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https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-considers-release-of-intelligence-on-chinas-potential-arms-transfer-to-russia-8e353933 Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence that shows China is planning to supply Russia with military supplies, as opposed to the dual-use supplies they already provide. Seems to be a big escalation from China, and I don't see how this makes them more popular in Europe. It seems to me that it would torpedo their attempt to entice European states away from US influence, for very little gain.
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Feb 23, 2023 06:26
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Small White Dragon posted:Interesting headline I saw today: Following on, the way to understand the Daily Express is that the knight figure on the cover has the Cross of St George on its shield, an emblem that in many contexts is roughly equivalent to the stars and bars in the UK- hardcore right wing nationalism with strong racial overtones. And they felt the need to also have a sword on it, and have it borne by a knight. That's their editorial stance.
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Feb 23, 2023 06:32
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Crow Buddy posted:Last summer there was a suggestion that the Russian troops in Transnistria were maybe getting ready to do *something*. Whether that was going to push into Moldova, open an Western front in Ukraine or just make enough noise to keep some Ukrainian troops away from the front will probably never be known. The Moldova/Transnistria stuff is so weird and out there. How many Russian troops can there even be in Transnistria right now? It seems like a bad time for either side to be stirring poo poo in that area while the war is going on, I can almost buy the conspiracy angle that the Moldovan government is stirring poo poo as a distraction. Have a feeling nothing is going to happen there.
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Feb 23, 2023 06:39
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WarpedLichen posted:The Moldova/Transnistria stuff is so weird and out there. How many Russian troops can there even be in Transnistria right now? It seems like a bad time for either side to be stirring poo poo in that area while the war is going on, I can almost buy the conspiracy angle that the Moldovan government is stirring poo poo as a distraction. There's about 1000 Russian soldiers plus 5000 locals there that are, at best, partially mechanised with the small numbers of 60s and 70s vintage AFVs and APCs in the area. It's not enough. NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Feb 23, 2023 |
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Feb 23, 2023 07:20
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Natty Ninefingers posted:Would love to hear more about this and what the resulting institutional panic was like. Minor correction, it was FinCEN, rather than OFAC, blasting from the US side, which is another (quasi-overlapping) Treasury department. I was shielded from the worst of the panic, since FKTK was primary charging against non-resident banking, and my firm was not providing banking services. Everyone who was I'm pretty sure was drinking themselves to death even more so than they usually do, and switched to communicating with colleagues exclusively in writing for the whole 2018. Also, we had someone assassinate the insolvency manager for ABLV, but that was after the peak drama in the industry. We used to have a fairly large non-resident banking sector, relatively speaking – foreign deposits in the participating banks were larger than our annual GDP. And it was simply killed. Banks were all going “Hold on, but this kills my business model?!” and the government would just stare back and say “Yes”. Now, this may sound a bit harsh, but despite the lousy-ish work ethic here overall, we can do things quite well when we put our mind to it. When we did put our mind to doing money laundering well, we may have not only helped Russian oligarchs, but also Iran, and maybe even North Korea shopping around for their nuclear weapons programme.  In addition to our homeboy ABLV, we had local branches, with people working on groups' affairs, of all the Scandinavian banks caught doing similar poo poo, e.g., Danske or Swedbank.  So, the grey here is “third-party non-EU countries”, graphs depicting the nationwide structure of deposits. While the drop may seem severe even for 4 years, the reality of it is even funnier.  Blue bar is non-resident deposits, in thousands of euros, with X axis being quarters of the years. poo poo went down on February 13, 2018 (so, I 2018) when FinCEN issued notification of concern against ABLV, and by December 31, 2018 (same year, not seen on graph) the deposits had shrunk from EUR 8.1bn (December 31, 2017) to EUR 3.3bn. And miracles of speed and productivity didn't end there. As of February 2020, so, two years on the mark: quote:Latvia is the first “Moneyval” member state that has successfully implemented all FATF recommendations. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 11:54 on Feb 23, 2023 |
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Feb 23, 2023 08:51
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Crow Buddy posted:If Ukraine wins this war, I suspect that Ukraine will not tolerate that enclaves existence on their border. How do you foresee that playing out? I highly doubt Ukraine is going to take military action against a part of Moldova.
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Feb 23, 2023 09:23
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Moldova could of course invite the help of Ukraine and count on financial support from the EU in reintegrating the enclave. But that's a) far in the future for now, b) a pretty aggressive move from the EU side if it doesn't distance itself from it, and c) very Clancy. In any case, I have serious doubts that the situation will be resolved while hostilities in Ukraine are still ongoing.
