[Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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(Thread IKs: skooma512)

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Minecraft Holmes posted:

america is the second largest manufacturer in the world, china only overtook us in 2010

and since then China's manufacturing value added is equal to the US and EU combined (essentially twice the US)

all the while non-manufacturing growth in China being so high that China's manufacturing as a % of GDP has declined by about 10% during the same time frame

(US manufacturing value added as % of GDP in 2021 was 10.71% for reference)

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:48

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# ? May 25, 2024 00:20

HiHo ChiRho: Oct 23, 2010

palindrome posted:

That's an interesting point.

Personally I am no longer convinced that the majority of workers getting wages and spending them on goods and services is a vital part of the economy. Certainly having a huge portion of the earning workforce buying goods is helpful, but it seems that a smaller and smaller portion of the top of the wealth pyramid are responsible for the majority of economic activity in the US. I don't know where it all ends but I see graphs that say the top X% of people are now responsible for Y% of spending, and the lower tiers of workers are simply being priced out. How much of the workforce can be laid off, and in essence written off and never expected to meaningfully consume ever again? It will be interesting to see how many businesses fail due to lack of consumers as opposed to consumers becoming destitute. It's certainly a grim situation and very cruel to the hard working folks that will lose their jobs and be unable to afford the basic necessities to live.

e: and many, many people in this country (like me) are only one missed paycheck or at best a few months of missed wages from destitution

That's a fair point. The economy has been getting by only with "cheap" credit. Instead of workers receiving increasing wages, to keep their standards of living they're instead offered low interest loans and getting heavily indebted while still contributing to the economy buying goods and services. Inflation on all commodities aside from a workers wages is continuing to squeeze workers further, alongside a credit crunch from rising interest rates. It's the credit crunch that could act like massive layoffs, as the rentier class cuts off heavily indebted plebes from further credit while also jacking up interest the rates on their massive variable rate loans.

The feds are just going to perpetually pivot from QE and QT until it all falls apart basically

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:49

Entorwellian: Jun 30, 2006; ~~Northern Flicker~~
Anna's Hummingbird

Sorry, but the people have spoken.

RealityWarCriminal posted:

my friend's wife works for a company that manufactures nails. they buy spools of wire from China and do just enough processing on it to make it not say Made in China.

I know people getting away with this kind of stuff on Etsy.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:49

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Entorwellian posted:

I know people getting away with this kind of stuff on Etsy.

I feel like drop shipping / lightly sprucing up Alibaba products has to be at least 50% of what's sold on Etsy

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:52

Raskolnikov38: Mar 3, 2007; We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Dr. Furious posted:

JP Morgan to regional banks:

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:56

palindrome: Feb 3, 2020

I used to think McDonalds was cheap, and maybe it still is relatively. Then I check breakfast prices in a big city like Chicago and it's $2.69 hash browns, $5.29 sausage egg mcmuffin, $8+ for a breakfast meal. $11.59 for a bigmac meal (1110 calories). It's a good benchmark of inflation for me personally, who can barely remember a candy bar or 12 oz. soda can being $0.50, and now it is roughly 3x the cost. First Chicago mcd menu google result is ubereats, dont click if you hate this.
This has been your old man yells at clouds� segment for today, thanks for tuning in.

Dollar General can be very popular and profitable for their market segment but I'm not sure they comprise a meaningful amount of sales or profit compared to people shopping at whole foods or dining at a restaurant and spending 20x to 40x that amount in one trip. I agree that people are being driven to grocery shop at $1 stores but even while profitable I question how much of the total consumer pie they are capturing compared to, uh, an Apple store selling iPads or Macy's selling $90 shoes or what have you.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:58

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

HiHo ChiRho posted:

That's a fair point. The economy has been getting by only with "cheap" credit. Instead of workers receiving increasing wages, to keep their standards of living they're instead offered low interest loans and getting heavily indebted while still contributing to the economy buying goods and services. Inflation on all commodities aside from a workers wages is continuing to squeeze workers further, alongside a credit crunch from rising interest rates. It's the credit crunch that could act like massive layoffs, as the rentier class cuts off heavily indebted plebes from further credit while also jacking up interest the rates on their massive variable rate loans.

