War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

The one with the buttons probates! When the one with the buttons gets banned, the one behind him takes the buttons and probates!

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:10

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 23, 2024 11:02

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

I'm gonna be the fun police and suggest we not go overboard riffing on fatherboxx the IK, thanks.

edit: fatherboxx and potentially another new IK can comment, if they wish. Please give them some time to decide how they want to approach things, they may want to do things slightly differently or just stick to what cinci's been doing, who knows.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:10

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

It'd be bleakly thread-appropriate if he woke up and found himself with mod buttons.

this was literally how people found out they were a mod on this site for . . . years

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:11

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

Fritz the Horse posted:

I'm gonna be the fun police and suggest we not go overboard riffing on fatherboxx the IK, thanks.

Fair. We have to conserve our riffs until Scholtz agrees to supply more.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:12

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1620077344299057154?s=20
https://twitter.com/MatthieuFavas/status/1620027311763623937?s=20

A couple of good articles.

Maybe NMS, the first one includes details about a burial detail and the usual Russian atrocities.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:13

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Kraftwerk posted:

Mild warning - dude shows off his mostly healed war scars and for some vivid descriptions of frontline combat

This is an interview with one of the guys in the CivDiv video who was wounded by artillery shortly after the video ended. He talks about what fighting is like, what it was like being wounded and funneled through the CCP to the field hospital to a city hospital to recuperate.
The casualty recovery in Ukraine seems to be pretty good, but still not pleasant. He also discusses how the Russians behaved in combat against him, what surrenders looked like and how BMPs have a shitload more armor than you'd think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUjqUQgnq3o

https://old.reddit.com/r/SubredditDrama/comments/10phb3z/rcombatfootage_believes_they_can_handle_the_truth/

quote:

Final result is that it appears CivDiv manufactured an entire false narrative about a perfectly placed and timed artillery shell landing in order to cover for the rash actions of an american in ukraine which seemingly led to the death of an Irishman and an American in Ukraine, and the wounding of multiple others.

Probably a good idea to treat "war youtubers" with suspicion, if not contempt.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:16

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Fritz the Horse posted:

I'm gonna be the fun police and suggest we not go overboard riffing on fatherboxx the IK, thanks.

edit: fatherboxx and potentially another new IK can comment, if they wish. Please give them some time to decide how they want to approach things, they may want to do things slightly differently or just stick to what cinci's been doing, who knows.

So you're promising us he's not just being given a morning of training and sent to the front?

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:17

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

Herstory Begins Now posted:

So you're promising us he's not just being given a morning of training and sent to the front?

He needs to consider if he'll continue Cinci's posture of never ceding ground when the thread is under attack.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:22

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Donkringel posted:

What does IK stand for?

Also in keeping with discussion of current events, what are the most likely targets for Ukraine if they get the longer ranged missiles? It looks like they can strike at what remains of the Black Sea fleet but I'm not sure worthwhile targets they would be since they've been sitting in port for awhile (AFAIK).

Ammo dumps right outside of HIMARS range, maybe known military bases/HQs, if any. Depending on what sort of warheads are on whatever the longer range thing ends up being, the railroad from Crimea into Melitopol�, in some fashion.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 09:59

Somaen: Nov 19, 2007; by vyelkin

The city of Luhansk gets into range too

# ? Feb 1, 2023 10:01

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

HolHorsejob posted:

lol fatherboxx issuing probes and bans that he'll rescind, if you buy avs and start accounts that he can sell on the side

Expecting my minibar to be lined up with awful brandy in sword bottles any day now.

***

Thank you all for condolences

I believe the rule of Cinci the First has disciplined the thread well and the flow of discussion is great these days and everyone understands the rules and customs of this topic.

So, as always, be wary of clancychat, footage and going offtopic on cold war doctrines and whatever else.

Going forward, I recommend everyone to check their sources when linking stories here, let's keep this thread a decent place for discussions and not just a repository of whatever gets dropped on TG by nobodies.

Please consider that you probably dont have military clearence to know what is exactly happening on the battlefield in Ukraine. Just because helpful dogs post videos every day on twitter what you see there is mere small percentage of actual fighting. So be careful about making conclusions just based on public information and statements from experts.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 10:10

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

Fritz the Horse posted:

fatherboxx has graciously agreed to IK this thread. Feel free to offer them your condolences. We may (hopefully) yet find a second IK.

