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HonorableTB posted:I don't think Kadyrov's poisoning is outlandish anymore. MSN has picked up the story that's citing the same source as the tabloids + adding some speculation about how many people would have reason to want to kill kadyrov, which tbf is a lot, but it's still entirely speculative it's literally just msn reposting a metro article on their site, so yeah still just tabloids Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 07:31 on Mar 5, 2023 |
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Mar 5, 2023 07:27
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Fair enough, I should improve my media literacy. My mistake!
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Mar 5, 2023 07:47
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Discendo Vox posted:...if Kadyrov were to drop dead, though, who would take his place? realistically, whoever in the Tsentoroy mafia wins a power struggle? the Chechen wars didn't leave much in terms of balance between various regional elites (as is the case, in my limited understanding of northern Caucasus politics, the case in Dagestan and Ingushetia), even if it would be ah... interesting if someone decided it'd be a good time to try for independent Republic of Ichkeria round 3 at present
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Mar 5, 2023 08:44
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If nothing else it would result in the recall of the units in Ukraine to bolster whoever wants to come out on top, and if they wanted to try for independence it's not like Russia has the resources to do anything about it. The result might be Russia stops paying for it which might end up as a net positive to their bank accounts.
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Mar 5, 2023 09:22
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To be fair if there were ever a world leader to accidentally kill themselves with some sort of alt-med bodybuilding or male enhancement supplement, I feel like Kadyrov would be near the top of the list.
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Mar 5, 2023 10:25
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https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1632270968868466689?t=IpurhNAHJDuC4GIwpe02-g&s=19 MOD reports of mobiks being sent into battle with shovels.
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Mar 5, 2023 11:43
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Jarf posted:https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1632270968868466689?t=IpurhNAHJDuC4GIwpe02-g&s=19
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Mar 5, 2023 12:13
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Jarf posted:https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1632270968868466689?t=IpurhNAHJDuC4GIwpe02-g&s=19 Please read the tweet you just posted, it's not too long. “Firearms and shovels” still sucks versus a bunker, but they're not fighting the 100-year war there.
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Mar 5, 2023 12:14
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A peek at the counter offensive to come? https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1632332533567217671 Training footage of the AS-90 that will be handed over soon https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1632334324488974337
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Mar 5, 2023 12:35
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Yeah, it’s not just shovels. Still weird to read that the Russians have a ‘mythologised‘ shovel (MPL-50) that hasn’t changed much since the 19th century and spetsnaz had a special training program for it for close quarters combat. It’s feels vile. But I guess that appropriate for this war.
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Mar 5, 2023 12:40
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HonorableTB posted:Fair enough, I should improve my media literacy. My mistake!
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Mar 5, 2023 12:58
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New Perun on Wagner and Russian PMC https://youtu.be/wXKUNc9yI2A
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Mar 5, 2023 13:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Please read the tweet you just posted, it's not too long. “Firearms and shovels” still sucks versus a bunker, but they're not fighting the 100-year war there. Yeah I should have emphasised the mythological part...
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Mar 5, 2023 13:11
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mrfart posted:Yeah, it’s not just shovels. Still weird to read that the Russians have a ‘mythologised‘ shovel (MPL-50) that hasn’t changed much since the 19th century and spetsnaz had a special training program for it for close quarters combat.
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Mar 5, 2023 13:13
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Jarf posted:Yeah I should have emphasised the mythological part... Not really unique, to be honest. Remember this pre-war Ukrainian army ad eulogizing the shovel, specifically at one point noting its uses "If we run out of ammunition"? Might very well be the same model of shovel the Russians use even, given the shared Soviet origins of their military. Shovels are handy things for a soldier to lug around and there's a certain emotional resonance to boasting about how a soldier's most important tool isn't some shiny gun for killing, but a simple shovel similar to the ones every civilian has lying around.
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Mar 5, 2023 15:50
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Tomn posted:Might very well be the same model of shovel the Russians use even, given the shared Soviet origins of their military. Yeah, that one looks like an MPL-50, too.