The feds are just going to perpetually pivot from QE and QT until it all falls apart basically

They're going to sell bonds that nobody wants to buy but themselves, to themselves. Forever. And it will never stop until such time as overseas people laugh at the idea of sending goods into the USA in return for junk funny money and start demanding payment in a real currency that isn't being printed faster than the ink cartridges can be changed, or hard barter for something of equivalent produced value.

The books? They're simmering away in a red wine sauce over an open fire in that cauldron.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:59

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

HiHo ChiRho posted:

The feds are just going to perpetually pivot from QE and QT until it all falls apart basically

I have faith they can think of something new ans worse

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:00

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

webcams for christ posted:

and since then China's manufacturing value added is equal to the US and EU combined (essentially twice the US)

all the while non-manufacturing growth in China being so high that China's manufacturing as a % of GDP has declined by about 10% during the same time frame

(US manufacturing value added as % of GDP in 2021 was 10.71% for reference)

What the hell is wrong with India anyway

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:01

Shipon: Nov 7, 2005

DancingShade posted:

They're going to sell bonds that nobody wants to buy but themselves, to themselves. Forever. And it will never stop until such time as overseas people laugh at the idea of sending goods into the USA in return for junk funny money and start demanding payment in a real currency that isn't being printed faster than the ink cartridges can be changed, or hard barter for something of equivalent produced value.

The books? They're simmering away in a red wine sauce over an open fire in that cauldron.

the moment that happens america launches its nukes becuase if it can't be the currency of last resort, no one's can

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:01

palindrome: Feb 3, 2020

HiHo ChiRho posted:

That's a fair point. The economy has been getting by only with "cheap" credit. Instead of workers receiving increasing wages, to keep their standards of living they're instead offered low interest loans and getting heavily indebted while still contributing to the economy buying goods and services. Inflation on all commodities aside from a workers wages is continuing to squeeze workers further, alongside a credit crunch from rising interest rates. It's the credit crunch that could act like massive layoffs, as the rentier class cuts off heavily indebted plebes from further credit while also jacking up interest the rates on their massive variable rate loans.

The feds are just going to perpetually pivot from QE and QT until it all falls apart basically

yeah I agree, well put. I keep thinking credit can't last forever for consumers, but so far it always seems to have lasted far enough, so what do I know.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:01

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

euphronius posted:

I have faith they can think of something new ans worse

An all purpose whizz-bang digital currency where they edit a central excel spreadsheet to determine how many Digital Secure (tm) FedBucks you have to your name for spending.

It will immediately be gamed by people who give themselves and their friends infinite money, until other people realise the new Digital Secure (tm) FedBucks are just worthless junk and start refusing to sell anything unless the buyer can produce physical currency in return. Something strong and stable. Like say a mexican peso.

Everyone will end up with millions of Digital Secure (tm) FedBucks, nobody will be making the lattes or collecting the garbage and then we get to watch someone walk down the street in a silly hat playing a kazoo.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:03

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Bloomberg with a handful of visualizations to catch you up on all of Credit Suisse's recent fuckups (there are way more before 2018, but those weren't decisive for CS's current predicament)

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:06

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Bank of America's chief economist this morning
https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/1636677357082738692?t=zqd7uvoDcpKPcZ4e9vaigg&s=19

Just getting out ahead of the any potential crisis, which there isnt, for the first time in history.
https://twitter.com/0ddette/status/1636684082661736449?t=ISUwjBaaaPD3lBoQ8T88lw&s=19

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:09

TDepressionEarl: Oct 28, 2010; I'm trying to win the World Cup
but I'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps playing Argentina onside

turning my head ninety degrees because terminal touchers are spooked by graphs that descend from the top left corner into the bottom right corner

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:12

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

We're not actually insolvent and panicking, we're just borrowing all this money to make a scrooge mcduck money pit for an office party. Just in case we decide to hold an office party.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:14

super sweet best pal: Nov 18, 2009

Bank of America deez nuts!

