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fatherboxx posted:At this point it is just abstract "regime" because Azov was at first defeated and then Russia safely exchanged its commanders and a lot of renowned members - which is not what dedicated nazi-fighters tend to do. Also 'Maidan regime' because it is very important to delegitimise the elections that have happened since 2014. Under Russian rhetoric it is literally impossible for Ukraine to have a government it considers legitimate.
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Feb 25, 2023 22:34
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mlmp08 posted:Azov regiment and the Wolf’s angel symbol is the easy target. They rebranded several months ago following siege of Mariupol to remove this explicit marker to having both the AFU trident, or 3 perpendicular lines e: now known as 3rd separate assault brigade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3rd_Separate_Assault_Brigade_(Ukraine)
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Feb 25, 2023 22:50
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Ah. They removed one line.
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Feb 25, 2023 22:53
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Nenonen posted:Where are you coming from to this estimate (or guesstimate)? It seems hard to assess the real figure because some of the people who left have already returned. Some also left early, then returned, then left again when the mobilisation began. Leaving Russia is relatively easy, but staying abroad is more difficult unless you are made of money or immediately find work. i am open to being super incredibly wrong on this but every radio piece or podcast i listen to about the russian perspective is always like "and we just know so many people who leave, everyone has some friends who got out to other countries" and at first i thought this was related to the stories probably being mostly from upper class russians connected to wealthier people or tech workers who had the easiest time getting the gently caress out, but then the stories were always the same even when you were talking to people living out in the sticks the number of russians specifically just going over the border to kazakhstan, immediately following the mobilization order, that we even know about was still probably a hundred thousand russians. Like that's one tenth of what you need entirely in that category alone, in one week. then you read that a russian tech industry trade group figured that 50 to 70 thousand tech workers had left by the first month of the war (and assumed about another 100k would follow if able) enough to constitute a brain drain event specific to IT, so now we're at a fifth. Then you just keep adding and adding info we have from larger groups until you're at least mostly all the way to million people leaving .. again, that we even know about
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Feb 25, 2023 23:16
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Staluigi posted:i am open to being super incredibly wrong on this but every radio piece or podcast i listen to about the russian perspective is always like "and we just know so many people who leave, everyone has some friends who got out to other countries" and at first i thought this was related to the stories probably being mostly from upper class russians connected to wealthier people or tech workers who had the easiest time getting the gently caress out, but then the stories were always the same even when you were talking to people living out in the sticks And I can't ever imagine Russia managing to get specialized workers from abroad with sanctions and generally lovely Rouble exchange.
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Feb 25, 2023 23:37
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Tafferling posted:And I can't ever imagine Russia managing to get specialized workers from abroad with sanctions and generally lovely Rouble exchange. I mean you forgot the huge, endemic, corruption issue that prevents literally anything being done. We couldn't even send tools to Russia for Shell (or BP? I can't remember now) 10 years ago without the customs agents, trucking company and then the loving boat captain being like "ah sorry sir, tragic paperwork issue, we must ask for 1200 roubles to expediate handling the problem now or else 6 month delay, very sad yes.". The next time when we sent someone to deliver the tools personally they got hassled by the cops and had to pay them like 150 quid to avoid a night in the cells on some trumped up "disorderly conduct" charge.
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Feb 26, 2023 00:18
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I remember way way back there were a series of posts that got into this whole thing like "Here's this russian guy who was trying to be the only russian company that can successfully make drills without it being a loving trashfire disaster" and it went over all the problems that inevitably meant that it wasn't going to happen that time or ever so it was back to importing whole drills and that's just .. everything, usually, i loved it
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Feb 26, 2023 00:40
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Staluigi posted:I remember way way back there were a series of posts that got into this whole thing like "Here's this russian guy who was trying to be the only russian company that can successfully make drills without it being a loving trashfire disaster" and it went over all the problems that inevitably meant that it wasn't going to happen that time or ever so it was back to importing whole drills This one? (It starts with avocados, but eventually meanders over to the mining machines that ended up being outsourced to the Czech Republic.) https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388?lang=en
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Feb 26, 2023 01:20
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Tafferling posted:And I can't ever imagine Russia managing to get specialized workers from abroad with sanctions and generally lovely Rouble exchange. The Rouble is actually up vs. the Euro about 17% since the war started:  https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=EUR Compared to the dollar it's up 10%. Edit: so, the rouble is actually stronger than when the war started.
