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Dandywalken posted:Its weird we havent seen more Kornet tbh. I was expecting it to be common, but Konkurs soldiers on. Probably not a lot of them (like most of their "advanced" stuff) and the Konkurs is considered "good enough" for T-72/T-64/T-80's.
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Feb 7, 2023 18:52
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OddObserver posted:Are you sure it's not referring to this? It's what the article said, at least. But I'm also phoneposting on my way home, so I could have missed something while reading. 
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Feb 7, 2023 19:08
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Zudgemud posted:While the Leo1 is wet paper compared to most tanks the base model has over the years been upgraded with various kits which makes it a bit more armored. So depending on the version it might have a tile of composite armor bolted on somewhere! IIRC the only Leo 1s that ever actually had a composite kit in service was the Canadian Leopard C2 with the MEXAS add on armour and those were all scrapped a while ago I think. Either way while it's no Leopard 2A4 in terms of armor or gun an upgraded Leopard 1A5 can still punch decently hard against the older T-72s being thrown around (or anything from the side or rear) if they can scrounge up some DM63 or M900 ammunition, would have a fairly effective fire control system and thermal imaging system, etc... It's definitely still useful.
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Feb 7, 2023 19:41
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It should be noted that delivery timelines for 1A5 go into '24 at a trickle of a few per month, because they were stored demilitarised when they were't actively being scrapped. And it seems to me that the number of countries committing 2A4 or 2A6 isn't particularly large so far. If I were a snarky poster, I'd post überraschtes_pikachu.png here.
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Feb 7, 2023 19:42
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Libluini posted:It's what the article said, at least. But I'm also phoneposting on my way home, so I could have missed something while reading. Canada sent one almost immediately so it's probably this https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1622499393986330624 Chalks fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Feb 7, 2023 |
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Feb 7, 2023 19:55
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Ukraine has a lot of territory that isn't in imminent danger that still needs something to guard it. An old tank can sit on the border with Belarus as well as a new one.
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Feb 7, 2023 19:58
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Canada has already sent its small contribution of 4 Leopard 2s. Since the bulk of Canada's contributions so far have consisted providing training and economic support, I suspect those tanks are going to be used to immediately boot up the Leopard 2 training program in anticipation of the rest rolling in from other contributors later. E:fb
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Feb 7, 2023 19:59
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Antigravitas posted:It should be noted that delivery timelines for 1A5 go into '24 at a trickle of a few per month, because they were stored demilitarised when they were't actively being scrapped. Kind of, but the louder Leopards-having parties are sending them, e.g., Poland. The only notable omission for the initial wave of Leopards, which I had thought as the real value check for the state of affairs in European militaries anyhow, is Spain. Turns out, not the vast majority of their 2A4 tanks were rotten, but all of them. Going the list of operators by count descending, Greece wasn't huge on sending weapons to Ukraine, and Finland has a certain large eastwards reason to be conservative in their approach to it all. The next largest 2 tank operators of countries yet to send any are Austria and Switzerland, it seems, which isn't happening, and then we get to like Hungary. After that, we remain with a list of countries nominally having 0–50 Leopards in active service, as far as western countries yet to pitch in are concerned. Now, this doesn't say much at all about the reserve numbers and the industry stocks. That conversation, I think, is going to resolve itself naturally towards the autumn, when it's more clear what sort of mileage Ukraine is getting out of presently alien to them tanks.
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Feb 7, 2023 20:48
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Things going great for the Russians in Bakhmut! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/07/ukraine-releases-video-appearing-to-show-russian-troops-beating-own-wounded-officer quote:Ukraine has released extraordinary video footage that appears to show Russian fighters dragging their badly wounded commander away from the battlefield, and then beating him violently with what appear to be shovels.
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Feb 7, 2023 21:34
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https://twitter.com/PeterMartin_PCM/status/1623045170659729412?t=AZm32gzBnZyorEVOSYSKlw&s=19
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Feb 7, 2023 21:35
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Moon Slayer posted:https://twitter.com/PeterMartin_PCM/status/1623045170659729412?t=AZm32gzBnZyorEVOSYSKlw&s=19 Weren't they downsizing their HIMARS order out of backlog complaints, in favour of Korean not-HIMARS?
