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AFAIK there's no proof they ever managed to hit the monument
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Mar 14, 2023 19:15
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https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/pid-golovuvannyam-prezidenta-vidbulosya-zasidannya-stavki-ve-81593 Sounds like Ukrainians are committed to holding Bakhmut. Meanwhile there's evidence the Russians have made it across the river and taken the AZOM plant https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1635588399959506945?cxt=HHwWgoCwpf2-47ItAAAA https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1635613589531770880?cxt=HHwWgIC-nZr57rItAAAA Does anybody in this thread have an opinion on twitter posts like these in this thread? I'm not sure if we're pushing for more long form articles.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:30
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Payndz posted:Seems to me that deliberately letting your expensive and all but irreplaceable jet get carved up by a whirling blade is something to be avoided, but I'm not a big- brained Russian fighter jock. Eh, the props aren't going to cut up much on that jet. The reports say the Su-27 clipped the props of the drone and it forced the USAF operator to send it into the water because they had no power after the collision. The comedy option would have been debris from the broken props flying into one of the Su-27's nacelles. Probably wouldn't mess up too much but maybe cause one engine to flame-out.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:33
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The fuel dumping kinda makes sense I guess, I'm sure that a turbine wouldn't take kindly to the incoming air suddenly being flammable. But how the hell did they manage to hit the propeller with their aircraft? Just look at the thing:  The propeller of that drone is at the rear and is considerably smaller than the three stabilizers immediately in front of it. You'd practically have to ram it from the rear.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:34
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Comedy option: the SU-27 pilot was imitating Maverick from the beginning of the first Top Gun movie and clipped the propeller with his own stabilizer.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:41
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WarpedLichen posted:Does anybody in this thread have an opinion on twitter posts like these in this thread? I'm not sure if we're pushing for more long form articles. I think they're fine, when it's sound information, and you're bringing it in purposefully. The [as yet unannounced] [passive] push will be aimed at more thoughtful sharing/consumption, rather than at filtering sources based on the minimum word count or some such. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Mar 14, 2023 |
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Mar 14, 2023 19:50
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WarpedLichen posted:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/pid-golovuvannyam-prezidenta-vidbulosya-zasidannya-stavki-ve-81593 I really hope the Ukrainians know what they're doing there because it sounds like staying there has gone way past the point of usefulness.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:52
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If the Russian air force keeps doing this and manages to down one of their own planes, would that count as the first air-to-air kill by an unmanned aircraft? Jokes aside, I don't think anything will come of this. The cost of a drone is trivial compared to the intelligence it provides. Heck, it's probably useful to force the Russian air force to put more hours on airframes they can't replace.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:I really hope the Ukrainians know what they're doing there because it sounds like staying there has gone way past the point of usefulness. The official line as of today is “standing strong”. Going by maps, and by how similar situations played out last year, we're probably for at least of week of random poo poo reported every day, until it'll crystallize.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:55
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cochise posted:Eh, the props aren't going to cut up much on that jet. The reports say the Su-27 clipped the props of the drone and it forced the USAF operator to send it into the water because they had no power after the collision. if the pilot used the nose cone to nudge the prop, I guarantee he basically ruined the plane. The nose-cone contains one of the most important part and most expensive part of the plane, the radar array. And that poo poo is extremely sensitive, and bashing it with a metal arm spinning a couple hundred mphs is guaranteed to have damaged it. Unless they can replace, the only thing that plane is good for is spare parts.
