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Which reserve force exactly are they withholding?
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Mar 7, 2023 00:32
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Which reserve force exactly are they withholding? There's obviously no real way to prove it, but in theory you would keep a reserve number of most things in the 0.01% chance that *randomly points at map* Kenya decides to invade. It's probably not a lot, or even a moderate amount. Someone in either this or another thread put it really well where it's difficult for a country like Russia to every really completely run out of things like artillery shells and missiles, but you can definitely reach a point where you tipping back and forth between your stockpile being exhausted and then being somewhat restocked as you manufacture more. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 00:36
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Which reserve force exactly are they withholding? I'm talking about their blunder not fully mobilizing at the beginning of the war.
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Mar 7, 2023 00:38
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Which reserve force exactly are they withholding? If we are still talking about the various cruise and ballistic missiles Russia has then no doubt they keep a certain percentage in reserve to arm with nuclear warheads if WW3 happened.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:07
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Charliegrs posted:If we are still talking about the various cruise and ballistic missiles Russia has then no doubt they keep a certain percentage in reserve to arm with nuclear warheads if WW3 happened. There's been evidence of some of those very missiles being used to launch conventional warheads a few months ago. They could tell the missiles were originally for nukes cause they were some of the originally nuclear-armed missiles Ukraine returned to Russia back in the 90's. So they've literally reduced their strategic launch stockpile somewhat to wage this war. Probably not significantly, but that does give credence to the idea that Russia has to first produce any precision munitions it wants to use at this point.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:18
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mrfart posted:In other news: Is Rheinmetall really gonna build a factory in Ukraine to build the KF51? Or is this a a way to tell the German government to hurry up and/or be more lenient with all the permits and red tape? Anything involving Rheinmetall is really complicated now. The short version of a complex story is that Germany is going to start replacing the Leo 2 with something in the next decade or so, and Rheinmetall wanted to have a large part in that contract (MGCS). Only, Germany seems to want to do a joint tank development project with France, and when the workshares of that were revealed, a lot of the stuff Rheinmetall wanted to be a part of ended up on the French side of the contract, leaving them only scraps. If this comes to pass, it will be disastrous for Rheinmetall, because if both France and Germany replace their tanks with a joint design, that design will have the kind of production numbers that will make it cheaper and better for everyone else who's shopping for an european-made tank too. In the meantime, Rheinmetall has already spent a lot of their own money developing systems for a Leo 2 replacement, and would just be out of that money and out of the tank market for however many decades MGCS will serve. So Rheinmetall is in full-on panic mode looking for customers for their stuff. KF51 was a tech demonstrator of some of the poo poo they have developed, so they have something to point at when talking to politicians about how there are perfectly fine tanks at home, and to shop around for foreign sales interest. In any normal situation, I'd say that Rheinmetall setting up production lines in Ukraine is laughable, but given that both Rheinmetall really wants to make some kind of deal, and Ukraine might really want to buy something, who knows. Cpt_Obvious posted:My guess is that they've already hit all the precision/long range targets that they need. You do understand that this is laughable, right? Because the targets that they were spending hundreds of missiles on are still standing. They spent several months targeting energy infrastructure, and the power is still on. They found out that their missile forces were not capable of achieving the aims they set out for them. This was both because Ukraine was sent all that foreign AA, and (mostly) because it turns out that Russian cruise missiles are not very accurate. Most of the missiles that were not shot down, hit apartment buildings or empty parking lots. I don't think they intended to spend their expensive missiles that way.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:19
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Tuna-Fish posted:
Except, well, Malyshev Tank Factory + KMDB and Lviv Tank at least used to exist.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:31
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Orthanc6 posted:There's been evidence of some of those very missiles being used to launch conventional warheads a few months ago. They could tell the missiles were originally for nukes cause they were some of the originally nuclear-armed missiles Ukraine returned to Russia back in the 90's. That's not really a fair assumption make, they could have just as easily moved the warheads to a newer missile type, kept their stockpile the same, and refitted the old missile body with a convential war head.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:33
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Russia has been very judiciously firing waves of cruise missiles into cities whenever Putin is embarrassed when a heavy cruiser or bridge gets hit. Clearly all the relevant targets have already been reduced to rubble.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:33
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If Russia's cruise missiles campaign had achieved its objectives, it would 1) have achieved its objectives and 2) not led to its architect being removed from his post.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:52
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Cpt_Obvious posted:My guess is that they've already hit all the precision/long range targets that they need. They spent a lot of time and munitions attacking power infrastructure. At times, the power was out. But power infrastructure can be repaired, has professionals on standby to do so in general outside of wartime readiness, and, as opposed to tanks and special weapons, the private sector and civil sectors of neighboring countries have a lot of power equipment to offer as humanitarian aid.