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Mar 5, 2023 16:39
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Might be the first time a Russian official acknowledges neo-nazis fighting on Russia's side. https://www.fontanka.ru/2023/03/02/72101819/ The journalist pushed Andrey Kartapolov (United Russia Duma Member) on the presence of nazis in the Rusich Batallion, citing numerous photos and videos of them with nazi flags, tattoos, doing nazi salutes, etc., and whether pointing that out could fall under what the new law defines as defamation of volunteers participating in the special military operation. Andrey Kartapolov posted:I would recommend talking about these people with caution. Not to come into conflict with ourselves. You can't just go around saying that these people support fascists without any proof. [...] I'm sure they've already removed their tattoos and are no longer doing nazi salutes. If they are carrying out tasks as part of a grouping of Russian troops, it means they have already reformed. Before the war, Kartaponov, an ex-military officer, served as Deputy Defence Minister
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Mar 5, 2023 18:36
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DancingMachine posted:Absolutely. I continue to be mystified by this thread's confidence in continued US support of Ukraine. Trump and Fox News ARE the mainstream of the Republican Party. They are not remotely fringe figures. Support for Ukraine ends in 2024 unless Dems win a trifecta of house, senate, and white house again. Two-party politics does create this bi-polar dynamic where no matter what you support the other team is gonna oppose. The other half of the situation is that: 1. 80-90% of Americans couldn't find Ukraine on a map. It is going to be very hard to convince them to care about a country they've basically never heard of before. 2. Wars have a very clear pattern for public support where they start off with a wave of popularity that peters out over time. We saw this with the middle east, vietnam, etc. It's going to be an uphill battle to keep the public focused on Ukraine the especially now when there is a much deeper division between the parties. At least in the middle east Democrats and Republicans were pretty lockstep for most of the war. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 5, 2023 18:57
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If Wagner consists mostly of untrained disposable cannon fodder, what is it that they are doing that allows Russia to gain ground? From the sounds of things it looks like the goal here is to grind down the Ukrainian military until it’s no longer able to fight. But how are they able to inflict what are rumoured to be serious casualties to seasoned Ukrainian brigades. Is the problem here just a question of sheer numbers? Does Russia have so many people that they can dump their prison system on the UAF, inflict enough casualties to degrade their combat potential and then still have more people to continue fighting? What weapons, equipment or technology could Ukraine possibly use to fight a war like this? Like could the US army fair any better if they’re being attacked by non stop waves of cannon fodder?
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Mar 5, 2023 19:23
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War in Ukraine: DJI's nutz AWACSd Russias rusty dome (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 5, 2023 19:25
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Kraftwerk posted:If Wagner consists mostly of untrained disposable cannon fodder It doesn't normally, and the one-time action of “churn through some prisoners” did conclude weeks ago. What hasn't concluded is Wagner's marketing campaign.
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Mar 5, 2023 19:30
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Kraftwerk posted:If Wagner consists mostly of untrained disposable cannon fodder, what is it that they are doing that allows Russia to gain ground? Historically Wagner was a core of 5-10k fairly experienced Russian former military that recruited heavily from combat-focused units. They had an advantage in recruiting because they paid well and, very significantly, you could go work for them without having to deal with being at the mercy of the Russian MoD or regular Russian military leadership.
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Mar 5, 2023 19:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It doesn't normally, and the one-time action of “churn through some prisoners” did conclude weeks ago. What hasn't concluded is Wagner's marketing campaign. I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are? Or are they sending so many soldiers at a position that the Ukrainians don’t have the ammo or the people to kill them all fast enough that eventually one or two break through and take out a couple guys before dying and this repeats over and over until the position collapses?
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Mar 5, 2023 19:35
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are? When Russia has 10-20x advantage in artillery and heavy weapons, they advance. It's irrelevant if the guys taking the positions of retreating Ukrainian soldiers are convicts or some other unit as long as the howitzer and MRLS beats.