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Mar 14, 2023 20:14
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Back Hack posted:if the pilot used the nose cone to nudge the prop, I guarantee he basically ruined the plane. The nose-cone contains one of the most important part and most expensive part of the plane, the radar array. And that poo poo is extremely sensitive, and bashing it with a metal arm spinning a couple hundred mphs is guaranteed to have damaged it. I forgot I should always assume the dumbest possible poo poo ever in regards to the Russian military 
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Mar 14, 2023 20:22
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Back Hack posted:if the pilot used the nose cone to nudge the prop, I guarantee he basically ruined the plane. The nose-cone contains one of the most important part and most expensive part of the plane, the radar array. And that poo poo is extremely sensitive, and bashing it with a metal arm spinning a couple hundred mphs is guaranteed to have damaged it. My personal dumb speculation is that it seems very unlikely for it to be a nose strike, like some sort of wing strike is what I was thinking.
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Mar 14, 2023 20:24
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Moon Slayer posted:Yeah these sort of incidents have been going on since people first started using airplanes for reconnaissance -- hell, French and German pilots would whip out pistols and shoot at each other before they figured out how to strap machine guns to planes* -- but usually they are between manned aircraft. The intercepting planes fly erratically/recklessly to try and force the observation plane off course because the pilots want to avoid a collision so they don't die. That's what that Chinese interceptor was doing when it clipped the American P-3. Doing it on a drone seems ... less effective. you're not wrong. the first air to air disablement was a french biplane crew firing a rifle at a german plane which was damaged and forced to land. in fact the first air to air kill was a russian pilot biplane pilot ramming an austrian two seater. both crews were killed https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/first-aerial-combat-victory-180952933/
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Mar 14, 2023 20:30
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WarpedLichen posted:My personal dumb speculation is that it seems very unlikely for it to be a nose strike, like some sort of wing strike is what I was thinking. Looking at the sizes and layouts of the two aircraft it appears to me that if you were to try to bring the cockpit of the SU-27 up next to the camera ball on the bottom of the Reaper that would put the vertical stabilizer of the SU-27 right where the prop is.
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Mar 14, 2023 20:43
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WarpedLichen posted:My personal dumb speculation is that it seems very unlikely for it to be a nose strike, like some sort of wing strike is what I was thinking. All we have is the US MoD account of the event, and it's short on details. I don't think it can be taken as certain that there was physical contact. If there was then it can't have been intentional, no jet pilot wants to risk having to eject over the sea just to ram a loving drone when some debris goes to intake. Accidental collision is a possibility, but then it would have hit so much more than just prop that it's a strange detail to single out. I think a more plausible scenario would be that they flew just close enough that by then changing course and hitting full thrust they could have engine blasted some components out of action - like a propeller, maybe? Or: pics or it didn't happen 
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Mar 14, 2023 20:46
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I like the idea that a russian pilot was dumb enough to try to intimidate a drone by flying his plane real close to it, and then also dumb enough to misjudge and clip the drat thing. I just like it cause it's funny tho.
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Mar 14, 2023 20:57
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Yeah that's exactly how I've been imagining it and how I will continue to imagine it until and probably after presented with an account of what actually happened.
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Mar 14, 2023 20:59
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I hope you guys realize how big an MQ-9 is. It’s comparable in size to a Warthog.
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Mar 14, 2023 21:07
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Boris Galerkin posted:I hope you guys realize how big an MQ-9 is. It’s comparable in size to a Warthog. I didn't realize they were that big, to be honest.
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Mar 14, 2023 21:11
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Moon Slayer posted:*I think I read that somewhere but I might have just made it up because it sounds cool.
