned the borders with NATO/EU states and are in no position to either capitalize on such a strike or weather any sort of retaliation. At the very least you would expect significantly increased combat air and air defense readiness in advance of any sort of strike on the EU/NATO. Up until this point the little green men and special operations have stayed explicitly inside the borders of the non-NATO states bordering Russia. This suggests that there has been an ongoing recognition by Russian leadership of a credible deterrent. They're not dumb so to speak, they're just awful fascists who believe awful things... so ok maybe they're a little dumb but they're not insane or suicidal. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Jan 29, 2023 |
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Jan 29, 2023 18:51
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With enough time dipshit fascists can get in power and actually do the crazy poo poo they stay but that assumes Putin is dead and that's a subject for Clancy chat.
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Jan 29, 2023 18:56
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If you people want to engage in Clancychat just go to reddit. It's like babbys first Clancychat 24/7 over there. The Clancychat ban is what makes this thread the best place to discuss the Ukraine war.
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Jan 29, 2023 19:06
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https://t.me/khersonskaODA/3390 There was a cannon artillery bombardment of Kherson today (hardly the first one in recent weeks, to be explicit), and I’m seeing quite a bit of gore on media from there. Scroll carefully.Electric Wrigglies posted:Cinci, are your gears grinding on how the thread went about 24 hours before devolving into unbridled Clancy chat? It seems that we’re reading two different threads. Charliegrs posted:If you people want to engage in Clancychat just go to reddit. It's like babbys first Clancychat 24/7 over there. The Clancychat ban is what makes this thread the best place to discuss the Ukraine war. We have a thread for that too, actually. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3995624
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Jan 29, 2023 19:38
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1619763202841083908 Finland is the one that actually land borders Russia, insofar as NATO status matters to deterring Russian behaviour. Turkish elections or not, Ankara may reasonably feel that Russian adventurism is sufficiently deterred. And anyway both Finland and Sweden are already covered by EU mutual defence commitments, although Turkey is not.
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Jan 29, 2023 19:41
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I’m getting this impression that Germany consenting to sending tanks is too little too late. The Ukrainians won’t get enough tanks in time to properly set up an offensive and it looks like the Russians are attempting to force Ukraine to use up their reserves to stop the offensive and force another stalemate in springtime. Like to me it seems Ukraine is only getting enough forces just in time to maintain the balance of power without actually giving them sufficient offensive capability to push the Russians back to the 2013 borders. I do wonder if the Russians are actively communicating and negotiating with the west behind the scenes as to how much help is acceptable help vs declaration of war help. Either way it looks like this new crop of 300,000 men is better trained, more effective and in general well armed enough to destroy UAF forces and still have enough troops remaining to drag Ukraine down with Russia into malaise and obscurity. Like I don’t think Russia will ever be able to successfully occupy Ukraine in its entirety. Best case scenario they burn out and force the west to cede Donetsk and Luhansk which would be spun as a victory and would still give vindication to the Russians that this war was a good idea. But say the UAF collapses and Russia reaches Kiyiv. Even then I think they’d have to deal with insurgency and other problems. Ukraine I think will be an independent country one way or another it’s just a question of how long it will take and how devastated and impoverished the country will be at the end. If Ukraine can push out the Russians it will become a European style Israel. A militarized state that can hold its independence and will likely get a lot of foreign direct investment as it integrates into western global supply chains. It may eventually even become an arms exporter in its own right given their military testing experience on western equipment and soviet equipment. If Ukraine “loses” it won’t lose independence but it will deal with a near permanent state of poverty and corruption as Russia drags it down. This is a terrible outcome and the west should do more to prevent it. Olaf Scholz may go down in history as the man who hung Ukraine out to dry if this outcome takes place. I can only hope the folks at the Pentagon and NATO HQ know what they’re doing and that the Russian offensives and 300k reinforcements don’t end up being as scary as the news is making them out to be. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Jan 29, 2023 |
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Jan 29, 2023 20:00
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https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1619769871088373760 Russians continuing making gains past Soledar, very much hoping that the offensive stalls out soon.  Thankfully the hyped up assault on Vuheldar appears mainly to be good for creating massive amounts of Russian casualties.
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Jan 29, 2023 20:01
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1619763202841083908 I thought Finland said it was both them and Sweden or neither?
