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Blut posted:Very interesting to see. Russia only had 600 left combined in reserve + storage in 2013 according to wikipedia (and presumably significantly lower than 100% of those are actually usable in 2023), so they won't be lasting too long if they're destined for the front. Germany recently had to do something similar when suddenly, Scholz wanted to give Ukraine all the tanks, instead of just Leo-2s. Hundreds of Leo-1s from our old industry stockpiles are being prepared for the transfer to Ukraine, and it's a huge amount of work and a lot of the tanks will probably end up being torn apart to get the others running. And those T-54s and T-55s are even older than Leo-1s. I shudder to think how much work it will be to get a significant number of them back into action. I'll haphazard a guess that for every tank pulled successfully out of storage, there's at least one that had to be turned into spare parts to make this possible.
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Mar 22, 2023 19:56
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Libluini posted:Don't forget Rheinmetall is trying hard to add Ukraine as another market for their future Leo-3 thing. That tank has a 130mm tank gun, and if that prototype ever makes into serial production before the war ends, Ukraine will probably end up buying some of them. KF51 is currently a vaporware attempt to make up for the individual MGCS design proposals that Rheinmetall lost to the French.
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Mar 22, 2023 19:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:KF51 is currently a vaporware attempt to make up for the individual MGCS design proposals that Rheinmetall lost to the French. sure, that's why I said "trying" 
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Mar 22, 2023 20:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:KF51 is currently a vaporware attempt to make up for the individual MGCS design proposals that Rheinmetall lost to the French.
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Mar 22, 2023 20:19
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evil_bunnY posted:I thought rheinmetall got 50% of the german work share? MGCS seems like super vaporware as well, with the only hardware being a leo2 hull mated to a Leclerc autoloading turret/gun. I'm not sure what do the statistics work out to, but my understanding is that Rheinmetall is very unhappy with their end of the bargain. Maybe it's 50% by items, but then they're doing the tank toilet when France is doing the gun? Either way, everything that I've seen about KF51 suggests that it's a loss-recouping project for Rheinmetall's participation in MGCS.
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Mar 22, 2023 20:25
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Libluini posted:I'll haphazard a guess that for every tank pulled successfully out of storage, there's at least one that had to be turned into spare parts to make this possible. I'd be surprised if they were actually getting one fully operational T-54/T-55 out of every two mothballed tanks. I'd guess the ratio of working tanks to donor scrap piles is a lot higher than that.
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Mar 22, 2023 23:13
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They better burn quite a few of the existing Leo2 stock in Ukraine if they wanna sell hundreds of new build new model tanks with the Turks and Koreans pushing into the market. Not sure who's supposed to buy all these tanks.
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Mar 22, 2023 23:55
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aphid_licker posted:They better burn quite a few of the existing Leo2 stock in Ukraine if they wanna sell hundreds of new build new model tanks with the Turks and Koreans pushing into the market. Not sure who's supposed to buy all these tanks. ... Are they even capable of producing hundreds these days?
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Mar 23, 2023 00:43
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OddObserver posted:... Are they even capable of producing hundreds these days? I assume if they're going to the trouble of developing an entire new type of tank that that's their ambition at least
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Mar 23, 2023 00:46
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OddObserver posted:... Are they even capable of producing hundreds these days? Probably not *right now*. Unless you're the US nobody is dumping the money in to keep an MBT production line perpetually open. Within the next few years, yes, they probably could have a production line churning out reasonably large numbers of a modern MBT. If somebody throws the money at them to do it. If European stocks of existing modern tanks are too tight to support increasing re-armament of post-war "places that border Russia" demand, it might even happen! Warbadger fucked around with this message at 04:18 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 04:11
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Every so often the idea that 'the EU should have an army' gets tossed around. Last time I recall serious discussion was when Trump was loving NATO's credibility into the ground. If Russian adventurism causes this idea to actually crystallize then there will be plenty of demand for new MBTs.
