|
A counteroffensive around Bakhmut would be quite bizarre, since all targets behind that frontline on the Russian side are hard. Really hard.
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 22:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 00:07 |
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:A counteroffensive around Bakhmut would be quite bizarre, since all targets behind that frontline on the Russian side are hard. Really hard. If Ukraine is to achieve their goals it will have to happen some day. But you have a point that they'd just be pushing through Russia's largest force to then come up against the part of Donetsk that Russia has been fortifying since 2014. So attacking elsewhere and trying to cut off other major supply routes would make sense. It just feels bad to watch them slowly lose ground here and not be able to do much more about it, but winning a war versus winning a battle etc.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 22:44
|
|
|
Orthanc6 posted:If Ukraine is to achieve their goals it will have to happen some day. But you have a point that they'd just be pushing through Russia's largest force to then come up against the part of Donetsk that Russia has been fortifying since 2014. So attacking elsewhere and trying to cut off other major supply routes would make sense. Oh, they'll absolutely have to go there – it's just going to be 10 times easier to do the frontline smash somewhere up north, move eastwards past the Donbas fortifications, and hook south to hit them from the rear. Historically, combat density was the greatest around Donetsk city, so that's where you have the highest concentration of historic battlements dating back to 2014.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 22:48
|
|
|
The Nazis had Leningrad under siege from like 1941 to 1944. The Soviet Union made major progress on other fronts before they finally relieved Leningrad. I feel that Bakhmut and Mariupol are examples of this situation so the Ukrainian army can find a weak point somewhere else. Breaking the Crimean land bridge could make an enormous strategic difference in this war and I would see that as the highest priority for Ukraine to demonstrate to its western partners that it can win. If they use their leopards and long range missiles to break the Russians at Bakhmut it wont achieve much beyond reinforcing the status quo.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 22:53
|
|
|
It's hard to underestimate russian competence, but a direct push south would be hitting vastly more russians and fortifications than anywhere else, wouldn't it? I see that getting theorycrafted all over western twitter as if one big blitzkrieg can cut to Mariupol and win the day. The Cinci plan seems more realistic given the ukrainians clearly know what they are doing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 22:53
|
|
|
Edgar Allen Ho posted:It's hard to underestimate russian competence, but a direct push south would be hitting vastly more russians and fortifications than anywhere else, wouldn't it? Direct push south from where? Do you mean 2014-2021, or 2022+ fortifications? The largest number of 2014–2021 fortifications is around Donetsk city from "LDNR" side, and Slovyansk-Kramatorsk from the government side. That's why Ukrainians are not expected to be doing any frontal attacks there (well, in addition to Donetsk being a big city), and that's why (I assume) Russian invasion force did pile the majority 2022+ fortifications on the Zaporizhzhia front, since for much of 2022 northern Luhansk oblast' looked relatively safe/optimistic to their planners, and disrupting the “land bridge” is likely the most important thing that AFU can do to destabilize Russia's current posture in Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 23:08
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:The goal was to have like a thousand T-14's operational by 2018 or so. As well as the rest of the whole Armata family of vehicles!¨
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 23:50
|
|
|
The Russian Defence Industry has had chronic problems, this pre-war article does a really good deep dive into them: https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/russias-defense-industry-and-its-influence-policy-stuck-redistributive-feedback-loop
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2023 23:58
|
|
|
HonorableTB posted:The south of Ukraine thaws and dries earlier than it does in the east/northeast regions. It's not super significant (about a week's difference more or less) but if you gently caress it up like Putin did, it can be very bad for you. It's possible the south will be dry enough to launch a counteroffensive while the mud's still a problem further northeast. In my view, the counteroffensive is going to be in the Zaporizhzhia oblast area and likely aimed at severing the land bridge between Crimea and Russia so the likely target for this next particular counteroffensive will be Melitopol, probably not Mariupol this time. Melitopol would be a reasonable target; it's strategically important, threatens the Russians further south with being caught in a pincer between Melitopol and Kherson, makes Russia decide whether to defend Mariupol direction or Crimea direction, leaves Ukraine a lot of flexibility in what to do next. There were some maps posted with the distribution of forces. There it looked like the weakest spot would be in the region west of Vuledar pushing south towards Berdiansk.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 00:59
|
|
|
Doesn’t the Russian navy control the sea of azov? Can you actually sever the land bridge when part of it is subject to naval bombardment and even amphibious landing? It seems really optimistic, is there something less sweeping they could try for?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 01:16
|
|
|
