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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yes. I'm not sure what's the point that you're trying to make with the cutesy smiley, though, but I'll remind you just in case that I'm not the U.S. President, contrary to any potential beliefs. Nah I was just hinting that this seems like an excuse they had to switch to after "Ukraine doesn't need it" became pretty silly. Probably to cover the concerns of escalation.
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Mar 21, 2023 19:53
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Or it could be another episode of Spanish Leopards, or something else entirely.
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Mar 21, 2023 19:57
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Pope Hilarius II posted:
Hey, Russia is the only country that celebrates its independence from Poland as a state holiday
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Mar 21, 2023 19:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Or it could be another episode of Spanish Leopards, or something else entirely.
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Mar 21, 2023 20:08
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Pope Hilarius II posted:That was a counter-attack. From the russian perspective, winning horrible wars against Europe-conquering empires doesn’t teach you “guess we should weaken the border. All is good.” I don’t see your point.
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Mar 21, 2023 20:38
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Owling Howl posted:Median age and family size were very different then. Ukraine was already aging fast and this war is turning a lot of young people into refugees or corpses... Yeah, just the easy access to contraceptives and both parents working puts a real dampener on population growth. And since it's main backers are themselves doctrinally entrenched in declining birthrates I'm doubtful a post war Ukraine will have the economic freedom to implement some real population growth incentives like good parental benefits, stable jobs and easily accessible good daycare.
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Mar 21, 2023 20:47
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mobby_6kl posted:I had a paragraph about this in a previous post but cut it out for length. Almost all of Europe's defense is there is to keep Russia away. Who else is a threat, Morocco? As well as half of the US stockpiles, aren't they always talking about fighting two wars on two different continents? Well one half of that had have been earmarked for Russia, because other than random Middle-eastern adventures of choice, there's nothing else to do here. I thought the two-war policy was abandoned some time ago. Might be misremembering.
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Mar 21, 2023 22:38
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EasilyConfused posted:I thought the two-war policy was abandoned some time ago. Might be misremembering. The two-front bullshit was officially abandoned during Obama, first term Obama, when I was in school. It was gone long before that. Sorry on behalf of my people that we can’t teleport tanks from the desert with no working parts.
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Mar 21, 2023 23:07
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People were talking about the effectiveness of the M1A1/Leopard MBTs versus Russian T-72s and the like. This video (animated icons, not footage) demonstrates the brutal disparity between Bradley AFVs, let alone M1A1 (I think) tanks versus entrenched Iraqi T-72s. And from the evidence so far, it wouldn't seem that Russian tank commanders or leadership are any better trained. I don't know if an Iraqi T-72 is distinctly different than a current Russian one, so if it's not relevant information let me know.
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Mar 22, 2023 03:11
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Huggybear posted:People were talking about the effectiveness of the M1A1/Leopard MBTs versus Russian T-72s and the like. This video (animated icons, not footage) demonstrates the brutal disparity between Bradley AFVs, let alone M1A1 (I think) tanks versus entrenched Iraqi T-72s. And from the evidence so far, it wouldn't seem that Russian tank commanders or leadership are any better trained. I don't know if an Iraqi T-72 is distinctly different than a current Russian one, so if it's not relevant information let me know. Upgraded Russian T-72s have better optics and additive armor than the ones Iraq had in 1990 or 2003, but the latter won't make a meaningful difference against 25mm sabot, TOW 2-B ATGMs, or 120mm sabot. The better optics may help them acquire and engage targets better. I suspect Ukrainian armor crews are getting longer and better training than Russian armor crews, though.
