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jaete posted:Wait, what? You're not saying that Russia has actually been launching Kalibrs at Ukraine from the Baltic are you? I'm willing to bet they meant the Black Sea.
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Feb 8, 2023 21:29
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PederP posted:Russian spokespeople seem significantly more upset about F16s than MBTs. I was actually earlier thinking why Sweden isn't selling Gripen to Ukraine on a lend-lease-type of deal? Buy now, pay back when the Swedish government starts to confiscate Russian assets.
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Feb 8, 2023 21:49
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A lot of people seem to think that Gripens would be the best or one of the best fits for Ukraine, albeit the prevailing question for most supplies for Ukraine has simply been the quantity that they're available in
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Feb 8, 2023 22:08
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FT has a handly little piece summarizing what the EU MIC is up to at the moment. https://www.ft.com/content/ea5b48b1-61e6-4c91-8778-4cc2edaff0ca
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Feb 8, 2023 23:03
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Rinkles posted:Joke, or is this referring to a specific ban? cinci zoo sniper posted:No, not joking. There's a known shithead Telegram channel “Baltic antifascists”, that has not all that much to do with anti-fascism, and our security services (misremembered counter-intelligence participation though, that was on TV Rain and the February spy court cases only) seem to have figured out who runs it. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/lat...legram.a484477/ We have an update, by the way – one of the “Baltic antifascists” channel admins has been arrested shortly after their recent (?? lmao) arrival to Latvia, having left for Russia around August 2022. She's a known political activist, a member of the local pro-Russian populist party, with a public record of Kremlin-sponsored activism no less. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/drosibas-dienests-aiztur-vienu-no-ta-sauktajiem-baltijas-antifasistiem.a495261/ Edit: cinci zoo sniper posted:Speaking of that, here's a report of a convict being threatened with a lopsided “retrial” if he refuses to join Wagner in Ukraine. https://t.me/agentstvonews/2482 If anyone's curious to read about Wagner's recruitment problems further, by the way, Mediazona has a nice, lengthy piece on their waning rapport with Russian prisoners. https://zona.media/article/2023/02/06/verbovka cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:39 on Feb 8, 2023 |
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Feb 8, 2023 23:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:FT has a handly little piece summarizing what the EU MIC is up to at the moment. https://www.ft.com/content/ea5b48b1-61e6-4c91-8778-4cc2edaff0ca I didn't see a super obvious way around that paywall (stop loading, direct link, ...). Is it a more formal journalistic equivalent to whatever is the polar opposite is to "US MIC go brrrrrr"?
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Feb 9, 2023 00:09
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Saladman posted:I didn't see a super obvious way around that paywall (stop loading, direct link, ...). Is it a more formal journalistic equivalent to whatever is the polar opposite is to "US MIC go brrrrrr"?
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Feb 9, 2023 00:34
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Just a quick reminder that tweets, even wordy descriptive ones from media like this, need to be accompanied with some kind of commentary, summary, or explanation for why we should care about the tweet.
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Feb 9, 2023 00:59
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Electric Wrigglies posted:For me I don't see F16s pushing the needle much compared to Mig29's they already have. They will still be stuck flying low to avoid ground based AA and then trying to fire AMRAAMS up at far away and high Russian jets that are lobbing long range missiles at them. For that they will need to maintain well kept and supplied airfields within long range missile range of Russian forces versus rough and ready strips that Migs work from. They currently only have SARH and IR missiles for their MiG29:s. F-16 with AMRAAMs would be a massive qualitative improvement. Djarum posted:The bombers that are launching them are based near Moscow but they aren't launching them from there. They are getting within BVR range of the border for launch for stuff that is hitting Kiev and targets in Western Ukraine due to the range of the cruise missiles. No, they aren't. The primary cruise missiles they are using have enough range to hit anywhere in Ukraine from Moscow, the launching aircraft just take off from their airfields, climb in a wide circle on top of the airfield to their launch altitudes, and then land.
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Feb 9, 2023 01:06
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cinci zoo sniper posted:FT has a handly little piece summarizing what the EU MIC is up to at the moment. https://www.ft.com/content/ea5b48b1-61e6-4c91-8778-4cc2edaff0ca I'm really curious what's going on with Russia's MIC and ammo stockpiles. On one hand they still have access to a lot of Soviet stockpiles, however poorly maintained - on the other hand, ever since artillery started becoming a major battlefield presence it's been kind of a truism that almost nobody is ever prepared in peacetime for just how many shells they need in a real war, and it would be strange if Russia of all nations was the exception to that, particularly since by all accounts they were expecting a short war anyways. If both the US and EU MIC are having issues spooling up, how badly would Russia be affected as well, particularly under sanctions? Unfortunately accurate information on that is, I imagine, somewhat of a rare commodity these days even within Russia itself.
