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Blinken is saying that China might start arming Russia's war machine in Ukraine, which would certainly go a long way toward solving any materiel troubles they're having. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/19/china-may-be-on-brink-of-supplying-arms-to-russia-says-blinken posted:“The concern that we have now is, based on information we have, that they’re considering providing lethal support,” Blinken told CBS’s Face the Nation shortly after he met with Wang. “And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.” Luigi's Discount Porn Bin fucked around with this message at 11:23 on Feb 19, 2023 |
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Feb 19, 2023 09:26
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Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Blinken is saying that China might start arming Russia's war machine in Ukraine, which would certainly go alone way toward solving any materiel troubles they're having. Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Blinken is saying that China might start arming Russia's war machine in Ukraine, which would certainly go alone way toward solving any materiel troubles they're having. Yeah, I went to bed reading that the west might be ‘cautiously optimistic’, about china recognizing the war and proposing a peace plan. And this morning they’re considering providing lethal support to Russia. And might already be providing intel to wagner.
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Feb 19, 2023 09:57
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Kraftwerk posted:Todays hero Ukrainians are tomorrows welfare queens Way ahead of you: https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/merz-sozialtourismus-101.html Plug into deepl if your handle isn't indicative of your command of German 
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Feb 19, 2023 10:42
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Article showcasing some of the photography and art from the last year https://www.ft.com/content/2cb05b02-a9dc-497c-b926-51bb291e7d3b Dmitri from war translated with some interesting information about the Russians not paying soldiers https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627248785570033666?t=hrM5n2TyydI9ZWrTYZQXew&s=19
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Feb 19, 2023 11:45
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https://twitter.com/niubi/status/1626981249683271681 not sure what the Chinese MFA endgame here is ahead of the Munich security conference
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Feb 19, 2023 11:52
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/niubi/status/1626981249683271681 Today is the last day of the conference.
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Feb 19, 2023 11:55
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you're right, Wang Yi's little tour of Europe was this past week, not next. The Chinese peace plan proposal will be next week. the intended overall direction is still a mystery unless the Chinese MFA expects that the peace plan is DOA in European capitals and should now just be a play to Brazil and such ronya fucked around with this message at 12:02 on Feb 19, 2023 |
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Feb 19, 2023 12:00
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Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Blinken is saying that China might start arming Russia's war machine in Ukraine, which would certainly go a long way toward solving any materiel troubles they're having. I wonder to what degree their support will be? If the US is holding back munitions in order to be prepared for a direct war with China, then I imagine China will also hold back. Or maybe China thinks it can divert more of the west's resources away from itself and toward Russia?
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Feb 19, 2023 12:31
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Everyone loves Kofman threads so here is a new one https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1627309427907854336 In full for those who don't want to engage with Elon's decaying platform: quote:The RU offensive consists of about 5-6 axes of attack focused on the Donbas. Rather than a major push along one part of the front, it is instead a series of distributed battles running north-south from Luhansk, to Bakhmut, and southern Donetsk. Russian forces are attacking at Vuhledar, Marinka, Adviivka, Bakhmut (and Bilohorivka), Kreminna -> Lyman, with attempts to advance near Kupyansk. The offensive began in the last week of January with a Russian assault on Vuhledar.
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Feb 19, 2023 15:51
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New Perun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94bqk8cB9iQ
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Feb 19, 2023 16:06
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cgeq posted:I wonder to what degree their support will be? If the US is holding back munitions in order to be prepared for a direct war with China, then I imagine China will also hold back. Or maybe China thinks it can divert more of the west's resources away from itself and toward Russia? What arms could China easily provide to Russia? They moved away from Russian designs in favor of their own weapons decades ago, so the situation is the same as Ukraine getting advanced western weapons, the supply chain and need to train for both operation and maintenance. It looks like they have two different calibers for artillery, so simply sending ammo won't work. This puts aside how corrupt and incompetent the Russian armed forces are. If they get shiny new Chinese gear, much of it will vanish, sold off for vodka and khanka or simply broken. Furthermore, the US and EU will immediately start talking about sanctions on Chinese goods if they try supporting the invasion... it's hard to see what they could gain that would be balanced out by the stigma of supporting the Russian pariah state.
