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(Thread IKs: skooma512)
 
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Milosh
Oct 14, 2000
Forum Veteran
Where should I put my money? If it all goes to hell.

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euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

well I’m happy the prices corporations pay for things Is going up less rapidly than before. I’m sure that will show up in prices for goods going down

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Red Baron posted:

no no no, there are no “workers”

there are “producers” (capital, only money can make money) and “consumers” (everyone else)

“workers” is an archaic term that we prefer not to use. you see, we’re all a big family here…

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007

ty slumfrog :)

Milosh posted:

Where should I put my money? If it all goes to hell.

probably into a fire pit

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Red Baron posted:

probably into a fire pit

not at all once of course, it's cotton so that's good tinder though

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

euphronius posted:

well I’m happy the prices corporations pay for things Is going up less rapidly than before. I’m sure that will show up in prices for goods going down

https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1635972734357237760?s=20

lol

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

forkboy84 posted:

VIX up 16% today seems healthy.

Vix?

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009

Taima posted:

Don't you guys remember that we went over the "chatgpt predicts market crash" thing at the time it came out and it was obviously fake? I feel like it gained legs just because everyone shouted it really loud into existence. That being said we talked it over here like 2 or 3 weeks ago which in hellscape time is approximately 8 years. So whatever.

that being said if it happens I'm not complaining.

owns

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
2 year treasury down 32bps this morning

Forseti
May 26, 2001
To the lovenasium!

Bar Ran Dun posted:

This is omnipresent. if there are known metric somebody (or everybody!) is going to optimize for the metrics to get an advantage / promotion, thereby distorting what the metrics were trying to on measure.

so I dunno I just go look. I also do this professionally a lot, watch, photograph, and extensively note. serious old school business does this a lot, new “disruptors” not so much.

it’s almost like no one wants to acknowledge that observation both qualitative and quantitative is the first thing to do. instead everybody wants data first and then to back fit a hypothesis to data.

there is also generally a focus educationally on form over substance. it doesn’t matter what the thesis is, grading is determined by its support structurally.

and there is economics it’s all wonderfully structured. built on its clear assumptions with its straight forward correlative relationships expressed in simple lines intersecting. no causative or complex systems thinking. just two lines intersecting.

I mean that’s not useless. but it’s certainly not everything. The complexity and sophistication of a model increases our tendency to accept the model’s conclusions as truth.

I think particularly with Krugman that’s what’s going on. a lot of folks are quick to go to “massaging numbers” as an accusation. that’s unnecessary. somebody like Krugman is doing what they were trained to do and honestly.

I've said it before but The Machine Stops nails this beautifully:

code:
Advanced thinkers, like Vashti, had always held it foolish to visit the surface of the
earth. Air-ships might be necessary, but what was the good of going out for mere curiosity
and crawling along for a mile or two in a terrestrial motor? The habit was vulgar and per-
haps faintly improper: it was unproductive of ideas, and had no connection with the habits
that really mattered. So respirators were abolished, and with them, of course, the terrestrial
motors, and except for a few lecturers, who complained that they were debarred access
to their subject-matter, the development was accepted quietly. Those who still wanted to
know what the earth was like had after all only to listen to some gramophone, or to look
into some cinematophote. And even the lecturers acquiesced when they found that a lec-
ture on the sea was none the less stimulating when compiled out of other lectures that had
already been delivered on the same subject. “Beware of first-hand ideas!” exclaimed one
of the most advanced of them. “First-hand ideas do not really exist. They are but the
physical impressions produced by love and fear, and on this gross foundation who could
erect a philosophy? Let your ideas be second-hand, and if possible tenth-hand, for then
they will be far removed from that disturbing element — direct observation. Do not learn
anything about this subject of mine — the French Revolution. Learn instead what I think
that Enicharmon thought Urizen thought Gutch thought Ho-Yung thought Chi-Bo-Sing
thought Lafcadio Hearn thought Carlyle thought Mirabeau said about the French Revolu-
tion. Through the medium of these ten great minds, the blood that was shed at Paris and the
windows that were broken at Versailles will be clarified to an idea which you may employ
most profitably in your daily lives. But be sure that the intermediates are many and varied,
for in history one authority exists to counteract another. Urizen must counteract the scepti-
cism of Ho-Yung and Enicharmon, I must myself counteract the impetuosity of Gutch. You
who listen to me are in a better position to judge about the French Revolution than I am.
Your descendants will be even in a better position than you, for they will learn what you
think I think, and yet another intermediate will be added to the chain. And in time” — his
voice rose — “there will come a generation that had got beyond facts, beyond impressions,
a generation absolutely colourless, a generation

‘seraphically free
From taint of personality,’

which will see the French Revolution not as it happened, nor as they would like it to have
happened, but as it would have happened, had it taken place in the days of the Machine.”

