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Given some of the pictures I saw I would say "was a cooperative gardening compound" is more accurate. Looked more like a flattened scorch mark than buildings.
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Feb 21, 2023 22:56
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bird food bathtub posted:Given some of the pictures I saw I would say "was a cooperative gardening compound" is more accurate. Looked more like a flattened scorch mark than buildings. Yeah, I think it's fair to expect something closer to this: cinci zoo sniper posted:Remember those artillery scorch mark satellite photos from Vuhledar?
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Feb 21, 2023 23:00
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though I'm not entirely clear on who was calling artillery on it and when. That general area in those days seems to have also had some thermobaric artillery action.
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, if I were a betting man, I would be at ease about bidding on “Ukraine shall control Bakhmut until February 25 Moscow morning news”. That said, Scrap that. Looking at fresher maps: 28h ago https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1627726833549725696 4h ago https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1628096764560674816 The situation has deteriorated, meaningfully, compared to that February 18 map I posted with annotations.  Roads in pink are big enough to allow meaningful volume of supplies. With the northern M03 highway being under Russian control, this is, if not encirclement, by-the-hour attrition type of fighting, and we might see them prepare to get out through the smaller rural roads, or the southern T0504 highway if it's operable enough. I'd still bet on them holding it until February 25 out of spite, but the situation appears ugly in some rather specific terms now. At least they should be able to run a reasonably orderly evacuation of everything considered – closing the city to non-military presence on February 13 was anticipated back then already to be evacuation prep in part.
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Feb 21, 2023 23:38
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Right, so for the triple before I'm off to bed, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/boeing-to-provide-ukraine-long-range-version-of-gps-guided-bombquote:The Pentagon hasn’t formally acknowledged it’s sending the modified version of Boeing’s Joint Direct Attack Munition, saying only it would send “precision aerial munitions” as part of a $1.85 billion package announced December 21. But two people familiar with the matter confirmed the weapon is the Extended-Range Jdam, known as the Jdam-ER. They asked not to be identified because the detail hasn’t been announced. Those seem to glide for up to like 70 km, and can be slapped onto bombs up to like 1000 kg. In seriously unrelated news, the Z-grams are all screaming about Russian air defence working overtime in Donbas, invoking GLSDB. Nothing more concrete than “air defenece noises” that I've seen yet, though. Edit: I mean, I've seen a couple of those, but  https://twitter.com/danvan71/status/1628136836424994820 Also, this seems to be the sort of thing that gets used against Kherson by Russian soldiers, which should have as much to deal with precision fire as it seems to have. Basically, firing Grad missiles one by one out of a pipe. https://twitter.com/danvan71/status/1628152606282448899 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:34 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 00:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Those seem to glide for up to like 70 km, JDAM-ER glides 70km when the launching aircraft is going supersonic near the edge of space. No-one can do that in or near Ukraine unless they want to be hit by a heavy AA missile, so practical range would be a lot shorter. Still, they can probably get close enough to the frontlines by flying very low that they can toss bomb JDAMs and then get back down before they get killed.
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Feb 22, 2023 00:45
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The situation has deteriorated, meaningfully, compared to that February 18 map I posted with annotations. Thanks for updating, I was at work and wasn't able to chime in with the current maps. One thing I will add is that it has been heavily implied that T0504 and M03 have not been used as primary supply routes for some time now. The last leg of T0504 into Bakhmut is on low ground and clearly visible from Russian positions on high ground S and SE of Ivanivske and the road has been under observation. The main route being run into Bakhmut, for however many guys left there, runs from Chasiv Yar to Khoromove. It is paved with 2 lanes that runs right into Bakhmut and they have been running that route for weeks now (maybe it just isn't enough and hence the slow deterioration?). Part of the reason why regulars were sent in to counter-attack SW of Ivanivske was to push back the Russians from getting any closer to Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian side of T0504 has a steep bluff that shields the last paved road from direct observation. The topography also means that the fall of Paraskoviivka or even Berkhivka, while unfortunate doesn't really affect that route either with direct line of sight issues. That said, holding on for a few days just to spite Putin and his anniversary seems suspect though. If something unforeseen occurs there could be a lot of guys stuck inside Bakhmut. Evacuating through T0504 won't be an option anymore with the Russians having blown up the bridge just west of Ivanivske (I think you had a twitter photo of that). So any remaining heavy equipment must go back up that last road.