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Mar 7, 2023 01:55
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I strongly doubt the campaign achieved much other than steeling Ukrainian resistance and reinforcing foreign opposition to the invasion.
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Mar 7, 2023 02:02
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The missile and drone strikes against Ukraine's infrastructure was the single biggest thing that got substantially heavier aid flowing to Ukraine
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Mar 7, 2023 02:07
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Missiles are really expensive, shells are cheap. There are plenty of situations where missiles are going to be useful, such as targeting key infrastructure that you can't normally reach, but you don't want to spend half a million dollars per missile when you could spend a few hundred bucks for a few shells. i would very much like to understand the sources of information you relied on, and the inferences you drew from them, to conclude that russia has hit all of the precision and long range targets it needs. the more you could elaborate on this, the better.
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Mar 7, 2023 02:09
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Way late.
Oracle fucked around with this message at 02:27 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 02:24
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Morrow posted:If Russia's cruise missiles campaign had achieved its objectives, it would 1) have achieved its objectives and 2) not led to its architect being removed from his post. to be fair he wasn't removed for incompetence (warcriming aside he was russia's most competent field commander), he was removed because he picked the wrong side in russia's ever-ongoing political dance for Putin's love (Prigozhin vs Shoigu) I mean, they literally replaced him with Gerasimov, competence clearly wasn't a factor in choosing his replacement Lum_ fucked around with this message at 02:34 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 02:32
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Round-Up of News of the Day Office of the President of Ukraine quote:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/okupant-ubivaye-za-sam-fakt-sho-mi-ukrayinci-za-odne-slovo-p-81473 Kyiv Independent quote:https://kyivindependent.com/national/brigade-that-spent-2-months-in-bakhmut-it-was-becoming-harder-each-week quote:https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected Washington Post quote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/06/bakhmut-wagner-mercenaries-russia-ukraine/
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Mar 7, 2023 02:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Which reserve force exactly are they withholding? It's probable that they are keeping a stock for a situation where they want to keep Ukrainian air defenses busy or try to hit some targets of opportunity. But how many missiles it would be, and how many new ones are they building per week, is unknown.
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Mar 7, 2023 04:26
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fizzy posted:Office of the President of Ukraine It appears that the decision has been made to say in Bakhmut. CNN's NATO sources say that AFU are trading at least 1:5 with RuAF in Bakhmut, so I guess that is the point of it. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-06-23/h_265c92682c57b8228fbbf082fb3b6888
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Mar 7, 2023 09:54
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It appears that the decision has been made to say in Bakhmut. CNN's NATO sources say that AFU are trading at least 1:5 with RuAF in Bakhmut, so I guess that is the point of it. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-06-23/h_265c92682c57b8228fbbf082fb3b6888 Yeah, if the Kyiv Independent is posting articles like "Brigade that spent 2 months in Bakhmut: ‘It was becoming harder each week" and "Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: ‘Our troops are not being protected’", with anecdotes like "They say that Russian artillery, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers are often allowed to strike Ukrainian positions for hours or days without being shut down by Ukrainian heavy weapons. Some complained of poor coordination and situational awareness, allowing this to happen or making it even worse", then the carnage on the Russian side (at 5 times worse casualties) must be an absolute and utter hell-scape.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It appears that the decision has been made to say in Bakhmut. CNN's NATO sources say that AFU are trading at least 1:5 with RuAF in Bakhmut, so I guess that is the point of it. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-06-23/h_265c92682c57b8228fbbf082fb3b6888 That appears to indicate that Russia lost 5x as many troops over the course of the whole battle, but that ratio may no longer hold true on a day-to-day basis now?