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Feb 9, 2023 04:42
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Tomn posted:I'm really curious what's going on with Russia's MIC and ammo stockpiles. On one hand they still have access to a lot of Soviet stockpiles, however poorly maintained - on the other hand, ever since artillery started becoming a major battlefield presence it's been kind of a truism that almost nobody is ever prepared in peacetime for just how many shells they need in a real war, and it would be strange if Russia of all nations was the exception to that, particularly since by all accounts they were expecting a short war anyways. If both the US and EU MIC are having issues spooling up, how badly would Russia be affected as well, particularly under sanctions? Anecdotally, they seem to be cranking quite a bit of new stuff these days, particularly in the areas of drones and anti-drone EW, e.g., here's some Russian soldier helpfully posting to Facebook vids of his unit operating a bunch of bespoke, man-portable gear, including a tracking radar that keeps tracking through jammer fire. https://censor.net/ru/video_news/3397796/voyiska_rf_nachali_primenyat_protiv_ukrainskih_dronov_novye_sredstva_reb_videofotoreportaj On the artillery front though, z-bloggers were putting on blast the low equipment levels of artillery units not that long ago, so I would expect the overall equipment and ammunition levels to be suboptimal. The fancier post-February gear, in my assumptions at least, is mostly a consequence of various actors working to currying favours with MoD or Putin, rather than a show of the systemic strength of their MIC.
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Feb 9, 2023 04:53
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yurtcradled posted:Well this is something... Seymour Hersh apparently created a substack a few hours ago and posted an essay titled How America Took Out the Nordstream. How do you remote control an underwater detonator?
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Feb 9, 2023 05:38
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Crow Buddy posted:How do you remote control an underwater detonator? According to this you drop a buoy that goes beep beep zap beep boop through low frequency waves and when the c4 charges hear that instead of beep zap zap beep boop or other random whale noise, it blows itself up after a predetermined wait. No explanation of what happens when the sound gets mixed up in the noises of random whale farts though. Or what happens when two random oil tankers accidently clunk their way into the right noise. killer_robot fucked around with this message at 06:02 on Feb 9, 2023 |
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Feb 9, 2023 05:53
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I'm not going to try to justify the insanity that is that essay, but presumably you could use the same ancient tech that's in depth charges to blow up a non-submarine.
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Feb 9, 2023 06:38
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TheRat posted:I'm not going to try to justify the insanity that is that essay, but presumably you could use the same ancient tech that's in depth charges to blow up a non-submarine. Depth charges explode at depths set on them prior to being dropped/fired, not by remote control
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Feb 9, 2023 07:21
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NTRabbit posted:Depth charges explode at depths set on them prior to being dropped/fired, not by remote control Sure, and the pipelines aren't moving around all too much are they? I'm not giving this as an example of what the insane person is suggesting, I'm just saying it wouldn't be all too difficult to blow up remotely?
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Feb 9, 2023 07:43
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TheRat posted:Sure, and the pipelines aren't moving around all too much are they? I'm not giving this as an example of what the insane person is suggesting, I'm just saying it wouldn't be all too difficult to blow up remotely? Yeah but when it explodes the ship that dropped it won't be more than a few hundred metres away, it's hardly a conspiracy you can get away with
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Feb 9, 2023 07:54
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023quote:Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week, and Russian sources are widely reporting that conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna.[1] Geolocated combat footage has confirmed Russian gains in the Dvorichne area northwest of Svatove.[2] Russian military command additionally appears to have fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as ISW previously reported.[3] Elements of several regiments of the 144th and 3rd Motor Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) and a regiment of the 90th Tank Division (Central Military District), supported by elements of the 76th Airborne Division and unspecified Southern Military District elements, are conducting offensive operations along the entire Svatove-Kreminna line and are reportedly advancing against Ukrainian defenses.[4] The renewed offensive has apparently already started, with (presumably mostly mobilized) actual troops instead of LNR/DPR forces or wagner. Given that russia has hundreds of thousands of troops ready to deploy, and still has plenty of armored vehicles and artillery left, this offensive could be very dangerous for ukraine.