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Mar 22, 2023 03:28
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https://twitter.com/KvotheTheArcane/status/1638314841487147008
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Mar 22, 2023 03:55
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Ynglaur posted:Upgraded Russian T-72s have better optics and additive armor than the ones Iraq had in 1990 or 2003, but the latter won't make a meaningful difference against 25mm sabot, TOW 2-B ATGMs, or 120mm sabot. The better optics may help them acquire and engage targets better. I suspect Ukrainian armor crews are getting longer and better training than Russian armor crews, though. I seriously question the optics and IR capability of current Russian tanks. I know modern ATGMs likely engage from much further away, and Russian armor does not appear to operate with combined arms, and they are attacking, not defending (which theoretically gives the defender hull down and only presenting frontal and top turret advantage towards attacking enemy if they are smart)...but the Russians should be better at identifying defensive infantry and emplacements prior to attacking even if just with drones. I realize it is partially confirmation bias, but the photos and footage of burnt out tanks in clusters really does look like they are going in blind. Huggybear fucked around with this message at 04:00 on Mar 22, 2023 |
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Mar 22, 2023 03:56
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Hasn’t it been said that the Russian crews lack thermal sights in any numbers in general? Let’s be honest most of the T-72s and 80s that had the most upgraded equipment got destroyed/captured months and months ago or never went to theater in the first place. They could be getting stuff from China to upgrade what they have available but it wouldn’t be in any numbers to make a real difference. From the footage coming out of the hot spots Russia seems to be using fewer tanks in general lately. Part of that is likely because of the weather and that they are fighting mostly in heavily fortified areas but when you do see armor at all it is generally a BMP. Most of what you see anymore is a mixture of human wave attacks, probing scout units and artillery. Russia has been throwing blood and treasure at Bakhmut for what, 6-7 months and have little to show for it other than losing a ton of other territory? As the weather improves and Ukraine gets more goodies things will continue to get more and more bleak for Russia. I honestly don’t even know what objectives Russia are even working toward now. The dream of taking Ukraine is long gone and the longer they keep throwing more and more uneasily replaceable man and material at a failure I don’t think they will be even able to retain 2014 boarders at this point. You don’t even hear Russian propaganda with wild claims anymore like you did last September and October. The recent announcements of equipment that previously was deemed off limits seems to me that you have a lot of players looking to try and end this by the end of the Summer. Politically this will likely start to get dicey in the US by the Fall as the election season starts to heat up. Also I am sure a lot of European countries likely don’t want to have to navigate another Winter with a gas crisis.
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Mar 22, 2023 05:00
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The quoted article says that two mechanised/Bradley battalions and one field artillery battalion (1400) have already completed training and are on the front lines, and that a Bradley battalion, three Stryker battalions, and another field artillery battalion plus brigade staff (2500) are about to finish training in Germany and head back to Ukraine alongside the two Patriot batteries. Wonder where those two "mechanised" (probably with Marders rather than Bradleys) battalions and their tube buddies are right now, if they're already back
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Mar 22, 2023 05:11
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Djarum posted:Hasn’t it been said that the Russian crews lack thermal sights in any numbers in general? Let’s be honest most of the T-72s and 80s that had the most upgraded equipment got destroyed/captured months and months ago or never went to theater in the first place. They could be getting stuff from China to upgrade what they have available but it wouldn’t be in any numbers to make a real difference. Won't every Winter going forward be easier for Europe to deal with since they basically had to quit using Russian gas cold turkey? And I think they basically found other sources or alternative types of energy. Besides if the war ended tomorrow I still don't think Europe would go back to using Russian gas for a long time if ever. At least I hope not.
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Mar 22, 2023 05:14
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Charliegrs posted:Won't every Winter going forward be easier for Europe to deal with since they basically had to quit using Russian gas cold turkey? And I think they basically found other sources or alternative types of energy. Besides if the war ended tomorrow I still don't think Europe would go back to using Russian gas for a long time if ever. At least I hope not. I believe that they stockpiled before the winter coupled with it being very mild. I am sure someone can give a better answer to it all. The bigger issue isn’t that they would be as reliant upon Russian gas anymore as much as the war has caused prices to skyrocket. There are other causes as well to the massive worldwide inflation in general but I have several friends that live in Europe that had to ration their heat this winter mainly due to cost.
