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ThinkTank posted:The Stanley Cup is consistently won by whatever team is hottest over the final 20 games. Kind of a true-but-not-instructive tautology innit
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Feb 2, 2023 18:08
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T-Bone posted:LA won two Cups playing Carolina's style. The most notable part of that style being "has the puck at all loving times." hrmmm if only there was a difference between LA's cup winning team and the current Carolina team. mayhaps a position variable that i addressed in my original post. also, LA was a grinder team, thats what i mean by carolinas "shoot it anywhere" approach not working. when the other teams star players are willing to clog up the shooting lanes with their own dick ~*~*~*~BECAUSE IT'S THE CUP ~*~*~*~ the scoring rate will diminish. thats what happened to tampa in 2019. Wonderllama fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Feb 2, 2023 |
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Feb 2, 2023 18:19
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Quick was brilliant in the first run, but had just a .911 in their second run. The Blues won with a .914 from Binnington. The Avalanche won with a .902 from Kuemper. Of course goaltending is important, but their goaltending isn't bad, it's just not incredible. Good thing they're one of the best if not the best 5v5 teams in recorded history. Also if you don't think Carolina is a "grinder team" then just lol you haven't watched them (and I don't blame you, they're incredibly boring) -- they're the definition of a grinder team, the epitome even. T-Bone fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Feb 2, 2023 |
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Feb 2, 2023 18:30
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yea the Hurricanes are grindy as gently caress. You look at the roster and you say "yea they're ok I guess" but you wouldn't think they have the record they do.
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Feb 2, 2023 18:31
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It was honestly discouraging watching them play the Devils earlier this season. It was like watching the US vs Team Canada when Canada turned it on, just a complete inability to access the puck. And again I'm not saying they're like unbeatable or anything, just that short of Ullmark putting up a .940 in the playoffs I've got them as co-favorites or very close to Boston. They're an incredibly good hockey team and as much as I dislike Boston and am horrified by Carolina's style of play it would be an all-time great ECF probably
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Feb 2, 2023 18:38
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T-Bone posted:Quick was brilliant in the first run, but had just a .911 in their second run. The Blues won with a .914 from Binnington. The Avalanche won with a .902 from Kuemper. Of course goaltending is important, but their goaltending isn't bad, it's just not incredible. Good thing they're one of the best if not the best 5v5 teams in recorded history. no you're right, i watched them last postseason and they weren't. good on them if they completely overhauled their ideology in one season (and are still successful). it took tampa half a season of growing pains to learn to play playoff hockey.
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Feb 2, 2023 18:40
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You obviously have watched Tampa way more than I have, but what impressed me a lot about the Lightning these last three years is how well they adopted the 08/09 Red Wings level of interference away from the puck. Some of the best slogging I've seen in the modern era.
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Feb 2, 2023 18:44
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re: Carolina Why hasn't Aho or Svechnikov become stars? Both looked like they were on the cusp, and then just never took that next step. Of course, they continue to be great players.
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Feb 2, 2023 18:45
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I think you could make a pretty good case that Aho is a star. If you buy Game Score avg he's 9th.
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Feb 2, 2023 18:48
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Aho is a superstar, borderline top ten in the league. He's a monster defensive forward in addition to his obvious offensive skills. No one knows or cares because he plays in Raleigh and looks like he's 12. Svech I dunno. Awesome puck skills but not great at finding space and goes through stretches where he just floats around Kapanen style.
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Feb 2, 2023 18:49
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Eric the Mauve posted:Kind of a true-but-not-instructive tautology innit No, it means that forget about the first 75% of the regular season its irrelevant. Whoever is best down the stretch has the highest chance of winning the cup. If the Bruins go 18-13 down the stretch they'll handily win the President's trophy but likely should not be considered a cup favourite (but everyone will because we naturally look at overall record forgetting that games in October and November happened a half year prior to those in April).
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Feb 2, 2023 19:03
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Is there a ThinkTank age chart for teams getting hot going into the playoffs and playoff success correlation? The one that's burned in my brain is the 2000 Devils being so bad down the stretch that it cost Ftorek his job (March 23rd!), of course Robinson took over and yadda yadda yadda, but maybe firing a coach breaks the rule
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Feb 2, 2023 19:05
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Aho is very good and I think definitely a star player, but top-10 is a stretch
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Feb 2, 2023 19:07
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T-Bone posted:Is there a ThinkTank age chart for teams getting hot going into the playoffs and playoff success correlation? It's been years since I've seen it but I'm familiar with the "it's the last 25% of the season that matters" bit. It's about a third/third/third between "October was so long ago those games don't have a ton of predictive value," "rosters can meaningfully change at the trade deadline," and "last quarter better captures non-random things that affect team results like injuries." So it's more substantive than "which team gets hot," even though it can seem like that at a glance.