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Feb 26, 2023 01:58
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Cpt_Obvious posted:The Rouble is actually up vs. the Euro about 17% since the war started: I'm sure PederP can weigh in more on this when he wakes up, but it was discussed earlier that the rouble exchange rate right now is functionally meaningless because while you can theoretically get a quote for what you want to exchange the rouble for, it's not really possible to find someone actually willing to exchange them for you due to sanctions. It's like an display item in a window storefront - yes, it might be a decent deal at that price but it's a display item so they're not selling it and they don't have other copies to sell, so it's hard to call it an actually good deal. In the context of finding specialized workers aboard, what this means is that you can only attract them if they're willing to be paid in roubles which they can only spend in Russia (unless they're willing to do some complex and illegal money laundering, if that's even possible). Good luck with that.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:09
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Tomn posted:I'm sure PederP can weigh in more on this when he wakes up, but it was discussed earlier that the rouble exchange rate right now is functionally meaningless because while you can theoretically get a quote for what you want to exchange the rouble for, it's not really possible to find someone actually willing to exchange them for you due to sanctions. It's like an display item in a window storefront - yes, it might be a decent deal at that price but it's a display item so they're not selling it and they don't have other copies to sell, so it's hard to call it an actually good deal. Exactly what I was about to say. I'm not sure if things have changed since last year, but as far as I know, forex trading on rubles is functionally nonexistent, so any exchange rate between dollars and rubles is just a propaganda number by the Russian government to convince outsiders that sanctions don't have an effect.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:10
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Tomn posted:I'm sure PederP can weigh in more on this when he wakes up, but it was discussed earlier that the rouble exchange rate right now is functionally meaningless because while you can theoretically get a quote for what you want to exchange the rouble for, it's not really possible to find someone actually willing to exchange them for you due to sanctions. It's like an display item in a window storefront - yes, it might be a decent deal at that price but it's a display item so they're not selling it and they don't have other copies to sell, so it's hard to call it an actually good deal. Interesting, I did not know that. So, how is the exchange rate calculated if they cannot be exchanged?
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Feb 26, 2023 02:19
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Fragrag posted:cinci, blink twice if you're doing this against your will Xarn posted:Goondolences cinci bad_fmr posted:
Just Another Lurker posted:Best wishes on the not smoking front and as a former 12hr shift worker make sure you go to bed at the same time every night (my sleep schedule still goes bonkers three years after quitting the job). Thanks, everyone. And yeah, sleep was one thing that I ended up really letting myself go through the remote work transition in the pandemic, in retrospect. Before then, I had a fairly simple schedule – same bedtime every day, as you say, and really only needing an alarm clock for mornings after a night out or whatever. Nothingtoseehere posted:See how Ukraine - a country a third the population - has no manpower issues while taking similar magnitude casualties. Because they are in total war mobilization mode. “Has no manpower issues” is a bit of a broad brush here, I feel. Their officials have been complaining about the effort required to meet mobilization targets (e.g., 20k in January, as per Kofman) for some time already. At the moment, one major push seems to be unlocking an option to serve the papers via the centralized application for digital access to the public services. Karate Bastard posted:So, I guess my question is, is this actually a giant cleansing operation of domestic undesirables and people are actively cheering it on, or are these losses in fact no big deal for the russian everyman yet, or is it in fact having a huge impact on russian lives and families and they're presently creating a giant pressure cooker? Adding to other answers, a different sort of pressure cooker is definitely happening. Cases of PTSD and other war-related mental health problems are skyrocketing hard enough that Russian officials (remember, in Eastern Europe mental health is a taboo topic) are not just rolling a host of veteran care programs targeting it, but even going as far as to introducing regular mental health retreats for deployed military officers. That's one thing now – Russia is scrambling to copy-paste the American VA, since it doesn't have anything particularly comparable in scope and function. Another thing is the Wagner convicts programme – at this point, Russian officials will have given money, military training, combat experience (and/or trauma), and freedom to thousands of prisoners. