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I always get the impression that Russia and China *should* be pretty closely aligned for many reasons such as they are both awful dictatorships and see themselves as a counter to the liberal world order after WW2. But, for whatever reason they are always suspicious of each other so they can never really form a alliance on the level of NATO. Why? I don't know. Like many things geopolitics I'm sure it's very complicated. Maybe there's still some lingering tension from the Sino-Soviet split.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:19
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Yeah the idea that there are no accents or regional dialects in the United States is kind of ridiculous. No one said that though? The US definitely has dialects and regional accents, but they don't deviate from General American as much as Flemish dialects do from Standard Dutch.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:24
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Imo The United States appears to be revving up for a trade war with China. First there were tariffs under trump, now there are tech embargoes under Biden. America appears to be decoupling itself from the Chinese trade bloc but by bit, and china seems to be responding by expanding trade with Russia and India and the other BRICS. and both China and Russia are also increasingly in Africa (at old colonial owners' expanse - see W. Africa, Macron recent tour of Congo, etc) which is the area that is entering a demographic dividend (lots of middle aged people, not many oldies yet) of a couple billion people and natural resources. Turkey is also more active as well actually. I am curious whether the Treaties of Aigun and Peking get much chat in China or is it just wishful thinking on the part of the keenest of The Great Game participants, Tory UK.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:27
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Imo The United States appears to be revving up for a trade war with China. First there were tariffs under trump, now there are tech embargoes under Biden. America appears to be decoupling itself from the Chinese trade bloc but by bit, and china seems to be responding by expanding trade with Russia and India and the other BRICS. It’s extremely industry specific. Semiconductor and battery manufacturing basically. They aren’t loving around either, these factories are flying up, its almost unprecedented. I’ve never seen anything like it.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:27
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Discendo Vox posted:Note that Yahoo news is an aggregator, so you should always see who it's mediating. In this case, it's the Telegraph, which is usually seen as a Tory party mouthpiece. I was actually not aware of this, I was under the impression that Yahoo News was itself a reputable source and didn't know it was aggregating. Thanks for letting me know
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Mar 28, 2023 17:27
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Аканье, vowel reduction towards “a” (“o” most prominently). Ah right. I do know about that, I just never knew what it was called. Thanks!
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Mar 28, 2023 17:28
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Charliegrs posted:I always get the impression that Russia and China *should* be pretty closely aligned for many reasons such as they are both awful dictatorships and see themselves as a counter to the liberal world order after WW2. But, for whatever reason they are always suspicious of each other so they can never really form a alliance on the level of NATO. Why? I don't know. Like many things geopolitics I'm sure it's very complicated. Maybe there's still some lingering tension from the Sino-Soviet split. Their whole deal is rejecting a win-win vision of the world in favour of zero-sum great power competition. That primarily manifests itself as a feeling that in order to be strong they must inevitably push back against the US, but there is always going to have a limit to their cooperation because if you believe international relations is all zero sum then both sides are pitching for their own interests. There are no shared values underpinning the relationship, there is no reason why either of them would make a sacrifice that is not in their own direct interest for the other.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:29
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spankmeister posted:Ah right. I do know about that, I just never knew what it was called. Thanks! I have no idea if “ah-kanie” is the proper term for it in English, to be clear, but it's a thing in Russian, together with a few similar phenomena.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:30
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WarpedLichen posted:I think there's an element of prescription to a lot of the english articles on China Russia relations which is aiming to prevent the two sides from forming a stronger bond. Portraying China as opportunistic and Russia as a weak lackey. why would people be writing articles in english trying to do that? what good does it do in poisoning chinese-russian relations to convince me, an english speaker consuming american news, that neither speaks russian nor chinese nor has any influence whatsoever in either country, that perhaps china is taking advantage of russia?