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Jan 29, 2023 20:01
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sniper4625 posted:https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1619769871088373760 Vuhledar is quite concerning on a strategic level, to me personally. Fingers crossed UAF holds there, but I expect Gerasimov to pile troops really hard on it. The reason is that Russian supplies by rail can travel to the Zaporizhzhia frontline only through a single railway currently. If they take Vuhledar, they can reassemble a dismantled section of the nearby railway, as it will be increasingly out of range of Ukrainian artillery. 
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Jan 29, 2023 20:19
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Small White Dragon posted:I thought Finland said it was both them and Sweden or neither? Finland would prefer they joined at the same time, but if an opportunity presents itself and Sweden seems bogged down long-term, Finland is joining. It's definitely not a case of "both or neither"; Finland needs to get in. Sweden not so much.
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Jan 29, 2023 20:20
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Small White Dragon posted:I thought Finland said it was both them and Sweden or neither? They said that at first, but more recently have been like you know what? Screw Sweden. https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-join-nato-sweden-pekka-haavisto-turkey-ukraine-ankara/amp/ Which makes sense to me, as NATO is like 100x more important for them than it is for Sweden. I’d ditch Sweden too if I were Finnish right now.
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Jan 29, 2023 20:21
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Many thanks for the Türkiye & Cyprus info.  ------------ Finland joins and Sweden says we're chill bro. *psyke!*
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Jan 29, 2023 20:21
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There's a good chance Erdogan gets dumped this year, so it's possible to just wait.
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Jan 29, 2023 20:22
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Cicero posted:There's a good chance Erdogan gets dumped this year, so it's possible to just wait. I think that might be hopeful. Turkish elections have a very high chance of being completely wild this year, though I think if Erdogan has to do a Jan 6, his goons will probably succeed unlike Trump's and Bolsonaro's.
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Jan 29, 2023 20:41
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https://paperpaper.io/papernews/2023/1/29/denezhnye-perevody-rossiyan-v-sosednie/ Entirely unsurprising static, but cool to see a number on it. Outward cash transactions, 2022 over 2021, from Russia: +580% to Kazakhstan, + 400% to Georgia, +160% to Uzbekistan, +300% to Armenia, and, not only the last but also the least, +6% to Kyrgyzstan.
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Jan 29, 2023 21:25
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sniper4625 posted:https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1619769871088373760 Isnt all the chatter about the actual Russian offensive starting on feb 24th since it's the 1 year anniversary?
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Jan 29, 2023 22:36
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TheRat posted:Isnt all the chatter about the actual Russian offensive starting on feb 24th since it's the 1 year anniversary? I mean, there were already rumors on big offensive starting first on Victory Day and then on Putin's birthday and only thing that happened was partial destruction of Kerch bridge.
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Jan 29, 2023 22:45
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TheRat posted:Isnt all the chatter about the actual Russian offensive starting on feb 24th since it's the 1 year anniversary? 23rd is also the Defender of the Fatherland Day, for additional symbolism, but the rumours right now for the grand spring offensive are a moving target of people investing more and more energy into speculating about Gerasimov's rotation, I feel. As far as practical movements are concerned, the last week we save heavy assault on Vuhledar (seems to be the hottest flashpoint right now), and some probing attack attempts on the Zaporizhzhia front, where I guess the theory is whoever first attacks on that front gets to mire the other party in defensive busywork. Re: Earlier Vuhledar map – here's a much more detailed map from CIT, dated January 27.  Edit: Herstory Begins Now posted:Israeli officials sort of circumstantially, anonymously took credit for it (yes that statement is exceedingly wishy washy sounding, that is intentional), but it's worth noting that there's a laundry list of countries or groups that would have an interest in striking Israeli weapons manufacturing/defense targets. Israel is the most likely at the top (and indeed regularly blows up such sites, albeit predominately not in Iran) of the list in nearly every way. KSA is possible albeit somewhat less likely, same with the US and, to an even lesser extent, the UAE. Kurdish groups or even Azerbaijan are both in the realm of possibility and both have very recent grievances with Iran. Britain is another possibility, particularly after Iran shipped nuclear material into Britain about a month ago. Ukraine of course would have an interest but, as far as anyone knows, lacks the means As per WSJ scoop citing unnamed U.S. officials, Israel it is. https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-iran-amid-new-international-push-to-contain-tehran-11675004979 quote:Israel’s latest strike comes as Israeli and American officials are discussing new ways to combat Iran’s destabilizing operations, including its deepening military cooperation with Russia. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Jan 29, 2023 |
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Jan 29, 2023 23:11
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m getting this impression that Germany consenting to sending tanks is too little too late. Have you ever been right, once? I don't think you have. What makes you think this time is different? There are no signs of increasing competence on the side of Russia, and an increase in types of systems being given to Ukraine. Until things materially turn for the worse, why are you assuming otherwise?