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Feb 23, 2023 09:44
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How is that going to do anything but increase the Cold War mentality? https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1628283224941072386
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Feb 23, 2023 10:29
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On the continued note of the quality of sanctions enforcement, here's something fresh from FT: quote:A sanctions-hit Russian warlord who has been accused of human rights abuses around the world was able to pass UK anti-money laundering checks by submitting a utility bill in the name of his 81-year-old mother. Charlz Guybon posted:How is that going to do anything but increase the Cold War mentality? This is an accusation that the U.S. is unduly giving them a cold (war) shoulder. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Feb 23, 2023 |
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Feb 23, 2023 10:55
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Finland is sending 3 Leo 2s to Ukraine. Apparently they are equipped with mine clearing systems. https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1628707565902200832?cxt=HHwWgIC8ydy5qpotAAAA  E: tweet changed bad_fmr fucked around with this message at 12:00 on Feb 23, 2023 |
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Feb 23, 2023 11:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:... Hold on hold on, wait what? Some high-ranking banker was literally assassinated? Why? Who? How? 
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Feb 23, 2023 11:50
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I was wondering, don't the Russians have spy satellites just the same as the Americans? It surprises me they never figured out when Ukraine is driving stuff like AFVs across the polish border and just launching missiles at it after the handover. How have they been able to hide that stuff?
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Feb 23, 2023 15:18
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Kraftwerk posted:I was wondering, don't the Russians have spy satellites just the same as the Americans? It surprises me they never figured out when Ukraine is driving stuff like AFVs across the polish border and just launching missiles at it after the handover. How have they been able to hide that stuff? If you check this site, you can see exactly what’s passing over Ukraine right now and who it belongs to. https://heavens-above.com There’s no hiding literally anything in space. There’s currently a Russian satellite passing over central Ukraine (Cosmos 2248), but it seems to be a radio-interception satellite rather than imagery. Naturally it’ll be hard to say exactly what it is/does, anyone that launches satellites has launches that they’re enormously tight-lipped about (see: any NRO satellite launch on the US side). Not an exact answer to your question, but this kind of thing would’ve been the domain of state-level intel services 30 years ago. Now it’s a bunch of nerds publishing their work for everyone to see.
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Feb 23, 2023 15:33
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Kraftwerk posted:I was wondering, don't the Russians have spy satellites just the same as the Americans? It surprises me they never figured out when Ukraine is driving stuff like AFVs across the polish border and just launching missiles at it after the handover. How have they been able to hide that stuff? Noone just drives AFVs across the border. You either put them on railcarts or trucks. And there's a lot of traffic going every way, it would probably be way easier to just post some friendly spotters along the way. For something else: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/polish-police-assisted-in-demining-the-de-occupied-territories-of-ukraine/ quote:For five months, Polish sappers were involved in demining the de-occupied territory of Ukraine. I wasn't expecting bolded part. Might be weird phrasing, but seems like sending armed teams is a level up from just sappers.
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Feb 23, 2023 15:36
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alex314 posted:For something else: I commend them, but I wonder if it was better to keep this secret till after the war.
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Feb 23, 2023 15:46
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Kraftwerk posted:I was wondering, don't the Russians have spy satellites just the same as the Americans? It surprises me they never figured out when Ukraine is driving stuff like AFVs across the polish border and just launching missiles at it after the handover. How have they been able to hide that stuff? Hitting moving targets in real-time at very long ranges is very difficult. It requires organization, training, and capabilities to be integrated intentionally, and then it requires practice. Think about it this way. Some person in whatever bureau that's responsible for Cosmos 1234 sees imagery in real-time that some target is at a location. Who do they call? Who decides the priority of that target versus the thousands of other targets out there? If it's prioritized, which kinetic asset do you use to target it? Is that asset available right now? If not, how quickly can it be made ready? Can you get precise targeting location to your kinetic asset? What if the target is moving? Even if you use a kinetic asset, how do you know it did anything? Who is responsible for determining that? What do you do with the resulting assessment, and how long did it take to get that assessment? You get the idea.
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Feb 23, 2023 16:02
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Kraftwerk posted:I was wondering, don't the Russians have spy satellites just the same as the Americans? It surprises me they never figured out when Ukraine is driving stuff like AFVs across the polish border and just launching missiles at it after the handover. How have they been able to hide that stuff? Missiles are not going to be able to find a fast moving target based on sat photos. You'd have to send planes, which would be a suicide mission, and it'd probably fail anyway given the difficulties the Russian air force has had with precision strikes. Instead they've been targeting transport networks, but missiles flying long distances over enemy territory tend to get shot down, and those that don't poke relatively small holes in roads/rails that can be patched, if they hit anything at all.
