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Soviet Corps were roughly western divisions, based on the 6 brigade quote, I’d imagine that’s true of Ukraine too.
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Mar 15, 2023 14:36
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If they do manage to pull it off though, an armored division riding Challengers and two mechanized infantry divisions riding Bradleys are going to seriously ruin Russia's day.
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Mar 15, 2023 15:12
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Moon Slayer posted:If they do manage to pull it off though, an armored division riding Challengers and two mechanized infantry divisions riding Bradleys are going to seriously ruin Russia's day. So far, they're looking at about 3.5 battalions of western tanks, so it may take a bit.
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Mar 15, 2023 15:14
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Don't think of "Corps" in the Western sense. Ukraine is currently organized into Military Districts, each of which has responsibility over a specific geographic area. These Districts directly control maneuver brigades, artillery brigades, anti-aircraft formations, etc. A "Corps" as Ukraine envisions them is probably as a headquarters for a set of maneuver brigades and supporting assets. My guess is that Ukraine attacks on two avenues--one corps for each--and the third corps reinforces the more successful avenue of attack. I can't find an easy reference online, but the task organization of a Soviet Rifle Corps in WW2 differed markedly from a US Corps in WW2, and those heritages have come forward. I'd expect each Ukrainian Corps to have ~3 maneuver brigades each along with some supporting artillery, reconnaissance, and support units.
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Mar 15, 2023 15:17
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It's 6 brigades per corps, just read the Economist quote on the previous page.
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Mar 15, 2023 15:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:December 15, Economist after interviewing Zaluzhnyy directly I mean, yeah, I could probably beat the Russian army singlehandedly if I had a Gundam.
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Mar 15, 2023 16:31
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Ramstein meeting is underway. Reportedly, the main topic of the agenda is not shiny new stuff, but on ensuring that pledges end up materializing in Ukraine in a timely fashion.Moon Slayer posted:I mean, yeah, I could probably beat the Russian army singlehandedly if I had a Gundam. No Tominochat. 
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Mar 15, 2023 16:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Ramstein meeting is underway. Reportedly, the main topic of the agenda is not shiny new stuff, but on ensuring that pledges end up materializing in Ukraine in a timely fashion. That's a valid discussion to have. It's not as exciting as new toys, but Ukraine has a huge need for the non-flashy stuff, too.
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Mar 15, 2023 16:55
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
I mean, it has a Battle of Odessa where the fascist invader gets wrecked! It’s topical!
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Mar 15, 2023 17:42
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Torrannor posted:That's a valid discussion to have. It's not as exciting as new toys, but Ukraine has a huge need for the non-flashy stuff, too. Oh, I didn't mean that as a condemnation. Just saying that the expectations here should be much closer to technical bureaucracy than tanks. As far as I'm concerned, I would be more than happy to simply here that they've settled on a plan to unfuck logistics and beeline everything promised to Ukraine. Well, and maybe an expansion programme for NATO training because I'm getting this feeling that part of the equation for the degradation in Bakhmut is that Ukrainians are running low on ammo, and their Soviet-brained reserve commanders are further exacerbating the problem by trying to bomb everything at once.
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Mar 15, 2023 17:55
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Ive seen a bunch of crimea videos pop up about hows its historically been this impenetrable fortress, etc etc. My reading of history is that its actually a pain to defend and a nighmare to hold if isolated.
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Mar 15, 2023 18:21
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It's 6 brigades per corps, just read the Economist quote on the previous page. Oops, thanks. Though The Economist is not always precise with their military taxonomy. I could easily see that being "3 maneuver brigades, an artillery brigade, a rocket artillery brigade, and an anti-aircraft brigade". Though I think Ukraine AA batteries tend to be organized into "divisions". If it truly is 3 x 6 = 18 maneuver brigades, though, that's a lot of combat power potential.
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Mar 15, 2023 18:44
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Burns posted:Ive seen a bunch of crimea videos pop up about hows its historically been this impenetrable fortress, etc etc. For being an impenetrable fortress, yes, it's been taken quite a few times over the ages.
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Mar 15, 2023 21:37
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Makes sense, though. Advancing through that towards the south against defending forces? Hell no. Supplying defending forces? Also hell no. It's just a bad place.
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Mar 15, 2023 21:59
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Being forced to resupply purely truck/train over a bridge that has shown the ability to be damaged would be an awful position to be in.
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Mar 15, 2023 22:43
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ChaseSP posted:Being forced to resupply purely truck/train over a bridge that has shown the ability to be damaged would be an awful position to be in. There are still sea and air ports, though. But reaching a position where the Kerch bridges can be hit more regularly must be high on Ukrainian wish list, and conversely preventing that has to be the highest priority for Russia.