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Feb 22, 2023 00:55
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MikeC posted:That said, holding on for a few days just to spite Putin and his anniversary seems suspect though. The impression I've gotten is that the Bakhmut attack needs a pause but they're trying to force it for the anniversary. That would make this defense more worthwhile if the attacks have become less effective. I mostly read Ukrainian sources so maybe this is some wishcasting.
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Feb 22, 2023 03:31
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This whole episode is going to be vaguely remembered in Chinese pop consciousness as "the US intimidates a helpless Europe into cooperating with its invasion of Ukraine, in which Russia heroically stands alone in defiance" https://twitter.com/ThisIsWenhao/status/1628116648648491008 every war is superimposed onto Belgrade embassy bombing...
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Feb 22, 2023 03:37
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I've been thinking about how artillery barrels have been wearing out due to excess use. I think most of this is stress on the barrel. I haven't really read anything about solving this problem other than just sending in more artillery. Are there any sort of exotic "barrel cooling" systems designed for artillery?
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Feb 22, 2023 13:25
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ShadowHawk posted:I've been thinking about how artillery barrels have been wearing out due to excess use. I think most of this is stress on the barrel. I haven't really read anything about solving this problem other than just sending in more artillery. Rapid-fire naval guns use such things, but for field artillery, it's generally considered to be more sensible to just have more barrels firing, let them cool more between shots and then replace them when they wear out.
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Feb 22, 2023 13:29
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Cooling is an acute issue. Barrels wearing out is literally that, the inside of the barrel wears down and ends up being wider than the shells they're firing.
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Feb 22, 2023 13:35
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MikeC posted:Evacuating through T0504 won't be an option anymore with the Russians having blown up the bridge just west of Ivanivske (I think you had a twitter photo of that). So any remaining heavy equipment must go back up that last road. Oh, you're right, I hadn't connected the bridge to the road. While it's worth noting then that there were reports that those were Ukrainians blowing it up, the retreat story then indeed does appear to be constrained to a rural road network between the two highways.
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Feb 22, 2023 13:47
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Question about sanctions: is Atomic Heart, a video game, not affected because video games aren’t covered by sanctions, or is the fig leaf relocation of the developer’s headquarters to Cyprus enough to circumvent them? Cause at the end of the day, the money ends up with the same people, no?
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Feb 22, 2023 14:37
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Rinkles posted:Question about sanctions: is Atomic Heart, a video game, not affected because video games aren’t covered by sanctions, or is the fig leaf relocation of the developer’s headquarters to Cyprus enough to circumvent them? Cause at the end of the day, the money ends up with the same people, no? https://www.eurogamer.net/questions-remain-over-atomic-heart-developers-russian-origins
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Feb 22, 2023 14:50
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Rinkles posted:Question about sanctions: is Atomic Heart, a video game, not affected because video games aren’t covered by sanctions, or is the fig leaf relocation of the developer’s headquarters to Cyprus enough to circumvent them? Cause at the end of the day, the money ends up with the same people, no? Their publishers collect the money, and they have 3 - VK for CIS, some random shop for Asia, and Focus Entertainment for the rest of the world. Focus is a French company, and therefore out of scope of any possible sanctions, which I don’t think there are even, for video games. That said, “just” making headquarters a Cyprus tax resident would’ve been enough, if the game was self-published, since the business taxes on their activity would’ve been then paid into the coffers of the Cypriot government.
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Feb 22, 2023 14:54
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I saw a Eurogamer article that touched upon this. https://www.eurogamer.net/questions-remain-over-atomic-heart-developers-russian-origins It seems like the developers are in a position where they can't say anything critical about their home country, but may or may not be big supporters of the war. I think they are also downplaying their connection to Russia precisely because they don't want to get delisted from stores over sanction fears.
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Feb 22, 2023 14:54
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The eurogamer article is pretty good, but no one responded to their queries, and it doesn’t address the sanctions question unless I missed it. cinci zoo sniper posted:Their publishers collect the money, and they have 3 - VK for CIS, some random shop for Asia, and Focus Entertainment for the rest of the world. Focus is a French company, and therefore out of scope of any possible sanctions, which I don’t think there are even, for video games. If video games aren’t covered, then it makes sense. Otherwise evading sanctions seems kinda easy.