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this programme seems to have been more notably popular with organised crime members, and people doing decades for mass murders and so on. That's already causing tensions when people watch the local rapist getting buried with a guard of honour at the local cemetery, with fancy tombstone and ceremony all paid out of public coffers. Enjoy posted:Are these tiny gains we're seeing the result of the formations mobilised last year, or are they yet to be deployed? The majority of them should be deployed now, but a large component of that demand was manning the 2nd and the 3rd lines of defence, and reconstituting depleted frontline formations. Which, I guess, is to posit 2 ideas – 100k fresh soldiers are not about to try to open a new front somewhere else, and the quality of the mobilized soldiers is below those that they're replacing. Staluigi posted:i am open to being super incredibly wrong on this but every radio piece or podcast i listen to about the russian perspective is always like "and we just know so many people who leave, everyone has some friends who got out to other countries" and at first i thought this was related to the stories probably being mostly from upper class russians connected to wealthier people or tech workers who had the easiest time getting the gently caress out, but then the stories were always the same even when you were talking to people living out in the sticks Conservative estimates place the number of Russia émigrés at 0.5 million. A particular problem demographic here is IT workers, which are estimated to have departed in the number of 100k, or 10% of the industry manpower total. https://thebell.io/skolko-rossiyan-v-2022-godu-uekhalo-iz-strany-i-ne-vernulos Continuing the line of thought on what kinds of pairs of hands Russia may or may not be short of, there was a recent survey conducted among Russian businesses. Worst deficits since 1993, including in manufacturing sectors, although this seems to be mainly associated with mobilization and draft, rather than emigration (you had to be loaded to flee and stay abroad, and not a factory worker making 300 USD per month). https://www.iep.ru/ru/kommentarii/sergey-tsukhlo-otsenil-defitsit-kadrov-v-promyshlennosti.html
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Feb 26, 2023 02:24
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freezing accounts, prohibiting currency exchange, forcing subsidiary states to convert a minimum of 80% of all Russian countries paid in foreign currency to convert 80% of those revenues into rubles, then watching forex trading on rubles get nuked will, uh, i guess, get you a "strong" currency, but it's weird to watch people use "strong currency" as a counterargument against the currency having a lovely exchange, especially considering russia ended up having to try to intentionally weaken their funhouse currency because they were overengineering their way into an export issue chuck e cheese could tell me they value their coins at ten dollars per and good luck getting people to accept it as payment and that's the issue
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Feb 26, 2023 02:25
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Interesting, I did not know that. Pure bullshit, basically.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:25
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Quitting smoking sucks. I'm off a fifteen year habit and I never believed people when they talked about what the first few days would be like. I was on a hair trigger and blew up on a guy at the factory who was whistling "La Cucaracha" every few minutes.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:28
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If I recall correctly, they also capped remittances, which further disincentivises workers with required skills from migrating to Russia.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:28
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Interesting, I did not know that. Ah, dug up one of the posts about this on the old thread. The short version as far as I understand it (not actually a finance goon myself, just been paying attention in this thread, I may have misunderstood) is that because nobody is really exchanging roubles, the Russian central bank can say that the exchange rate is whatever they say it is because they're the only ones making any kind of exchange with their own foreign currency reserves. PederP posted:The price of anything isn't really meaningful if there isn't a place where you can buy and sell it. Pretty much the only place the Ruble is being exchanged to/from Euros or Dollars in any significant amount is Gazprombank. When they receive payment for gas, the Russian Central Bank immediately buys 80% (or more) of it at a rate set by the Russian state.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:31
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So they can't, for example, circumvent sanctions by trading the rouble ==> yuen => euro?