Magic Underwear posted:Doesn’t the Russian navy control the sea of azov? Can you actually sever the land bridge when part of it is subject to naval bombardment and even amphibious landing? It seems really optimistic, is there something less sweeping they could try for? Yeah, tell that to Moskva lol. They're loaded with coastal defence missiles, and “sever” means “firing position on the last remaining road for cargo trucks”.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 01:18
|
|
|
Magic Underwear posted:Doesn’t the Russian navy control the sea of azov? Can you actually sever the land bridge when part of it is subject to naval bombardment and even amphibious landing? It seems really optimistic, is there something less sweeping they could try for? There aren't that many ships left of the Russian Black Sea fleet, and Ukraine has demonstrated considerable anti-ship capabilities. It's not a force to be feared. It has primarily been used to launch long-range missiles. There aren't any battleships or other large floating guns they could bring to bear.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 01:19
|
|
|
Can’t be reinforced either, I believe. Turkey has that straight on lockdown, as far as the Russians are concerned.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 01:47
|
|
|
Icon Of Sin posted:Can’t be reinforced either, I believe. Turkey has that straight on lockdown, as far as the Russians are concerned. Do they still have that massive chain on the Bosporus that they can lift up to block ships?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 01:56
|
|
|
Magic Underwear posted:Doesn’t the Russian navy control the sea of azov? Can you actually sever the land bridge when part of it is subject to naval bombardment and even amphibious landing? It seems really optimistic, is there something less sweeping they could try for? Naval bombardment is not a realistic option, and if the front lines are pushed so far from the Sea of Azov that an amphibious landing makes sense, Russia has probably already lost Crimea. Edit: It is probably better to think of the Russian land forces as protecting the naval forces on the sea rather than the reverse. saratoga fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Mar 4, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 01:58
|
|
|
There's an article on the Modern War Institute suggesting the US should bring back the Coast Artillery as a branch (as distinct from Field Artillery). It also noted that we basically already have the equipment in the form of MLRS and HIMARS launchers: we just need more surface-to-ship missiles to be fired from them.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 02:01
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Do they still have that massive chain on the Bosporus that they can lift up to block ships? That was across the Golden Horn, iirc
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 02:15
|
|
|
don't think i saw this posted external management to be introduced at enterprises shirking state defense order quote:MOSCOW, March 3. /TASS/. The Russian authorities will introduce external management at any enterprises which fail to fulfill their obligations under the state defense order in conditions of martial law. my reading of this is that for now it doesn't mean very much, because there isn't any war production being done in the regions under martial law, but to me it seems like a pretty clear threat to the russian defense industry maybe someone more familiar with the internal politics of russia could weigh in if there's anything actually behind this or if it's theater to further the sentiment that putin is being disserved by the corrupt bureaucracy and he's not to blame for all the problems
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 02:18
|
|
|
Antigravitas posted:I know this is a strict no humour / no sarcasm zone, but my read on the post was "wow, this is so unbelievably badly executed you'd be forgiven to think it's a conspiracy". You are correct. The person who took me literally is amusing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 03:38
|
|
|
Phone posting so apologize if this doesn’t link properly https://youtu.be/xmtqXovLhv4 Anders Puck Nielsen (who appears to be a thread favorite) had a guest on who’s an anti-war Russian politician living in Israel for sake of his own freedom/safety. Regulars here probably won’t find too much new here. The guy has his own fairly successful YT channel with English subtitles for western viewers. What did y’all think about the interview and Maxim?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 04:11
|
|
|
Huggybear posted:You are correct. The person who took me literally is amusing. You wrote a dumb post and got called on it. Take the loss and move on.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 06:54
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Taking a brief break from Bakhmut, Novaya Gazeta has done an in-depth analysis of pro-Russian voting patterns in the European Parliament. This might be a bit dry if you're not following EU politics proper, but I found it interesting to see someone finally do the maths on all the usual suspects. https://euobserver.com/world/156762 To the surprise of absolutely nobody with pulse and half a brain, Czech SPD is on the list.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 09:25
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Do they still have that massive chain on the Bosporus that they can lift up to block ships? Turkey‘s naval fleet is probably superior to the Russian black sea fleet these days. They bought several larger ships from Germany (modern ones) and I think from the UK too. Not sure if they‘d really use their fleet to block the Bosporus if Russia tried to bring more ships in but I think that point is moot because Russia is scared to use their currently present ships already.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 10:03
|
|
|
I don't think feeding elite units into this fight is worth it. Better to use them in counter attacks elsewhere if they want to relieve pressure on Bakhmut https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1631948412772835330
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 10:47
|
|
|