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:15

Egg Moron: Jul 21, 2003; the dreams of the delighting void

Thank god it�s not a crisis

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:16

TDepressionEarl: Oct 28, 2010; I'm trying to win the World Cup
but I'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps playing Argentina onside

Queasy Stupid Love

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:27

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

BEAR GRYLLZ posted:

wow i didn't know that, thanks for the link!

At least conservatives will just make poo poo up cuz it feels tight. Liberals will lie right to your face and then tell the truth 3 seconds later because they're too dumb to draw conclusions from anything and simply believe whatever they're told.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:27

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Today's Credit Suisse gossip is that it will be carved up and acquired in pieces by mostly domestic banks: Global & Swiss Wealth Management will go to UBS, Retail Banking and Small Business Banking will be shared between ZKB and Raiffeisen, however Asset Management looks like it may leave the country, with Deutsche Bank expressing interest. CS's Investment Banking division was already spun off to CS First Boston in October 2022.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:30

kater: Nov 16, 2010

the faces that dude is making

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:34

fits my needs: Jan 1, 2011; Grimey Drawer

https://twitter.com/business/status/1636691869433311235?s=20

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:38

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

fits my needs posted:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1636691869433311235?s=20

Rates... bonds... what? Mumbo jumbo fancy talk.

Oh wait greasy sugar cardboard snacks from mcdonalds are more expensive? (air raid sirens spool up)

Bloomburg needs to adjust their writing style for a different target audience if they want more readers.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:46

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

palindrome posted:

Go to university and rack up debt in iowa or dakota, move to coast and become a neoliberal rear end in a top hat, get mad at your parents and hate your hometown. make 3x your salary compared to where you come from. buy a house in the suburb and oppose homelessness and high density housing. vote biden, very hard. thank you.

This is every Angosphere country. lol why are they like this?

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:50

Buffer: May 6, 2007; I sometimes turn down sex and blowjobs from my girlfriend because I'm too busy posting in D&D. PS: She used my credit card to pay for this.

Vox Nihili posted:

What the hell is wrong with India anyway

capitalism. It's like *the* difference.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 12:50

Rectal Death Adept: Jun 20, 2018; by Fluffdaddy

dk2m posted:

to be very, very clear - hyperinflation can only exist in countries that take on foreign debt. america, due to its unique position of being a reserve currency, will never experience it.

price increases that we see are primarily due to the de-industrialization policies of the finance capitalists. because we can no longer manufacture even basic things like t-shirts here, it causes delays that lead to price increases. this is in no way the same as "hyperinflation" as traditionally understood. every single country that has experienced it has experienced a debt spiral due to their inability to obtain foreign currencies to balance their current account.

i continue to disagree with the hyperinflation diagnoses. the much more dangerous effect of this current crisis is that labor becomes terrified and we don't see it's power again for another decade.

what about a debt spiral that is just as bad but isn't related to foreign currency at all

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:00

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

fits my needs posted:

https://twitter.com/BusinessInsider/status/1636477723433488385?s=20

Give me 8 million dollars lol

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:04

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

I've seen better and more meatier presentations in middle school

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:04

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

dk2m posted:

this is a genuinely great question. phrased another way - why are losses happening at blue chip companies, which are supposedly the same class of people the fed is supposed to help? and how is that contributing to the erosion of employment?

to answer this, we have to first differentiate between industrial capitalism and finance capitalism.

industrial capitalism was genuinely revolutionary - reading some of the classical economists like Ricardo and Smith, you get a clear takeaway: the feudal class must go. their ability to monopolize key sectors of the economy, namely land, was causing a bottleneck that capitalists saw as hindering growth. they argued that feudalism, primarily the ability for a hereditary class to inherit unearned income, was choking the economy as it indebted the population and made them debt slaves to creditors. looking back to ancient times, even those in the palace would periodically wage war on the aristocracy as labor that had been indebted by creditors meant that they couldn't be used as labor by the king.

in a similar way, capitalists saw the feudal class as a non-rational and non-liberal part of society. as the physiocrats, the proto-capitalists, first started developing their opposition in France, it eventually led to the French Revolution in which liberals rebelled and massacred the feudal class.