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Mar 22, 2023 05:20
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:The two-front bullshit was officially abandoned during Obama, first term Obama, when I was in school. It was gone long before that. Regardless of the policy, I'm still very skeptical of this being a capability limitation rather than desire. Russia is the top contenders to start poo poo besides China and this is the easiest and cheapest way to address that threat. We've seen how much forces could get tied down in Iraq1 (700k troops), 2 (>200k troops) and Afghanistan (150k) without it actually an issue in terms of deterring other adversaries. None would be involved here outside of logistics. Let's see how much firepower was dedicated to liberating the very geopolitically important ally that is Kuwait: quote:The U.S. VII Corps was the primary combat formation of the coalition forces.[181] It was a formidable fighting force consisting of 1,487 tanks, 1,384 infantry fighting vehicles, 568 artillery pieces, 132 MLRS, 8 missile launchers, and 242 attack helicopters.[182] It had a total troop strength of 146,321 troops. tl;dr: imo at some point it seems that the consensus has been reached to face this with the least amount of  possible probably due to a few thing that I don't really think should be an actual factor in this, but it is what it is.
Of course, we live in a borscht-based society. Djarum posted:I believe that they stockpiled before the winter coupled with it being very mild. I am sure someone can give a better answer to it all.  https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/16/natural-gas-futures-in-europe-plunge-15-today-down-84-from-crazy-spike/ I might've turned the heating on a few days this winter and used an electric blanket instead a bit. It wasn't really too necessary this year. A few articles on the Patriot and M1A1 deliveries that are more detailed than the regular mainstream media: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-patriot-air-defenses-to-arrive-sooner-than-anticipated https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/m1a1-abrams-variant-will-be-given-to-ukraine-to-expedite-tank-deliveries
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Mar 22, 2023 11:20
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Huggybear posted:I seriously question the optics and IR capability of current Russian tanks. I know modern ATGMs likely engage from much further away, and Russian armor does not appear to operate with combined arms, and they are attacking, not defending (which theoretically gives the defender hull down and only presenting frontal and top turret advantage towards attacking enemy if they are smart)...but the Russians should be better at identifying defensive infantry and emplacements prior to attacking even if just with drones. I realize it is partially confirmation bias, but the photos and footage of burnt out tanks in clusters really does look like they are going in blind. Russian MIC relied on imported french optics/thermals for its vehicles and that source was cut off from 2014, homegrown industry cant supply enough to equip and modernize whole park. Especially with new production and unpacked conserved stuff during the war. Speaking of de-mothballing, its happening https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1638472120534458368?t=8lheU5Y59zcjiM4phbEvIg&s=19 fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 11:27 on Mar 22, 2023 |
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Mar 22, 2023 11:24
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https://www.ft.com/content/137479f8-c748-4953-9efa-affba553695a Ukraine clinches $15.6bn IMF loan quote:The IMF has struck a deal with Ukraine to provide a $15.6bn loan and a long-awaited financial lifeline to Kyiv as it tries to shore up its economy in the face of Russia’s full-blown invasion of the country. Pretty big news, and as far as I remember somewhat unprecedented. To say those are risky loans is a bit of an understatement, but they are important in keeping Ukraine running. From the way it is worded it seems people expect Ukraine to rebound quickly, or am I reading too much into it?
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Mar 22, 2023 11:40
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Antigravitas posted:From the way it is worded it seems people expect Ukraine to rebound quickly, or am I reading too much into it? I think it's very likely Ukraine will be getting a lot of support to recover from many different places to help recovery, but with how long it will take to recover, I mean we still don't know how long the war will continue and under what conditions it will end. I think there is far to many unknowns for anyone to say anything reliable at the moment. But I mean however it ends Ukraine will need to recover, and at the moment they need funds to keep on going, so defiantly all for this.
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Mar 22, 2023 11:52
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mobby_6kl posted:tl;dr: imo at some point it seems that the consensus has been reached to face this with the least amount of quote:Gas prices are down to pre-war levels. Restocking might be challenging as last year we still had some russian gas, but we do have most of the year to figure it out.
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Mar 22, 2023 11:57
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Djarum posted:Also I am sure a lot of European countries likely don’t want to have to navigate another Winter with a gas crisis. It's not that bad. While consumption-cutting was helped by an extraordinarily mild winter, gas prices are unlikely to reach even a half of what they peaked at last year.
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Mar 22, 2023 11:59
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Grey Area posted:The lowest effort is nothing. The over €100 billion in aid Ukraine has received is a hell of a lot more than nothing. As for prices, fine, sure, but twice isn't as much of an issue as 10 times.