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Mar 15, 2023 22:50
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Nenonen posted:There are still sea and air ports, though. But reaching a position where the Kerch bridges can be hit more regularly must be high on Ukrainian wish list, and conversely preventing that has to be the highest priority for Russia. If the Ukrainians are within bombardment distance of the Kerch bridges aren't they also within bombardment range of Sevastopol and the other Crimean seaports?
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Mar 15, 2023 23:05
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:If the Ukrainians are within bombardment distance of the Kerch bridges aren't they also within bombardment range of Sevastopol and the other Crimean seaports? Depends on our assumptions. If Ukrainian forces advance from Zaporizzia toward Melitopol then they will sooner have Kerch within range than Sevastopol.
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Mar 15, 2023 23:21
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I think we are in deeply hypothetical territory at that point. In a hypothetical where everything north of that awful place I showed earlier is under Ukrainian control, Kerch and Sevastopol are about 170km away from potential artillery positions. And if Ukraine has retaken Melitopol, we are already in a scenario where the Russian armed forces are in a severely degraded state. So that's a long way to go from the current state.
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Mar 15, 2023 23:26
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So the Russians will try to recover the mq-9, and so will the US (through allies). What does Gen Mark Milley mean when he says that “As far as the loss of any sensitive intelligence … we did take mitigating measures. So we are quite confident that whatever was of value is no longer of value.” What are these mitigating measures? Do these drones have a ‘light all the microprocessors on fire‘ before hitting the water?
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Mar 15, 2023 23:29
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mrfart posted:So the Russians will try to recover the mq-9, and so will the US (through allies). What does Gen Mark Milley mean when he says that “As far as the loss of any sensitive intelligence … we did take mitigating measures. So we are quite confident that whatever was of value is no longer of value.” I would guess almost certainly yes.
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Mar 15, 2023 23:34
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mrfart posted:So the Russians will try to recover the mq-9, and so will the US (through allies). What does Gen Mark Milley mean when he says that “As far as the loss of any sensitive intelligence … we did take mitigating measures. So we are quite confident that whatever was of value is no longer of value.” Maybe not as drastic as setting things on fire, but there are built in commands to wipe sensitive data (eg zeroize all your cryptographic keys) mid flight in the event you know you have to ditch an asset.
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Mar 15, 2023 23:35
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mrfart posted:What are these mitigating measures?
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Mar 15, 2023 23:42
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Yeah he's probably just talking about zeroizing any data on it. At this point I don't think any hardware on a drone is secret squirrel stuff.
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Mar 15, 2023 23:45
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It's big enough to also just have some small bomb on it that's wired to a pressure sensor, if you really want to make sure that it (or at least some fancy electronics of it) doesn't land anywhere inappropriate intact.
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Mar 16, 2023 |
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Mar 16, 2023 00:03
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My wife's been checking up on propaganda and general narrative in Russian media lately and watched a few things that were kind of a new angle. There's been a new thrust saying that Russia is close to achieving all its goals of eliminating Ukraine as a threat by destroying it's infrastructure and economy, and thus soon it could be time to leave Ukraine in order to avoid the "western trap" they've set for Russia. Russia can then pull back to its borders (sadly including crimea) and declare mission accomplished. This will cost the west dearly as they will have to pay to rebuild Ukraine and this will drain the west and since the rebuilding will be corrupt and useless Ukraine won't recover for a very long time. That the west of course started this war in an attempt to "trap" russia, but Russia is too smart and instead rushed in, achieved its goals, and will leave before the trap can be sprung. And this all gave russia extremely valuable military experience, so after this war Russia will have the most experienced military in the world. Oh also if Russia leaves it means the sanctions will all instantly fall of course. I'd love to think this is Russia planting seeds for spinning its withdraw as a sort of "mission accomplished!" lie.
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Mar 16, 2023 00:08
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Baronjutter posted:Russia can then pull back to its borders (sadly including crimea) and declare mission accomplished. Doesn't work like that with the self-declared new borders of Russia, which they don't control by any sensible definition.
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Mar 16, 2023 00:15
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Russia can't just declare the war over and Ukraine has to stop fighting, this isn't a videogame. The only withdrawal scenario where Ukraine doesn't continue fighting is one where Russia also abandons all its territorial gains, including Crimea.