A good choice. :thumbsup:

# ? Feb 1, 2023 10:58

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Here's something interesting I didn't know about before, concerning the Swiss arsenal:

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/krieg-in-der-ukraine-leopard-panzer-ringtausch-dank-schweizer-sonderregel

Translation as always via deepl and proofread by me:

quote:

Leopard tank: Ring swap thanks to special Swiss rule?

What is it about? The Swiss army has 96 mothballed Leopard 2 tanks. Politicians of various persuasions would like to pass on some of these tanks to European countries. The idea is that the countries concerned would supply Leopard tanks from their armies to Ukraine. Then they would replenish their own stocks with the tanks from Switzerland. A kind of ring swap. Now it turns out that a special rule in Swiss arms export law could simplify such a ring swap.

What does this special rule look like? In 2006, the Federal Council decided that war materiel can be sold back to the original country of origin without any conditions. According to this special rule, Switzerland does not have to demand a non-re-export declaration in such a case. The country of manufacture can therefore freely continue to export repurchased war material. In the case of the Leopard tanks, this means that Switzerland could sell them back to the manufacturer Rheinmetall in Germany. Rheinmetall would then be free to pass on the tanks. Theoretically even to Ukraine, but more realistically to another European state within the framework of a ring swap.

Has the special rule already been used? Yes, and this is where it gets interesting, Leopard tanks have already benefited from it. And that was only a few months ago. In 2010, the Swiss Army announced the sale of 42 Leopard 2 tanks to Rheinmetall. Last early summer, expressly because of the Ukraine war, Germany asked Switzerland whether Rheinmetall could continue to export these tanks. Answer from the Defence Department DDPS in June 2022: Yes!

Where did the former Swiss Leopard tanks go? Rheinmetall has now confirmed to SRF for the first time that some of the former Swiss tanks were used for a Ukraine ring swap. The company is not more specific. Such exchanges are known to have taken place with the Czech Republic and Slovakia: both countries had given their own tanks to Ukraine. In return, Rheinmetall supplied them with Leopard tanks. Incidentally, Switzerland sold 42 unarmed Leopard tanks back to Rheinmetall in 2010.

What is the next step in the Swiss Leopard debate? In a first step, parliament must formally decide whether to withdraw some of the tanks from the Swiss army. Step two would be the export - and here the special rule could take effect. A possible end buyer would be Poland, which wants to give Leopard tanks from its own stocks to Ukraine. The Swiss tanks would replace their own stocks. Poland already wanted Swiss tanks last year. The Polish embassy in Bern is still interested in the tanks. The diplomatic mission writes that it would "consider such an offer".

However, take this with a Monte Kali, because Switzerland can be quite slow to act and there may or may not be political will to do this. (My money is on "not going to happen this year", but I find Swiss politics baffling and uneffable)

# ? Feb 1, 2023 11:18

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

Antigravitas posted:

quote:

Final result is that it appears CivDiv manufactured an entire false narrative about a perfectly placed and timed artillery shell landing in order to cover for the rash actions of an american in ukraine which seemingly led to the death of an Irishman and an American in Ukraine, and the wounding of multiple others.

https://old.reddit.com/r/SubredditDrama/comments/10phb3z/rcombatfootage_believes_they_can_handle_the_truth/

Probably a good idea to treat "war youtubers" with suspicion, if not contempt.

After reading all that; looks like the gung-ho American shot the Spetsnaz negotiator in the head leading to their fight to the death and the death of an American and a fellow Irishman :rip:

Rory Mason. o7

edit:

Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Feb 1, 2023

# ? Feb 1, 2023 11:19

His Divine Shadow: Aug 7, 2000; I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

WarpedLichen posted:

Isn't mandatory military service still quite common? I thought places like Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, etc, all still do it?

Never heard it called a draft before though.

Sweden's conscription is basically voluntary at this point. When it comes to readyness for conflict and such, Sweden took one look around in the 90s and said gently caress maintaining all this expensive stuff and got rid of everything it possibly could. They've been taking steps to reverse it recently though.