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Feb 9, 2023 08:13
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killer_robot posted:According to this you drop a buoy that goes beep beep zap beep boop through low frequency waves and when the c4 charges hear that instead of beep zap zap beep boop or other random whale noise, it blows itself up after a predetermined wait. No explanation of what happens when the sound gets mixed up in the noises of random whale farts though. Or what happens when two random oil tankers accidently clunk their way into the right noise. That's... unlikely. The code can be any length and at some point it becomes virtually impossible to accidentally stumble on the correct combination in a finite time. Like with radio mines, the bigger issue is if something produces blocking noise on the frequencies the receiver works on. So a passing tanker might drown the signal with its noise, but only momentarily. Anyway, radio mines are interesting!
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Feb 9, 2023 08:25
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big shtick energy posted:https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023 I'm hoping that Russia has significantly sped up its tempo on this to try to claim territory and dig in before Bradleys/Marders and Leopards arrive, and that means they're going to be rushing in half-cocked and disorganised/unsupplied. Might be too much to hope for, but let's see. A video from welt.de on Tuesday says that the first 60 of the Bradleys could be there in 1-2 weeks (is this accurate? seems a bit slow somehow). I get the impression that those could be incredibly helpful on both defensive and offensive actions, so long as they're not going head to head with T-80s or such e: hm the ship containing the bradleys made it to belgium on the 7th and left last night, i guess 1-2 weeks is just a broad estimate for moving that much cargo across the continent boofhead fucked around with this message at 08:47 on Feb 9, 2023 |
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Feb 9, 2023 08:41
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NTRabbit posted:Yeah but when it explodes the ship that dropped it won't be more than a few hundred metres away, it's hardly a conspiracy you can get away with You should read the article if you are going to critique it.
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Feb 9, 2023 08:47
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Tuna-Fish posted:They currently only have SARH and IR missiles for their MiG29:s. F-16 with AMRAAMs would be a massive qualitative improvement. I know that which is why I mentioned AMRAAMs in my post. But they are still ~180 km range missiles (if fired at altitude) that will be trying to hit targets well over 100km away that are >10 km higher in altitude because an F16 trying to get close to Russian air force jets need to stay low to stay below ground missiles. The Russians are reportedly staying back far enough that they can't use their own R77 missiles for lack of range. Instead lobbing anti bomber missiles at low flying jets they think aren't watching and mostly missing. So yes useful but not that useful and so the F16 would be an expensive to operate and fragile bomb truck - not that great for Ukraine right now on its own and more impactful in the political meaning behind European jets being supplied to Ukraine. Ukraine already has precision fires capability to a depth of 50 km or so over the battlefield with ground based systems. I had a think about it and if not F35, then F 18G Growlers are probably the planes for Ukraine. Buddy refueling, robust airframe and bucket loads of E/W to have an impact while loitering far off the front lines. Can still target cruise missiles if wild weaseling or is not the highest priority but I think the E/W that a few growlers would bring to the battlefield would be huge. Probably not mentioned because Europe doesn't have any.
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Feb 9, 2023 09:17
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big shtick energy posted:https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023 Dangerous for Russia too, they still don't have air superiority and the supply lines are still within HIMARS range. This new offensive has significantly less resources compared to a year ago, while Ukraine has significantly more and is more entrenched defensively. They've had a whole year to dig in, plus western supplies and training. I think the offensive will cause some serious damage for sure, but the Russians won't achieve much at all.
