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So something I'm curious about, if Russia loses, what happens to it? I'm not specifically asking in the sense of "Putin trips out a window", but more like on the international scene? It's already something of a pariah state now, but then what when it's all over? It's got nukes, and enough raw resources that other nations actually give a poo poo, unlike say, N.Korea. How does the world actually deal with Russia after all this is over? I guess what I'm saying is, how do you force reparations on a nuclear power?
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Mar 10, 2023 00:21
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Rorac posted:So something I'm curious about, if Russia loses, what happens to it? I'm not specifically asking in the sense of "Putin trips out a window", but more like on the international scene? It's already something of a pariah state now, but then what when it's all over? It's got nukes, and enough raw resources that other nations actually give a poo poo, unlike say, N.Korea. How does the world actually deal with Russia after all this is over? I guess what I'm saying is, how do you force reparations on a nuclear power? You can't really force reparations but if they commit to being a pariah you can keep a lot of economic doors closed. It's also an issue of how much time goes by, because while Russia is a major exporter of raw materials people who need that stuff can and will find suppliers elsewhere.
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Mar 10, 2023 00:26
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Rorac posted:So something I'm curious about, if Russia loses, what happens to it? I'm not specifically asking in the sense of "Putin trips out a window", but more like on the international scene? It's already something of a pariah state now, but then what when it's all over? It's got nukes, and enough raw resources that other nations actually give a poo poo, unlike say, N.Korea. How does the world actually deal with Russia after all this is over? I guess what I'm saying is, how do you force reparations on a nuclear power? I mean, they've already lost in that sense and you're looking at what happens already.
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Mar 10, 2023 00:34
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Rorac posted:So something I'm curious about, if Russia loses, what happens to it? I'm not specifically asking in the sense of "Putin trips out a window", but more like on the international scene? It's already something of a pariah state now, but then what when it's all over? It's got nukes, and enough raw resources that other nations actually give a poo poo, unlike say, N.Korea. How does the world actually deal with Russia after all this is over? I guess what I'm saying is, how do you force reparations on a nuclear power? Germany (and Japan) during World War 2 were much, much, much worse than anything Russia has done so far. Within a decade (Western) Germany was already quite far on the path toward normalcy/respectability. Of course this was helped by various extenuating factors. Step one for Russia would be to make extremely clear that something like the current war wouldn’t happen again. Voluntary reparations could be a part of that. So far I don’t see that happening as long as Putin and the current system of government stays in power. Otherwise, Russia will be cut off more and more from the western economies and see a rearmed NATO on its borders. DTurtle fucked around with this message at 00:51 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 00:41
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Part of the difficulty in figure out where they stand afterwards is that I'm not really sure if we have a good idea where they stand now, since it seems like would be really hard to get an honest opinion of how the average Russian views the war.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:12
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You can't really compare Russia to post-war Japan/Germany because Germany was effectively conquered and Japan forced to surrender by nuclear threat, they had no power to negotiate their path forward after the war. The war in Ukraine won't end that way, Russia isn't going to be conquered and they will at best withdraw entirely from Ukraine but will probably still proclaim "mission accomplished" to save face. They aren't going to accept responsibility for the atrocities they committed.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:30
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Rorac posted:I guess what I'm saying is, how do you force reparations on a nuclear power? You don’t.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:35
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Culture posting: https://mobile.twitter.com/ukr_arthistory/status/1633778024565833730 ...and a couple of weeks late (today = Feb 25th there) https://mobile.twitter.com/VlStarodubtsev/status/1629497795236225025 (Both dates based on Gregorian dates of birthday, not Julian ones).
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Mar 10, 2023 02:19
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Thank you for your replies to my question 
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Mar 10, 2023 02:24
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For today's edition of "what year is it?" German Panther's will be returning to the Eastern Front: https://www.businessinsider.com/german-arms-maker-rheinmetall-offers-ukraine-new-panther-kf51-tank-2023-3 Tank is built on a Leopard 2A4 hull with a new turret wielding a 130mm autoloading gun. Magazine at the back of the turret. Which sounds like a best of both worlds option considering Ukraine is both used to autoloaders and being trained to drive Leopards.