But this laissez faire attitude affects more than the military in Sweden though. Food self sufficiency was given up as an idea too and hovers around 50% (Finland for comparison is over 80% and could be improved rapidly in need)

# ? Feb 1, 2023 12:17

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Busy day for SBU. Ongoing searches in residences of Kolomoyskiy, Stolar, and Avakov; and in the state revenue service. They�ve also indicted the president of Motor Sich, the company that was rumoured last year to have supplied combat helicopter parts to Russia. And issued a formal suspicion statement against a MoD employee in connection with a low-quality armoured vest purchase. Also, the whole leadership (unclear) or the state customs service has been fired, in addition to some unannounced action.

https://censor.net/ru/news/3397027/segodnya_ves_rukovodyaschiyi_sostav_tamojni_budet_uvolen_arahamiya

All of this broadly continues the recent corruption scandal, since G7 + EU are using this opportunity to press Ukraine for sooner legislative changes to start shoring up the regulatory basis in this area towards EU entry criteria. Censor journalists were also reporting earlier, though, that there might be some politics at play in selection of the next anti-corruption bureau director, but it�s too early to tell what that process will end up with.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:42 on Feb 1, 2023

# ? Feb 1, 2023 12:39

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

His Divine Shadow posted:

Sweden's conscription is basically voluntary at this point. When it comes to readyness for conflict and such, Sweden took one look around in the 90s and said gently caress maintaining all this expensive stuff and got rid of everything it possibly could. They've been taking steps to reverse it recently though.

But this laissez faire attitude affects more than the military in Sweden though. Food self sufficiency was given up as an idea too and hovers around 50% (Finland for comparison is over 80% and could be improved rapidly in need)

The Swedish navy and airforce are still good, but ground forces have been hit hard. Prime example was the panicked realisation that there was no garrison at all in Gotland after little green men appeared in the Crimea.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 12:40

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Arte released an okay look around the Baltics a few days ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7_9-LXW0sg

Note that due to the idiotic rights situation public TV is operating under the link will be dead in a month.

e:

This is bizarre. The host is speaking English, but it's dubbed into German, and this Tracks East series does not appear on the English-language Arte channel.

However, there is a playlist of the same videos, but with� German subtitles? Wat?

Anywy, here's the link https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFGSMmY3wd5KErmIYHlPr_6MY0-Fgs0oC

Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Feb 1, 2023

# ? Feb 1, 2023 13:39

Rinkles: Oct 24, 2010; What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

Unavailable here in the states

# ? Feb 1, 2023 13:47

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

You can chalk that up to the idiotic rights situation as well. I can rehost it if you are interested.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 13:54

Freakazoid_: Jul 5, 2013; Buglord

Antigravitas posted:

https://old.reddit.com/r/SubredditDrama/comments/10phb3z/rcombatfootage_believes_they_can_handle_the_truth/

Probably a good idea to treat "war youtubers" with suspicion, if not contempt.

quote:

at the end some Russian came out with his hands up and no gun

the american's squad leader shot him right in the head

I hope there's an investigation someday, that is hosed up.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 13:56

Rinkles: Oct 24, 2010; What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

Antigravitas posted:

However, there is a playlist of the same videos, but with� German subtitles? Wat?

Anywy, here's the link https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFGSMmY3wd5KErmIYHlPr_6MY0-Fgs0oC

these show up fine here

# ? Feb 1, 2023 14:14

evil_bunnY: Apr 2, 2003

Libluini posted:

The draft was a staple of Germany, based on the theory that you can only have a real Democracy if you make sure the people will constantly be shuffled through the armed forces via the draft. This is to prevent authoritarian structures to build up, completely separated from the larger population.

Ah yes, nazi officers were famously non-existent.

DTurtle posted:

There was already a push towards reinstating some kind of national service, as people declining to go to the Bundeswehr used to be a good, cheap source for things like ambulance drivers, helpers in retirement homes, etc.

nothing quite like gov-supplied free labor to suppress wages.

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

The one with the buttons probates! When the one with the buttons gets banned, the one behind him takes the buttons and probates!

I giggled way to hard at this

evil_bunnY fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Feb 1, 2023

# ? Feb 1, 2023 14:17

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

Possibly an America-centric point of view on the topic, so keep that in mind. My biggest concern with mandatory service is that it ends up as yet another thing that fucks over poor people and rich people abuse. A years-long time tax on people who are already dealing with the inconceivably lovely situation of being poor in America, while the rich will doctor-shop around to find excuses to get out of it or, if by some miracle actually forced in to doing it, will find a way to purchase all the best forms of service for themselves.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 14:31

jaete: Jun 21, 2009; Nap Ghost

Slashrat posted:

I get the impression that these days, for the smaller european nations at least, conscription is more about keeping the Basic Training pipeline continually active rather than getting actual labor out of the conscripts.

Labour... out of the conscripts? :confused:

Are you including, in "conscipts", the people who choose non-military service instead?