historically, the industrial capitalists have opposed the financial capitalists. this is because finance capitalism is very similar to feudalism - it is designed to indebt the population by using their assets as claims of debt. industrial capitalists do not want this - they want low cost of living as it is how they can compete with other countries and societies. a country that has high healthcare costs means that they have to pay higher wages; if a government subsidizes it instead, it means that a company has to pay less wages, leading to more profit.

the situation we're in now is that finance capitalism has completely taken over and pushed out the industrialists. what marx railed against, namely the exploitation of workers, almost seems quaint - we are effectively in a neo-feudal age in which the vast majority of americans are heavily indebted and are debtors, between morgages, education loans, healthcare, auto, credit cards, etc.

within this distinction, we can now answer your question. inflation is ASSET PRICE INFLATION. this is fundamentally different from CPI inflation, so-called consumer price index. we are NOT in danger of hyperinflation, I don't know where this narrative is coming from. what has happened is that asset prices, namely housing and stocks, have been artificially inflated due to the 15 year QE campaign by the fed. last year, when millions died due to covid and there were severe shortages in restaurants, factories, warehouses, etc, labor suddenly had additional power to demand higher wages.

this demand threatened both industry AND finance. however, industrial capitalists have largely transformed into finance capitalists - the biggest example of this is silicon valley in which VCs are seen as the movers and shakers. in the past, VCs were treated with contempt - even within SVB, they were a completely separate arm until the head of VC took over SVB.

what no one expected was a literal plague killing off millions of potential workers worldwide and changing the ability of labor to demand more. as we all began realizing, we could jump from job to job and make more than we used to - restaurants were chronically understaffed and computer touchers were saying the refused to come into the office. suddenly, industrial capitalsim reared its head and allowed workers to demand higher wages in compensation. this is unacceptable, as now suddenly these high wages hit the already high (relatively speaking) wages of america - employers have to pay for healthcare, compensate cost of living, etc.

this threatened the growth of the country, literally. company owners were NOT affected by this cost of living increase - they are the creditors, not the ones being indebted. the losses they suffered from the feds rate hike increase was OFFSET BY WAGE DECREASES. this is because stocks, bonds, and housing, their main source of wealth, continued to increase despite the squeeze labor was feeling.

this is why there is no contradiction - the layoffs are part of this squeeze and labor is in a feudal relationship with its creditors. executives in key sectors will offset their losses in rate hikes by squeezing labor. this is why something like Apple stock continues to increase amongst this volatility.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:07

comedyblissoption: Mar 15, 2006

Raccooon posted:

Watching rioting in France.

The US isn�t even to the point of a coherent political movement to make an argument for a different path.

a cop can shoot an unarmed white lady and all the liberals will cheer while calling her a domestic terrorist

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:10

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

as long as the cop isn�t of African descent. that MN cop got put in a hole and he�s never coming out.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:12

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

BANK DEATH

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:18

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

MAKE IT A BLACK FRIDAY

BANK DEATH

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:18

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

also thanks to the smart posters who post good to educate me while I sit here and hoot :tipshat:

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:19

Good Soldier Svejk: Jul 5, 2010

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

MAKE IT A BLACK FRIDAY

BANK DEATH

It's already black-out Friday

Everything should get tanked

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:19

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

dk2m posted:

this dude from kansas lmaoooooooooo

Clark Kent looking rear end in a top hat

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:22

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

Shipon posted:

good, all banks should be as consolidated as possible so when the time comes it becomes easier to nationalize them

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:22

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

webcams for christ posted:

and since then China's manufacturing value added is equal to the US and EU combined (essentially twice the US)

all the while non-manufacturing growth in China being so high that China's manufacturing as a % of GDP has declined by about 10% during the same time frame

(US manufacturing value added as % of GDP in 2021 was 10.71% for reference)

Yeah the Obama admin really was the death knell of Ameocsn hegemony

Which is the one good thing about the Obama admin

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:23

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# ? May 25, 2024 00:20

StealthArcher: Jan 10, 2010

gently caress COREY PERRY posted:

also thanks to the smart posters who post good to educate me while I sit here and hoot

[damnedsday econ]Hoot n Holla Crash The Dolla

# ? Mar 17, 2023 13:24

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