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Mar 28, 2023 17:33
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Alchenar posted:Their whole deal is rejecting a win-win vision of the world in favour of zero-sum great power competition. That primarily manifests itself as a feeling that in order to be strong they must inevitably push back against the US, but there is always going to have a limit to their cooperation because if you believe international relations is all zero sum then both sides are pitching for their own interests. There are no shared values underpinning the relationship, there is no reason why either of them would make a sacrifice that is not in their own direct interest for the other. This tracks with Russia, but how much of this is really true of China? I think it's a fair description of their attitude towards their backyard but it's my impression that China was quite happy to continue a win-win trade relationship with the rest of the world and that it's the mostly the U.S. that has been fighting to return our relationship to a zero-sum competition.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:34
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HonorableTB posted:I was actually not aware of this, I was under the impression that Yahoo News was itself a reputable source and didn't know it was aggregating. Thanks for letting me know Yahoo News' in house investigations (i.e. their investigative reporting dept) is well regarded and entirely reputable, which I assume is what you're thinking of.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:36
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Charliegrs posted:I always get the impression that Russia and China *should* be pretty closely aligned for many reasons such as they are both awful dictatorships and see themselves as a counter to the liberal world order after WW2. But, for whatever reason they are always suspicious of each other so they can never really form a alliance on the level of NATO. Why? I don't know. You do understand that Chinese nationalists believe that half of Russian far east is properly their territory that Russia managed to steal from the during a period of national humiliation, and that return to normalcy requires that territory is returned to China, right? All the bullshit that Putin has for former Russian imperial territories is exactly the same in China, except they want Outer Manchuria back from Russia.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:37
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evilweasel posted:why would people be writing articles in english trying to do that? what good does it do in poisoning chinese-russian relations to convince me, an english speaker consuming american news, that neither speaks russian nor chinese nor has any influence whatsoever in either country, that perhaps china is taking advantage of russia? To put the narrative out there? It doesn't really have to convince anybody in Russia or China and the people making decisions on foreign policy over there are probably more aware of the western narrative than the general public over there.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:42
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Tuna-Fish posted:You do understand that Chinese nationalists believe that half of Russian far east is properly their territory that Russia managed to steal from the during a period of national humiliation, and that return to normalcy requires that territory is returned to China, right? How serious is that movement though? I'm aware of their historic beef over it and Mongolia but if it's about as serious as reclaiming Koeningsberg then it's probably a non-factor in modern relations.
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Mar 28, 2023 17:57
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WarpedLichen posted:To put the narrative out there? It doesn't really have to convince anybody in Russia or China and the people making decisions on foreign policy over there are probably more aware of the western narrative than the general public over there. How do you think that element of prescription weighs against the reality of the situation? Like 5/95?
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Mar 28, 2023 18:09
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evilweasel posted:why would people be writing articles in english trying to do that? what good does it do in poisoning chinese-russian relations to convince me, an english speaker consuming american news, that neither speaks russian nor chinese nor has any influence whatsoever in either country, that perhaps china is taking advantage of russia? Wishful thinking might be a more accurate description. One thing this conflict has made me realize is that Americans seem to fundamentally not understand what makes Russia tick (people keep mentioning things like the "popular will" in Russia as if it matters), while Russian leadership seems to fundamentally not understand how democracies work (Putin seems incapable of comprehending that a popular movement might actually be the result of a popular consensus and not driven by hostile actors, conspiracies, etc.). Westerners don't really comprehend how autocracy works and autocrats don't really comprehend how democracies work and that fundamental gap in comprehension has driven a lot of the events of this war.
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Mar 28, 2023 18:10
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Wishful thinking might be a more accurate description. This is a pretty good call. Everybody has been guilty of getting high on their own rhetoric supply. Some more than others. And I hope I don't offend anyone by saying this, but it does seem that all of Russia is convinced that their avenue to victory involves being able to suffer more and be more brutal than the other side. It seems like a motif throughout their culture and not just some military doctrine. Even if they weren't getting fed endless propaganda, I think the way Russia's military is waging this war is just not that shocking to its own people, so you're just not going to get the outrage many westerners expect.
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Mar 28, 2023 18:38
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the holy poopacy posted:This tracks with Russia, but how much of this is really true of China? I think it's a fair description of their attitude towards their backyard but it's my impression that China was quite happy to continue a win-win trade relationship with the rest of the world and that it's the mostly the U.S. that has been fighting to return our relationship to a zero-sum competition. China has an incredibly active industrial policy. Large parts of the economy are still state owned, foreign internet companies like Google, Facebook etc. are straight up banned from operating in China, foreign car firms were until recently required to have joint ventures to set up factories in China (it was notable that this requirement was specifically waived for Tesla), and the state doles out plenty of subsidies to priority industries. I don't approve of everything the US has done recently regarding China but it's hardly a one way street.
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Mar 28, 2023 18:45
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Wishful thinking might be a more accurate description. And this tends to breed the most savage types of conflicts. Hell, it is what set the stage for the Pacific conflict in WW2.
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Mar 28, 2023 18:55
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mobby_6kl posted:How serious is that movement though? I'm aware of their historic beef over it and Mongolia but if it's about as serious as reclaiming Koeningsberg then it's probably a non-factor in modern relations. This feels a lot like two years ago when some people were saying "Putin wants to reclaim all USSR territories" and the rest of us went "maybe in his fantasies but that's a crazy person thing to try irl"
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Mar 28, 2023 19:33
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mobby_6kl posted:How serious is that movement though? I'm aware of their historic beef over it and Mongolia but if it's about as serious as reclaiming Koeningsberg then it's probably a non-factor in modern relations. It's serious enough that up until the recent summit Russia has been resisting Chinese investment into the East.