Why would you ever get "labour" out of the literal conscripts i.e. the youngsters in the barracks learning how to shoot guns and march in formation? The whole point of those is the basic training

# ? Feb 1, 2023 14:47

evil_bunnY: Apr 2, 2003

jaete posted:

Labour... out of the conscripts? Are you including, in "conscipts", the people who choose non-military service instead?

Why would you ever get "labour" out of the literal conscripts i.e. the youngsters in the barracks learning how to shoot guns and march in formation? The whole point of those is the basic training

Don't be obtuse, the civil service is what he's talking about.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 14:53

Scratch Monkey: Oct 25, 2010; 👰Proč bychom se netě�ili🥰kdy� n�m P�n Bůh🙌🏻zdrav� d�💪?

Alchenar posted:

He needs to consider if he'll continue Cinci's posture of never ceding ground when the thread is under attack.

NOT ONE POST BACK!

# ? Feb 1, 2023 14:58

Libluini: May 18, 2012; I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...; Grimey Drawer

evil_bunnY posted:

Ah yes, nazi officers were famously non-existent.

Indeed! Only completely innocent Wehrmacht-officers were involved in creating this system!

That, and the Bundeswehr officially derives its traditions from the very short-lived revolutionary German Republic of 1848, for obvious reasons.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 15:02

ranbo das: Oct 16, 2013

Freakazoid_ posted:

I hope there's an investigation someday, that is hosed up.

Reading the actual thread it seems like just fog of war.

They corner Russians in a house.

They start negotiating.

While people are negotiating, American 1 is killed by an explosion/ shot to the head.

American 2 thinks that the Russians are violating the truce and shoots the Russian negotiator.

Russians shoot the Irishman.

Reminds me of the earlier video where Ukranians are trying to take Russian hostages and one of them tries to use the surrender to ambush the Ukrainians and gets the whole group killed.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 15:13

Gervasius: Nov 2, 2010; Grimey Drawer

Herstory Begins Now posted:

So you're promising us he's not just being given a morning of training and sent to the front?

MobIK

# ? Feb 1, 2023 15:14

Deltasquid: Apr 10, 2013; awww...
you guys made me ink!

THUNDERDOME

bird food bathtub posted:

Possibly an America-centric point of view on the topic, so keep that in mind. My biggest concern with mandatory service is that it ends up as yet another thing that fucks over poor people and rich people abuse. A years-long time tax on people who are already dealing with the inconceivably lovely situation of being poor in America, while the rich will doctor-shop around to find excuses to get out of it or, if by some miracle actually forced in to doing it, will find a way to purchase all the best forms of service for themselves.

Depends on how it�s implemented, as always. In most cases the upper classes (or, at least, the well educated) did military service as officers but were not exempt. It�s still the case in eg South Korea where Kpop idols and stuff do not get exempted either (only some athletes, which is the main backdoor afaik)

However, mandatory service absolutely puts men on the backfoot compared to women of similar social standing / education because in most countries, women are exempted. A number of mitigating measures in South Korea have recently become points of contention as women wonder why men get transitional measures and men defend them, stating they are necessary to bridge e.g. experience or education gaps due to their mandatory service.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 15:41

BabyFur Denny: Mar 18, 2003

Deltasquid posted:

However, mandatory service absolutely puts men on the backfoot compared to women of similar social standing / education because in most countries, women are exempted. A number of mitigating measures in South Korea have recently become points of contention as women wonder why men get transitional measures and men defend them, stating they are necessary to bridge e.g. experience or education gaps due to their mandatory service.

Same in Singapore. National Service is two years. And any issue primarily affecting women will immediately be countered by "But what about NS!?"

# ? Feb 1, 2023 15:56

Nelson Mandingo: Mar 27, 2005

Donkringel posted:

Also in keeping with discussion of current events, what are the most likely targets for Ukraine if they get the longer ranged missiles? It looks like they can strike at what remains of the Black Sea fleet but I'm not sure worthwhile targets they would be since they've been sitting in port for awhile (AFAIK).

Once they retake Melitopol, they'll have safety and definitively be in rocket range of the Kerch bridge. It's at that point they can offer Russia terms of armistace or they rocket the bridge to rubble and the real humiliation begins.

Without Kerch bridge's rail and bridge system and Melitopol line, Russia relies entirely on more vulnerable boats and planes and an intense logistical challenge to resupply Crimea, which makes it increasingly more vulnerable.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:03

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Fritz the Horse posted:

fatherboxx has graciously agreed to IK this thread.