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Mar 23, 2023 05:16
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OddObserver posted:... Are they even capable of producing hundreds these days?
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Mar 23, 2023 06:37
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DTurtle posted:The totally real and realistic plan for building the totally real tank by Rheinmetall has the go ahead from the German and Ukrainian governments coming within the next two months. Construction of the new factory in Ukraine would finish by the end of 2024. Production would then be 400 tanks a year. You can tell this is a good idea because building a new tank factory *in* Ukraine in 2023 lol
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Mar 23, 2023 06:48
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The Lone Badger posted:Every so often the idea that 'the EU should have an army' gets tossed around. Last time I recall serious discussion was when Trump was loving NATO's credibility into the ground. Not to bog the thread down with EU talk, but I feel like having an EU army, that would likely be tied to the cooperation of every member state unanimously, is going to be a non-starter when your primary aggressor country has heads of state that are sympathetic to them and will vote against the deployment of that army's resources. See Orbán's blocking of the statement on the ICC warrant, or Turkey holding up SWE/FIN NATO accession for reasons why this might not be the best idea.
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Mar 23, 2023 06:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I'm not sure what do the statistics work out to, but my understanding is that Rheinmetall is very unhappy with their end of the bargain. Maybe it's 50% by items, but then they're doing the tank toilet when France is doing the gun? Either way, everything that I've seen about KF51 suggests that it's a loss-recouping project for Rheinmetall's participation in MGCS.
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Mar 23, 2023 08:50
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Warbadger posted:If somebody throws the money at them to do it. If European stocks of existing modern tanks are too tight to support increasing re-armament of post-war "places that border Russia" demand, it might even happen!
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Mar 23, 2023 08:54
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evil_bunnY posted:I'd love to read whatever pieces you read about this You can probably put "Rheinmetall" and "Süddeutsche" into Google to find something. Süddeutsche had an article about this some time ago. I'd give you a link, but I'm phoneposting
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Mar 23, 2023 10:14
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evil_bunnY posted:I'd love to read whatever pieces you read about this I'd say my assumptions/opinion on this is a mix of both press and posts here. As far as the press is concerned: “KNDS is effectively in charge” [of MGCS] – https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ruestungskonzern-rheinmetall-praesentiert-neuen-kampfpanzer-panther/28420204.html KF51 NATO market at “at 500–800 or more vehicles in 2025–35” – https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/rheinmetall-identifies-markets-for-kf51-panther-tank Corporate and Main Gun headings – https://euro-sd.com/2023/01/articles/29122/main-ground-combat-system-mgcs-a-status-report/ Basically, my understanding goes so that Rheinmetall spent a bunch of R&D for stuff like 130 mm cannon and whatever else, and then found out that it's the third wheel for KNDS. If you then take stock of MGCS evidently being in the default development/graft hell for defence super projects, and the incremental EMBT demonstrators of the past couple of years, Rheinmetall's ambitions are probably to compete with the MGCS. That might be a tall order, and could have all sorts of alternative resolutions, like whining enough to have the German government reassert over the work distribution, but just cobbling a bunch of stuff together in the meantime to make some money really is not. This war obviously makes a lot of difference for the KF51 if Rheinmetall can finish the tank. There's going to be both more local interest, and a possible option of just selling like a thousand of them to Ukraine. But that doesn't change the design's origin story, which to me looks like a spiteful MGCS affair. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:25 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 10:19