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Feb 23, 2023 16:10
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Rinkles posted:I commend them, but I wonder if it was better to keep this secret till after the war. What's russia going to do about it? Attack poland? Pretty sure Poland isn't afraid of that; probably more like "come at me brah"
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Feb 23, 2023 16:16
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Ynglaur posted:Hitting moving targets in real-time at very long ranges is very difficult. It requires organization, training, and capabilities to be integrated intentionally, and then it requires practice. Also the sat is moving and capturing a lot of area, so it takes time for people to actually figure out what they are seeing.
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Feb 23, 2023 16:16
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Discendo Vox posted:Following on, the way to understand the Daily Express is that the knight figure on the cover has the Cross of St George on its shield, an emblem that in many contexts is roughly equivalent to the stars and bars in the UK- hardcore right wing nationalism with strong racial overtones. And they felt the need to also have a sword on it, and have it borne by a knight. That's their editorial stance. The Express is a deeply lovely paper but the figure is a crusader because a long time ago it was supposed to have investigative journalists who would make it their personal crusade to get to the bottom of some story or other. I think the average reader is in their 80s now though.
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Feb 23, 2023 16:22
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alex314 posted:Noone just drives AFVs across the border. You either put them on railcarts or trucks. And there's a lot of traffic going every way, it would probably be way easier to just post some friendly spotters along the way. Polish sappers and their guards in Ukraine. That's not a military intervention, but it feels like a few steps away from it. They left it unmentioned, but did they engage in combat? For them to brazenly admit it at this time, that's something.
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Feb 23, 2023 17:10
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I failed to catch this earlier, but the Economist published the second part of a series of diary accounts from an anonymous UA soldier. Very humanizing account that's worth the read with great photography to boot. Depictions of violence and gore.Part 1 Part 2
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Feb 23, 2023 17:13
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https://twitter.com/NATO/status/1628687961477750790 Can West stop acting like this war is another MCU movie? (I mean picture 9 in particular)
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Feb 23, 2023 17:44
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Szarrukin posted:https://twitter.com/NATO/status/1628687961477750790 isn't that a quote from a AFU soldier?
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Feb 23, 2023 17:53
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enigma74 posted:Polish sappers and their guards in Ukraine. That's not a military intervention, but it feels like a few steps away from it. They left it unmentioned, but did they engage in combat? For them to brazenly admit it at this time, that's something. Russians had left the areas where they were, hard to have combat.
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Feb 23, 2023 18:15
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:isn't that a quote from a AFU soldier? Correct. It's being signal boosted by Ian Miles Chong, but since no one actually reads the thread--it's a quote from a Ukrainian journalist turned solider, whose essay is available here.
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Feb 23, 2023 18:16
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Beefeater1980 posted:The Express is a deeply lovely paper but the figure is a crusader because a long time ago it was supposed to have investigative journalists who would make it their personal crusade to get to the bottom of some story or other. I think the average reader is in their 80s now though. I stand corrected, thanks!
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Feb 23, 2023 18:46
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Agronox posted:Correct. It's being signal boosted by Ian Miles Chong, but since no one actually reads the thread--it's a quote from a Ukrainian journalist turned solider, whose essay is available here. Who cares where it comes from it's dumb as poo poo. We live in a degraded age where NATO is literally posting cringe. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 23, 2023 19:16
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Hm yes this war was cool until some intern posted Twitter cringe Have some perspective, ffs
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Feb 23, 2023 19:19
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steinrokkan posted:Hm yes this war was cool until some intern posted Twitter cringe Nnnnnno it was always bad, and continues to be bad, and loving NATO of anyone shouldn't be trivializing mass death by Marvelising it for redditors' consumption
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Feb 23, 2023 19:21
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Failed Imagineer posted:Nnnnnno it was always bad, and continues to be bad, and loving NATO of anyone shouldn't be trivializing mass death by Marvelising it for redditors' consumption I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian soldier being quoted isn't trivializing mass death.
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Feb 23, 2023 19:24
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Kchama posted:I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian soldier being quoted isn't trivializing mass death. Would you say that Ukraine is hosting one of the great epics of this century
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Feb 23, 2023 19:25
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Failed Imagineer posted:Would you say that Ukraine is hosting one of the great epics of this century It appears to be summing up the quoted person's own words. Like if you actually look at the other tweets, they're taking a quote and then summarizing what it means above it.