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Feb 19, 2023 19:40
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Wheeljack posted:What arms could China easily provide to Russia? They moved away from Russian designs in favor of their own weapons decades ago, so the situation is the same as Ukraine getting advanced western weapons, the supply chain and need to train for both operation and maintenance. It looks like they have two different calibers for artillery, so simply sending ammo won't work. This puts aside how corrupt and incompetent the Russian armed forces are. If they get shiny new Chinese gear, much of it will vanish, sold off for vodka and khanka or simply broken. Unless the PLA has disposed of hundreds upon hundreds of Type 66 and D-30 howitzers lately, I imagine they've produced and stockpiled quite a bit of ammo for them. There must be thousands of D-30s floating around, many owned by countries that would rather buy from Norinco than the Russians.
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Feb 19, 2023 20:21
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Regardless of consequences or whether it's a good idea, there are a couple points solely about the viability of the Chinese supplying equipment to Russia. 1) They have a whole poo poo load of Soviet and license built gear that would be compatible with what the Russian army uses. Current modernization efforts are to get away from a gigantic second-rate conscript force to a smaller, high-tech force. But that's an ongoing effort so they still have a lot of older equipment. This includes thousands of D-20 and D-30 license built towed artillery pieces that are compatible with the Russian army's towed artillery and shoot the same ammunition. Some of their mechanized forces still use self-propelled 122mm artillery which is based off of license built D-30s, as well as Grad and Smerch based MLRS. Air defense includes 9K330 systems. So there's plenty of compatible and functionally identical gear that could be offered. 2) As has been shown by Western support for Ukraine, it's not really necessary to provide cross-compatible gear. If the Chinese wanted to provide Type 96 tanks to the Russians, the Russians could certainly use them to their advantage.
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Feb 19, 2023 20:24
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I would imagine it's China seeing how far they can go - if they get to degrade US military power while getting paid, it seems like a pretty good deal. The economic sanctions would be mutually destructive, so they could be betting that the West can't afford to be too harsh in the current economic climate.
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Feb 19, 2023 22:19
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WarpedLichen posted:I would imagine it's China seeing how far they can go - if they get to degrade US military power while getting paid, it seems like a pretty good deal. It would cost the US money but I don't see how it would degrade US military power. I would suppose rebuilding Ukraine and keeping it afloat while Russia continues to try to weaken it indefinitely would cost significantly more and over time fatigue US/EU willingness to engage in other similar ventures. If Russia defeated Ukraine it would probably turn Ukraine into a sort of martyr and allow the US to focus entirely on Taiwan.
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Feb 19, 2023 22:53
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Kraftwerk posted:Snip Well thats quite a lot of odd conclusions. There is no way in hell that a conquest of 1 km of territory can be sold as victory. Russia is hurting. Their people might not care that they are hurting but nevertheless russia is losing a shitton of everything quite rapidly. Aviation incidents are increasing, armed PTSD ridden soldiers causing incidents at home are only a few but it's the beginning of flood. Record budget deficit coinciding with loss of oil and gas production. Even their propaganda programs fallen out of top 10 that russians watch. There are no good news for russia.
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Feb 20, 2023 00:55
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Owling Howl posted:It would cost the US money but I don't see how it would degrade US military power. If anything a lengthened conflict plausibly provides the economic basis for an expansion in the US MIC
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Feb 20, 2023 02:17
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Owling Howl posted:It would cost the US money but I don't see how it would degrade US military power. Maybe not, I was thinking money being diverted and a shortage of some equipment like stingers or javelins.
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Feb 20, 2023 02:20
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If it becomes clear that China has begun to ship weapons and ammo to Russia, I hope the PLA will enjoy fighting the Ukrainian volunteers that will be sent to Taiwan when that shitshow finally kicks off. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 20, 2023 02:47
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Nuclear Tourist posted:If it becomes clear that China has begun to ship weapons and ammo to Russia, I hope the PLA will enjoy fighting the Ukrainian volunteers that will be sent to Taiwan when that shitshow finally kicks off.
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Feb 20, 2023 02:58
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WarpedLichen posted:Maybe not, I was thinking money being diverted and a shortage of some equipment like stingers or javelins.