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Mar 7, 2023 10:03
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Deltasquid posted:That appears to indicate that Russia lost 5x as many troops over the course of the whole battle, but that ratio may no longer hold true on a day-to-day basis now? That's where I'm at, I'm very curious to see something like a weekly losses' ratio plot that distinguishes different Russian formations - RuAF, Wagner, "LDNR", volunteer battalions, and so on. I know I will never see it, or at least no until history books of the 2030s, but it would be quite illuminating here, I reckon.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:05
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With Prigozhin complaining that all the gains in and around Bakhmut will be lost if Moscow does not start supplying Wagner properly, it does appear they are not as close to taking it as they keep reporting. However it does seem like Ukraine is using Bakhmut in order to fix the Russians in place (I would not want to be running reinforcements/supplies down that lone highway), but I doubt it will hold until mud season is over and Ukraine can employ their new tanks/armor and other recently donated munitions and in sufficient numbers. According to Peter Zeihan, Ukraine needs to trade at a 1:9+ ratio (not just in Bakhmut) in order to effectively maintain their own force structure while depleting the Russians. That is going to be a tough trade to upkeep if his assessments are correct.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:11
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Dick Ripple posted:According to Peter Zeihan, Ukraine needs to trade at a 1:9+ ratio (not just in Bakhmut) in order to effectively maintain their own force structure while depleting the Russians. That is going to be a tough trade to upkeep if his assessments are correct. While I'm not sure who Zeihan is, the most bullish claims even Ukrainian leadership is producing peak at 1:7 (Danilov, which means it's virtually guaranteed to be bullshit).
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Mar 7, 2023 10:18
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Peter Zeihan is an ex-STRATFOR guy who knows his stuff but has perhaps eccentric views on geographic/economic determinism. I would not use him as a primary or sole source. Here's him speaking on Joe Rogan (yes I know it's Joe Rogan, it's a decent interview): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9tnmdi6iFk. He lacks the spec knowledge of someone like Kofman or the recent detailed research people like Watling have been doing, but I think this clip contains a reasonable fair minded explanation of the Russian strategic mindset for someone coming at this topic fresh. On power supplies this release seems to be the latest: https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/895771.html. TLDR: things got quite bad at points in the Winter, but the infrastructure is fundamentally intact and they're working towards further decentralisation and resilience. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 10:48 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 10:45
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Here is a better and more recent talk with Zeihan on Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ab24tDK9pV0 The other guest (Canadian guy who has lived in Ukraine for 30+ years) had some interesting takes as well.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:49
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cinci zoo sniper posted:While I'm not sure who Zeihan is, the most bullish claims even Ukrainian leadership is producing peak at 1:7 (Danilov, which means it's virtually guaranteed to be bullshit). He's basically a random talking head with no claim to special knowledge of the Ukraine war.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:56
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Paladinus posted:Haven't seen anything like that. Both Russia and Lukashenko are still trying to come up with a narrative that is the least embarrassing for them, and both have things they would like to not acknowledge. For Lukashenko it's showing that opposition partisans can operate with impunity for months, perform what amounts to a terroristic act, and swiftly escape abroad. For Russia, it's showing that half a dozen drones can successfully decommission a plane that costs more than annual military aid to Ukraine of some smaller countries. Synthesis of these two concerns will probably be something like Ukrainian agents in collaboration with local terrorists attempted to blow up a plane, failed, and are now apprehended. Just going to quote myself re the drone attack on the A-50 in Belarus. Today Lukashenko pretty much said what I predicted, minus local terrorists, because that would still be conceding that the opposition are capable of domestic direct action. The apprehended 'terrorist' is exactly the guy ByPol said the police were looking for and who they said had no connection to the attack. The guy also just happens to be an IT specialist, according to Lukashenko, which can only be relevant because IT specialists participated in protests in 2020 in huge numbers. Lukashenko also said that those weren't regular drones like you can clearly tell from the videos, but some super special drones that were secretly used in Ukraine before, so that also accounts for Russia's concern that the attack appeared too simple to execute. E: Spoke too soon. Apparently there were local terrorists, and around 20 were apprehended along with the main culprit. He was discovered at a small printing house on Minsk's outskirts with a bunch of extremist literature and opposition paraphernalia. Just the place to go and the things to have on you after a terrorist attack, clearly. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 11:59 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 11:51
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Paladinus posted:Just going to quote myself re the drone attack on the A-50 in Belarus. Today Lukashenko pretty much said what I predicted, minus local terrorists, because that would still be conceding that the opposition are capable of domestic direct action. The apprehended 'terrorist' is exactly the guy ByPol said the police were looking for and who they said had no connection to the attack. The guy also just happens to be an IT specialist, according to Lukashenko, which can only be relevant because IT specialists participated in protests in 2020 in huge numbers. Lukashenko also said that those weren't regular drones like you can clearly tell from the videos, but some super special drones that were secretly used in Ukraine before, so that also accounts for Russia's concern that the attack appeared too simple to execute. How many copies of Sims 3 did he have on him
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Mar 7, 2023 12:20
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Fragrag posted:How many copies of Sims 3 did he have on him They do need to print those international terrorist school framed diplomas somewhere, after all.