H ... hail Darkseid?

In other news, RAND Corporation is getting jumpy and we're back to the "Putin needs an offramp!" rhetoric. Here's an excerpt from the Washington Post's daily international newsletter.

quote:

The war in Ukraine, at least for some policymakers in Western capitals, can be measured in deliveries of weapons. Their response to the brutal onslaught unleashed by Russia last February has been a parade of armor and steel: Javelins, howitzers, drones, strike vehicles, antiaircraft systems, HIMARS and, most recently, battle tanks. At every stage, Kyiv has clamored for more to throw out the invading Russians, and at almost every stage, the West has acceded to Ukrainian demands, though perhaps not at the speed Ukraine would like.

The next round of wrangling may center on Ukraine�s desire for scores of multipurpose fighter jets, which Kyiv wants as it prepares to repulse a rumored forthcoming Russian offensive and reclaim Russian-held territory in the country�s southeast, as well as the Crimean peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014. �Give us your weapons, and we will get back what�s ours,� Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the global elites in Davos last month.

When asked this week if he would send F-16 jets, President Biden flatly said �no,� while British officials said it was �not practical� to send such strike craft. But French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that, �by definition, nothing is excluded� in terms of delivery of aid to Ukrainians. Such is the Western rhetorical commitment to the Ukrainian war effort. The West seems to fully embrace Ukraine�s fight for its sovereignty, as well as Kyiv�s maximalist vision for victory.

Western officials recognize that the war should (and probably can only) end diplomatically. But every time a reporter asks a Western politician or diplomat on the record what the endgame looks like, they almost always offer the same set of responses: It�s up to Ukraine to determine the conditions of the peace (even though without foreign help, they would likely not be able to hold their own); Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations; and the important task now is to arm Ukraine sufficiently so that its hand at a theoretical future negotiating table is as strong as it can be.

A new report takes issue with this position, warning that it puts the United States on the path toward open-ended conflict that could escalate even more dangerously. "Avoiding a long war: U.S. policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,� published recently by the influential RAND Corporation, a Washington-based think tank, argued that the longer the war dragged on, the more likely the risk of an escalation that could pit Russia in direct conflict with NATO and possibly see the Kremlin deploy nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Instead of enabling the war to sprawl onward, Western powers should do more to push the warring parties toward talks, it advised.

This is an argument that has been made before � including by Henry Kissinger, a venerable fixture of the U.S. foreign policy establishment. But the RAND report marks perhaps the most systematic case for a shift in policy put forward by a Washington think tank, the vast majority of which have hailed the war in Ukraine as a good and necessary fight, as well as a moment to reassert U.S. leadership on the world stage. In a departure from the Beltway script, the report does not reference �democracy,� �rule of law,� or Western �values� once.

In sober terms, the report�s authors, political scientists Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe, spell out the troubling structural factors of the war: Neither Russia nor Ukraine has a chance to secure �absolute victory� in the way they see it, yet both countries feel optimistic about their ability to win out in the longer run and are pessimistic about what may follow a cease-fire or uneasy peace.

Whatever the political rhetoric, uncertainty looms over how long the West can sustain its flows of aid and weapons to Ukraine. A new Pew poll shows that more Americans already believe the United States is giving too much to Ukraine, while the RAND report�s authors point to the obvious reality that an extended war would see more Ukrainian suffering and more economic havoc in Europe.

Then there�s the question of nuclear weapons. For months, Ukraine and its allies have urged their supporters to ignore Russian President Vladimir Putin�s sporadic attempts at nuclear brinkmanship.

�It�s a scare tactic,� Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine�s military intelligence chief, recently told my colleagues in Kyiv. �Russia is a country that you can expect a lot from but not outright idiocy. Sorry, but it�s not going to happen. Carrying out a nuclear strike will result in not just a military defeat for Russia but the collapse of Russia. And they know this very well.�

Even then, Charap and Priebe point to the reality of the risk of �a hot war with a country that has the world�s largest nuclear arsenal.� An escalation in hostilities, perhaps even triggered by targeting errors or other tactical miscalculations in the fog of war, could quickly pull NATO countries into an open clash with Russia.