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Mederlock posted:Not to bog the thread down with EU talk, but I feel like having an EU army, that would likely be tied to the cooperation of every member state unanimously, is going to be a non-starter when your primary aggressor country has heads of state that are sympathetic to them and will vote against the deployment of that army's resources. See Orbán's blocking of the statement on the ICC warrant, or Turkey holding up SWE/FIN NATO accession for reasons why this might not be the best idea. EU military talk seems pretty relevant to the general movement of this thread, although I guess Cinci can arbitrate on how far that goes. But in any case this is always going to be a problem, no matter how expansive or tiny your military alliance. Turkey wasn't holding up Sweden and Finland due to any affinity for Russia, and I doubt Hungary would be relevant enough to actually hold anything up even if it genuinely wanted to. Hungary wasn't getting a lot of pressure because Orban has been giving public statements for months that Hungary would ratify both countries' applications, so it was obvious that they were going to approve both/either the moment Turkey decided. I think other than Turkey, Croatia's president was the only one that threatened to veto Sweden or Finland? In practice I think every country in NATO that is not the US, Britain, France, Germany, or Turkey knows that it doesn't actually get a veto, at least not for something that affects the bloc as a whole. Probably Croatia and Montenegro would get a seat at the parents' table for discussion if Bosnia ever tried to join (E: wow, Bosnia has been in talks since 2018? Guess they'll have to figure out the Bosnia-Srpska issue before that), but I don't think Luxembourg and Montenegro are going to be the intransigent holdouts against the entry of Ukraine into NATO during the final 2032 accession talks. Saladman fucked around with this message at 10:22 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 10:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I'd say my assumptions/opinion on this is a mix of both press and posts here. As far as the press is concerned: Rheinmetall will be a real annoying prick in the side of MGCS if they can actual find a customer for KF51.
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Mar 23, 2023 10:30
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evil_bunnY posted:Poland's the only place actually throwing money at tanks. This war isn't over.
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Mar 23, 2023 12:16
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Slovakia says that four Migs are in Ukraine, definitely good news. https://spectator.sme.sk/c/23149983/slovakia-sends-first-fighter-jets-to-ukraine.html Theirs had some NATO compatible upgrades installed so it could be very helpful if it allows deploying some western weapons from them.
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Mar 23, 2023 16:17
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Finnish defense minister says Finland sends three more Leopard 2's to Ukraine in the latest arms package. These are equipped with mine clearing gear like the first three ones.
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Mar 23, 2023 16:29
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An interesting rumour: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1638947351304740877 Seems really unlikely? But I'm seeing it from a couple of people now. Withdrawing from this location seems like the last thing Russia would do with an impending Ukrainian offensive. *edit* tweet was deleted, but it's the same info as the post below this vv Chalks fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 18:04
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I was seeing a lot of reports that Russians have left Nova Kakhovka, which is on the left bank of Dniepr. Now it's confirmed by AFU's General Staff https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5nJd58nTcbXGSvYBTe69DXdzTxSF5iQHQpCH9xu4qho9QuQ2oGUg4Vba3aurhDsl quote:As of 22 March 2023, all units of the occupying army stationed in the village of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, left the town. This was preceded by a raids of the nearest residences of the local population for the purpose of plundering. The occupiers "confiscated" large quantities of household and electronic appliances, jewellery, clothing items and mobile phones from the civilian population. My guess is this a large scale rotation, and they are about to be sent to Bakhmut or Avdiivka, but it's strange that apparently all of them left like that.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:09
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What are the chances of Ukraine doing a DDay over Dnipro while constantly false-flagging the Zaporozhye/Luhansk direction before this? 