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Mar 7, 2023 12:28
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Dick Ripple posted:... I don't trust him and i find his talks shallow. edit: throwing no shade at yourself, just my own view of the lad. Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 13:07 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 13:04
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Dick Ripple posted:According to Peter Zeihan, Ukraine needs to trade at a 1:9+ ratio (not just in Bakhmut) in order to effectively maintain their own force structure while depleting the Russians. That is going to be a tough trade to upkeep if his assessments are correct. The Russian army does not have a mobilized manpower advantage over Ukraine. They have an advantage in hardware and ammunition. Which is why Ukraine is so focused on these defensive battles - their light infantry can fix the Russian hardware and destroy it with the (in comparison) limited artillery they have.
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Mar 7, 2023 13:22
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DTurtle posted:1:9 is an insane ratio. I would be interested to know where that number comes from. Peter Zeihans rear end in a top hat, where the rest of his facts are plucked from. To be clear he's a knowledgeable guy who clearly knows what he's talking about, but hes also very aware that unless he gives something meaty to chew in in his talks he wont stand out. In that talk he is ABSOLUTELY SURE that there will be a nuclear exchange at some point if x follows y in terms of world events etc. He gave this exact speech this time last year, he's just moved the goal posts back a year because he was incorrect.
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Mar 7, 2023 13:47
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Paladinus posted:He was discovered at a small printing house on Minsk's outskirts with a bunch of extremist literature and opposition paraphernalia. Are there specific details on what/where this shop was?
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Mar 7, 2023 14:24
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Zeihan's biggest strength seems to be a broad understanding of demographic analysis and global industrial supply chains, and I have learned some insights from him when he talks about those fields. But I feel leery about trusting what he says on other topics, he's just got the air of a charlatan about him when he branches out past his wheelhouse
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Mar 7, 2023 14:35
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Dick Ripple posted:With Prigozhin complaining that all the gains in and around Bakhmut will be lost if Moscow does not start supplying Wagner properly Of course, it's worth noting that just because Prigozhin claims that everything will be lost if Prigozhin's personal special troops don't get all the toys he wants, doesn't mean that's actually true. The man very much has angles to play here in his messaging.
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Mar 7, 2023 15:09
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Vaginaface posted:Are there specific details on what/where this shop was? It was in Borovlyany, apparently, but nothing else is known for now. Borovlyany is kind of an upper class suburb, again, that just so happens to be full of people active during 2020 protests. Lukashenko's ordered to make sure that all details are disclosed by KGB at once to state media, so we'll know more soon enough.
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Mar 7, 2023 15:27
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Tomn posted:Of course, it's worth noting that just because Prigozhin claims that everything will be lost if Prigozhin's personal special troops don't get all the toys he wants, doesn't mean that's actually true. The man very much has angles to play here in his messaging. Yeah, I really wouldn't read too much into the messaging. He sounds like every project manager everywhere who has a pet project and needs to compete for supplies/people.
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Mar 7, 2023 16:18
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html Pro-Ukranian freelancers allegedly responsible for the Nordstream explosions now per NYT? Or at least suggested as such. Interesting.
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Mar 7, 2023 16:52
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That seems like an odd thing for a group of freelancers to be able to do, but maybe there are some really opinionated hobby divers?
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Mar 7, 2023 16:59
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