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Feb 7, 2023 22:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Weren't they downsizing their HIMARS order out of backlog complaints, in favour of Korean not-HIMARS? Perhaps impressed enough by their performance in Ukraine they decided to wait? It's not like Russia invading is as big a concern right now
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Feb 7, 2023 22:17
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Scratch Monkey posted:Perhaps impressed enough by their performance in Ukraine they decided to wait? It's not like Russia invading is as big a concern right now Doesn't sound at all like Polish defence procurement, in fact. Here, I've looked it up https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-warsaw-government-and-politics-europe-e16e1f35bbb10663e1dad65547b76f2a quote:WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland signed a deal Wednesday to buy hundreds of South Korean multiple rocket launchers amid efforts to step up the nation’s defenses in light of the war in neighboring Ukraine. They're splitting 500 HIMARS package into waves of Chunmoo and HIMARS purchases, with first deliveries already in 2023, and the final goal of being able to manufacture parts of both Chunmoo and HIMARS domestically. https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/himars-and-k239-chunmoo-launchers-will-be-partially-produced-in-poland
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Feb 7, 2023 22:22
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Scratch Monkey posted:Perhaps impressed enough by their performance in Ukraine they decided to wait? It's not like Russia invading is as big a concern right now The Korean not-HIMARS is ammunition-compatible. It doesn't really matter which "western" MLRS vehicle you buy.
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Feb 7, 2023 22:27
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The Economist this week has a good article on how South Korea still refuses to send arms directly to Ukraine. But that the Koreans don't seem to care about sending arms to countries to replace their arms (even if they're identical - like artillery ammunition) so that those countries can send their original arms to Ukraine: https://archive.is/0wrfl Could be something along those lines happening here too - purchasing of Korean not-HIMARs will allow to Poland to send more actual-HIMARS to Ukraine.
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Feb 7, 2023 23:15
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"Whoops, we accidentally bought HIMARS from the US and South Korea. Weird how that happened, must have been a paperwork error. Guess we'll send the American ones on to Ukraine." Stranger things have happened.
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Feb 7, 2023 23:32
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Russians still taking tons of loses for every gain. https://mobile.twitter.com/GhosttOps6/status/1622699467261476864
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Feb 8, 2023 00:42
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are those disabled tanks in the third picture? I thought they were just lined up
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Feb 8, 2023 00:45
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Flavahbeast posted:are those disabled tanks in the third picture? I thought they were just lined up Another tweet says those are unconfirmed.
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Feb 8, 2023 00:52
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Flavahbeast posted:are those disabled tanks in the third picture? I thought they were just lined up I've got the same question, this looks like a convoy driving, even before I ask for a geo on it. There's plenty of more accessible and confidence-inspiring evidence from Vuhledar, however, that in the best possible to the Russian offensive interpretation would imply quite the cost. I'm starting to suspect that Bakhmut/Kreminna/Vuhledar right now are grislier than literally any other battle of the war yet, except for maybe like underprepared and under-equipped Chernihiv stopping the Taman' division of 1st GTA at the start of the war.
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Feb 8, 2023 00:56
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all of those have already been geolocated afaik, at least the locations of the photos. idk about 5-16 but at least half of those appear to have significant melted patches around/near them. that's also a still from a video that I don't believe has been released yet (or at least hadn't last time I looked) a bunch of those are sourced from https://twitter.com/Deepstate_UA (may be nws/nms on timeline? I didn't look super far) Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:15 on Feb 8, 2023 |
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Feb 8, 2023 01:11
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I admit I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be more domestic backlash by this point in Russia, they really seem to be churning through new guys, and for zero or near-zero gains. Like, isn't the narrative that mothers of soldiers pushed back on the war in Afghanistan, and that was with far fewer losses than here? I know Putin has a stranglehold on the media, but there's only so much you can suppress people's sons and husbands being killed.
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Feb 8, 2023 03:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You do have a point, in the earnest – Zelenskyy ran on an anti-corruption platform, but his performance until 2022 was nowhere near as inspiring comparatively. Now, however, between the Russian tanks and the western eyes, there's not at all much room for shadow left in the governance of Ukraine. Obviously, it's not without blemishes – the court thing was not fantastic and required some European screaming to straighten out, for instance – but to anyone invested into the factual reality, anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine are unquestionably at their recorded peak today. It is instructional in how a country in existential crisis can dissolve the climate of tolerance for grift & graft.