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Mar 22, 2023 12:04
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Grey Area posted:The lowest effort is nothing. The over €100 billion in aid Ukraine has received is a hell of a lot more than nothing. You can't just magic up gas pipelines, compressors, etc. Russia's whole gas infrastructure for 50 years has been about shifting it westwards to Europe, you can't turn that around in a year even if Putin had made that effort a priority, which he has very much not. Weaker Gas demand in China is probably related to the economic hangovers of their zero-covid measures and the large covid wave that followed.
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Mar 22, 2023 12:08
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fatherboxx posted:Russian MIC relied on imported french optics/thermals for its vehicles and that source was cut off from 2014, homegrown industry cant supply enough to equip and modernize whole park. Especially with new production and unpacked conserved stuff during the war. Pretty sure the French continued after 2014, just didn't renew. Anyway, it would actually be somewhat impressive if they can get those T-5x to move, given they are something like 60 to 70 years old, though I suppose a tank is less likely to be rusted through than a car with all that armor.
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Mar 22, 2023 13:13
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OddObserver posted:Pretty sure the French continued after 2014, just didn't renew. They made a whole lot of them, and those on the rail cars seem to be in pretty good shape, although they are not heavily upgraded and don't include (semimodern) basics like a laser rangefinder. I do wonder what the Russians will do with them. I can think of a few possible options: 1) Ersatz self-propelled artillery. This war has seen a substantial development in drone-spotted indirect fire from tanks. The T-54s aren't able to do much as tanks, but they could be somewhat effective as 100mm self propelled guns. They would not perform all that worse in this role than a more modern tank, since most of the fancy rangefinders, sights, and ballistic computers are useful only for direct fire. 2) Rebuilding as some kind of infantry fighting vehicle. The Israelis rebuilt a bunch of captured T-54s as super-heavy IFVs; there's probably some utility for a 40 ton IFV that's armored like a tank to try to penetrate some of the heavy defensive lines that are being built. 3) Upgrading them for use as tanks. I think this is a bit unlikely as the Russians generally lack equipment to upgrade to modern standards, although I think it would be possible to use various parts bin pieces from more modern T-55s to upgrade these tanks. This would necessitate those T-55s being mechanically in shambles but with working laser rangefinders, sights, and stabilizers, which seems unlikely. 4) Deploying them as-is in rear area security units / non-frontline theaters to free up other resources to be used at the front. Reasonably smart, but I'm not sure what exchanges could be practically made. 5) Deploying them as-is to make good on losses in front line units. The first one actually makes a fair bit of sense so I expect (given the Russian's overall level of coordination and competence) to see these things leading an attack on Bakhmut within the week.
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Mar 22, 2023 13:46
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100mm gun? So yet another ammo type. I guess a lot depends on how much useable ammo is stocked for that...
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Mar 22, 2023 13:57
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OddObserver posted:100mm gun? So yet another ammo type. I guess a lot depends on how much useable ammo is stocked for that...
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Mar 22, 2023 14:03
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1638500383688409090?cxt=HHwWhIC24d7aj70tAAAA Zelensky apparently did another visit to Bakhmut recently. Pretty ballsy and indicative that Ukrainians still maintain good control over the access into the city? It does seem like Russian progress has been stalled last few days. And on T-5x talk, how would they function as IFVs? Isn't the point of the IFV to transport some amount of troops? The Israelis ripped out the turret and the engine, if you don't do that there won't be space for anybody. I do wonder where these end up and how soon they'll show up on the loss counter.