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Feb 2, 2023 19:17
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Hand Knit posted:It's been years since I've seen it but I'm familiar with the "it's the last 25% of the season that matters" bit. It's about a third/third/third between "October was so long ago those games don't have a ton of predictive value," "rosters can meaningfully change at the trade deadline," and "last quarter better captures non-random things that affect team results like injuries." So it's more substantive than "which team gets hot," even though it can seem like that at a glance. The West seems right in line with that thinking. It's just too lovely to predict. I feel like I could give a pretty good assessment of likely Eastern outcomes right now, but so much of the West is going to depend on the deadline/injuries and teams getting hot.
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Feb 2, 2023 19:25
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Twin Cinema posted:Why hasn't Aho or Svechnikov become stars? Both looked like they were on the cusp, and then just never took that next step. Of course, they continue to be great players. They play in Carolina
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Feb 2, 2023 19:29
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god just thinking about Carolina/Boston relentlessly checking McDavid in the final while he makes the pouty face as they get swept
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Feb 2, 2023 19:30
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T-Bone posted:The West seems right in line with that thinking. It's just too lovely to predict. I feel like I could give a pretty good assessment of likely Eastern outcomes right now, but so much of the West is going to depend on the deadline/injuries and teams getting hot. I'm pretty confident that one of Dallas and Colorado will make the WCF. Maybe even both if the Avs stay in the wild card and end up on the Pacific side of the bracket. The rest of the conference is a crapshoot. There are a lot of mediocre teams there. I'd take all of Boston/Toronto/Tampa/Carolina/New Jersey over any team from the West, except maybe Colorado. The Rangers are better than most of the West too.
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Feb 2, 2023 19:34
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kind of an interesting article proposing an issue with the way people think about hockey players or teams: https://chacemccallum.substack.com/p/overfitting-and-how-i-think-about Just came to mind with all this talk about the Canes.. The article talks about how it's very easy to come up with broad explanations for why a team or a type of player isn't successful and then search out support for those theories, like for example claiming you can't win the Stanley Cup without a superstar on your roster, or claiming that you shouldn't draft defensemen under 6'-0" tall. Part of the reason for this is that humans are very bad at picking out signal from noise, and this effect is compounded when you are dealing with circumstances where there is much more failure than success (only 1 out of 32 teams wins the cup, only a small percentage of players drafted make the NHL) so you will end up with lots of evidence of players or teams that meet your criteria who failed even if the theory you are working with is junk (because lots of teams and players of any description fail).
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Feb 2, 2023 19:35
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Jamwad Hilder posted:I'd take all of Boston/Toronto/Tampa/Carolina/New Jersey over any team from the West, except maybe Colorado. The Rangers are better than most of the West too. yeah I just said this exact thing to boxc on disc
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Feb 2, 2023 19:38
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I feel confident in predicting that the Toronto Maple Leafs will continue to be the Toronto Maple Leafs
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Feb 2, 2023 19:41
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Eric the Mauve posted:I feel confident in predicting that the Toronto Maple Leafs will continue to be the Toronto Maple Leafs Let the Leafs win the cup. Rip the "no Leafs cup since 67" and “No Cup in Canada since 93" band-aids off in one go. Sure their fans will be insufferable for a while but they've been so downbeat for so long I figure they're pretty much the most palatable Canadian franchise to do it at the moment.
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Feb 2, 2023 19:57
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alright boys, girls, and non binary pals I've got $100 on the Canes to win the Cup, $800 payout let's go
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Feb 2, 2023 20:21
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ThinkTank posted:Let the Leafs win the cup. Rip the "no Leafs cup since 67" and “No Cup in Canada since 93" band-aids off in one go. Sure their fans will be insufferable for a while but they've been so downbeat for so long I figure they're pretty much the most palatable Canadian franchise to do it at the moment. Forgive me, I am an infrequent visitor here, but "Toronto is the least annoying Canadian fans" could age very badly, if they win a round or two!
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Feb 2, 2023 21:44
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As a Leafs fan I must say, god drat Leafs fans are still loving annoying. But I also remember Ottawa and Vancouver fans during their runs and I don’t believe their behaviour is much worse, it’s just that there’d be More Bad Takes for a limited amount of time. But really the Leafs chances hinge entirely on them going on a random heater. Even at their best they can play Tampa/Boston fairly closely but you’d never call them better, and that’s an awful lot of coin flips to win in a row to get through. This team needs a step to separate from the pack and I just don’t see how they get there with the current salary structure.