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Feb 20, 2023 03:01
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Cicero posted:It's weird to me how we mostly stopped making stingers without a replacement. The pre-2022 rate was apparently like 40 a month, which is obviously very little for a handheld one-shot weapon. Ramping that up apparently required redesigning parts because the parts had gone out of production, because, well, they old. Preparing for the last war is common historically, and there weren’t a lot of planes to shoot down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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Feb 20, 2023 03:04
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WarpedLichen posted:I would imagine it's China seeing how far they can go - if they get to degrade US military power while getting paid, it seems like a pretty good deal. They may also be betting that eventually popular support for a lengthy expensive war will wane in Western democracies. This is not a problem faced in authoritarian countries, the leader can simply keep going without fear of losing an election. (Yes, in the extreme the leader faces a revolution but that requires much more public anger than simply losing an election.) It is why a prolonged grinding conflict with no end in sight benefits Russia even if they're not making clear battlefield gains. If we're talking a 10 year conflict, it is believable that US public support will eventually disappear. This is how the Taliban retook Afghanistan, after all.
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Feb 20, 2023 03:14
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Cicero posted:It's weird to me how we mostly stopped making stingers without a replacement. The pre-2022 rate was apparently like 40 a month, which is obviously very little for a handheld one-shot weapon. Ramping that up apparently required redesigning parts because the parts had gone out of production, because, well, they old. Two of the marquee weapons of US aid to Ukraine, Stinger and Javelin, the US just doesn't have as much need for as most other countries. Anti-armor and anti-air would just be handled by US air power in any direct conflict for the US. Not saying US have no use for these weapons, just relatively less and there was a lot of other things to pay for during the last wars.
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Feb 20, 2023 04:07
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huhmz posted:Two of the marquee weapons of US aid to Ukraine, Stinger and Javelin, the US just doesn't have as much need for as most other countries. Anti-armor and anti-air would just be handled by US air power in any direct conflict for the US. Not saying US have no use for these weapons, just relatively less and there was a lot of other things to pay for during the last wars.
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Feb 20, 2023 04:19
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Would it not be a humiliating admission of weakness and their junior partner status for Russia to accept Chinese military aid/vehicles? I don't really know what the mindset is over relations with China there and maybe I'm also assuming that Russians are more racist against the Chinese than they are in reality.
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Feb 20, 2023 06:01
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Mauser posted:Would it not be a humiliating admission of weakness and their junior partner status for Russia to accept Chinese military aid/vehicles? I don't really know what the mindset is over relations with China there and maybe I'm also assuming that Russians are more racist against the Chinese than they are in reality. The US says they've been asking for Military aid from China for almost a year now: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/14/us-official-russia-seeking-military-aid-from-china So apparently not. 
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Feb 20, 2023 06:05
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Perhaps it is humiliating but not as humiliating as outright losing the war. Seems like a calculation they might make.
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Feb 20, 2023 06:43
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Mauser posted:Would it not be a humiliating admission of weakness and their junior partner status for Russia to accept Chinese military aid/vehicles? I don't really know what the mindset is over relations with China there and maybe I'm also assuming that Russians are more racist against the Chinese than they are in reality. Never underestimate racism. There's always more and it's always worse.
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Feb 20, 2023 06:56
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Mauser posted:Would it not be a humiliating admission of weakness and their junior partner status for Russia to accept Chinese military aid/vehicles? I don't really know what the mindset is over relations with China there and maybe I'm also assuming that Russians are more racist against the Chinese than they are in reality. theyre alrrady taking drones from iran so i think theyll take whatever they can get
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Feb 20, 2023 08:15
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Mauser posted:Would it not be a humiliating admission of weakness and their junior partner status for Russia to accept Chinese military aid/vehicles? I don't really know what the mindset is over relations with China there and maybe I'm also assuming that Russians are more racist against the Chinese than they are in reality. Probably, but maybe they think they can just deny it publicly. Seems like the sort of thing they'd think they can get away with.
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Feb 20, 2023 08:52
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LRADIKAL posted:I feel like at this point, if the west let Ukraine's economy fail, it would be a huge amounts of deaths and misery as a losing war turns into a bloody occupation. Jeez, is it better for RUSSIA to lose this war? yuck. It was always better for Russia to lose this war.
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Feb 20, 2023 09:02
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mrfart posted:Yeah, I went to bed reading that the west might be ‘cautiously optimistic’, about china recognizing the war and proposing a peace plan. And this morning they’re considering providing lethal support to Russia. And might already be providing intel to wagner. As Russia has red lines about supporting Ukraine, so does the US and others have red lines about China and others supporting Russia. If China wants to help Russia without starting WWIII, it will have to slowly boil the frog and incrementally increase support like has happened for Ukraine. Simmerly, useful material support would be an insignificant economic cost (maybe even from stock already paid for) to China so it is all about the long-term international relationships and what China wants to achieve in aid of its own interests. China has generally worked to the philosophy that countries should stay out of each other's business (i.e. Russo-Ukraine is an issue that should be settled between themselves without foreign arms / support being supplied to either side) so it would be a bit of a change if they did that. Not that this stopped China intervening on Pol Pot's behalf against Vietnam a few decades ago.