�Keeping a Russia-NATO war below the nuclear threshold would be extremely difficult, particularly given the weakened state of Russia�s conventional military,� they wrote. �Some analysts are doubtful that Russia would attack a NATO country since it is already losing ground to Ukrainian forces and would find itself in a war with the world�s most powerful alliance. However, if the Kremlin concluded that the country�s national security was severely imperiled, it might well deliberately escalate for lack of better alternatives.�

Why court such a scenario, they argue, when even settling along the current lines of the conflict would mark a significant Russian defeat? �The war has already been so devastating to Russian power that further incremental weakening is arguably no longer as significant a benefit for U.S. interests as in the earlier phases of the conflict,� Charap and Priebe wrote. �It will take years, perhaps even decades, for the Russian military and economy to recover from the damage already incurred.�

In a separate essay for the Economist, Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, made a similar claim: �If the negotiations froze the battlelines where they are now, Putin would have paid a very high price for very limited gains,� he wrote. �His armed forces have displayed their incompetence to the whole world. Russia is now a pariah state and its relationship with Europe � for centuries its most important � is destroyed. Sanctions will slow Russia�s economic growth for years to come, even if they are eventually moderated in return for concessions from the Kremlin.�

The RAND authors advise, among other things, that the United States should offer a road map to Russia for what the conditions for eventual sanctions relief would look like. Chivvis contended that embarking even on an imperfect, fitful process of negotiations or talks about talks would be preferable to buying into the idea that Russia can be wholly dislodged from Ukrainian territory.

�Yes, it would be nice if Ukraine clawed back some more territory,� he wrote. �But at what cost and for what strategic gain? Even in the unlikely event that the West were to back Ukraine to the hilt for many years and were eventually to force Russia out of all Ukrainian territory, Russia would probably restart the war at some point to salvage its lost gains and its reputation.�

Charap and Priebe acknowledged in their introduction �that Ukrainians have been the ones fighting and dying to protect their country against an unprovoked, illegal, and morally repugnant Russian invasion.� But that still, in their view, does not mean that Ukraine�s interests are �synonymous� with those of the United States.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:16

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Moon Slayer posted:

H ... hail Darkseid?

In other news, RAND Corporation is getting jumpy and we're back to the "Putin needs an offramp!" rhetoric. Here's an excerpt from the Washington Post's daily international newsletter.

It sounds like they�re trying to capitalise on the attention focused by the reports of the seeming breakdown of the New Start treaty.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:19

Libluini: May 18, 2012; I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...; Grimey Drawer

Training of Ukrainian soldiers inside EU-stateswill be doubled .

The training programs running in the different EU-states currently train 15k soldiers. The new goal is training 30k soldiers.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:31

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

Moon Slayer posted:

H ... hail Darkseid?

In other news, RAND Corporation is getting jumpy and we're back to the "Putin needs an offramp!" rhetoric. Here's an excerpt from the Washington Post's daily international newsletter.

quote:

�Yes, it would be nice if Ukraine clawed back some more territory,� he wrote. �But at what cost and for what strategic gain? Even in the unlikely event that the West were to back Ukraine to the hilt for many years and were eventually to force Russia out of all Ukrainian territory, Russia would probably restart the war at some point to salvage its lost gains and its reputation.�

And freezing the conflict would forestall Russia from doing the same thing from a stronger position... how, exactly?

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:42

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Libluini posted:

Training of Ukrainian soldiers inside EU-stateswill be doubled .

The training programs running in the different EU-states currently train 15k soldiers. The new goal is training 30k soldiers.

As per our news, it seems that this was one of the things decided at Ramstein, since our defence ministry announced 2000-soldier training programme (twice the 2022 scale) the next business day after the Ramstein meeting. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/latvija-sogad-apmacis-ap-2000-ukrainu-karaviru.a492653/

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:44

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

the holy poopacy posted:

And freezing the conflict would forestall Russia from doing the same thing from a stronger position... how, exactly?

It's from the same guy who wrote an article like 10 months ago about how weapons aid to Ukraine won't make any difference.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:48

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# ? May 23, 2024 11:02

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

fatherboxx posted:

Thank you all for condolences

Better you than me, you poor bastard. Good luck.

the holy poopacy posted:

And freezing the conflict would forestall Russia from doing the same thing from a stronger position... how, exactly?

Honestly, it's kind of a weird tension going on because it increasingly feels like Ukrainian total victory is unlikely without spending years at war which seems difficult to sustain, but at the same time it's hard to see how a negotiated settlement could possibly assuage Ukraine's security concerns given the likelihood of Russia doing exactly what you say.

# ? Feb 1, 2023 16:50

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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