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Mar 22, 2023 14:14
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mobby_6kl posted:How many will Ukraine have? I think at least 3 different calibers and way more types of each Ukraine is running 100mm (towed AT guns), 115mm (captured T-62), 125mm (captured T-72/80/90, T-64/84), 152mm (Soviet artillery), 155mm (NATO artillery), and 203mm (Soviet artillery), and adding NATO 105mm, French 105mm, UK 120mm, and German 120mm tank guns. Then there's the different types of MLRS (HIMARS, Grad, Smerch), a variety of IFV ammo(BMP, Marder, Bradley, Scorpion), and even small arms ammo (7.62, 5.56/5.45, .50, 9mm), all duplicated east and west. Which is a lot, but is a result of the emergency nature of their mish mash forces. NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 14:21 on Mar 22, 2023 |
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Mar 22, 2023 14:15
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Nothingtoseehere posted:You can't just magic up gas pipelines, compressors, etc. Russia's whole gas infrastructure for 50 years has been about shifting it westwards to Europe, you can't turn that around in a year even if Putin had made that effort a priority, which he has very much not. Weaker Gas demand in China is probably related to the economic hangovers of their zero-covid measures and the large covid wave that followed. I deal in chemical solvents for a living and I can tell you natural gas is the biggest input into producing pretty much all kinds of chemicals you could think of that go into every day life. It's incredibly versatile as a feedstock and also cheaper with better yields than crude. China's domestic demand fell off a cliff since Q4 of last year and they've been dumping their solvent products on western markets at record low prices. Even on commodities like solvents that's not enough to fully absorb the demand. There's also major economic headwinds as countries like the US begin decoupling their economies from the Chinese market. Even now labor costs in places like Mexico have become significantly lower than Chinese labor costs with obviously shorter logistic tails since you can use railways and barges to move materials. All this is to say that over the next 10 years Latin America is going to be a major exporter of manufactured goods to the US in ways China was during the last 20 years. Mexico is leading that pack with the quality of their education system and size of their population sufficient enough to generate substantial savings. The whole concept is called "near shoring" and it's basically the future of international trade. China isn't going through an economic hangover. China is in for a prolonged period of economic malaise.
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Mar 22, 2023 14:18
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NTRabbit posted:Ukraine is running 100mm (towed AT guns), 115mm (captured T-62), 125mm (captured T-72/80/90, T-64/84), 152mm (Soviet artillery), 155mm (NATO artillery), and 203mm (Soviet artillery), and adding NATO 105mm, French 105mm, UK 120mm, and German 120mm tank guns.  WarpedLichen posted:And on T-5x talk, how would they function as IFVs? Isn't the point of the IFV to transport some amount of troops? The Israelis ripped out the turret and the engine, if you don't do that there won't be space for anybody. I do wonder where these end up and how soon they'll show up on the loss counter. Kraftwerk posted:I deal in chemical solvents for a living and I can tell you natural gas is the biggest input into producing pretty much all kinds of chemicals you could think of that go into every day life. It's incredibly versatile as a feedstock and also cheaper with better yields than crude. China's domestic demand fell off a cliff since Q4 of last year and they've been dumping their solvent products on western markets at record low prices. Even on commodities like solvents that's not enough to fully absorb the demand. There's also major economic headwinds as countries like the US begin decoupling their economies from the Chinese market. Even now labor costs in places like Mexico have become significantly lower than Chinese labor costs with obviously shorter logistic tails since you can use railways and barges to move materials. All this is to say that over the next 10 years Latin America is going to be a major exporter of manufactured goods to the US in ways China was during the last 20 years. Mexico is leading that pack with the quality of their education system and size of their population sufficient enough to generate substantial savings. The whole concept is called "near shoring" and it's basically the future of international trade. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 14:24 on Mar 22, 2023 |
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Mar 22, 2023 14:20
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NTRabbit posted:Ukraine is running 100mm (towed AT guns), 115mm (captured T-62), 125mm (captured T-72/80/90, T-64/84), 152mm (Soviet artillery), 155mm (NATO artillery), and 203mm (Soviet artillery), and adding NATO 105mm, French 105mm, UK 120mm, and German 120mm tank guns. Probably some 122mm artillery still around, too
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Mar 22, 2023 14:22
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fatherboxx posted:Speaking of de-mothballing, its happening Very interesting to see. Russia only had 600 left combined in reserve + storage in 2013 according to wikipedia (and presumably significantly lower than 100% of those are actually usable in 2023), so they won't be lasting too long if they're destined for the front.