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Mar 10, 2023 02:42
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Orthanc6 posted:For today's edition of "what year is it?" German Panther's will be returning to the Eastern Front: They might be, as the article points out it's a brand new and untested system and Ukraine hasn't agreed to take any yet.
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Mar 10, 2023 02:46
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Telsa Cola posted:They might be, as the article points out it's a brand new and untested system and Ukraine hasn't agreed to take any yet. How would they even find the money to take it?
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Mar 10, 2023 03:14
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Orthanc6 posted:For today's edition of "what year is it?" German Panther's will be returning to the Eastern Front:
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Mar 10, 2023 03:53
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chupacabraTERROR posted:I've been wondering about this as well. I'd imagine this issue is a result of the US not moving to a "total war" dynamic like it did in WW2. I don't see any Ford or GM factories building Javelins (yet). Surely production during WW2, without total war industrial mobilization, would have been subpar too. I'm not sure ww2 style production is possible in a modern context. In ww2 a furniture factory could turn around and make airframes for combat aircraft, a tractor factory could make tank chassis. A modern furniture factory can't make an f35 airframe, a modern tractor factory can't make an Abrams chassis. Even if they could those platforms need a bunch of subsystems that absolutely can't be produced outside of specialist contexts. Artillery shells and bullets are probably among the only things simple enough you could quickly scale up production of.
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Mar 10, 2023 04:12
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Given the will and cash, EU+US can probably do p much anything. Politics and capital will get in the way, but enough gas on the pedal and the West should easily be able to out muscle Russia in a way Putin can't match. Just depends if they choose to pick the fight and actually do it.
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Mar 10, 2023 04:28
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Random Integer posted:I'm not sure ww2 style production is possible in a modern context. In ww2 a furniture factory could turn around and make airframes for combat aircraft, a tractor factory could make tank chassis. A modern furniture factory can't make an f35 airframe, a modern tractor factory can't make an Abrams chassis. Even if they could those platforms need a bunch of subsystems that absolutely can't be produced outside of specialist contexts. Artillery shells and bullets are probably among the only things simple enough you could quickly scale up production of. The tooling alone for any kind of modern defense equipment production is often a custom one-off project for a given facility. Even that takes a long time, a lot of money and a lot of expertise that often goes on to retire/die after its completed.
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Mar 10, 2023 04:30
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Random Integer posted:I'm not sure ww2 style production is possible in a modern context. If it has a computer chip in it that isn't already in mass production, you're basically out of luck given the months and months it takes to get the first chip back from a fab even if they start on it that same day. If the government isn't going to order the fab to drop what they're doing and put you at the front of the queue, you could easily wait a year or more for just a batch of ICs.
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Mar 10, 2023 04:38
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converting an average factory into making battle tanks or jet fighters might not be practical these days, for but 155mm artillery shells? :cmonson: Absolutely.
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Mar 10, 2023 04:41
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saratoga posted:If it has a computer chip in it that isn't already in mass production, you're basically out of luck given the months and months it takes to get the first chip back from a fab even if they start on it that same day. If the government isn't going to order the fab to drop what they're doing and put you at the front of the queue, you could easily wait a year or more for just a batch of ICs. However the US Government will pay a massive amount of money to reproduce that chip in an FPGA and yank all FPGA production from Xilinx.
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Mar 10, 2023 05:47
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Orthanc6 posted:For today's edition of "what year is it?" German Panther's will be returning to the Eastern Front: I wish people would take Rheinmetall ad copy less seriously. That company has been making one grandiose announcement after another that is repeated as gospel in Anglo media. Rheinmetall doesn't have a tank, it has a prototype, and it sees an opportunity to profit from a country that may currently have a lax threshold for spending money on potential arms. The best course of action for Ukraine is "thanks, we are considering it" and buying something that has a realistic chance of materialising without billions in cost overruns.
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Mar 10, 2023 08:27
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The KF31/41 Lynx platform is really struggling to attract sales, hence the new! options! Rheinmetall is doing so well that Germany has reportedly approached Australia to pay us $3 billion to use our local production line to build the Boxer CRV we are license building from Rheinmetall. Just as soon as production starts up again, because the first 12 vehicles have so many technical issues they'll never be able to carry ATGMs, and the program was set back by 2 years.