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Mar 28, 2023 19:33
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can anybody answer this question: with the ICC arrest warrant on putin, could he also technically get arrested in international waters? obviously he's probably laughing at the concept of ever setting foot in europe or america ever again, but if he can't even ride his yacht anywhere, surely that must piss him off a little, right?
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Mar 28, 2023 20:24
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Vaginaface posted:This feels a lot like two years ago when some people were saying "Putin wants to reclaim all USSR territories" and the rest of us went "maybe in his fantasies but that's a crazy person thing to try irl" Alchenar posted:It's serious enough that up until the recent summit Russia has been resisting Chinese investment into the East. go play outside Skyler posted:can anybody answer this question: with the ICC arrest warrant on putin, could he also technically get arrested in international waters?
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Mar 28, 2023 20:33
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go play outside Skyler posted:can anybody answer this question: with the ICC arrest warrant on putin, could he also technically get arrested in international waters? If I recall correctly or the laws of the nation which flag the ship flies apply. Putin setting foot on a ship that’s flying a flag of an unfriendly state seems unlikely. Edit: which means boarding a ship is likely to be treated the same way as invading an embassy or the country itself. Not sure if it’s ok if you call it a “special military operation” Edit2: the UN has a list of articles with regards to this. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part7.htm quote:
LochNessMonster fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Mar 28, 2023 |
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Mar 28, 2023 20:36
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go play outside Skyler posted:can anybody answer this question: with the ICC arrest warrant on putin, could he also technically get arrested in international waters? Definitely not a lawyer, especially not an international waters lawyer, but one thing I'll say is that the ICC thing applies only to the green countries on this map, and they are not obliged to act on the warrant either.  from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute_of_the_International_Criminal_Court cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Mar 28, 2023 |
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Mar 28, 2023 20:38
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I can't imagine Putin being on a boat that wasn't a Russian Navy warship and so I looked up what the status is for warships sailing in international waters. https://www.noaa.gov/jurisdiction-over-vessels NOAA Jurisdiction Over Vessels posted:Although foreign government ships operated for non-commercial purposes are required to comply with a State’s laws while within its ports and internal waters, they are immune from inspection, arrest, or seizure by authorities of nations other than the flag state. See The “Ara Libertad” Case (Argentina v. Ghana), ITLOS, Order of 12 Dec. 2012, Case No. 20 offsite link (holding that “in accordance with general international law, a warship enjoys immunity, including in internal waters” (¶ 95).) This is reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC) Articles 32, 96, and 236 which provide immunity for government ships exclusively on non-commercial service. I presume even a non-warship would count as a "government ship" if Putin was onboard.
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Mar 28, 2023 20:42
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You are in the in the flag country on a ship of whatever flag.
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Mar 28, 2023 20:45
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:One thing this conflict has made me realize is that Americans seem to fundamentally not understand what makes Russia tick (people keep mentioning things like the "popular will" in Russia as if it matters) So, as one of those kinda ignorant Americans, I want to ask you how does Russia work? Not meaning to throw you into the spotlight here, but I guess my “Russia Watching” began on the day of the invasion and has been pretty involved, but probably still missing a lot? The only thing I’ve really understood (or misunderstood) is that Putin gets his information from people who are motivated (by career and health) to provide that news to him in a very slanted light. And then everyone underneath Putin is interested in keeping the status quo for sake of their own necks and interests because Putin’s disposal means this careful division of power, stability, and favors vanishes the moment his heart stops. And then as far as the military goes, that whole culture of lying and offloading responsibility that Perun talks about results in boneheaded battlefield decisions. Oh and the citizens just kinda exist and don’t really do anything because there’s this (now straining) social contract for them to stay out of politics in exchange for the state leaving them alone. And all this stuff seems completely irrational to outsiders but it makes perfect sense when you understand the rules the actors are constrained to? Is that how Russia Works in a nutshell or is there a lot more to it im missing? I always find these mutual misunderstandings throughout history really interesting, and I’d like to understand Russia as this is happening, but all I really know about is is from this thread and a half dozen recommended YouTubers/YouTube lectures mentioned here.
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Mar 28, 2023 20:46
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Bar Ran Dun posted:You are in the in the flag country on a ship of whatever flag. Hey, you ok buddy?
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Mar 28, 2023 20:55
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Charliegrs posted:I always get the impression that Russia and China *should* be pretty closely aligned for many reasons such as they are both awful dictatorships and see themselves as a counter to the liberal world order after WW2. But, for whatever reason they are always suspicious of each other so they can never really form a alliance on the level of NATO. Why? I don't know. Like many things geopolitics I'm sure it's very complicated. Maybe there's still some lingering tension from the Sino-Soviet split. China is running a tightrope right now where they really want to avoid direct confrontation with the West. That's why the United States can put troops into territory the PRC considers their own and the PRC basically does nothing. Remaining neutral in the conflict allows them to act as a mediator rather than an enemy of the United States.
