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skooma512)
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It's going to be +25bps because that's the "boring" option that allows talking heads to (nonsensically) call the pivot and calm markets without actually stopping the march toward a 5% or greater terminal rate. A true pivot means we're going off the cliff right now and everyone knows it.
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Mar 22, 2023 17:22
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| # ? May 23, 2024 14:22 |
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Paradoxish posted:A true pivot means we're going off the cliff right now and everyone knows it. They can't even fake the pivot either because pausing now will skyrocket inflation and undo the meager efforts they've done in the past year+.
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Mar 22, 2023 17:25
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I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the  s
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Mar 22, 2023 17:26
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Iron Crowned posted:I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the 
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Mar 22, 2023 17:26
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very excited to watch The Assassination of the US Economy by the Coward Jerome Powell
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Mar 22, 2023 17:28
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credit pisse will save the economy
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Mar 22, 2023 17:28
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Popoto posted:what's everyone's bets? Casey Finnigan posted:25 bps so they don't look like they're spineless and can pretend like the banking system is actually stable I think they split the difference. 12.5 bps 
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Mar 22, 2023 17:30
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Popoto posted:what's everyone's bets? Jerome Powell will bathe in the blood of minimum wage workers while babbling about inflation targets.
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Mar 22, 2023 17:31
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If interest rates are supposed to be ahead of inflation then we need another 250bps/2.5% to hit their obviously incorrect figures or another 1500bps/15% to get somewhere close to real inflation Looking forward to the rate pause
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Mar 22, 2023 17:32
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they're gonna raise it by .25 but their keyboard is low battery so they miss the . and raise it 25 full points so the new rate will be 29.5%
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Mar 22, 2023 17:33
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fanfic insert posted:they're gonna raise it by .25 but their keyboard is low battery so they miss the . and raise it 25 full points so the new rate will be 29.5% this would be terrible and yet entertaining because they would instantly crash the economy
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Mar 22, 2023 17:35
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SKULL.GIF posted:They can't even fake the pivot either because pausing now will skyrocket inflation and undo the meager efforts they've done in the past year+. Honestly, since we are operating under a durable and systemic labor shortage in the first place, a "high inflation" environment driven by low interest rates is probably preferable for workers to one where they are using demand destruction primarily to put downward pressure on wages
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Mar 22, 2023 17:40
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I think the chance of 0.5% is higher than 0, especially given Powell's comments just before the banking crisis kicked off. If I had to bet, I'd bet 0.25%... but I think the markets may be off on this one, partially because the flight to safety from the banking crisis drove down rates, making it kind of a chicken-and-egg thing divorced from jpow's whims.
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Mar 22, 2023 17:46
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They will -.25% for maximum fun
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Mar 22, 2023 17:48
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Jpow is an Aquarius and his horoscope included this tidbit: "The hours between 12:00pm and 2:00 pm are auspicious for you."
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Mar 22, 2023 17:52
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The Fed should meet like the papal conclave, and have various colors of smoke emerge from a chimney for different rate increases
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Mar 22, 2023 17:52
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https://twitter.com/jesserpound/status/1638575680743940096
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Mar 22, 2023 17:53
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hey quick q... have they tried taxing the rich?
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Mar 22, 2023 18:00
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HAIL eSATA-n posted:hey quick q... have they tried taxing the rich? they did that once and rich people didnt like it so now we're here. when you think about it taxing the rich got us in this mess. better not do it again.
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Mar 22, 2023 18:01
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HAIL eSATA-n posted:hey quick q... have they tried taxing the rich? oh heavens no, that's ludicrous
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Mar 22, 2023 18:01
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HAIL eSATA-n posted:hey quick q... have they tried taxing the rich? are you a loving STUPID? I have no time for unserious thinkers in this goddamn thread!
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Mar 22, 2023 18:04
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SKULL.GIF posted:For anyone curious, this link has the current market odds of what Jerome will do in 2 hours: https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor I agree with the market, there is an 87% chance of a 25 bps increase.
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Mar 22, 2023 18:04
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Morbus posted:Honestly, since we are operating under a durable and systemic labor shortage in the first place, a "high inflation" environment driven by low interest rates is probably preferable for workers to one where they are using demand destruction primarily to put downward pressure on wages I don't think this would happen anymore. My brother has been job seeking for over a year and in the past few months, the job offers wage salary has been smaller and smaller compared to last year. The great resignation period is over, you cannot just quit and find a higher paying job that easily anymore
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Mar 22, 2023 18:04
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HAIL eSATA-n posted:hey quick q... have they tried taxing the rich? CITIZEN! REPORT FOR COMPULSORY REEDUCATION!
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Mar 22, 2023 18:05
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indeed is laying off 15% of the company indeed they do (not need their employees)
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Mar 22, 2023 18:06
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Also wages weren't ever increasing enough to outpace inflation for more than brief periods here and there, so I don't think a persistent inflationary environment would really be good for most workers over the long run. Obviously it's laughable to suggest the Fed is basing their rate hikes on what's good for workers, but just running forward at a persistent 5-6% would probably be disastrous.
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Mar 22, 2023 18:07
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1bps
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Mar 22, 2023 18:07
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burn it down Jay
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Mar 22, 2023 18:08
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love dotcom 2.0
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Mar 22, 2023 18:09
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indeed sucks rear end anyways
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Mar 22, 2023 18:09
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Paradoxish posted:Also wages weren't ever increasing enough to outpace inflation for more than brief periods here and there, so I don't think a persistent inflationary environment would really be good for most workers over the long run. Obviously it's laughable to suggest the Fed is basing their rate hikes on what's good for workers, but just running forward at a persistent 5-6% would probably be disastrous. i had a single raise that basically put me on track to maintain with inflation for about 2-3 years and lucked out tremendously. so long as i dont get fired ahh...
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Mar 22, 2023 18:09
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no one has any idea what to do lol
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Mar 22, 2023 18:09
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Pepe Silvia Browne posted:no one has any idea what to do lol companies will push inflation to the brink without realizing it and utterly collapse demand with record high interest rates which makes debt impossible to get
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Mar 22, 2023 18:10
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A rate pause is the quiet way of saying "we're hosed" so that's what I'm rooting for
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Mar 22, 2023 18:10
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NeonPunk posted:I don't think this would happen anymore. My brother has been job seeking for over a year and in the past few months, the job offers wage salary has been smaller and smaller compared to last year. that's okay. if they don't pay enough then maybe the job wasnt that important anyway.
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Mar 22, 2023 18:10
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Pepe Silvia Browne posted:no one has any idea what to do lol I do
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Mar 22, 2023 18:11
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what do
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Mar 22, 2023 18:11
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Pepe Silvia Browne posted:what do Nothing that the idiots want to do that's for sure.
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Mar 22, 2023 18:12
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Millennials grew up during a home price lull? Are they just making poo poo up now? The oldest millennials were in their late twenties when the 2007 real estate bubble popped.
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Mar 22, 2023 18:13
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| # ? May 23, 2024 14:22 |
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The next 12 months is going to be capital flight of the regional banks into the large "too big to fail" banks with the fed panicking about whether or not to push the "cripple the poor" button. Yellen doomed financial headlines for the next year by saying "LOL no only the big banks get unlimited insurance". It's like these motherfuckers lack object permanence.
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Mar 22, 2023 18:13
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