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Mar 10, 2023 08:46
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Rorac posted:So something I'm curious about, if Russia loses, what happens to it? I'm not specifically asking in the sense of "Putin trips out a window", but more like on the international scene? It's already something of a pariah state now, but then what when it's all over? It's got nukes, and enough raw resources that other nations actually give a poo poo, unlike say, N.Korea. How does the world actually deal with Russia after all this is over? I guess what I'm saying is, how do you force reparations on a nuclear power? There was a good discussion on this a few months ago, and one of the things that came up was the book How Wars End - https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691140605/how-wars-end
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Mar 10, 2023 09:01
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Random Integer posted:I'm not sure ww2 style production is possible in a modern context. In ww2 a furniture factory could turn around and make airframes for combat aircraft, a tractor factory could make tank chassis. A modern furniture factory can't make an f35 airframe, a modern tractor factory can't make an Abrams chassis. Even if they could those platforms need a bunch of subsystems that absolutely can't be produced outside of specialist contexts. Artillery shells and bullets are probably among the only things simple enough you could quickly scale up production of. Artillery shells is another thing but also as you point out they're easier to make. I don't think that's been posted here but Trump revealed how he'd solve the war. First of all it would've never happened on his watch because Putin was afraid, but if it did... quote:“And, under Trump, you know what they took over? They took nothing, Russia. First time, first president in a long time. He [Putin] understood. He would have never done it.” I don't know if that's the kind of deal where we'd need help from The Donald though.
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Mar 10, 2023 09:49
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spankmeister posted:They're even buying in to the bio lab bullshit. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 10, 2023 10:43
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Kraftwerk posted:How would they even find the money to take it? KF51 is a copium project after the MGCS design contracts shook out to significantly favour the French, and such it's only going to be real when we see a battalion of Panthers rolling somewhere. That said, money for western weapons is not really the difficult part here – even fancy tanks are like 10 million a piece, which means that the balance of the European Peace Facility after the presumed artillery deal would easily cover 100+ modern tanks. The West has infinite money, especially for generating local jobs. The problem is that European army stocks and military industrial base were, as derided as they were before even, in a much worse state than everyone had thought.
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Mar 10, 2023 11:02
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More evidence that Russia is running out of money https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-09/hungary-needs-to-think-hard-about-future-russia-relations-orban Hungary Needs to Think Hard About Future Russia Relations, Orban Says Hungary may need to re-think its cozy relationship with Russia in the future due to shifting geopolitical realities in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. While it’s in Hungary’s interest to maintain ties to Russia, especially due to its energy reliance, Europe’s relations with Moscow may not be rebuilt following the conclusion of the war, forcing Hungary to also adjust, Orban said at an economic forum in Budapest on Thursday. “I understand the need to rebuild Russian-European relations after the war but that’s far from realistic,” Orban said. “That’s why Hungary’s foreign and economic policy need to think hard about what sort of relations we can establish and maintain with Russia in the next 10 to 15 years.”
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Mar 10, 2023 11:17
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Somaen posted:More evidence that Russia is running out of money Speaking of, what's the current situation with the nuclear power plants in Hungary? I thought they relied on a substantial Russian loan to finance them, haven't the sanctions put a dent in that plan? Can the Russian state or banks just provide the loans and receive the interests because the loan was granted before the sanctions entered into force? On the basis of a quick Google search it seems they're still going ahead as of December 2022: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63964744
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Mar 10, 2023 12:02
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Hungary is doing everything it can to prevent sanctions on the russian state nuclear company building those things so I'm guessing they're putting everything they have to get them completed and operational including the financial workarounds
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Mar 10, 2023 12:14
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Popete posted:You can't really compare Russia to post-war Japan/Germany because Germany was effectively conquered and Japan forced to surrender by nuclear threat, they had no power to negotiate their path forward after the war. In that sense there's a bigger chance it will resemble more a post-WWI Germany than a WWII one. A lot of moping nationalist who feel they were cheated out of a victory. Although, as others pointed out, it's very unlikely anybody will be able to make Russia pay reparations like Germany.
