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(Thread IKs: skooma512)
 
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Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

SourKraut posted:

Then again: Pompeii. Check-loving-mate. :colbert:

:negative:

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Shipon
Nov 7, 2005

Xaris posted:

not necessarily. the the "good ol' days" auto-loans were between 36-48-60 month, usually you were paying them off above or at depreciation. most of the time depreciation was significant in the first year or two and then tapered off returning to positive equity. usually stupid luxury blinged-out Sports XL Turbo with all bells & whistle trims would be underwater immediately because they're also dropping $$$$$ bucks for no/little used market value.

when the average auto financing is dragged out to 72-90 month loans, yes absolutely. but now depreciation isn't as bad but also people have been dropping $50k-90 on SUVs and trucks 90-month loans so, well, shits hosed

this is quite old now but gets the point across


depreciation isn't what it used to be for sure, that's one weird part about the calculation is that while the loans have become longer, cars retain their value for longer too. you're not buying a 3 year old car for 40% under its original MSRP anymore, at best that 3 year old car with 50k miles on it might be 10-15% under original MSRP.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Shipon posted:

cars retain their value for longer too. you're not buying a 3 year old car for 40% under its original MSRP anymore, at best that 3 year old car with 50k miles on it might be 10-15% under original MSRP.

honestly it depends on the type. i.e. Toyotas/Honda, particularly priuses, can be like 2011 w/ 200k miles and resell for like 90% of original MSRP. because they're super popular with gig app drivers and meme cars. It gets even worse for things like Leaf which used to retail for like 12k new MSRP with the early-day EV fed rebates and now still sells for like 14k used because hybrids/electric cars have become hugely in-demand, again, particularly with gig workers.

likewise Subaru base models, even over a decade old, will still sell for like 80% because they've also become kinda a conventional wisdom reddit meme car.

white Nissan Altimas are also super popular used cars and ridiculous how much they sell for used.

blinged out domestic Ford/GM SUVS with luxury trim poo poo that retailed for like 55k back in 2015, no. mitsubishi, kia, hyundai, etc, all have very very bad used value except for base-trim sedans and even those are like, no. people are not blowing big bucks to buy some 2013 Ford Escape Sports LX pro-max-HD heated seats for more than maybe 10k maximum. which is still a shitload of money for a 10-year old car, but massive depreciation compared to original retail price. if it was base trim, yeah

the one exception is domestic trucks are still absurdly stupid for used market because america loves truk

e: i suppose stated another way: there's a weird artificial floor on used car prices of like ~7k-10k no matter how old or dogshit beat up they are (within reasonable service life); but, there is also a ceiling on used car prices that generally aren't more than 24k used. And certainly after the pandemic bonanza, the floor went up a loving lot and simultaneously the ceiling went up as well but not as much as the floor went up. So there's a rather narrowly band of very over-inflated cost associated w/ used cars, and how much that depreciation hits (or gained value) really just depends on how much you bought for new. so like there were certain cars you coulda easily bought for 10k-22k new (or used) in 2019 that actually gained value in 2020-1 -- which may be the first time in history that's ever happened

Xaris has issued a correction as of 08:32 on Mar 20, 2023

Rexicon1
Oct 9, 2007

A Shameful Path Led You Here
We love the gently caress out of truck

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Gold up to a 1 year high at over $2k an ounce

Also VIX is creeping up towards that "we're freaking out here" number of 30. 28.26 just now.

forkboy84 has issued a correction as of 08:39 on Mar 20, 2023

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009

Xaris posted:

indeed. in the early 1970s, MIT did LtG modelling predicting big decline around 2040, and empirical observations, 50 years later, to 2020 are remarkably on track.



love that pollution keeps going even as everything else drops

Bitcoin forever

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009

Xaris posted:

i cant remember if this was posted or not but big shocked pikachu face

https://www.automoblog.net/negative-equity-surge-auto-loans/

also i guess this explains carvana's insanely genius business model of paying +$10k more for a sight-unseen used car than it costed when bought new


There was that tidbit about a $1b Subprime auto sale from Santander being cancelled in relation to SVB failing

lol

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/santander-halts-942-million-subprime-auto-abs-sale-amid-turmoil

lmao

fanfic insert has issued a correction as of 08:51 on Mar 20, 2023

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
someone just murdered a landlord during an eviction in Honolulu and that actually happens a lot here. last time it happened the evictee also murdered two cops, and also burned down an entire city block

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Stereotype posted:

someone just murdered a landlord during an eviction in Honolulu and that actually happens a lot here. last time it happened the evictee also murdered two cops, and also burned down an entire city block
:nice:
that's the aloha spirit

reclaim hawai'i from the landlords

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


European bank stocks down an average 3.4% so far, UBS shares are down more than 12%.