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

The Machine Stops is so good.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Milosh posted:

Where should I put my money? If it all goes to hell.

Bitcoin is up. Gold & Silver are both up over 1%. You could get into Wheat futures.

Or y'know, invest in guns & ammo for the coming collapse if you're an optimist.

(Do not listen to any financial advice from me. I have invest £0 & $0)

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009


wow how dare you insult corporations

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Strong, STABLE


Soft, SAFE

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

insert baghdad bob image

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007

ty slumfrog :)

forkboy84 posted:

(Do not listen to any financial advice from me. I have invest £0 & $0)

why do you hate number so?

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


https://twitter.com/theintercept/status/1635810695701823489

quote:

On Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom praised the Biden administration’s decision to intervene on behalf of Silicon Valley Bank’s clients after the bank was taken over by the FDIC on Friday amid a bank run. The White House “acted swiftly and decisively to protect the American economy and strengthen public confidence in our banking system,” Newsom said in a statement. What Newsom didn’t mention is that it also protected his own companies if they held over $250,000 in deposits.

CADE, Odette, and PlumpJack, three wineries owned by Newsom, are listed as clients of SVB on the bank’s website. Newsom also maintained personal accounts at SVB for years, according to a longtime former employee of Newsom’s who handled his finances, and who requested anonymity to avoid professional reprisal.

[...]

Nodelphi
Jan 30, 2004

We are all quite capable of believing in anything as long as it's improbable.

Ham Wrangler

Milosh posted:

Where should I put my money? If it all goes to hell.

Most people blow it on succubi or incubi but the smart money is on pit lords.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


The market could not sustain its PPI erection 😔 Market is down -1.95% with 25 minutes until the open 🩸

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Red Baron posted:

why do you hate number so?

Because I am dirt poor.

Milosh
Oct 14, 2000
Forum Veteran

Nodelphi posted:

Most people blow it on succubi or incubi but the smart money is on pit lords.

Bitcoin it is!

Adjectivist Philosophy
Oct 6, 2003

When you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you.
SCARE

your banks

SAFE

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

lol web3
Actions that define CEO leadership in 2023 | McKinsey

www.mckinsey.com posted:

In his 2017 book, Hit Refresh, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella writes that great leaders “recognize the true signal within a lot of noise” and act accordingly. Fast forward to 2023, and the torrent of trends, ideas, and information that leaders now face makes knowing what matters more difficult than ever.

It’s against this backdrop that McKinsey conducted its latest CEO Excellence Survey, to take the pulse of leading CEOs’ evolving priorities and the actions they’re taking in response. We started by asking a group of the world’s top-performing CEOs (see sidebar, “Survey methodology”) which trends will have the biggest impact on how they lead their business in 2023 compared with past years. Their answers suggest that three “true signals” matter most: digital disruption, the economy, and geopolitics (exhibit).

Second, we asked about the specific and pragmatic actions they are taking as a result of these signals. Here we found that a consistent mix of defensive (protecting against risks) and offensive (capturing new opportunities) maneuvers create a powerful playbook for leaders in 2023, the details of which we discuss in this article.
. . .

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Talking (on Bloomberg TV) about comparing what's going on with Credit Suisse to Greece circa Euro crisis is very fun.

Would like to salute the Saudi Bank guy who did his part for making this poo poo sink.