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Feb 8, 2023 03:34
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Cicero posted:I admit I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be more domestic backlash by this point in Russia, they really seem to be churning through new guys, and for zero or near-zero gains. They’ve very explicitly targeted wives and mothers of soldiers who complain. The last time someone confronted Putin, in this case regarding the Kursk, they sedated her on live TV. They’ve also arrested organizers from the Afghan days for stirring up dissent.
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Feb 8, 2023 03:38
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Putin and Co spent the last few years crushing civil society in Russia in preparation for something like this. The plan was to go through Ukraine, Moldova, then start probing NATO or going after Finland. We're just really fortunate they faceplanted on step one, like the Saudis in Yemen.
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Feb 8, 2023 03:41
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Cicero posted:I admit I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be more domestic backlash by this point in Russia, they really seem to be churning through new guys, and for zero or near-zero gains. Despite what you may have heard the US is a functioning democracy with a media environment that is largely not controlled by the state. Russia is a failed democracy with state dominated media. It’s apples and oranges. There’s also a hugely different free speech regime. To repurpose an old Soviet joke, Russians have the same free speech rights as Americans. In the U.S., you can stand in Lafayette Square across from the White House and yell that Joe Biden is a senile old imperialist and no one will arrest you. In Russia, you can stand in Red Square near the Kremlin and yell that Joe Biden is a senile old imperialist, and no one will arrest you! Ogmius815 fucked around with this message at 03:48 on Feb 8, 2023 |
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Feb 8, 2023 03:44
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Ogmius815 posted:Despite what you may have heard the US is a functioning democracy with a media environment that is largely not controlled by the state. Russia is a failed democracy with state dominated media. It’s apples and oranges. He meant the Russian Afghan adventure, not the American one, and yes, that one WAS influenced by Soviet mothers raising hell about their dead boys. Putin apparently learned the lesson and did his best to neuter those organizations.
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Feb 8, 2023 03:51
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I've got the same question, this looks like a convoy driving, even before I ask for a geo on it. There's plenty of more accessible and confidence-inspiring evidence from Vuhledar, however, that in the best possible to the Russian offensive interpretation would imply quite the cost. I'm starting to suspect that Bakhmut/Kreminna/Vuhledar right now are grislier than literally any other battle of the war yet, except for maybe like underprepared and under-equipped Chernihiv stopping the Taman' division of 1st GTA at the start of the war. Bakhmut has been the new Verdun for some months now. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html quote:Ukraine’s casualty figures are also difficult to ascertain, given Kyiv’s reluctance to disclose its own wartime losses. But in Bakhmut, hundreds of Ukrainian troops have been wounded and killed daily at times as well, officials said. Better trained infantry formations are kept in reserve to safeguard them, while lesser prepared troops, such as those in the territorial defense units, are kept on the front line and bear the brunt of shelling. https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-02-01/battle-for-bakhmut-turns-into-a-meat-grinder-for-russian-and-ukrainian-armies.html quote:The New York Times published a report at the end of November stating that Bakhmut hospital was attending to 240 wounded Ukrainian soldiers per day. Since then, the situation for the city’s defenders has worsened. Russia has been targeting Bakhmut since the beginning of the invasion, but it was last November that the Kremlin launched its full military might against the city. Attacks have intensified since January 6, when a surprise attack by Wagner mercenaries gave them almost total control of Soledar, a town located 11 miles from Bakhmut. Now, the Russian mercenaries are besieging the city on three flanks, with the opposing armies locked in street-to-street combat. The Ukrainians are using their own fodder and keeping the professionals and better-equipped NG units in reserve. It is unfortunate but it makes no sense to allow them to be ground down by Wagner while they await the potential Russian attack whenever that is. Everyone talks more tanks, maybe get them more of those fancy artillery systems that can hit back at Russian artillery systems as well. Bakhmut is appearing to enter the end game. The Russians are within 5 kilometers of the final supply route SW of the city and only a small village on the outskirts keeps the Russians at bay. On the northern side, the Russians have taken high ground and are threatening to hit that last supply road from the north.
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Feb 8, 2023 04:27
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Tomn posted:He meant the Russian Afghan adventure, not the American one, and yes, that one WAS influenced by Soviet mothers raising hell about their dead boys. Putin apparently learned the lesson and did his best to neuter those organizations. Oh duh. Oof.