Huggybear posted:You are correct. The person who took me literally is amusing. Freudian slippers posted:You wrote a dumb post and got called on it. Take the loss and move on. Folks, hash this e-honour thing out in PMs or like meet at 6pm behind the supermarket or whatever. buglord posted:Anders Puck Nielsen (who appears to be a thread favorite) It's two-three (mostly) Danish goons posting their local expert. Charlz Guybon posted:I don't think feeding elite units into this fight is worth it. Better to use them in counter attacks elsewhere if they want to relieve pressure on Bakhmut This is where mobilization comes into play, that you have to do quite a bit of counter-attacking to create an urgent need to pull troops from an ongoing operation.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 10:56
|
|
|
Icon Of Sin posted:Can’t be reinforced either, I believe. Turkey has that straight on lockdown, as far as the Russians are concerned. The Baltic-Volga-Don canal system could be used to bring in some ships, but draught (as well as height) puts a limit on the size of ships. So cruisers are right out. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Deep_Water_System_of_European_Russia
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 11:20
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1631916378578984960 Shoygu has made the rare appearance in Ukraine, allegedly.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 11:43
|
|
|
Tahirovic posted:Turkey‘s naval fleet is probably superior to the Russian black sea fleet these days. They bought several larger ships from Germany (modern ones) and I think from the UK too. They absolutely would. Bosporus goes right past their capital, if a military ship tries to cross without permission they'll treat it basically the same as how US would treat it if a foreign military power tried to sail an armed vessel up the Potomac past DC.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 12:30
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:They absolutely would. Bosporus goes right past their capital, if a military ship tries to cross without permission they'll treat it basically the same as how US would treat it if a foreign military power tried to sail an armed vessel up the Potomac past DC.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 12:36
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:They absolutely would. Bosporus goes right past their capital, if a military ship tries to cross without permission they'll treat it basically the same as how US would treat it if a foreign military power tried to sail an armed vessel up the Potomac past DC. While I agree with the point, I got some news about the capital of 🇹🇷
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 12:36
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:They absolutely would. Bosporus goes right past their capital, if a military ship tries to cross without permission they'll treat it basically the same as how US would treat it if a foreign military power tried to sail an armed vessel up the Potomac past DC. I believe Ankara is the capital of Türkiye, though I suspect your conjecture remains valid. e: f/b
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 12:39
|
|
|
Trying to decide if this is an intentional OpenAI joke on the part of anyone here or if this is just an "art imitates life" situation
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 12:43
|
|
|
Oops. Well, it's the commercial heart of the country. More like sailing up the Hudson then?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 12:46
|
|
|
And I really don't like Moscow on the Hudson.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 13:15
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:MT-LB continues being a very flexible platform: https://twitter.com/zloneversleep/status/1631990343888433152 I wonder if it's intended as some sort of anti-drone tool; a janky gepard without the clever stuff.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 13:20
|
|
|
Pablo Bluth posted:There's at least two of them. It's kinda hard to do a sneak and peak when you're over 10 feet tall
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 13:31
|
|
|
NTRabbit posted:That's my city! Hello Adelaide goon friend! I found out yesterday two of my co-workers went to that protest, which is going to lead to some awkward coffee break talk tomorrow.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 13:54
|
|
|
NTRabbit posted:It's kinda hard to do a sneak and peak when you're over 10 feet tall You can drive behind a house or a small hill and be completely hull down, though. I really thought it was a fake when the first photo arised, like maybe the 2M-3 was behind the chassis. But no... that thing raises the center of mass really high, it can't handle well in terrain. What's very interesting is that Russia already had a MT-LB variant, the MT-LBM-6MB which has a BTR-80A turret with 30mm autocannon. I guess those are just too expensive to make and they probably had plenty of spare naval turrets in storage so it was a quick'n'easy job to bring more "mobile" "armoured" "firepower" to replace losses. Just amazing. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 14:03
|
|
|
All of this is why I wonder if they're intended for anti-drone duty. They clearly have questionable mobility, so use them away from moving frontlines. Park them up at strategic locations until a drone is spotted, and hope you can light up the sky enough to take down the drone(s). Google says they have a range of 2.5km and a AA ceiling of 1.7km. Or this is the Russians. So we'll see them at the front line. Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 14:22 on Mar 4, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 14:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 00:07 |
|
|
Pretty sure I've seen the Ukrainians drive around in technicals with a 30 or 50 cal on the back to shoot down drones too. fake edit: yeah  https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/ukraine-downs-swarm-of-iran-made-attack-drones-over-kyiv/
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2023 14:34
|
|