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Mar 28, 2023 20:56
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buglord posted:
That, plus lots of embezzlement, bribes, and kickbacks flying around. So chances are a good chunk of each procurement budget will end up as someone's yacht, with another chunk going to their boss to look the other way. A lot of the topmost elites are also Putin's wrestling buddies --- for example one of the few things that actually resulted in wodespread protests was the kid of one of such Putin's buddies getting to run the toll collection system for truckers (and apparently keep a bunch of it, like in a time period before modern administrative states existed).
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Mar 28, 2023 20:57
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Yeah the idea that there are no accents or regional dialects in the United States is kind of ridiculous. The context is if a native speaker can generally differentiate real or fake reporting based on the accent of the speaker, like some guy pretending to be the American Legion is speaking with Crocodile Dundee’s accent it would be pretty obviously fake. Apparently in the Russophone world it can often be hard to tell with 100% confidence based on the speaker’s accent, like in American English if someone was fighting with the Boston Legion who spoke with a generic George Clooney accent, it would not be meaningful that he is not actually from Bahston, since a lot of people from Bahston speak with a more "generic" accent. There is a regional Bahston accent but a lot of people from there don’t actually speak like that. Conversely I’ve never heard a Brit or Australian who I thought was American, so obviously there are dialects to some point - they’re just much broader than in say, Italian or Dutch or German. I don’t know what you are referring to with the second part of your post… but yeah, no one said otherwise.
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Mar 28, 2023 21:03
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Are we now discussing a hypothetical kidnapping of the head of a nuclear state? The guy with the nuclear football?
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Mar 28, 2023 21:05
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Nenonen posted:Are we now discussing a hypothetical kidnapping of the head of a nuclear state? The guy with the nuclear football? In Russia are they not allowed to touch the nuclear football with their hands?
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Mar 28, 2023 21:08
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buglord posted:So, as one of those kinda ignorant Americans, I want to ask you how does Russia work? Not meaning to throw you into the spotlight here, I mean, all I know is that I've been getting things wrong, I'm no more an expert than any other dumbass American, and anything we "know" is being filtered through rumor and propaganda. What tripped my warning flags were a few separate incidents i've seen mentioned here now and again but that I couldn't find the links or cites for if I tried. 1st) an incident at some point where Biden (or maybe, hell, Bush?) and Putin were talking and as reported Putin seemed to genuinely think Biden could just tell European nations to do things and they'd happen, like he was a mafia don giving a capo a task. 2) Putin's apparently sincere belief that the 2014 Euromaidan revolution was just western operatives installing a puppet government, which appears to have been the inspiration for his attempt to respond in February by just installing his own puppets, tit for tat what's the problem 3) the biographical stories about Putin's rise from, functionally, the organized crime wing of the St. Petersburg government. 4) The perennial articles about "popularity" of various policies in Russia that never seem to acknowledge Putin's total control of the media or absolute destruction of any even theoretical challenges to his power base. Putin seems to think all democracies are as fake as his own, and we keep appearing to think "popular will" can vote out a mafia don. I suppose in theory he has to fear a popular uprising the way that Tsars might fear a riot in Moscow but short of that ?
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Mar 28, 2023 21:09
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If you want an accessible way to learn about how Putin's Russia works from an English source, you can't go much wrong from start from Episode 1 here: https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/
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Mar 28, 2023 21:13
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mutata posted:Hey, you ok buddy? That was a perfectly fine post. Nenonen posted:Are we now discussing a hypothetical kidnapping of the head of a nuclear state? The guy with the nuclear football? mutata posted:In Russia are they not allowed to touch the nuclear football with their hands? Unlike these. *points at sign*
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Mar 28, 2023 21:13
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Part of the reason that a lot of Eastern European states are so opposed to Russia in this is they've been working to cross from the Second World to the First World. Putin's Russia kept tunneling deeper and deeper into the worst bits of the Soviet Union to a degree that someone who hadn't lived in it won't be able to appreciate. It's an environment that I would describe as deeply traumatizing, based on what a lot of Post-Soviet emigres I know have been through, just in terms of always having to keep your cards close to your chest and always protect yourself from someone trying to exploit you. And yes, that does happen here in the West, but not all the time or nearly all the time.
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Mar 28, 2023 21:29
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thanks for all the replies. even if nobody would really have the balls to arrest putin, i don't think he would risk going anywhere he technically could get arrested. it's a bit of a stalemate. i'm hoping it grinds his gears. another thing i heard on the radio today is that it marks the final nail in the coffin for any hope he might have of peacefully retiring his government. as soon as he loses his presidential immunity it will be game over for him, even within russia.
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Mar 28, 2023 21:39
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I don't think it makes much a difference to Putin because a nation attempting to arrest him even in internationals waters is tantamount to war, it just won't happen.
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Mar 28, 2023 21:43
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