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Feb 8, 2023 05:48
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Libluini posted:It's what the article said, at least. But I'm also phoneposting on my way home, so I could have missed something while reading. Man please read the article more carefully next time and don't post some half assed understanding of it. The article explicitly refers to the twitter picture of the tiny leopard 2 model when talking about "the first leopard having arrived"
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Feb 8, 2023 09:07
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1623241025631256576?t=6O0cQB8Q4UJStwcucae4yQ&s=19 Drumming up support in the UK today
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Feb 8, 2023 09:46
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Herstory Begins Now posted:all of those have already been geolocated afaik, at least the locations of the photos. If they have already been geolocated, it would be much more useful to just post that geolocation, instead of having people rely on a post from a random, disposable Twitter account. freeasinbeer posted:They’ve also arrested organizers from the Afghan days for stirring up dissent. Not just that – they've spun up fake “committees of soldiers mothers” run by like wives of the current crop of generals and so on, to not only dilute the discourse around what the committee is saying, but also to even try promoting the war through that venue too. MikeC posted:Bakhmut has been the new Verdun for some months now. Oh, no disagreement there – I just feel that it's turning from “a flashpoint” into “the flashpoint”. Grinding warfare has been going on since the summer there, sure. It has just intensified markedly lately, as the facts seem to be incrementally adding up to “human wave” poo poo being a coherent tactical decision, by Wagner in particular, to feed convicts into the grinder. Speaking of that, here's a report of a convict being threatened with a lopsided “retrial” if he refuses to join Wagner in Ukraine. https://t.me/agentstvonews/2482 And yeah, I think Bakhmut will end up being a Ukrainian retreat, their messaging on it not being too suggestive of the opposite. It could very well be a job done well for their strategic planners, all said and done, as Bakhmut is not particularly significant, and took plenty of resources out of RuAF. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:49 on Feb 8, 2023 |
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Feb 8, 2023 11:33
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A Downing Street press release says that UK will offer to improve the training program for Ukranian troops, including fighter jet pilots on NATO aircraft. Possibly the first public acknowledgement of Ukraine getting western aircraft training? Edit: Source https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ussian-invasion Ahdinko fucked around with this message at 12:48 on Feb 8, 2023 |
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Feb 8, 2023 11:59
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yeah ^ article: https://www.ft.com/content/ff8dda4d-9986-4e7b-b57b-2ba2db912d81 https://archive.is/i9Ge9
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Feb 8, 2023 12:27
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Ahdinko posted:A Downing Street press release says that UK will offer to improve the training program for Ukranian troops, including fighter jet pilots on NATO aircraft.
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Feb 8, 2023 12:47
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I wonder if the long range stuff will finally be some Stormshadows? Not sure what else we have. I don't think we would be in a position to provide large numbers of Stormshadows, but even a small number might have high strategic value. Would need some work for launch platform integration. Planes; the only realistic option are some tranche 1 eurofighters that we keep dithering about for eary retirement due to being limited to air superiority jobs only. So of questionable value versus the f-16 option. I think this will really be just training so they have a larger pool of pilots ready. I wonder how much is it's about training their experienced pilots for western planes and how much is the need for basic training to bolster their overall pilot talent pool.
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Feb 8, 2023 12:51
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There has been the odd vague mention of "Of course Ukrainians are currently being trained on F-16s" for a while, but these are usually background noise from commentators and I have never seen it formally backed up by a credible or official source.
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Feb 8, 2023 13:24
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I imagine the pilot training announcement is a momentum builder rather than any hint that jet donations are on the way. Similar to how the Challenger MBT donation was more of an ice-breaker than anything to get the ball rolling on MBT donations from other nations, having a bunch of pilots already trained to fly NATO jets removes an excuse/obstacle to not delivering them. E: I do wonder what we'll train them on though. We fly Typhoons and F-35's which I doubt we'd donate in any significant numbers. We also train with Hawk T.2's and host F-15s from the USAF. kemikalkadet fucked around with this message at 13:50 on Feb 8, 2023 |
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Feb 8, 2023 13:46
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There's zero chance of them getting F-35 so it's seems both pointless and cruel to give them a taste of it. The Typhoon is a lot closer to what they might eventually get. Unless we're just providing the airfields for f-16 operatirs to do the training.
Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 14:03 on Feb 8, 2023 |
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Feb 8, 2023 13:57
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We have been training the Qataris on the typhoon for a few years so there is already a training program for it in place already.
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Feb 8, 2023 14:28
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