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Feb 2, 2023 22:00
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Carwash oval office posted:Forgive me, I am an infrequent visitor here, but "Toronto is the least annoying Canadian fans" could age very badly, if they win a round or two! They're a bunch of dejected eeyore fans who don't believe anything good will ever happen to them. I feel they won't be truly insufferable until they make the Cup Finals.
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Feb 2, 2023 22:02
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Matthews is gonna lift the cup with the bloody stump of his wrist, the rest of his hand dangling off to the side attached only by a thin strip of skin and that paste trainers use to fix up messy high stick wounds.
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Feb 2, 2023 22:07
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Leafs fans will pour out into the streets to celebrate and the Jake Gardiner Expressway will finally collapse from the weight thereof.
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Feb 2, 2023 22:10
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If I had to pick a playoffs when the Leafs seemed like they were really clicking or playing above their ceiling it’s probably uh, never? Charitably the Washington series in 2016 when nobody expected anything of them? But every year someone important gets catastrophically injured for the season, or Matthews has lost the ability to shoot, the goaltender is always playing worse than the guy at the other end of the rink, the coach seems tactically overmatched, and nobody down the roster ever steps up (usually a non-star does something to cost the Leafs a game). I’d say they’re probably due for a series where things go their way regardless of roster and stats but I know that’s not actually how it works.
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Feb 2, 2023 22:15
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Koopa Kid posted:But I also remember Ottawa and Vancouver fans during their runs and I don’t believe their behaviour is much worse, it’s just that there’d be More Bad Takes for a limited amount of time. Low bar but yeah, as long as Toronto doesn't burn down you're probably behaving yourselves better than Vancouver handled it... and Ottawa fans were just in denial that they might actually win.
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Feb 2, 2023 22:17
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Starsfan posted:kind of an interesting article proposing an issue with the way people think about hockey players or teams: That was really interesting. Thanks!
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Feb 2, 2023 22:33
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Koopa Kid posted:If I had to pick a playoffs when the Leafs seemed like they were really clicking or playing above their ceiling it’s probably uh, never? Charitably the Washington series in 2016 when nobody expected anything of them? I will be sad the day that I can no longer say that the the Sabres had won a playoff series more recently than the Leafs.
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Feb 2, 2023 23:22
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Koopa Kid posted:If I had to pick a playoffs when the Leafs seemed like they were really clicking or playing above their ceiling it’s probably uh, never? Charitably the Washington series in 2016 when nobody expected anything of them? Not one mention of the playoff classic, Marner Delay of Game penalties
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Feb 2, 2023 23:26
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Duckman2008 posted:In Jersey everything’s legal as long as you don’t get caught. This drat well better be a reference to the Traveling Wilburys and not the Headstones
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Feb 2, 2023 23:41
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The Dirty Burger posted:Not one mention of the playoff classic, Marner Delay of Game penalties Or Nylander going ah gently caress it I'm not goin into the corner this game's 5-1
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Feb 2, 2023 23:41
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grack posted:This drat well better be a reference to the Traveling Wilburys and not the Headstones And the walls came down All the way to hell Never saw them when they’re standing Never saw them when they fell
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Feb 3, 2023 00:28
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I hope the Sens win the Bedard and Ryan Reynolds lotteries this summer.
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Feb 3, 2023 01:45
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Blackbelt Bobman posted:I will be sad the day that I can no longer say that the the Sabres had won a playoff series more recently than the Leafs. I don't believe in curses but that doesn't mean I think the leafs have to turn it around eventually without much better roster construction so hey, maybe that day won't arrive! Ginette Reno posted:Or Nylander going ah gently caress it I'm not goin into the corner this game's 5-1 I mean, one of those things isn't like the other, Nylander playing at exactly one speed and urgency level is who he is and something that coaching and linemates can account for, Marner having meltdowns/losing his hand-eye when the pressure gets turned up is a bit more of an issue.
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Feb 3, 2023 02:26
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I just want Boston to beat Toronto in 7 games, then for Buffalo to win the cup on the back of Tage Thompson, then the Canucks get Bedard in the draft, Aquilini discovers that the best thing he can do to impress his critics and more importantly his papa is to sell the team to Mark Cuban, who hires Mike Gillis in a hands-off role, who brings in Linden and the Sedins, and the team rebuilds over the next 4 years retaining Petterson and Hughes and no one else from their current roster, and then THIS IS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR CANUCKS FANS RIGHT NOW GOOD LORD
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Feb 3, 2023 02:36
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I would think the best-case scenario for Canucks fans would be making the playoffs and winning the cup, but alas I don't fully understand how people cheer for their teams.
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Feb 3, 2023 02:46
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