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Feb 9, 2023 09:31
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yurtcradled posted:Well this is something... Seymour Hersh apparently created a substack a few hours ago and posted an essay titled How America Took Out the Nordstream. I've read this and the suspicious things about the article begin already with things that you can question by just looking up Wikipedia or news sources and the way certain things are written. For instance: it claims that Jens Stoltenberg is both the supcom of NATO when he is in fact the Secretary General (also, there's two supcoms in NATO) and that he's an avowed anti-communist when he's the former leader and elected PM of the Norwegian Worker's Party (Arbeiderpartiet), now while they're not the best, I've not heard of him being some anti-communist hardliner. Then there's some other details - he refers to the Norwegian Secret Service, that's not what it is called, it is the Norwegian Intelligence Service And then you have paragraphs like these: quote:And then: Washington had second thoughts. The bombs would still be planted during BALTOPS, but the White House worried that a two-day window for their detonation would be too close to the end of the exercise, and it would be obvious that America had been involved. You also have a sections relying on this being what Biden has been referring to when talking about stopping Nord Stream: quote:Several of those involved in planning the pipeline mission were dismayed by what they viewed as indirect references to the attack. quote:“It was like putting an atomic bomb on the ground in Tokyo and telling the Japanese that we are going to detonate it,” the source said. “The plan was for the options to be executed post invasion and not advertised publicly. Biden simply didn’t get it or ignored it.” quote:The plan to blow up Nord Stream 1 and 2 was suddenly downgraded from a covert operation requiring that Congress be informed to one that was deemed as a highly classified intelligence operation with U.S. military support. Under the law, the source explained, “There was no longer a legal requirement to report the operation to Congress. All they had to do now is just do it—but it still had to be secret. The Russians have superlative surveillance of the Baltic Sea.” Also, this paragraph is absurd as well: quote:The administration’s attention once again was focused on Nord Stream. As long as Europe remained dependent on the pipelines for cheap natural gas, Washington was afraid that countries like Germany would be reluctant to supply Ukraine with the money and weapons it needed to defeat Russia. Finally, this particular conspiracy theory falls flat in another regard: how on earth do they expect this not to leak? Maybe they're hinging their bets on it sounding too absurd, but we're now talking about an operation involving quite a number of people in two different countries sabotaging the infrastructure of an ally one of them is currently buying tanks from. If this turns out to be true, then it'll be an absolutely staggering blow to all of NATO and whoever signed off on this did a worse risk-reward evaluation than Putin when he decided to send in the troops back in February last year. TZer0 fucked around with this message at 11:14 on Feb 9, 2023 |
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Feb 9, 2023 11:08
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After meeting Sunak first, and Scholz with Macron in Paris second yesterday, Zelenskyy is in Brussels for the big EU summit. According to FT, a major asking point for this trip it to squeeze out of Europe any potential remaining supply or manufacturing capacity of artillery shells in Soviet calibres. We will have to see how far he gets though, because this is an immigration summit, and the heads of member states will unlikely put that business off. https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2023/en/ Estonia’s big annual intelligence report is out. TL;DR for this edition is that Putin is keen to play for time, as he works on his homework to “re-Sovietize” Russia.
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Feb 9, 2023 11:17
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Svaha posted:The signal activated a timer. I was critiquing "why not use depth charge tech" with the exact reason why it wouldn't work. Depth charges aren't detonated by signal, they're detonated by reaching a depth preset by a sailor with a special wrench based on a pistol that fills with water at a known rate, less than a minute after dropping.
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Feb 9, 2023 11:33
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It would be interesting to check the entire unsabotaged second NS2 string for unexploded charges. While the absence of them doesn't prove anything, their presence would be in Russia's favor.
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Feb 9, 2023 11:40
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I think it took a month for the nordstream company to release a mild public statement after the explosions You would think an unexpected event like this where their 10 billion pipeline got blown up would make them and their shareholders flip their poo poo and call for investigations and justice bigthink
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Feb 9, 2023 11:49
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TZer0 posted:If this turns out to be true, then it'll be an absolutely staggering blow to all of NATO and whoever signed off on this did a worse risk-reward evaluation than Putin when he decided to send in the troops back in February last year. if it turns out to be true, it'll be the first actual news that hersh has broken since my lai. i wouldn't put a lot of money in it, especially given how vehemently hersh has denied actually proven russian acts, like novichok. anyhow, content: Czech media is claiming that SpaceX is disabling starlink access for the Ukrainian military. Any word on this from non-idnes sources? https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/online-valka-na-ukrajine-nejnovejsi-zpravy-idnes-cz.B1007797 Also apparently we're repairing vehicles from the Ukrainian side now, and sending (potentially) heavy arms, pending a parliamentary vote today.
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Feb 9, 2023 11:52
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NoiseAnnoys posted:Czech media is claiming that SpaceX is disabling starlink access for the Ukrainian military. Any word on this from non-idnes sources? https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-curbed-ukraines-use-starlink-internet-drones-company-president-2023-02-09/ Curious what the details are and when this went into effect, blinding Ukraine's uav scouts right before a big projected Russian offensive would be a wild move on Elon's part
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Feb 9, 2023 11:54
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Flavahbeast posted:https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-curbed-ukraines-use-starlink-internet-drones-company-president-2023-02-09/ i mean, Elon sucks unbelievable amounts of rear end so, it's par for the course. drat, though. i was hoping it was just the usual iDnes histrionics.
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Feb 9, 2023 11:57
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As much as I hate to defend anything to do with Musk, knowingly allowing your devices to be directly incorporated as part of a weapon system could be a big headache, due to issues of dual-use technology controls/restrictions. You've either got to fully embrace it and accept the opportunities+costs or work to stop it. Willfully turning a blind eye is just asking for trouble down the road.