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Feb 22, 2023 15:07
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Rinkles posted:The eurogamer article is pretty good, but no one responded to their queries, and it doesn’t address the sanctions question unless I missed it. You might not be thinking of sanctions in the right context. The sanctions are generally intended to stop the Russian government from getting money, not random Russian citizens. So, moving a business outside of Russia would deprive the Russian government of funding, and could actually be considered the sanctions working as intended. If, however, the developer then used that as a way to funnel money to the Russian government in some way, they could be personally sanctioned as well and (for example) have their assets frozen / property seized.
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Feb 22, 2023 15:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That said, “just” making headquarters a Cyprus tax resident would’ve been enough, if the game was self-published, since the business taxes on their activity would’ve been then paid into the coffers of the Cypriot government. Is that true? I thought the sanctions didn't just target the company's place of residence itself, but also Russian UBO's (ultimate beneficiary owners). Or would that only apply if the UBOs were oligarchs who are themselves on the sanctions list?
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Feb 22, 2023 15:52
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Johnny Nomad posted:You might not be thinking of sanctions in the right context. The sanctions are generally intended to stop the Russian government from getting money, not random Russian citizens. So, moving a business outside of Russia would deprive the Russian government of funding, and could actually be considered the sanctions working as intended. If, however, the developer then used that as a way to funnel money to the Russian government in some way, they could be personally sanctioned as well and (for example) have their assets frozen / property seized. Yes thanks. And the studio’s main investor might be a quasi-front, but it’s not sanctioned.
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Feb 22, 2023 15:54
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Rinkles posted:The eurogamer article is pretty good, but no one responded to their queries, and it doesn’t address the sanctions question unless I missed it.
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Feb 22, 2023 15:56
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Deltasquid posted:Is that true? I thought the sanctions didn't just target the company's place of residence itself, but also Russian UBO's (ultimate beneficiary owners). Or would that only apply if the UBOs were oligarchs who are themselves on the sanctions list? It only applies to oligarch UBOs and sanctioned sectors of economy/industries or transactions. However, in practice an effect of sanctions is that holding Russian nationality puts you on an automatic shitlist for any compliance manager in any financial institution, effectively interfering with all operations and activities, legitimate or not and whether or not you're a sanctioned individual. Basically banks see a yellow flag and treat it as a red flag because they don't want to risk it being an actual red flag
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Feb 22, 2023 15:57
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an interesting pair of results: https://twitter.com/fbermingham/status/1628315133725343746 https://twitter.com/corajamine/status/1628364782578311170 basically a proxy for territorial war as a legitimate-to-domestic-audiences method of politics and statebuilding
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Feb 22, 2023 16:02
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https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1627957152408125440?t=Qav2HcKyaNpv7aCgkYSeDg&s=19 Despite the warning it's a fairly short thread.
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Feb 22, 2023 16:04
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ronya posted:an interesting pair of results: JFC India 
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Feb 22, 2023 16:11
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I am absolutely loving the name Rail Force One.
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Feb 22, 2023 16:29
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https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/02/why-cant-russia-figure-out-how-to-win-in-ukraine.htmlquote:The reason I’ve talked about this war already being a long war — it’s already too late to have a short war; it’s just a debate of how long it will be — is so folks don’t suffer from short-termism, don’t become overly comfortable with Ukrainian success in the fall, understand that the war is far from won, and have a sober-minded assessment of what it will take to support Ukraine over the course of this year and the next, rather than jumping from month to month and looking for silver bullets A Kofman interview. Nothing new or exciting if you are a close observer of the war but good read nonetheless. I love the 'tanks are tanks' line 
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Feb 22, 2023 16:54
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SaTaMaS posted:JFC India I'm kinda curios now what their media looks like.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:06
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i'm a bit confused what Indians thought the Russian military was like before. Perhaps a small group of glorified ice cream vans?