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Jan 29, 2023 23:39
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Small White Dragon posted:Probably clancychat but: I think that Russia would need to look at who would save them if they went for Poland, Given their performance so far, opening another front would be foolish, and it isn't like Poland hasn't had time to prep up for Russia trying something stupid
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Jan 29, 2023 23:44
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Mulva posted:There are no signs of increasing competence on the side of Russia That Perun video posted earlier today made quite a lot of arguments against this, tbh. He still thought Ukraine would have the upper hand in the very long run, but Russia is definitely doing some stuff.
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Jan 29, 2023 23:50
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Mulva posted:Have you ever been right, once? I don't think you have. Over the past few weeks or over the entire campaign? Because over the campaign they have definitely fixed a lot of stuff. They evacuated all the areas they couldn't hold, and extracted the vast majority of their forces in Kherson with good order. Their mobilization wave is clearly having an effect in solidifying the front lines and the Ukrainians have made little to no headway since Kherson while the Bakhmut region is seeing steady incremental gains again, like what the Russians were doing last summer, albeit apparently by sacrificing Wagner convicts and leveraging their manpower base. CivDiv has released more combat footage. This one is pretty intense. People definitely getting killed though none directly on the camera.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQeyk1BQ7LE
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Jan 30, 2023 00:19
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Can someone who is subscribed to War on the Rocks tell me if The Russia Contingency has any new episodes in January? My subscription lapsed but I can't see even a list of members-only content.
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Jan 30, 2023 01:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Thanks again everyone... *Answered below by Fritz the Horse Cable Guy fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Jan 30, 2023 |
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Jan 30, 2023 01:50
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Ynglaur posted:Can someone who is subscribed to War on the Rocks tell me if The Russia Contingency has any new episodes in January? My subscription lapsed but I can't see even a list of members-only content. A 2-part interview with Dara Massicot, released on the 11th and 19th. Before that, the last episode was part 2 of the Kotkin interview.
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Jan 30, 2023 01:55
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Cable Guy posted:Echoing the appreciation of your work that's been posted so far. I may have missed it if you posted this but any word on who will be taking over as mod or IK for the thread? cinci helpfully provided a couple suggestions for thread IKs when he departed, we'll be reaching out to folks shortly. If you have suggestions please do PM me, but we'll start with cinci's recommendations. In the meantime it will probably mostly be me handling reports for this thread. I have been following it since the start of the invasion, but honestly I don't have spare time to read it as closely as cinci did and I also don't have the contextual knowledge of regional culture and politics or the right time zone to do a very good job of it. This thread has a lot of Euro posters so it tends to be fairly active during EU daytime. So I guess I'm the caretaker or interim mod for the thread as I don't think the other mods read it much. Hopefully we can find an IK or two who ideally: -live in the region and are active during EU daytime -have good knowledge of the region -are level-headed and will continue moderation roughly along the lines cinci's established and most importantly -are willing to donate some time and energy to IK the thread I am, at best, one and a half of those things. edit: lol that sounded kinda defeatist. I'll do my best at being a caretaker but my post above was intended to communicate that I am not a good fit to do it longer-term. Please do submit reports and PM me if you have suggestions, comments, or the thread starts on fire. I'll read it and process reports but I often won't be able to keep up with it in real-time. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 02:17 on Jan 30, 2023 |
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Jan 30, 2023 02:11
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Cicero posted:There's a good chance Erdogan gets dumped this year, so it's possible to just wait. I think there's a good chance that Ergogan loses an election. Whether he leaves office is a whole different question, and I wouldn't be hopeful. There's a reason he has publicly stated: "Democracy is like a tram. You ride it until you arrive at your destination, then you step off."
