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they need to hire some former isis fighters to improve their vbied setup
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Feb 22, 2023 19:05
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MT-LB continues to show it's flexibility as a platform.
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Feb 22, 2023 19:07
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1628435340758339584?t=xhYtlZ-hxmdiOnKZDxFs7A&s=19 "Surrender to our troops and we'll treat you well", they said. "Bring weapons with you and we'll pay you well." Well, it turns out... Meanwhile Hungary now says they will vote on the ratification of Finland and Sweden at the beginning of March. And Turkey has resumed negotiations with Finnish and Swedish envoys despite previous objections to Kurd-supporting, Koran-burning Swedes. Finnish FM speculates that the earthquakes changed Turkey's mood.
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Feb 22, 2023 19:07
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Nenonen posted:And Turkey has resumed negotiations with Finnish and Swedish envoys despite previous objections to Kurd-supporting, Koran-burning Swedes. Finnish FM speculates that the earthquakes changed Turkey's mood. Do you have a source for this? This is surprisingly good news. I thought Sweden was dead in the water as far as NATO membership went after the Koran burning thing.
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Feb 22, 2023 19:12
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buglord posted:Do you have a source for this? This is surprisingly good news. I thought Sweden was dead in the water as far as NATO membership went after the Koran burning thing. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/turkey-opens-up-to-swedens-nato-application-after-us-meeting/ F16s, as a few posts earlier in the thread have speculated, may have been a factor. That said, I definitely don't exclude that Turkey would like some extracurricular humanitarian assistance from the EU, which might be difficult to come by while beefing with Sweden – what is there to say about the time when Sweden holds the rotating EU presidency. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 19:21
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buglord posted:Do you have a source for this? This is surprisingly good news. I thought Sweden was dead in the water as far as NATO membership went after the Koran burning thing. Just from Finnish media https://www.is.fi/politiikka/art-2000009411558.html quote:TURKEY'S Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu announced on Monday that the country is ready for new negotiations with Sweden and Finland. Mr Cavusoglu made the announcement at a press conference with his US counterpart, Mr Blinken.
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Feb 22, 2023 19:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/turkey-opens-up-to-swedens-nato-application-after-us-meeting/ Coincidently Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Johan Forssell visits Türkiye in connection with the earthquake disaster https://swedish-presidency.consiliu...quake-disaster/
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Feb 22, 2023 20:08
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ronya posted:an interesting pair of results: This poll has crazy built-in bias.
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Feb 22, 2023 20:18
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Kallikaa posted:Coincidently Erdogan’s poll numbers must not be looking too good after that quake and the fact that he’s on camera bragging about having pretty much waived all construction zoning earthquake safety laws in the hard hit areas in an attempt to make a lot of housing cheap and quick back in 2019.
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Feb 22, 2023 20:18
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Interesting thread suggesting that the recent loud complaints from Wagner about them getting starved for ammunition isn't due to some vendetta against the group from the establishment but something even more damning - it's the same situation everywhere, even in the regular army https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628477870497562625
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Feb 22, 2023 21:30
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Chalks posted:Interesting thread suggesting that the recent loud complaints from Wagner about them getting starved for ammunition isn't due to some vendetta against the group from the establishment but even more damning - it's the same situation everywhere While I'm not rushing to conclusions on the thread alone, there has been a noted shift in that Russia is no longer 24/7 blasting artillery across all the hundreds of kilometres of the frontline, and hasn't in some time. Keeping the bangs... uhhh... banging is not a sunny meadow for Russia either. I've seen some more specific complaints about the powder charges for artillery shells being tight, but not much to specifically corroborate that (also, that's not the most notable part of this Twitter thread).
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Feb 22, 2023 21:34
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my pop history addled brain immediately goes back to similar severe russian shortage of shells on the eastern front in the second half of 1915. history rhyming and all that
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Feb 22, 2023 21:42
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:my pop history addled brain immediately goes back to similar severe russian shortage of shells on the eastern front in the second half of 1915. history rhyming and all that I wouldn't say it's severe per se – “pragmatic” is probably the best characterization of the current mood of their fire control, if perhaps availing a notch too much benefit of doubt to their decision-making.