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Feb 26, 2023 02:36
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:Quitting smoking sucks. I'm off a fifteen year habit and I never believed people when they talked about what the first few days would be like. I was on a hair trigger and blew up on a guy at the factory who was whistling "La Cucaracha" every few minutes. I really lucked out on switching to vaping a few years ago and instinctually reducing my nicotine consumption quite low, as the mood swings I had even at that were pretty fun. Cpt_Obvious posted:So they can't, for example, circumvent sanctions by trading the rouble ==> yuen => euro? Circumvent which sanctions? Russia had to make up all the safeguards to avoid getting rouble free-marketed. They're welcome to plug right back in whenever.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:41
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So they can't, for example, circumvent sanctions by trading the rouble ==> yuen => euro? I'd be interested to hear the explanation from a dedicated finance guy, but speaking as a layman I think part of the issue here is what exactly is China going to do with the rubles after they buy them, given that nobody else will accept them? There's only so much one can buy from Russia and if China is standing as the only available foreign exchange with little worth to be gained from the ruble they're free to bend Putin over a barrel and turbodick him on both trade good prices and exchange rates, which is hardly better. Edit: If I understand it correctly, this is roughly how the exchange would go down: "So you wish to exchange rubles for yuan? Great! I will accept one gazillion rubles in exchange for one yuan. Don't like it? Feel free to shop somewhere else. Oh, you're going to go ahead with it? Excellent. You may now use this yuan to buy euros and maybe, hopefully, find a European company that isn't afraid of sanctions and is willing to sell things to you. Or alternatively you can buy our stuff with your yuan! There will be a small 1000% mark-up to reflect the difficulty of shipment, of course. Now, by the way, how much oil do you have? I would like to buy it all. How does twenty rubles sound? And do you have any other mineral goods worth taking? I've got more twenty-ruble bills for you. Oh, you don't like my prices? Feel free to get a better deal from Belarus!" Tomn fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Feb 26, 2023 |
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Feb 26, 2023 02:48
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Ah, we're talking now about the transactional sanctions in general, rather than about what defines the rouble's value specifically at the moment. This is a bit of a yes and no situation. On one hand, RUB is traded with a few other currencies, RMB included, which may be used as a data point for a currency rate estimate. On the other hand, sanctions are institution-based. For instance, the central bank of Russia cannot make any U.S. dollar-denominated transactions, rather than merely on the RUB:USD pairing.
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Feb 26, 2023 02:57
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There was a time in the Soviet union when 1 ruble was like 1.1 dollars. Because the ruble had to be stronger than the dollar. That was the official exchange rate. Then there was the other rate when a Soviet diplomat actually had to change money to go to US for example.
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Feb 26, 2023 03:05
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I am an idiot who does not understand how modern currency works, but isn't Russia's internal economy hosed either way since they, as posted a bit earlier, have no access to basic industrial and manufacturing goods from abroad, let alone consumer goods?
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Feb 26, 2023 03:07
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Tomn posted:I'd be interested to hear the explanation from a dedicated finance guy, but speaking as a layman I think part of the issue here is what exactly is China going to do with the rubles after they buy them, given that nobody else will accept them? Buy Russian goods like gas oil and fertilizer, I assume. Or, at least, rubles is what they are using to buy those. India is doing that too.
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Feb 26, 2023 03:08
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Rappaport posted:I am an idiot who does not understand how modern currency works, but isn't Russia's internal economy hosed either way since they, as posted a bit earlier, have no access to basic industrial and manufacturing goods from abroad, let alone consumer goods? I'm not sure what “a bit earlier” refers to here, but you need to double-check it. They have access to quite a bit of basic goods – anything that China can sell them, for instance. Problems are with stuff that is made in western countries, or under a western licence, that happens to also be under sanctions. Their economy doesn't have a healthy medium-long term outlook, but it's not for the reasons of Russia purportedly running out of air fryers or some such. Tomn posted:Edit: If I understand it correctly, this is roughly how the exchange would go down: No, that's not really accurate, e.g., https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/9/6/china-agrees-to-pay-for-russian-gazprom-gas-in-rubles-and-yuan An extra wrinkle here is that Russia is buying a lot of RMB for reserve currency purposes, enough to basically force China to buy more USD to keep RMB sufficiently stable for international trade.