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Forseti posted:

I've said it before but The Machine Stops nails this beautifully:

code:
Advanced thinkers, like Vashti, had always held it foolish to visit the surface of the
earth. Air-ships might be necessary, but what was the good of going out for mere curiosity
and crawling along for a mile or two in a terrestrial motor? The habit was vulgar and per-
haps faintly improper: it was unproductive of ideas, and had no connection with the habits
that really mattered. So respirators were abolished, and with them, of course, the terrestrial
motors, and except for a few lecturers, who complained that they were debarred access
to their subject-matter, the development was accepted quietly. Those who still wanted to
know what the earth was like had after all only to listen to some gramophone, or to look
into some cinematophote. And even the lecturers acquiesced when they found that a lec-
ture on the sea was none the less stimulating when compiled out of other lectures that had
already been delivered on the same subject. “Beware of first-hand ideas!” exclaimed one
of the most advanced of them. “First-hand ideas do not really exist. They are but the
physical impressions produced by love and fear, and on this gross foundation who could
erect a philosophy? Let your ideas be second-hand, and if possible tenth-hand, for then
they will be far removed from that disturbing element — direct observation. Do not learn
anything about this subject of mine — the French Revolution. Learn instead what I think
that Enicharmon thought Urizen thought Gutch thought Ho-Yung thought Chi-Bo-Sing
thought Lafcadio Hearn thought Carlyle thought Mirabeau said about the French Revolu-
tion. Through the medium of these ten great minds, the blood that was shed at Paris and the
windows that were broken at Versailles will be clarified to an idea which you may employ
most profitably in your daily lives. But be sure that the intermediates are many and varied,
for in history one authority exists to counteract another. Urizen must counteract the scepti-
cism of Ho-Yung and Enicharmon, I must myself counteract the impetuosity of Gutch. You
who listen to me are in a better position to judge about the French Revolution than I am.
Your descendants will be even in a better position than you, for they will learn what you
think I think, and yet another intermediate will be added to the chain. And in time” — his
voice rose — “there will come a generation that had got beyond facts, beyond impressions,
a generation absolutely colourless, a generation

‘seraphically free
From taint of personality,’

which will see the French Revolution not as it happened, nor as they would like it to have
happened, but as it would have happened, had it taken place in the days of the Machine.”

This wouldn't be out of place in a vonnegut novel

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Credit Suisse is down 30%!

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

how dare you say this in a thread dedicated to doomers and doomerism

just kidding. so long as you don't credit and praise democrats for this right-to-work repeal, you're probably safe...

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

rem,emebr wehn you wanted to be a mod on this subforum

meanolmrcloud
Apr 5, 2004

rock out with your stock out

the market will poo poo itself when anyone from the fed does not rule out continues rate hikes. literally the Obama gas lever cartoon, but with pissy money people.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007


https://twitter.com/petepettifogger/status/1635989107342995457?s=20

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


:sickos:

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1635992459556552707

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



number dead?

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Oil (WTI) price/barrel have crashed from $80 last week to $69 this morning, a 15% dump in 7 days.

edit: $68.50

Mr. Lobe
Feb 23, 2007

... Dry bones...


anime was right posted:

by making this new thread i have saved the economy. yes, that's right. i am the fed and calling attention to market failure causes number to rise. doomsday economics has been a successful bailout plan.

Thamks

Mirthless
Mar 27, 2011

by the sex ghost

SKULL.GIF posted:

Oil (WTI) price/barrel have crashed from $80 last week to $69 this morning, a 15% dump in 7 days.

edit: $68.50

Happened in 2008 too, at thst time people were hedging losses by dumping speculative oil investments

Could be another indicator. I'm sure today wont be the day but a guy can hope

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Biden will announce that the fdic covers credit suisse

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Bloomberg had a segment about how the Swiss central bank and government were worried a American bank would swoop in and gobble up Credit Suisse and wondered if they could happen now. One of the reporters chimed in and said that was doubtful because credit suisse has too many problems to solve.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Mr Hootington posted:

Bloomberg had a segment about how the Swiss central bank and government were worried a American bank would swoop in and gobble up Credit Suisse and wondered if they could happen now. One of the reporters chimed in and said that was doubtful because credit suisse has too many problems to solve.

Mr. Burns Is A World Bank

Mirthless
Mar 27, 2011

by the sex ghost

zetamind2000 posted:

Biden will announce that the fdic covers credit suisse

An unprecedented 800 billion dollar aid package to Switzerland

Gold plated helicopters delivering 50lb bags of saffron to inconvenienced rich people

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


First Republic Bank cut to Junk by S&P apparently.

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forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1635994409006166017?s=20

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