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Feb 22, 2023 21:45
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:my pop history addled brain immediately goes back to similar severe russian shortage of shells on the eastern front in the second half of 1915. history rhyming and all that Everyone had a shell shortage in that war
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Feb 22, 2023 21:45
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VostokProgram posted:Everyone had a shell shortage in that war Just like this war! I wouldn't get too excited about shll drought, these aren't the first images of dire Russian stocks, and so far these incidents haven't been indicative of an acute systemic issue
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Feb 22, 2023 21:45
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steinrokkan posted:Just like this war! There might be something to the analysis that was offered in that latest LazerPig video, that although Russia probably doesn't have an acute shell crisis, what they are having difficulties with is getting ammunition to the front lines. They are dependent on rail transport for their logistics, but due to the danger of Himars and other lange range weaponry, they now have to stop to unload much further from the front than before and travel by truck (and seemingly BMP and other APCs and artillery tractors presssed into logistics duty) to depots which still are fairly far from the front lines, courtesy of that Himars threat, then they have to get to the unit. This actually gets fairly difficult.
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Feb 22, 2023 21:53
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And if GLSDB is actually a thing Ukraine has now, as some seem to believe based on the Mariupol explosions, then they may have to unload ammo from trains even further back.
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Feb 22, 2023 22:26
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Russia can't outright run out but they can be forced to either stop shelling to save up for major offensives or keep up a low rumble but be unable to ramp it up for offensives.
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Feb 22, 2023 22:36
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Randarkman posted:There might be something to the analysis that was offered in that latest LazerPig video, that although Russia probably doesn't have an acute shell crisis, what they are having difficulties with is getting ammunition to the front lines. They are dependent on rail transport for their logistics, but due to the danger of Himars and other lange range weaponry, they now have to stop to unload much further from the front than before and travel by truck (and seemingly BMP and other APCs and artillery tractors presssed into logistics duty) to depots which still are fairly far from the front lines, courtesy of that Himars threat, then they have to get to the unit. This actually gets fairly difficult. And the guns need to keep on moving as well. This and the ferrying of shells means that you use up a lot more fuel. But Himars threat also forces you to place fuel depots further back, increasing fuel consumption even more as fuel trucks have to drive longer distances from depots to units. A vicious cycle.
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Feb 22, 2023 22:55
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Cicero posted:And if GLSDB is actually a thing Ukraine has now, as some seem to believe based on the Mariupol explosions, then they may have to unload ammo from trains even further back. On that note though, there still seems to be no visual evidence whatsoever from Mariupol', to confirm anything landing.
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Feb 22, 2023 23:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:On that note though, there still seems to be no visual evidence whatsoever from Mariupol', to confirm anything landing. How would you even notice there?
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Feb 22, 2023 23:02
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OddObserver posted:How would you even notice there? You know what I mean. 
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Feb 22, 2023 23:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The executive branch of the EU (aka “Brussels”) doesn't enforce sanctions, and has no agency to enforce sanctions. The implementation of these has historically been in the member states' purview. That's all slated to change later this week, however, meaning that the EU will get its own version of the U.S. Treasury bad news department, rumoured to be under AMLA's umbrella. Is that change as big a deal as it sounds like it is? I'm totally ignorant of this, but I'm imagining the difference in sanction enforcement between an EU agency and a Hungarian one would be huge. Also, what's AMLA?