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Mar 23, 2023 18:12
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Paladinus posted:I was seeing a lot of reports that Russians have left Nova Kakhovka, which is on the left bank of Dniepr. Now it's confirmed by AFU's General Staff funny, def mon literally just posted: https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1638950820694597645 quote:Calm down. There is no liberation of Nova Kakhovka. e: unless that's a sarcastic reference i dont get. e2: no he's saying it's bullshit as always i guess let's wait and see. but it does seem at least like RU is moving a bunch of troops around to reinforce the attack on avdiivka
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Mar 23, 2023 18:13
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boofhead posted:funny, def mon literally just posted: I think it's pretty crazy to call it a "liberation" when the rumour is that Russia has left, not that Ukraine has crossed the river and occupied the city, so that may be what DefMon is saying. It doesn't seem to make sense at all though, Russia doesn't have any reason to do this and it's very dangerous. It's almost weird enough to look like a bizarre trap.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:17
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There is a difference between Russia moving troops away and Ukraine being able to put troops there when there is a giant river in the way.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:18
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It's definitely not liberation, since AFU don't control the town. But it's not impossible that Russian soldiers, maybe not all but most of them, just left for some reason.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:19
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OddObserver posted:There is a difference between Russia moving troops away and Ukraine being able to put troops there when there is a giant river in the way. This is at the dam though, which is damaged but it's not like the barge chain Russia had to assemble at Kherson.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:20
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The original statement it seems was that the occupiers left the place:zone posted:https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1638943466645233679 Not the same thing as liberated I guess but a good first step. There have been rumors of russian preparing to abandon some if not all of Kherson, even still it could be bullshit but it's possible they're trying to move as much forces to other areas of the front.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:23
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The Russians may just not be that concerned about an attack over the river. The logistics for such an attack would be very vulnerable unless Russian defence simply collapsed entirely which doesn't seem likely. There is, presumably, another defense line further back than this town.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:36
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Washington Post's The Daily 202 newsletter has an interesting section about the ICC indictment. Tl;dr is that it actually will have more effect than an empty press release.quote:The big idea
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Mar 23, 2023 18:48
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The Russians may just not be that concerned about an attack over the river. The logistics for such an attack would be very vulnerable unless Russian defence simply collapsed entirely which doesn't seem likely. There is, presumably, another defense line further back than this town. It's certainly a long way from this to Ukrainian forces blitzing through the area, and there is no information on how far Russians have pulled. But it's also not without risks to Russians as it becomes harder to control the perimeter against infiltrators. Ukraine doesn't have to cross with large forces to make it awkward for Russia. If they keep outposts nearby then smallish infantry teams with artillery forward observers and AT missiles could snuff those out and counter-attacking would only result in unproportionate casualties for Russia (which would aid the Ukrainian offensive). OTOH if they have withdrawn beyond Ukrainian artillery range then it would also mean that Russian artillery can't stop Ukraine from expanding their bridgehead. Either way Russia can't just leave the area and not expect Ukrainians to follow in some capacity.
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Mar 23, 2023 19:11
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Yeah looks like it was nothingbeer_war posted:https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1638964790998495239 Still wouldn't be surprised if they're moving forces to plug holes elsewhere.
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Mar 23, 2023 19:21
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Moon Slayer posted:Washington Post's The Daily 202 newsletter has an interesting section about the ICC indictment. Tl;dr is that it actually will have more effect than an empty press release. quote:President Biden’s administration this week looked to leverage the ICC warrant for Putin, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying Wednesday European countries should detain him and hand him over to the ICC if he visits their countries. This is actually telling because Putin could travel to USA and he would be fine because they don't recognize ICC. Oh and Hungary is also safe, at least according to Orban's spox who commented that Hungary wouldn't arrest Putin (Hungary has ratified the Rome Statue but he says it hasn't been codified in Hungarian legislation so it doesn't count - sounds like BS but it's unlikely that Putin would test it anyway).
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Mar 23, 2023 19:21
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Chalks posted:An interesting rumour: Deleted tweet, FYI.
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Mar 23, 2023 19:24
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Nenonen posted:This is actually telling because Putin could travel to USA and he would be fine because they don't recognize ICC. I doubt he'd be very safe in the US. Hell let me know and I'd do citizen's arrest if necessary.
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Mar 23, 2023 19:31
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mobby_6kl posted:I doubt he'd be very safe in the US. Hell let me know and I'd do citizen's arrest if necessary. Oh yeah, and which US law has he broken that you would cite?  Seriously though it's hella embarrasing that the US withdrew from the statute because US soldiers should be allowed to warcrime in Middle East. Hopefully this gives people there enough motivation to change that. I'm not going to hold my breath for it though...
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Mar 23, 2023 19:43
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