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Mar 22, 2023 14:34
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mobby_6kl posted:Hopefully Ukraine can become this for Europe too, we were already somewhat on the way after 2014 Yup, Ukraine was a major source of stuff like tires and wire harnesses for European automotive suppliers. Again I've always been super impressed at how well educated and adaptive Ukrainians are. They improvise in creative ways and will do a lot of good work that makes investing in them a great payoff if Russia stops bombing the place. With any luck the gas fields will still be usable and they'll be another source of energy from a safer place to Europe. With any luck they'll have a good European style social safety network of Pensions, disability benefits, housing programs, healthcare and education so they can keep going and focus on repopulating. If anyone deserves it, they do. I bet the US Army will be surprised at whatever combat mods and tactics Ukrainian soldiers will come up with for their Bradleys and so on.
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Mar 22, 2023 14:37
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WarpedLichen posted:And on T-5x talk, how would they function as IFVs? Isn't the point of the IFV to transport some amount of troops? The Israelis ripped out the turret and the engine, if you don't do that there won't be space for anybody. I do wonder where these end up and how soon they'll show up on the loss counter. That's precisely what I was suggesting - rebuilding them as a Russian Achzarit. It would be a fair amount of work, but it makes a lot more sense than throwing T-54s in to combat. OddObserver posted:100mm gun? So yet another ammo type. I guess a lot depends on how much useable ammo is stocked for that... I would imagine they have quite a bit lying around; the DT-10 was produced for a long time and the Russians don't throw things away. Whether that ammunition is any good is obviously a different consideration.
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Mar 22, 2023 15:49
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WarpedLichen posted:https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1638500383688409090?cxt=HHwWhIC24d7aj70tAAAA Pro tier trolling Putin after his night visit to Mariupol
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Mar 22, 2023 15:51
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Kraftwerk posted:I deal in chemical solvents for a living and I can tell you natural gas is the biggest input into producing pretty much all kinds of chemicals you could think of that go into every day life. It's incredibly versatile as a feedstock and also cheaper with better yields than crude. China's domestic demand fell off a cliff since Q4 of last year and they've been dumping their solvent products on western markets at record low prices. Even on commodities like solvents that's not enough to fully absorb the demand. There's also major economic headwinds as countries like the US begin decoupling their economies from the Chinese market. Even now labor costs in places like Mexico have become significantly lower than Chinese labor costs with obviously shorter logistic tails since you can use railways and barges to move materials. All this is to say that over the next 10 years Latin America is going to be a major exporter of manufactured goods to the US in ways China was during the last 20 years. Mexico is leading that pack with the quality of their education system and size of their population sufficient enough to generate substantial savings. The whole concept is called "near shoring" and it's basically the future of international trade. It is also why China is trying to cozy up with Russia as much as possible. I assume they will try and prop them up as long as they can as well. If Putin and the government there collpases there will be a massive void which will no doubt be filled by pro-Westerners. Eastern Russia would be the new goldmine effectively since it could easily become the new China. You have ports that could give you faster shipping to North America coupled with train lines to ship to Europe. You have a better work force there as well. China losing sphere of influence is going to cause them to behave more recklessly. Also it is unknown how they will react as they have the oncoming economic downturn and the large middle class population that has developed over the last 20 years has all of the luxuries they have become accustomed to dry up. That is all a discussion for another thread though.
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Mar 22, 2023 16:03
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Definitely not related to Putin's arrest warrant, 17 Ukrainian children returned to Ukraine from Russia and occupied territories. https://www.facebook.com/SaveUkraine.center/videos/1078410300216364/ quote:Today, when children return to their homeland, we are once again deeply moved. They are tired from the journey and prolonged stress, but happy to be home.
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Mar 22, 2023 16:31
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NTRabbit posted:Ukraine is running 100mm (towed AT guns), 115mm (captured T-62), 125mm (captured T-72/80/90, T-64/84), 152mm (Soviet artillery), 155mm (NATO artillery), and 203mm (Soviet artillery), and adding NATO 105mm, French 105mm, UK 120mm, and German 120mm tank guns. Don't forget Rheinmetall is trying hard to add Ukraine as another market for their future Leo-3 thing. That tank has a 130mm tank gun, and if that prototype ever makes into serial production before the war ends, Ukraine will probably end up buying some of them.
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Mar 22, 2023 19:50
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