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Feb 26, 2023 03:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I'm not sure what “a bit earlier” refers to here, but you need to double-check it. They have access to quite a bit of basic goods – anything that China can sell them, for instance. Problems are with stuff that is made in western countries, or under a western licence, that happens to also be under sanctions. Their economy doesn't have a healthy medium-long term outlook, but it's not for the reasons of Russia purportedly running out of air fryers or some such. Yeah I forgot to add in a European / western qualifier in my post, I'm sorry. I'm not saying their economy is collapsing in the near future, air fryers or not, just that with the systemic decay of production chains having issues, they'll have major head-aches in the less near future of a few years.
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Feb 26, 2023 03:19
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypRNl6AjxW8
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Feb 26, 2023 03:24
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Some summary or commentary is preferable to naked links
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Feb 26, 2023 03:28
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Rappaport posted:Yeah I forgot to add in a European / western qualifier in my post, I'm sorry. I'm not saying their economy is collapsing in the near future, air fryers or not, just that with the systemic decay of production chains having issues, they'll have major head-aches in the less near future of a few years. Absolutely, there are some sectors where they need to start inventing comparable equipment, and some sectors where the west holds a strict technological monopoly (example: 95% of hardware used in machine learning is made by Nvidia). Just inventing GPUs might end up being easier said than done, but, on the flip side, the sanctions are not being enforced remarkably well as yet. Most importantly, any of this that would or could happen is realistically years away. As far as 2023 is concerned, the only party at a risk of an economic collapse is if some EU clerk forgets to send Ukraine more money, and they have to default on a pile of IMF poo poo. Ukraine's allies have to work now on enforcing sanctions better, in addition to expanding them, and any theoretical counter for Russia running out of money will start counting only when that work is proven to be done. Right now, they're having their first bad year of public spending deficit, but at the current rate they've got a few years worth in the sovereign wealth fund, before they even have to go looking for someone to lend them more. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Feb 26, 2023 |
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Feb 26, 2023 03:35
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Fritz the Horse posted:Some summary or commentary is preferable to naked links According to the guy and his sources, the Russian forces fighting near Vuhledar degraded below combat effective after multiple failed assaults and defending against Ukrainian counters. Reinforcements to push the assault forwards were ordered up from Mariupol, but they and their supply dumps were hit while assembling by new long range Ukrainian rockets, so that when they arrived they lacked the combat strength to make any difference, and now they're out of time with nothing left to move up.
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Feb 26, 2023 03:38
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Forgive me if I missed it but I didn't see this article posted yet and it's super interesting. From Feb 22 "How Putin blundered into Ukraine — then doubled down" https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49 Not really "newsy", and there is quite a bit of stuff we have hashed out here as conventional wisdom. But there were some things I either wasn't aware of or thought were eyebrow raising: Putin thinks finding out the MIC being a shambles is a silver lining of the war, since it means they didn't find out in the direct conflict with Nato that he seems to genuinely believe is going to happen at some point. quote:“The idea was never for hundreds of thousands of people to die. It’s all gone horribly wrong,” a former senior Russian official says. With the initial plan in tatters, Putin is searching for new rationales to justify the war effort, insisting he had no choice but to pursue the invasion by any means necessary, current and former officials say. We knew this but more fuel for the "backing down just leads to more conflict" fire. quote:Initially, the advisers urged Putin against sending troops into Crimea, according to a former senior Russian official and a former senior US official. “Putin said, ‘This is a historic moment. If you don’t agree with it, you can leave,’” the former Russian official recalls. There is a whole section on how the pandemic isolation led to Putin going further down the rabbit hole of his own misinformation machine. quote:During the height of the pandemic, Putin was largely cut off from comparatively liberal, western-minded confidants who had previously had his ear. Instead he spent the first few months in his residence at Valdai, a bucolic town on a lake in northern Russia, essentially on lockdown with the younger Kovalchuk, who inspired Putin to think of his historic mission to assert Russia’s greatness, much as Peter the Great had. quote:Instead, amid widespread disarray among the invaders, Russia’s army shot down a number of its own aircraft in the early days of the invasion. As a result, it ran out of pilots with experience of combat operations involving ground forces who were also prepared to fly, according to two western officials and a Ukrainian official. Allegedly Western powers threatened Putin with direct military retaliation if he uses nukes in Ukraine. And Putin calculated that there is nothing to gain by using them anyway. quote:Those threats worried western countries sufficiently that the US, UK, and France, Nato’s three nuclear powers, delivered a joint message to Russia vowing to retaliate with conventional weapons if Putin decided to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to the former US and Russian officials. Putin is counting on Republicans to win power in the US as well as sentiment to turn against supporting Ukraine in EU. It will probably work. (by the way this thread has repeatedly talked about how even if the GOP won power they wouldn't turn on Ukraine, but I hope you are paying attention to all of the statements from very senior GOP officials about how we shouldn't be spending money on Ukraine lately. They are making a big push about how Biden cares more about Ukraine than East Palestine, Ohio) quote:Putin’s calculation, people close to the Kremlin say, is that Russia is more committed to the war than the west is to Ukraine, and resilient enough to see out the economic pain. Senior Republicans have openly questioned how long the US can go on supporting Ukraine to the same extent and the party retains a realistic chance of capturing the White House in 2024.