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Mar 16, 2023 00:26
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Nenonen posted:There are still sea and air ports, though. But reaching a position where the Kerch bridges can be hit more regularly must be high on Ukrainian wish list, and conversely preventing that has to be the highest priority for Russia. Can't find the exact source, but someone on twitter after the bridge got blown that the Kerch Straight have a period of windy and adverse conditions for seafaring from autumn until late spring. So it isn't smooth sailing (lol) for ship logistics either.
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Mar 16, 2023 00:37
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Baronjutter posted:My wife's been checking up on propaganda and general narrative in Russian media lately and watched a few things that were kind of a new angle.
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Mar 16, 2023 00:41
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The US apparently had radios in Vietnam with self-destructing circuit boards and has disclosed active research into stressed-glass substrate microchips that can be triggered to turn into dust similarly to Prince Rupert's drops. I'm sure any hardware on that drone which was sensitive was rigged with something to physically destroy it. Codes and programs can be flushed out of memory but something like the main camera optical capabilities needs at least a little bit of bang.
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Mar 16, 2023 00:55
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Xtronoc posted:Can't find the exact source, but someone on twitter after the bridge got blown that the Kerch Straight have a period of windy and adverse conditions for seafaring from autumn until late spring. So it isn't smooth sailing (lol) for ship logistics either. Russia has ports all along the eastern end of the black sea. They don't have to go through the Kerch straight or even the sea of azov.
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Mar 16, 2023 02:36
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Saladman posted:That might be true, but that explanation is also one you would give to de-escalate ("it was clearly a semi-accident") and to try to make the other side look incompetent ("lol they can’t fly plane good"). Certainly plausible but it also fits an agenda so neatly that it’s also the exact thing you would expect them to say. It doesn't look like it's been mentioned but the Brits used to down V1/V2 rockets in WWII by nudging its fins with their wings. Those were not remotely piloted, of course.
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Mar 16, 2023 03:00
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https://twitter.com/ekat_kittycat/status/1636073622191374336 This is not anyone special as far as I know but they state what a lot of purportedly on the ground people have been saying. Morale seems to be flagging in the Bakhmut area and people seem to really dislike Syrskyi. A lot of the blame for the struggles in Bakhmut is being laid at his feet.
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Mar 16, 2023 06:41
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Unfortunately we will not know how this gamble at Bakhmut will turn out until probably sometime mid or late summer when the eventual Ukrainian counter offensive should coming to fruition. It definitely sucks for the grunts in those trenches and having to worry about being cut off/surrounded at any time probably does not improve on morale. In regards to the morale, the War on the Rocks and Politics Decanted podcasts are stating the morale is generally high but obviously situational.
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Mar 16, 2023 07:24
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Bad news bouncing around social media can become poison. Not sure if the Ukrainian language side is better than the anglosphere on that front. It really feels like some sort of messaging to get everybody on the same page would be important at this juncture, having figures talking poo poo about your top general doesn't seem great. Looking at the address by Zelensky after Ramstein meeting: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zaraz-vidchuvayetsya-sho-rosijska-agresiya-nablizhayetsya-do-81629 This feels very much more geared towards foreign audiences instead of the domestic audience. Not sure if there's a domestic equivalent that has more pep talk for the troops somewhere. Of course, it could also be a culture difference where that is not really expected or the morale of the troops are high overall and it's not needed and the doom and gloom is just amplified on the english speaking twitter side (which I know, isn't the real world). Also is this a great game of telephone or what? https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/15/dod-ukraine-war-supplies-00087291 This article is making the rounds saying US officials estimate 100k Ukrainian forces have died when the closest thing to this number that I can remember is General Miley last November saying 100k Russian casualties and likely similar for Ukraine. https://www.businessinsider.com/more-than-100000-russian-soldiers-killed-gen-mark-milley-said-2022-11 Did I miss a report somewhere? WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Mar 16, 2023 |
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Mar 16, 2023 09:01
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Apparently, THE video. What a clown show. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1636301723684728834
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Mar 16, 2023 10:54
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Gervasius posted:Apparently, THE video. What a clown show. Also lamo what a clownshow
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Mar 16, 2023 11:39
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Seems safer and equally diplomatic-incident-generating to just shoot the drone down at that point
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Mar 16, 2023 11:43
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Something a bit unusual – Italian intelligence services claim to have uncovered a plot wherein Medvedev has issued Wagner a $15m bounty for the head of Crosetto, Italy's minister of defence. https://www.ilfoglio.it/politica/20...ollari-5061298/Gervasius posted:Apparently, THE video. What a clown show. This worked fairly well for me back in the day, when I flew Mitsubishi A6M Zero in War Thunder. It had a fairly broken flight model early on, and could last for kilometres with wings torn off. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Mar 16, 2023 |
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Mar 16, 2023 11:45
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