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Mar 14, 2023 21:20
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They also sometimes threw bricks at each others' planes
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Mar 14, 2023 21:25
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New War on the Rocks podcast https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/how-to-think-about-bakhmut-and-a-ukrainian-spring-offensive/ A lot of stuff Kofman had already said in the past but some new stuff I haven't heard before: -US should do more on the training aspect -Russian offense is piecemeal and split across too many fronts to be effective -Ukraine force structure is very good on the defense -Russian success in Bakhmut is also because of well equipped and well supported assaults by Wagner troops on the flanks -Ukraine is building 3 NEW army corps of mechanized brigades for the offensive -Imagines Ukrainian offensive to look more like what happened in Kherson - more grind
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Mar 14, 2023 22:11
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Ynglaur posted:If the Russian air force keeps doing this and manages to down one of their own planes, would that count as the first air-to-air kill by an unmanned aircraft? Only thing I think will come of this is getting resistant republicans on board for more aid to Ukraine. Russia is so loving stupid for pulling this off when they are in no position to do so
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Mar 14, 2023 22:40
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Soggy Muffin posted:Only thing I think will come of this is getting resistant republicans on board for more aid to Ukraine. Russia is so loving stupid for pulling this off when they are in no position to do so I mean. This is very similar to the opening gambit of the USSR into Finland during WW2. Only, Finland didn't have half of the first world looking to arm them. Actually, I was wondering. Any numbers on the volunteer presence among the Ukrainian defenses?
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Mar 14, 2023 23:00
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AlternateNu posted:I mean. This is very similar to the opening gambit of the USSR into Finland during WW2. Only, Finland didn't have half of the first world looking to arm them. I think this post article says 1000 - 3000 active on January 2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/18/foreign-fighters-war-ukraine-volunteers/ Which is far below the 20000 who volunteered back in March 2022. https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-07-22/h_dc1526f075096e276baec8fa7632f300 There have been a lot of stories about poor treatment and scandals though.
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Mar 14, 2023 23:09
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From what I recall Ukraine always had a bit of an issue with “How exactly do we integrate a bunch of soldiers from a wide variety of militaries, doctrines, ranks and languages into our own forces in any coherent way, especially since there’s a bit of self-selection bias in that anyone willing to fight another country’s war has a higher than average chance of having what might be politely termed “personality issues” of one stripe or another?”
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Mar 14, 2023 23:31
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Torrannor posted:I mean, yes? That's true, and they are. Nice of you to make this point. Yeah. I wasn’t making it to argue otherwise.
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Mar 14, 2023 23:59
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WarpedLichen posted:
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Mar 15, 2023 01:42
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Charlz Guybon posted:These two don't seem compatible. If the Ukranians add three new well equipped army corps to the line and launch an offensive with them, they should split the line wide open. You can break through the line but if there are reserves on hand you might only advance a few miles before you're stopped. This is essentially what happened in Kherson. Total rout would imply complete surprise that catches reserves out of place (so no one to plug the hole). That might happen, but not if they're going to attack towards Melitopol, since that is where the Russians are planning to defend.
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Mar 15, 2023 01:51
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Tomn posted:From what I recall Ukraine always had a bit of an issue with “How exactly do we integrate a bunch of soldiers from a wide variety of militaries, doctrines, ranks and languages into our own forces in any coherent way, especially since there’s a bit of self-selection bias in that anyone willing to fight another country’s war has a higher than average chance of having what might be politely termed “personality issues” of one stripe or another?” Ive heard that quite a few of the foreign volunteers early in the war were basically looking to recreate Call of Duty and completely poo poo their pants and left when it turned out they actual bullets and artillery shells were being lobbed at them.
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Mar 15, 2023 02:11
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saratoga posted:You can break through the line but if there are reserves on hand you might only advance a few miles before you're stopped. This is essentially what happened in Kherson. The point is an army corps is made up of several divisions and totals 20 to 60 thousand people. If the Ukrainians suddenly pulled out three of those, completely fresh and fully mechanised, then there aren't enough reserves in the Russian army to stop a force like that. 150k troops is more than either side had at the beginning of the conflict.
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Mar 15, 2023 02:34
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Charliegrs posted:Ive heard that quite a few of the foreign volunteers early in the war were basically looking to recreate Call of Duty and completely poo poo their pants and left when it turned out they actual bullets and artillery shells were being lobbed at them. Or were ex-US Army who noped out when faced with a battlefield where they didn't have a huge support fire advantage.