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Feb 26, 2023 05:00
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Charliegrs posted:When Russia pushes the "Ukrainian government is a fascist neo Nazi government" narrative do they ever point to any particular individuals in the Ukrainian government as being Nazis? Or is it just "the regime"? Like do they actually claim Zelensky or any high ranking military officials are literal Nazis? Do they ever provide evidence? (My guess is either they don't or it's just fabricated crap). It's really not meant to be interpreted as an empirical claim. It's meant to say "they are bad and we are good". That's all it can mean.
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Feb 26, 2023 05:20
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DancingMachine posted:
The thing is that the Republicans know no shame or hypocrisy. Biden is seen positively in the lens of Ukraine, so they want to attack that. Not because they disagree with Biden on Ukraine, but because Biden is gaining popularity with it. If they use it to drag Biden down and defeat him electorally, then there is a better than even chance that they'll immediately flip and go hard on helping Ukraine, because it's been proven to be a clear winner as long as you can be certain your opponents have any principles at all.
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Feb 26, 2023 05:34
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Just Another Lurker posted:If russia decides to just switch to a static defence along the whole frontline i have to wonder how long they would last. Out of curiosity what do you mean by barely trained? I haven't really kept up with the conscription going on in Russia but I seem to remember it being a few months ago, and the majority of them haven't been deployed yet? I know that currently the U.S. Army's basic training is 10 weeks, followed by another 10 weeks (average, some MOS's are longer/shorter) of advanced training.
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Feb 26, 2023 05:50
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:America and Ukraine are also democracies, and Russia isn't. There's no "popular pressure" that will eventually force Putin's hand; it doesn't work like that. Our persistent habit of viewing Russian politics through a democratic lens is as much an error as Putin's habit of assuming Biden can just order Britain to do things. How is Ukraine a democracy if the ruling party banned opposition parties, confiscated their resources, and took over the media? https://www.npr.org/2022/07/08/1110577439/zelenskyy-has-consolidated-ukraines-tv-outlets-and-dissolved-rival-political-par (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 26, 2023 05:57
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spacetoaster posted:How is Ukraine a democracy if the ruling party banned opposition parties, confiscated their resources, and took over the media? What country in the world during martial law let's the invading country's political parties operate as nothing has happened?
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Feb 26, 2023 06:08
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Wasn't the concept of dictator created to sort out a republic's crisis if it were dire enough?
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Feb 26, 2023 06:09
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spacetoaster posted:How is Ukraine a democracy if the ruling party banned opposition parties, confiscated their resources, and took over the media? Oh no, not the "Russia should invade" party. How will their democracy survive this?
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Feb 26, 2023 06:16
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spacetoaster posted:How is Ukraine a democracy if the ruling party banned opposition parties, confiscated their resources, and took over the media That's a complete exaggeration. The "resources" and "the media" were one (1) TV station owned by an MP under investigation for treason. The parties banned were actively pro-Russia and had only, in total, a handful of MPs. The article even says Ukraine is not believed to be trending authoritarian, and will have to meet EU standards for a free press and free political life. Read the articles you're posting.
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Feb 26, 2023 06:19
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