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Feb 9, 2023 12:06
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Pablo Bluth posted:As much as I hate to defend anything to do with Musk, knowingly allowing your devices to be directly incorporated as part of a weapon system could be a big headache, due to issues of dual-use technology controls/restrictions. You've either got to fully embrace it and accept the opportunities+costs or work to stop it. Willfully turning a blind eye is just asking for trouble down the road. I would be suprised if that was really the issue. I hope its just that they restrict the system to Ukrainian territory, thats how I read the oast part of the article about "offensive operations". If its not that, then Ill also buy into the "Musk is a shady rear end" thing.
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Feb 9, 2023 12:37
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NoiseAnnoys posted:if it turns out to be true, it'll be the first actual news that hersh has broken since my lai. i wouldn't put a lot of money in it, especially given how vehemently hersh has denied actually proven russian acts, like novichok. Wow, I didn't realize that was the same guy. He looks like he's gone pretty goddamn nutty in the past couple decades, Noam Chomsky style, or maybe always was and his broken clock happened to be right twice a day back in the 1970s when he was up and coming, Elon Musk style. I see he's also a bin Laden truther, which is so off the wall I guess it makes it pretty easy to discount anything else he claims. "This famous international terrorist who had a sophisticated network, money, training, and supplies and decades of proven track records in effective international attacks and who claimed responsibility for the attack could not have possibly carried out an international act of terrorism!"
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Feb 9, 2023 12:40
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Hersh's claims on the Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack should have ended up with him in the journalism dustbin forever, but I guess there's always going to be an audience for his poorly sourced articles. This is what he claims is a transcript between two real human beings about the Khan Sheikhoun attacks published by Welt: https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165905618/We-got-a-fuckin-problem.html quote:This conversation was provided to Seymour Hersh. It is betweeen a security adviser and an active US American soldier on duty on a key operational base about the events in Khan Sheikhoun. We have made abbreviations: American soldier (AS) and Security Advisor (SA). WELT AM SONNTAG is aware of the location of the deployment. For security reasons, certain details of military operations have been omitted. It's also worth noting that none of the parties to the conflict, including Russia and Syria, no investigative body, and really nobody else presented a scenario that supported Hersh's claims.
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Feb 9, 2023 12:48
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This reads exactly like the infamous Nick and Mike recording about Lukashenko. Amazing.
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Feb 9, 2023 13:08
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Hersh's story was Russia provided Syria with a guided bomb to drop on a Jihadi HQ in Khan Sheikhoun, which had a bunch of cleaning chemicals in the basement which ended up poisoning people. Seeing the remains of a Syrian unguided M4000 chemical bomb in a crater in a road riddled with Sarin was the source of the Sarin, and the supposed Jihadi HQ was never identified (even when I asked him for the location so I could check on satellite imagery to see if it had been bombed), it was obviously bullshit from the outset. It's also worth noting that Russia and Syria made completely different claims about what happened as well, and you'd expect they'd know about what happened if Hersh's story was true. It's not even the first time he's done that with Syrian chemical attacks, his work on the August 2013 Sarin attacks in Damascus were also pure fantasy.
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Feb 9, 2023 13:41
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Brown Moses posted:Hersh's claims on the Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack should have ended up with him in the journalism dustbin forever, but I guess there's always going to be an audience for his poorly sourced articles. This is what he claims is a transcript between two real human beings about the Khan Sheikhoun attacks published by Welt: It is really funny how much of that 'transcript' is "Man, those Russians are so awesome and cool we are helpless before them!" Also, even if it was a real transcript, what does it even prove? A couple of random dudes don't think it was chemical weapons?
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Feb 9, 2023 14:01
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Lol yeah that transcript almost reads like a parody, especially the very obviously ESL bit at the start. The fact that Hersh presented that as genuine suggests that at the very least he isn't doing enough to confirm his sources are genuine.
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Feb 9, 2023 14:12
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:I would be suprised if that was really the issue. Starlink not working past arbitrary lines (I e. Lines defined without UA input by an unknown entity) has been a known problem for months, it gets amplified whenever Ukraine makes an advance and suddenly their troops end up in territory under blackout. Given that, despite his gloating about providing starlink for free, musk has to be paid for his services by both UA fundraisers and US government, and that he's been systematically suppressing pro-Ukraine voices on Twitter, it's clear that he's only offering starlink for the profit motive, and only to the extent he's forced to by his MIC handlers.
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Feb 9, 2023 14:16
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