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Feb 22, 2023 23:26
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EasilyConfused posted:Is that change as big a deal as it sounds like it is? I'm totally ignorant of this, but I'm imagining the difference in sanction enforcement between an EU agency and a Hungarian one would be huge. The difference could be big, but it's quite contingent on the legal fine print, and the negotiations have been heated for the upcoming changes. For instance, Hungary wanted to remove sanctions from 9 oligarchs as recently as a month ago (as of today that number is down to 0, initially being watered down to 4, and then to 2). Also, if the enforcer is an agency with some other priorities, then you get all the public financing kung fu to hash out. However, if we get it right – and on the basis of the 2017 European Public Prosecutor's Office we know that we can get these things right – then it could be an enormous deal. The U.S. equivalent would be OFAC of the Department of the Treasury, and is positively terrifying – when they came calling for Latvia, our government near-instantaneously killed the largest private bank in the Baltics, audited every financial institution in Latvia that could do an international wire transfer, and then killed the whole industry of not too scrupulously providing financial services to foreigners by rewriting the relevant financial laws and regulations from grounds up to a remarkably harsh standard. The time span for that long rear end sentence – 2 IRL years, lol. I was working in finance around the time poo poo went down and it was extremely funny behind the scenes, in an out-of-scope institution, to witness EU MONEYVAL and US OFAC both scream at our parliament and then the Financial and Capital Market Commission just loving raid all the banks with special forces locking down buildings at 11am when you're trying to buy a burger at a gas station across the street. AMLA stands for Anti-Money Laundering Authority, which is a work-in-progress EU agency doing you won't believe what. There have been persitent rumours through the years that they might get the job of enforcing sanctions violations, most recently just this past fortnight in the context of the 10th sanctions package. Preliminarily scheduled for the 24th of February, the package is expected to ratchet up enforcement of the existing sanctions in particular. For instance, here's Bloomberg reporting it. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Feb 23, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 23:58
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:i'm a bit confused what Indians thought the Russian military was like before. Perhaps a small group of glorified ice cream vans? well, Russian cities are not the ones being shelled to the ground and their people not being randomly disappeared into torture prisons by a foreign occupier. being able to inflict this on others, and not have this inflicted on your co-ethnics, can be interpreted as a sign of strength. So war is costly and painful and protracted - but so what; a lot of geopolitical conflicts are; an advantage so overwhelming as to suggest pure air power campaigns or Desert Storm style walkovers (that anything less is a sign of weakness) is limited to the countries that really enjoy these advantages. an Indian commentatariat long mournful about the loss of its chief economic and security partner (the Soviet Union) has long also reiterated narratives on post-Soviet suffering and the assorted humiliations afflicted on Serbian and Russian minorities in redrawn borders which is not to say that India is not cognizant that its present security neighbourhood inevitably draws it into the US sphere, but it can still be really resentful about that evolution, just as France was during the Cold War
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Feb 23, 2023 03:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I was working in finance around the time poo poo went down and it was extremely funny behind the scenes, in an out-of-scope institution, to witness EU MONEYVAL and US OFAC both scream at our parliament and then the Financial and Capital Market Commission just loving raid all the banks with special forces locking down buildings at 11am when you're trying to buy a burger at a gas station across the street. Would love to hear more about this and what the resulting institutional panic was like.
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Feb 23, 2023 03:58
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Interesting headline I saw today: "Humiliated Putin forced to pay Russians to attend pro-war event in Moscow stadium" (Not familiar with this site, so maybe take with a grain of salt.) ronya posted:well, Russian cities are not the ones being shelled to the ground and their people not being randomly disappeared into torture prisons by a foreign occupier. Although not being shelled to the ground, some Russian towns near the Ukrainian border have certainly been affected.
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Feb 23, 2023 04:02
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Small White Dragon posted:Interesting headline I saw today: People being forced to attend events (or sometimes being paid) is not unusual for Russia, but it's hardly a humiliation for Putin --- he is not a fan of any genuine rallies, even those that agree with his actions, since people who care are a potential problem.
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Feb 23, 2023 04:06
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What do you all make of the rumors flying around Twitter of possible Russian moves toward Moldova? More distraction or are they really gonna go for it?
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Feb 23, 2023 04:44
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Delthalaz posted:What do you all make of the rumors flying around Twitter of possible Russian moves toward Moldova? More distraction or are they really gonna go for it? It would be a rather difficult maneuver, and I don't know where they would even get men to do it. Any forces would have to go through either Ukraine or Romania, and the garrison in Transnistria is probably too small and busy.
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Feb 23, 2023 04:53
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Delthalaz posted:What do you all make of the rumors flying around Twitter of possible Russian moves toward Moldova? More distraction or are they really gonna go for it? Russia doesn't have any way to get to Moldova and the force there is pretty small. Ukraine has already said they'll help out if Transnitria does anything. So IMO it's just talk and nothing is going to happen.
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Feb 23, 2023 04:55
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Deteriorata posted:Russia doesn't have any way to get to Moldova and the force there is pretty small. Ukraine has already said they'll help out if Transnitria does anything. Fly it in transports from Crimea?