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Mar 5, 2023 19:40
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are? Earlier on, wagner was using recruited prisoners as cannon fodder to probe ukranian defensive lines. Most of them were killed, but if any of them happened across a weak point the "actual" wagner troops would follow through and make positional gains. Now though, the gains seem to be coming because russia is willing to sacrifice a lot of human lives to make those advances, and Ukraine is presumably trying to preserve their combat power and not get their troops killed pointlessly.
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Mar 5, 2023 19:43
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are? The tactics being used by both sides are to all appearances pretty complicated, with lots of use of infiltration and counterattacks, but it mostly boils down to lots of artillery and a willingness to keep the pressure on. In the modern art of war, weapons are so destructive that only the most lavish static defensive positions have a chance of holding firm against a determined attack. There's a reason Wagner was complaining extremely loudly when their artillery shell ration was cut to the standard level rather than the apparent much higher level they had been enjoying until very recently. It's also how the Russians were pushing up in the pre-HIMARS offensives- somewhat wasteful infantry 'reconnaissance' (it doesn't have to be 'human wave' tactics to get a lot of people killed), followed by heavy artillery barrages of identified positions.
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Mar 5, 2023 19:46
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are? You can destroy anything if you drop enough bombs on it but first you do have to locate and identify defensive positions which is difficult. Russia can't overwhelm all the Ukrainian positions at the same time but Ukraine also can't prevent individual positions from being destroyed.
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Mar 5, 2023 19:51
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are? If you got two hours to spare today's Perun video is about Russian PMC's with a focus on Wagner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXKUNc9yI2A And he also did one on the fighting around Bakhmut that covers what you're asking in good detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fqHERDXVpk
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Mar 5, 2023 21:43
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Atreiden posted:If you got two hours to spare today's Perun video is about Russian PMC's with a focus on Wagner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXKUNc9yI2A To sum it up from what I remember, basically Russia has been prepared to throw a lot more resources at Bakhmut than Ukraine. If Ukraine had decided to hold Bakhmut at all costs, and sent troops that are currently preparing for their next offensive to defend it, it would probably hold. But then Ukraine would be less prepared for the next offensive. So if you were commanding the Ukraine army, would you send those reinforcements to save Bakhmut? At the risk of your big drive for, say, Melitopol falling short due to you lacking a couple of fresh battalions?
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Mar 5, 2023 21:52
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lilljonas posted:To sum it up from what I remember, basically Russia has been prepared to throw a lot more resources at Bakhmut than Ukraine. If Ukraine had decided to hold Bakhmut at all costs, and sent troops that are currently preparing for their next offensive to defend it, it would probably hold. But then Ukraine would be less prepared for the next offensive. If they seriously want to do a meaningful Spring offensive to drive Russians back on some other front when the mud season is over, they'll withhold their newly formed NATO-equipped units as long as territorial defense isn't showing signs of uncontrollable collapse that could cascade. If Ukrainian Army goes all in on "Bakhmut stands" this can easily go into WW1 re-enactment territory that lasts years, and isn't really the best use of their better-equipped units. They have been savvy on these types of decisions before, hopefully they don't start to believe in their own hype, and keep following the plan of what is smart, instead of what is "glorious".
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Mar 5, 2023 22:00
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News Round-Up of the Day Office of the President of Ukraine quote:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/svit-dostatno-silnij-shob-pokarati-rosiyu-za-vijnu-i-mi-damo-81457 quote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/05/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-donetsk/ quote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-bakhmut/ Wall Street Journal quote:https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-wagner-troops-exhaust-ukrainian-forces-in-bakhmut-b58e726c Guardian quote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/05/ukraine-fight-for-bakhmut-continues-as-russian-forces-call-for-more-support
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Mar 5, 2023 22:19
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I can't help but wonder a bit if the shadow of Stalingrad hangs over Bahkmut - both Ukraine and Russia have spent generations marinating in Soviet myth-making about Stalingrad, and I imagine both governments are very aware of the symbolic value of a city spending ages under siege and not breaking. The possibility of Stalingrad 2.0 is probably influencing decision-making to some extent, even if only as something that needs to be argued against before deciding not to hold a given position. Actually for that matter I'm sorta curious - does anyone know what post-independence (and especially post 2014) Ukrainian high school textbooks have to say about Stalingrad? Is it still something that gets brought up in any way, and if so, what do they say about it?