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Mar 10, 2023 12:51
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Yet another regular FT briefing on the happenings of the war. Nothing new if you've been following the thread or some semblance of regular reporting elsewhere, but what I found notable was Kofman being quoted about “overstated argument of diminished counter-offensive potential” in the context of staying in Bakhmut, and a western estimate of 20-30k Russian casualties (unspecified, but reads like killed specifically) in the past 6 months, Wagner predominantly.
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Mar 10, 2023 13:11
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Finnish papers report that exports of goods to Kyrgyzstan jumped over 800% last year. Exports to Kazakhstan, which were larger to start with, grew by 143%. Some of this is probably due to genuinely looking for new markets, but I think it's quite obvious what is going on.
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Mar 10, 2023 13:30
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d64 posted:Finnish papers report that exports of goods to Kyrgyzstan jumped over 800% last year. Exports to Kazakhstan, which were larger to start with, grew by 143%. Some of this is probably due to genuinely looking for new markets, but I think it's quite obvious what is going on. Yep. I feel that it's finally getting too obvious for everyone, so we'll be spending this year on fixing it. Which sucks, in that the EU keeps doing this surprised Pikachu poo poo first about paying quadrillions for oil, and then exporting 100 million PS5 consoles to Uzbekistan, exaggeration, and I'm nowhere near naive enough to believe that this all is wholly by surprise, but getting there eventually will still be better than just leaving it to be business as usual.
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Mar 10, 2023 13:35
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mrfart posted:In that sense there's a bigger chance it will resemble more a post-WWI Germany than a WWII one. One of the things my russian expat friends lament most, and the thing they fear most about returning, is that the schools have all been converted into ultra nationalist factories, aimed at poisoning the next generation. One friend said, "I'm not worried about me, but I can't take my daughter back there."
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Mar 10, 2023 14:25
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There's a decent article Carnegie put out on how the elites are worrying about the shape of Russia in 2023: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89212Quoting from the last part but read the whole thing, it's 5 mins of your life posted:Waiting for repression
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Mar 10, 2023 14:35
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Comte de Saint-Germain posted:One of the things my russian expat friends lament most, and the thing they fear most about returning, is that the schools have all been converted into ultra nationalist factories, aimed at poisoning the next generation. One friend said, "I'm not worried about me, but I can't take my daughter back there." Yeah my kids were supposed to be raised partially in Russia. The war turned that into a hard "lmao no" and my wiife from "expat" into "immigrant," for what it's worth. Russian passports were supposed to be a good thing. Now, lol, we're importing relatives to draft dodge them.
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Mar 10, 2023 14:38
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Yeah my kids were supposed to be raised partially in Russia. The war turned that into a hard "lmao no" and my wiife from "expat" into "immigrant," for what it's worth. Russian passports were supposed to be a good thing. Now, lol, we're importing relatives to draft dodge them. Perhaps if the alternative is central asian passports or something. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 10, 2023 14:42
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Russian passports were supposed to be a good thing In which universe.
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Mar 10, 2023 14:43
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mobby_6kl posted:When was this ever the case. Well yeah all four of us do in fact have central asian passports so gently caress you I guess
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Mar 10, 2023 14:50
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karthun posted:However the US Government will pay a massive amount of money to reproduce that chip in an FPGA and yank all FPGA production from Xilinx. Only an extraordinarily small fraction of defense-related chips could be replaced with an FPGA, and even for those that can the lead times on FPGAs are even longer due to more complex manufacturing and packaging requirements. Rather than an FPGA, if it's that important you'd redesign the weapon to use chips you could source from civilian applications, similar to Russia and dishwasher ICs.
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Mar 10, 2023 14:55
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d64 posted:Finnish papers report that exports of goods to Kyrgyzstan jumped over 800% last year. Exports to Kazakhstan, which were larger to start with, grew by 143%. Some of this is probably due to genuinely looking for new markets, but I think it's quite obvious what is going on. Reminds me of the mysterious surge in exports from Belarus to Russia every time Russia embarks on foreign adventures. 
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