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Feb 23, 2023 05:03
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Charlz Guybon posted:Fly it in transports from Crimea? Ukraine has pretty good AA in the area. Not many would get through.
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Feb 23, 2023 05:04
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Deteriorata posted:Ukraine has pretty good AA in the area. Not many would get through. They'd be pretty far out in the Black Sea, wouldn't they? Would AA from Odessa be able to reach them?
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Feb 23, 2023 05:14
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Charlz Guybon posted:They'd be pretty far out in the Black Sea, wouldn't they? Would AA from Odessa be able to reach them? Ukraine extends well to the southwest of Odessa, all the way to the Danube delta south of Moldova. They would have to overfly Ukrainian territory to get to Moldova. They may not have a lot of AA there at the moment, but they would get it there in a hurry if there was any indication that Russia was preparing anything.
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Feb 23, 2023 05:18
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Realistically they probably already shuffled poo poo that a way. Russia making noises can in part be a ploy to force Ukraine to redeploy troops/resources to that area because it's still somewhat of a possible front.
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Feb 23, 2023 05:21
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Delthalaz posted:What do you all make of the rumors flying around Twitter of possible Russian moves toward Moldova? More distraction or are they really gonna go for it? Last summer there was a suggestion that the Russian troops in Transnistria were maybe getting ready to do *something*. Whether that was going to push into Moldova, open an Western front in Ukraine or just make enough noise to keep some Ukrainian troops away from the front will probably never be known. If Ukraine wins this war, I suspect that Ukraine will not tolerate that enclaves existence on their border.
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Feb 23, 2023 05:25
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Crow Buddy posted:Last summer there was a suggestion that the Russian troops in Transnistria were maybe getting ready to do *something*. Whether that was going to push into Moldova, open an Western front in Ukraine or just make enough noise to keep some Ukrainian troops away from the front will probably never be known. The failure of the West to shore up Moldova against Russia is embarrassing tbqh in general.
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Feb 23, 2023 05:28
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goddamnit polisci academics can you find a design person or at least read a book on doing good graphics. you can't just stuff a spreadsheet into gephi, click "do network analysis", snapshot the entire drat thing at max zoom out, and call it a day. the actual paper does sorta go into the details but lol wtf at that figure. it's a directed graph? yeah, sorta, but HALF THE LINES ARE SO SMALL YOU CAN'T SEE THE DIRECTION INDICATOR. AND DESPITE THIS YOU ONLY HAVE LIKE 3 LINE SIZES FOR A FAIRLY SPARSE GRAPH. you got like "unreadably tiny, small, medium, gigantic" and that's it, with most in the tiny category. node cardinality size (representing in-degree per the figure box) is is similiarly lol size. it's mostly tiny (but graphically not much smaller than the biggest poo poo) nodes with NO loving LABELS. WHAT ARE THESE PAGES? IS THEIR IN DEGREE THREE? THREE HUNDRED? WHAT ARE MAX AND MIN AND MEAN AND WHATNOT? COULD YOU AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME COMPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL STATS BARS (seriously this is the only figure. there are two tiny tables. that's it. the rest is text) this is like a textbook example of "how not to do visual media to represent numerical information". like maybe the underlying methods are sound and the giant wall of text has lots of useful insight but idk, goddamnit academics read a tufte book or smth GhostofJohnMuir posted:my pop history addled brain immediately goes back to similar severe russian shortage of shells on the eastern front in the second half of 1915. history rhyming and all that only if we get a psychological horror palace intrigue redux of Agoniya in like... 60 years i guess. with, idk, medvedev filling in for rasputin
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Feb 23, 2023 05:39
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Small White Dragon posted:Interesting headline I saw today: The Express is sub-Daily Mail tabloid trash that usually spends its time running stories about how awful Meghan Markle is because she's black, and generally has an editorial position roughly to the right of Goebbels. Sometimes they run stories about ghosts or whatever--for example: https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/1730992/cannock-chase-ghost-black-eyed-girl-horror Like, stopped clocks and all that, but I'd take anything they say with more like a boulder of salt. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 07:45 on Feb 23, 2023 |
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Feb 23, 2023 06:19
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