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Feb 23, 2023 19:28
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Keisari posted:Hold on hold on, wait what? Some high-ranking banker was literally assassinated? Why? Who? How? We have a class of public servants here called “insolvency administrators”, which is quite difficult to explain concisely. For simplicity's sake, you can consider them to be a lawyer equivalent of a private investigator, specializing in supervising physical and legal persons having an insolvency status (e.g., filing for bankruptcy or undergoing liquidation). To become one, you have to be an experienced lawyer with a spotless background check, and the job can pay so well that it ends up being stacked with the most loaded lawyers that we have around, i.e., partners of boutique law firms. This is a way to have EUR 300-500k annual salary in Latvia – or even better, as insolvency administrators receive a percentage-based commission from the recovered investments. ABLV Bank had an asset table in like 2-3 billion range, and the Financial and Capital Market Commission ended up doing some quick law changes to prevent any public insolvency administrator from becoming a multimillionaire quite automatically there or in similar future cases. Mārtiņš Bunkus was one of the higher profile insolvency administrators, through his role in the insolvency process of another major bank, Trasta Komercbanka. He reportedly ended up second on the shortlist for being appointed to the ABLV Bank's case, and was apparently tryharding above and beyond the normal behind the scenes to end up as the insolvency administrator for ABLV. Then, roughly 3 months after FinCEN took ABLV out, Bunkus was found killed, before any big decisions on ABLV insolvency were made. The hit was a professionally executed job, and got pronounced as such by cops almost immediately.  So, we have this giant rear end park in Riga (green music pin), and right adjacent to it is a giant cemetery (red pin). One morning, Bunkus was driving through the park area (expensive neighbourhood of private homes/McMansions). Assailants laid in ambush with a gunner set-up in a cloth-roof semi truck, and just mowed Bunkus down as he drove by, with his car subsequently swerving into a tree, if getting fatally shot wasn't enough. As soon as the hit was done, they drove off their truck into the depths of the cemetery, and burned it down there to basically a deformed metal chunk. And this is where the exotic story of North Korean nuclear billions and an unknown large Latvian bank getting shut down by the US government ends. Way before ABLV saga, back in 2008, groceries wholesaler Rego Trade was pronounced insolvent. Bunkus was an administrator assigned to them, and through court ended up forcing the board members of Rego to cough up a million. A few days before Bunkus was assassinated, our supreme court did overturn and send back for re-assessment a decision pertaining to 700k of those. So, we have in jail the shooter, a board member of Rego, and close business associate of that board member. The setup seems to have been the businessmen, or one of them, paid a known mafioso in prison to run the hit. The mafioso guy got killed in some presumed mafia poo poo last year. tldr; A food salesman got really mad about intermittently losing in court to Bunkus. Also I'm skipping a lot of details, like a previous assassination attempt against Bunkus in 2016, death threats he received that our police has ignored, and a lot of other typical Latvia poo poo. Oh and yeah, no public insolvency administrator was appointed to ABLV in the end, with the regulator approving the bank's self-liquidation proposal. The driver of the hit car, on that note, remains wholly unknown. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Feb 23, 2023 |
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Feb 23, 2023 19:30
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Failed Imagineer posted:Would you say that Ukraine is hosting one of the great epics of this century Yes I would, in the classical meaning of the word.
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Feb 23, 2023 19:36
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PM Sanchez of Spain is in Kyiv, and says that the 6 2A4s have to be extensively repaired before they will be sent to Ukraine, and that “we will see if we can scale up from 6 to 10”. https://www.ft.com/content/017864bd-f6db-459c-af67-675e81265ce2 It sounds like Spain literally allowed 100 tanks to rot and get pulled apart for random parts, drained of oil, etcetera, lmao.
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Feb 23, 2023 20:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:PM Sanchez of Spain is in Kyiv, and says that the 6 2A4s have to be extensively repaired before they will be sent to Ukraine, and that “we will see if we can scale up from 6 to 10”. https://www.ft.com/content/017864bd-f6db-459c-af67-675e81265ce2 Considering the poo poo I've seen working at a Spanish naval yard, I'll be surprised if they manage to put together even 6 working tanks out of 100 donors in various states of rot 
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Feb 23, 2023 20:14
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Agronox posted:Correct. It's being signal boosted by Ian Miles Chong, but since no one actually reads the thread--it's a quote from a Ukrainian journalist turned solider, whose essay is available here. Definitely fighting the Harkonenns, just not the smart ones.
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Feb 23, 2023 20:22
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If memory serves, Spain had already tried to sell its flooded and broken tank fleet years ago and found no buyer. These are the same tanks that people convinced themselves were ready to go to Ukraine if only Scholz didn't deny their export request (that didn't exist) a few months ago, and again a few weeks ago.
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Feb 23, 2023 20:34
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Sobering story of a young couple who originally volunteered to assist the armed forces thinking they’d likely never make it to the front lines. Then moving to a reserve role and finally to the trenches as casualties mounted in the Donbas, where they eventually perished together. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/20/world/asia/ukraine-russia-war-death.html No imagery but story talks about the bombardment in some detail. And also a reminder of average people just trying to hold on to their country.
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Feb 23, 2023 20:55
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