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Feb 22, 2023 17:16
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:i'm a bit confused what Indians thought the Russian military was like before. Perhaps a small group of glorified ice cream vans? If you fully believe the Russian propaganda about this being a full-on war with NATO, Russia holding its own against all of NATO (with occasional incremental gains!) would be pretty impressive.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:25
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Burns posted:I am absolutely loving the name Rail Force One. Also this 
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Feb 22, 2023 17:34
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Burns posted:I am absolutely loving the name Rail Force One. It sounds like a Chuck Tingle book.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:39
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Deltasquid posted:Is that true? I thought the sanctions didn't just target the company's place of residence itself, but also Russian UBO's (ultimate beneficiary owners). Or would that only apply if the UBOs were oligarchs who are themselves on the sanctions list? Fair enough, UBOs are a wrinkle, uncommon [to be in a meaningfully different taxation/sanctions regime] statistically, but an existent one anyway. The rules there, as nutri_void says, will be 1) don't provide financial services to UBOs you can't identify with 100% certainty; 2) sanctioned UBOs are a problem; 3) don't attract attention of trigger-happy regulators or politicians. I say that sanctioned UBOs are a problem in that it doesn't automatically mean that the company is a subject of the same sanctions, but the precise answer there comes from a legal team you'd best never have to afford.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:44
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ronya posted:an interesting pair of results: The first option should read "even if it means Ukraine giving control of areas to Russia and more Ukrainians being killed or displaced under Russian occupation" Without this, the first option seems like the only one without violence.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:58
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mrfart posted:I'm kinda curios now what their media looks like. Is the India Today thread still active? It's wild. Russia has also invested heavily in farming bot/shill accounts that spam Indian and South African twitter to stoke historical resentment towards Europe (and the US).  Of course our neighbourhood chuds are also fed on a steady stream of Russian spam:  Whatever makes people hate each other, the Russian bot farms are dishing it out. Divide and conquer.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Fair enough, UBOs are a wrinkle, uncommon [to be in a meaningfully different taxation/sanctions regime] statistically, but an existent one anyway. The rules there, as nutri_void says, will be 1) don't provide financial services to UBOs you can't identify with 100% certainty; 2) sanctioned UBOs are a problem; 3) don't attract attention of trigger-happy regulators or politicians. I say that sanctioned UBOs are a problem in that it doesn't automatically mean that the company is a subject of the same sanctions, but the precise answer there comes from a legal team you'd best never have to afford. The catch-22 nature of the above why we just stopped doing business with anyone in Russia. The entire country wasn’t worth enough in Jan 22 to even justify trying to be discriminating.
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Feb 22, 2023 18:03
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The flip side is that you occasionally see articles from investigative journalists about some Russian national-owned company in like the Netherlands or something just blatantly shipping dual-use components to sanctioned parts of Russian militarily-industrial complex, which makes me wonder how much enforcement there really is.
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Feb 22, 2023 18:08
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OddObserver posted:The flip side is that you occasionally see articles from investigative journalists about some Russian national-owned company in like the Netherlands or something just blatantly shipping dual-use components to sanctioned parts of Russian militarily-industrial complex, which makes me wonder how much enforcement there really is. The executive branch of the EU (aka “Brussels”) doesn't enforce sanctions, and has no agency to enforce sanctions. The implementation of these has historically been in the member states' purview. That's all slated to change later this week, however, meaning that the EU will get its own version of the U.S. Treasury bad news department, rumoured to be under AMLA's umbrella. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 18:13
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mrfart posted:I'm kinda curios now what their media looks like. If you think American and British media are particularly bad, and that The Sun is a rag and Breitbart is the bottom of the barrel in journalism standards, boy howdy will you have an adventure if you ever start digging into the media of other countries. Turkish and Indian have been about the worst of the worst of countries with significant media presence where I have spent some time reading their local news, and they've both gotten a lot worse recently as they've cracked down very harshly on any newspaper that doesn't spout the party line. Many of them are basically Breitbart levels of one-sided pseudo-journalism filled about 50/50 with biased portrayal of facts vs. complete fabrications. Google translate does a good job with Turkish, with India I've only read sites that write in English. Of course some countries have even worse media presence, like Algeria or Syria, but they don't pretend to have journalists or news either.
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Feb 22, 2023 18:53
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https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1628435340758339584?t=xhYtlZ-hxmdiOnKZDxFs7A&s=19
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