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Feb 20, 2023 09:42
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Wheeljack posted:What arms could China easily provide to Russia? They moved away from Russian designs in favor of their own weapons decades ago, so the situation is the same as Ukraine getting advanced western weapons, the supply chain and need to train for both operation and maintenance. It looks like they have two different calibers for artillery, so simply sending ammo won't work. This puts aside how corrupt and incompetent the Russian armed forces are. If they get shiny new Chinese gear, much of it will vanish, sold off for vodka and khanka or simply broken. is it stated that they clearly intend to provide (or at least considering providing) clearly singly-use munitions? i hadn't read much into the story but basic scan says Blinken made a statement about escalating to providing lethal versus non-lethal support, but that could mean anything without specifics. assuming china was continuing to export, idk, foodstuffs to russia, sure, whatever, that's probably non-lethal support to the russian economy and war effort beyond what the US is currently providing. had china previously been withholding stuff more in the dual use area of say, fancy electronics or whatever? there was somewhat lolworthy coverage of russia cannibalizing breast pumps for microcontrollers not that long ago, so if they were that desperate i'd assume they weren't getting as many regular shipments of exquisitely arranged silicon and whatnot from the place most of the world normally gets that poo poo (yknow, china). needing to rip chips out of appliances suggests they were starved for basic-ish electronics, not just the galaxy brain chips you can only get out of countries with extremely advanced semiconductor fabs (not china, and generally not likely to not currently have sanctioned the hell out of russia) absent specifics (are there articles that indicate specific systems or components? or just Blinken's "china is maybe doing a thing we advise china to not do a thing" statement so far?) i read that as "china has agreed to large exports of dual-use poo poo russia needs that china had laying around anyway, and they weren't before" or, escalating further, "china has contracted russian-spec chip fabs that aren't TSMC grade but well above what russia can produce domestically at scale" russia can build more artillery shells; they have plenty of metal and military industrial base, and i would be very ??? if they're buying that or even end-stage fully-assembled arms from china. buying chinese military airframes or even rifles seems a bit out there (china does not need to sell that poo poo to have a robust economy, they can continue selling literally everything else they export), but buying "eh, good enough" chinese chips to replace poo poo they were previously contracting out to <various countries that have sanctioned them> from a country that both has a semiconductor industry and strong interest in ramping it up to compete in the big leagues seems very much like something you'd do if you were scrounging parts out of loving breast pumps 6 months ago, and also something the US state department would be very "please do not" about tl;dr if you wanna do some war profiteering, china chip stonks aren't a bad bet atm
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Feb 20, 2023 10:10
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Imports from China could also be used to fill some supply chain problems. For example, an artillery shell does little by itself - you need a fuse for it to blow up at the target. Modern fuses are not just mechanical contact fuses like 100 years ago but proximity fuses that burst in the air to increase spread of shrapnel into trenches. So if there is a production mismatch, let's say for every 100 shells made they get only 75 fuses, there is soon going to be big depots full of shells that wait for someone at the fuse factory to speed things up. But China has plenty of spare capacity just for this kind of thing, and fuses (or even just some components inside them) are super easy to transport even in air cargo compared to the shells themselves.
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Feb 20, 2023 10:28
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Biden has turned up in Kyiv, expecting some other announcements today https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1627607543483703296?t=xKPH7oKbh3a76t1JvtsHNA&s=19
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Feb 20, 2023 10:57
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Ukrainian media are reporting government spokespeople totally not suggesting that Biden is about to visit, including a subordinate security lockdown in Kyiv, including the street the U.S. embassy is on. https://censor.net/ru/news/3400871/v_mid_nameknuli_na_vajnyyi_vizit_glavnyh_partnerov_v_kiev_sohranim_intrigu_nadeemsya_syurpriz_udastsya Edit: Come on man, of all “edit: beaten” options you can’t do me like this in broad daylight 
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Feb 20, 2023 10:59
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That'll ruffle some feathers in the Kremlin.
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Feb 20, 2023 11:23
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It did zone posted:https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1627609123079483393
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Feb 20, 2023 11:42
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Imagine being some U.S. Secret Service private, or whatever is the grunt rank in the org, on this one.
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Feb 20, 2023 11:44
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