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!
hee hee hee

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!
can't believe i got held up with work the day fucken credit suisse "died"

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!
bet those last 500 posts were good content OH WELL I'LL NEVER KNOW

Lessail
Apr 1, 2011

:cry::cry:
tell me how vgk aren't playing like shit again
:cry::cry:
p.s. help my grapes are so sour!
looks like the stocks are going past the bisquick threshold, hold on tight fellas

StealthArcher
Jan 10, 2010




Lessail posted:

looks like the stocks are going past the bisquick threshold, hold on tight fellas

The qhat now

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

Good morning

European stocks are paring some of their losses after plummeting at the bell, but the Europe 600 Banks index is still down 2.5% with UBS leading the way, down over 10%

After losing a cool billion in almost record time the Saudi National Bank is saving face:

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1637705135773171713

US Markets and commentators are betting the PIVOT is here

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1637706273461501952https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1637738875073200128

but European regulators remain hawkish (at least in their language)

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1637719971559092224https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1637714877086158849

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


what does this mean for the future of NEOM

Egg Moron
Jul 21, 2003

the dreams of the delighting void

JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:

what does this mean for the future of NEOM

Neom fulfilled his destiny by returning to the source and resetting the matrix

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Angkor wat was never abandoned. except during war iirc.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
The market sceams for pause

Dystopia Barbarian
Dec 25, 2022

by vyelkin

Xaris posted:



the one exception is domestic trucks are still absurdly stupid for used market because america loves truk
I would add that this ain't just truck dorks trying to look cool anymore, but truck suspensions are actually useful in many inner cities now. What with our crumbling infrastructure producing potholes everywhere that go unrepaired by corrupt city government.

err
Apr 11, 2005

I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

Mr Hootington posted:

The market sceams for pause

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

*mashes both buttons*

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


markets pricing in rate cuts feels like crazy pills.

Is it possible the flight to safety of bonds is implying a rate cut, like, accidentally? just a side effect of people panicking about banks, taking out deposits, using cash to buy bonds, and driving up prices (thus lowering yields)?

err
Apr 11, 2005

I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...
The Fed specifically said they would not cut rates in 2023, but the market is addicted to free money.

19 o'clock
Sep 9, 2004

Excelsior!!!
maybe they can cut rates just for those who really need it? banks and REIT’s for example.

Mr SuperAwesome
Apr 6, 2011

im from the bad post police, and i'm afraid i have bad news
https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1637602924686901249
https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1637604177429012482

anyone insane/rich + liquid enough to try this?

seems like giving banks money during a bank run might just work

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

Digging into the write-off of $17 billion CS AT1 Bonds

Headlines on Sunday leading up to the UBS deal, each only hours apart:





and Bloomberg on the terms:




and it's of course affecting the broader AT1 market:

https://twitter.com/SofiaHCBBG/status/1637691968494112768

EU regulators suggesting this should not be a new precedent:

https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1637774675118809088

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Let's not exaggerate. Things are totally fine.

Jpow just let an entire economy develop around zero interest only to push us to the brink of hyperinflation printing over a recession to then have to raise rates so high, but nowhere near high enough, in an attempt to wipe out workers that this threatens the entire economy but because it was threatened too much too fast we need to go back to printing over whatever is happening.

it makes perfect sense to me as an expert number knower. You just identify a massacred workforce of poors with no assets as having too much money. Because workers drive inflation by getting money. It's right there in the text book. Then you maliciously target these people with financial moves until your own dumb loving quadrillion dollar house of cards the rich have built on top of the economy is threatened. You fix this by hitting the "PRINT MONEY" and "RAISE RATES" buttons in quicker succession to get more bang for your buck.

It's the classic surgical sledgehammer approach. Just tape a scalpel to a couple of sledgehammers. This will allow for unparalleled precision force.

neutral milf hotel
Oct 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy
I bet if the WOKE banks were to revalue the Dinar then all the liquidity issues would just evaporate

:smuggo:

Jel Shaker
Apr 19, 2003

webcams for christ posted:

Digging into the write-off of $17 billion CS AT1 Bonds

Headlines on Sunday leading up to the UBS deal, each only hours apart:





and Bloomberg on the terms:





and it's of course affecting the broader AT1 market:

https://twitter.com/SofiaHCBBG/status/1637691968494112768

EU regulators suggesting this should not be a new precedent:

https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1637774675118809088

this is nearly as funny as that mayor in south korea singlehanded destroying their municipal bond market by refusing to pay the bond holders back for a theme park

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005


Inshallah, the junk bond market collapses today.

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
Credit Suisse that is open in the European markets is down roughly 60% today. The NYSE traded version is down 60% in pre-market.

Curious how this will affect the bailout.

Beached Whale
Jun 27, 2009

The world as will and idea
We're not in a recession

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1637769197932494849

19 o'clock
Sep 9, 2004

Excelsior!!!
we need a bailout to cover those investors and then things will be perfect again until next weekend again

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

Rectal Death Adept posted:

Credit Suisse that is open in the European markets is down roughly 60% today. The NYSE traded version is down 60% in pre-market.

Curious how this will affect the bailout.

currently at 0.76 CHF / share. The final buyout price that UBS agreed to was 0.75 CHF / share (initial offer was 0.25 / share lol). it will be notable if it's trading significantly below or above that number.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


Rectal Death Adept posted:

Credit Suisse that is open in the European markets is down roughly 60% today. The NYSE traded version is down 60% in pre-market.

Curious how this will affect the bailout.

It won't, those numbers are just converging toward the agreed purchase price (which was way lower than Friday's closing price) until the deal formally closes.

err
Apr 11, 2005

I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...
the car situation is so bad, cars are so expensive now and people with low credit scores are missing payments at record levels:


https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/low-income-households-are-falling-behind-on-car-bills

err has issued a correction as of 13:17 on Mar 20, 2023

Pepe Silvia Browne
Jan 1, 2007
it goes it goes it goes it goes it goes

GUILLOTINE

HYUH

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RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

those are the same button

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