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Jan 30, 2023 02:35
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:How'd Cyprus end up with a fleet of T-80s? At the time of purchase, buying from Germany was pretty much off the table due to the fairly close MIC relationship between Germany and Turkey. For similar political reasons, receiving former US tanks from Greece was not in the cards. The French had little to give except for older, smaller tanks and didn't want to rock the boat, so to speak. Italy was kind of in the same canoe as the French. Anyone to the east of Germany was either trying to integrate into the EU (courting push-back from same by selling tanks), and/or had problems keeping their own forces supplied with Russian-designed, locally-upgraded tanks. That encompasses the Czechs, Poles, Croatians, etc. The Russians (a more "neutral" party at the time) sold the initial batch of T-80s for very cheap, with an eye towards maintenance contracts and upgrades in the future. This bore fruit even within the first batch, with some of the T-80s being specifically built for the National Guard. Later, Russian and Belarussian companies upgraded the Cypriot T-80 with optics and APS's. There's way more to the Russian financial involvement in Cyprus, but military contracts were a way to make easy money in a world awash with the exact same Soviet poo poo everyone else had to sell. The T-80 was very cheap at a certain point in time, and not a bad tank. Even the South Koreans accepted the things as back pay on loans. Not that they like them, but they work as tanks.
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Jan 30, 2023 03:23
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War in Ukraine: tanks but no tanks
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Jan 30, 2023 05:08
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Ta.
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Jan 30, 2023 05:19
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Saladman posted:They said that at first, but more recently have been like you know what? Screw Sweden.
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Jan 30, 2023 06:15
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TK-42-1 posted:These are the same people that think blowing up some American cities will make the US cower in fear. As opposed to reality where Russia would become the newest American territory in a couple of months. This is probably one of the reasons why clancychat needs to stay contained. Nothing becomes a newly owned territory, because nobody wins MAD
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Jan 30, 2023 06:28
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Albino Squirrel posted:I mean, if Finland joins NATO it would be impossible to invade Sweden without crossing through a NATO country. Finland joining accomplishes most of Sweden's defense goals regardless of what Erdogan does. Gotland is still vulnerable. But more importantly Sweden is essential to Finland's defence, in particular as a supply route. Cooperation would be much easier if both were members of the pact. But then again being unaligned hasn't been an obstacle to joint planning before. Also, at the beginning of the application process USA and UK gave their security guarantees. In theory this can continue indefinitely (unless Trump returns to White House and reverses all of Biden's promises).
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Jan 30, 2023 08:13
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It's The Baltics that miss out from a blocked Swedish NATO membership.
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Jan 30, 2023 08:56
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I don't mean to post much more about Iran in this thread, but for those interested in the aftermath of that drone attack, it appears that we're now at “unidentified military aircraft did a strafing run on an Iranian convoy in Syria.” https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/01/30/voennye-samolety-obstreliali-kolonnu-gruzovikov-na-iraksko-siriiskoi-granitse-news Back on topic, BoJo is saying that Putin threatened him with “I don't want to hurt you, but with a missile, it would only take a minute”. A literal alleway gopnik.  https://news.sky.com/story/boris-jo...kraine-12798288
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Jan 30, 2023 10:04
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I know it's already been said on this page, but we're going to have to wait until the May Turkish elections for any real answer on Sweden joining NATO (not sure if Erdogan formally received approval from the Supreme Election Council to move it forward a month, but that should be a rubber stamp). An Erdogan defeat would be verrrry interesting though. A lot of power balances would immediately shift, Turkey's relationship with Russia, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Israel would all be subject to change. Also note the Ukraine war might be knee deep in offensives/counter-offensives at that point. The major Turkish opposition parties have united and are set to unveil their shared candidate on February 13th, so that will be a flash point since Istanbul's mayor was looking like a strong option until he got disqualified by Erdogan friendly courts. Where the Turkish military stands is obviously important. How thorough was the purge after the coup attempt? Would they step in if Erdogan tried to disqualify the results? Meanwhile inflation continues to spiral, and whoever wins, they're going to have to put the brakes on if they want to bring it under control.
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Jan 30, 2023 10:08
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Pretty sure Morawiecki has a Scholz dartboard in his office. Scholz last week: “stfu about planes”. Morawiecki today: “Poland is ready to give Ukraine its F-16 fighters, if NATO supports this decision”. https://zn.ua/ukr/WORLD/polshcha-hotova-peredati-ukrajini-f-16-ale-za-odnijeji-umovi-moravetskij.html That said, this could also be simply callous populism, since it does not put pressure pressure on Poland to follow up, yet anyways.
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Jan 30, 2023 12:39
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I'm old enough to remember when fighters were just hours away from being delivered.
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Jan 30, 2023 13:01
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