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Mar 5, 2023 23:18
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are? Probing attacks and infiltration tactics is pretty standard strategies to try if you want to displace a dug in defensive line and you can't just blow them up or otherwise make them leave. Russia is also outshooting Ukraine like 5:1, and artillery is by far the biggest killer in war. The idea of Wagner sending "human waves" are probably a side product of these strategies being high risk for the individual soldiers (especially for those lacking training) and the fact that you always want to attack with local numerical superiority. The defenders are also usually quite spread out due that being an effective way to minimize casualties from enemy artillery. For example, a 6 man TDF squad manning a 200 meter wide trench line get shelled, they go out of their dugouts after the shelling stops and meet 18 Wagner soldiers, half of which have crawled up into risky flanking positions. They beat them off without much trouble, killing 2 Wagner soldiers that took up risky flanking positions on them. The exact same thing happens 2 days later, but now the shelling takes out 3 defenders. And now the TDF guys take out 3 exposed flankers, but retreat since they can't hold that big trench against that force this time. Because they just lost too much manpower since lady luck more consistently favors the side which throws more shells down range.
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Mar 5, 2023 23:55
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HonorableTB posted:I don't think Kadyrov's poisoning is outlandish anymore. MSN has picked up the story This seems like kind of a big deal, not just the effects on the Ukraine war if he dies, what will happen to Chechnya?
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Mar 6, 2023 00:23
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khwarezm posted:This seems like kind of a big deal, not just the effects on the Ukraine war if he dies, what will happen to Chechnya? It's a repost of a tabloid.
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Mar 6, 2023 00:24
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Thread favorite Michael Kofman getting in on the Bakhmut analysis, didn't realize he had visited last week. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1632500589769752576?cxt=HHwWgIC8zeKo56ctAAAA Seems like the fighting and attrition isn't as lopsided towards the Ukrainians and there's fear of losing offensive potential from holding the city. For a place that's supposed to favor the defenders, that's not really a favorable sign. Noel is also getting in on the mapping updates: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1632500044745121792 Thread reader version, potential  due to embedded video that I didn't check outhttps://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1632500014839656448.html
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Mar 6, 2023 00:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It's a repost of a tabloid. quote:A Russian general was poisoned by a letter laced with an unknown toxin, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said in a Telegram post on Monday. Kadyrov, who is also a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said his top general in Ukraine has been poisoned after handling a letter that was sent to him on February 8.
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Mar 6, 2023 00:46
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Anyway I'm kind of curious regardless of how important Kadyrov is holding down the fort for Putin in Chechnya, would there a possibility of things kicking off there again without him?
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Mar 6, 2023 00:50
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I can't imagine what those soldiers at Bakhmut are going through. They should have been withdrawn days ago, I hope they can fight their way out and aren't wasted in some bullshit last stand. Live to fight another day, doubly so if the elite units are engaged. Makes me feel that every NATO country should switch to war production mode, Give the Ukies everything they need. Tanks, SPG's, Arty ammo, whatever.
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Mar 6, 2023 00:50
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khwarezm posted:Anyway I'm kind of curious regardless of how important Kadyrov is holding down the fort for Putin in Chechnya, would there a possibility of things kicking off there again without him? He’s easily at least the third most influential governor of Russia’s subjects, but that doesn’t mean a superjihad from hell if only someone was to get him. Going further though I would suggest the main EE politics thread, though.
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Mar 6, 2023 01:25
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