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Mar 15, 2023 02:39
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Tevery Best posted:The point is an army corps is made up of several divisions and totals 20 to 60 thousand people. If the Ukrainians suddenly pulled out three of those, completely fresh and fully mechanised, then there aren't enough reserves in the Russian army to stop a force like that. 150k troops is more than either side had at the beginning of the conflict. A lot of the promised equipment is arriving this spring or later, so fully mechanized is probably a stretch, at least in the spring. From the reference to Kherson, I think the assumption is that they'll be a much smaller mechanized force and a larger number of guys in pickup trucks.
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Mar 15, 2023 02:46
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https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1635778015631212544 Some documentation behind all the buzz about a Russian coup in Moldova, along the same lines as their strategic document for Belarus. Nothing particularly new in it beyond confirming that Russia had ambitions beyond Ukraine and that they're actively financing and coordinating protests in Moldova. EDIT: Also skimming, looks like the drone collision wasn't a careful nudge. Actually new info I think that suggests yes the Russians are really that incompetent. https://mobile.twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1635766881628876800 Morrow fucked around with this message at 04:12 on Mar 15, 2023 |
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Mar 15, 2023 04:07
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Charlz Guybon posted:These two don't seem compatible. If the Ukranians add three new well equipped army corps to the line and launch an offensive with them, they should split the line wide open. It depends on how it's led and organised. Problem is, Ukraine doesn't have too many officers with the necessary training and experience for mobile offensive operations with larger formations. (Neither does Russia, as we have seen from 40 mile column and generals getting killed in the front trying to clear the mess.) It has been reported that many of the older officers come from Red Army background and are more familiar with theories of assaulting through Fulda gap with tactical nukes and what not than with modern NATO compatible tactics. Shortage in leadership and could result in the same problems that Russia had a year back with inability to fully utilise their numbers. Hopefully they have been using this time well!
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Mar 15, 2023 04:59
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Morrow posted:EDIT: Also skimming, looks like the drone collision wasn't a careful nudge. Actually new info I think that suggests yes the Russians are really that incompetent. That might be true, but that explanation is also one you would give to de-escalate ("it was clearly a semi-accident") and to try to make the other side look incompetent ("lol they can’t fly plane good"). Certainly plausible but it also fits an agenda so neatly that it’s also the exact thing you would expect them to say.
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Mar 15, 2023 08:17
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Tevery Best posted:The point is an army corps is made up of several divisions and totals 20 to 60 thousand people. If the Ukrainians suddenly pulled out three of those, completely fresh and fully mechanised, then there aren't enough reserves in the Russian army to stop a force like that. 150k troops is more than either side had at the beginning of the conflict. This is not news information, we're talking about 3 x “ideally up to 20k people” here, to be more precise. More importantly, the Russian army has already shown what it looks like when you said tens of thousand of people over a few defended roads.
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Mar 15, 2023 10:54
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My point is it seems far more likely the article writer has no idea what they're talking about and wrote "corps" instead of something else.
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Mar 15, 2023 11:14
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Tevery Best posted:My point is it seems far more likely the article writer has no idea what they're talking about and wrote "corps" instead of something else. No, the author here is one of the most eminent analysts publicly commenting on this war. If you want something similar from someone else: March 6, Economist quote:General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top officer, hopes that he will eventually have three new army corps at his disposal, each with six brigades, and each comprising more than 20,000 men. December 15, Economist after interviewing Zaluzhnyy directly quote:General Zaluzhny, who is raising a new army corps, reels off a wishlist. “I know that I can beat this enemy,” he says. “But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 ifvs [infantry fighting vehicles], 500 Howitzers.”
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Mar 15, 2023 11:32
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I haven't fully dived into the source to see what the original context was, but three new corps doesn't necessarily have to mean a completely fresh set of 60k men and materiel in addition to the existing army. It could, and probably does to an extent, involve the restructuring of some existing formations so they have a number of experienced members throughout the new corps. So like disbanding one existing corps and redistributing them across three new ones.
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