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fatherboxx)
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Is 7.62x39 really still used? 54R I can see in old MGs but the OG AK-47 hasn't been in use for a looking time afaik
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Apr 5, 2023 11:51
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aphid_licker posted:Is 7.62x39 really still used? 54R I can see in old MGs but the OG AK-47 hasn't been in use for a looking time afaik It's definitely getting used. Just because the Wikipedia article says an armed force is using a standardized caliber doesn't mean it's actually happening, especially in Eastern Europe. There's so many AKs in reserve that it's hard not to see someone using them on a regular basis. Maybe it's militias or other irregulars, but it could also be various ad hoc units in the UAF.
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Apr 5, 2023 12:20
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aphid_licker posted:Is 7.62x39 really still used? 54R I can see in old MGs but the OG AK-47 hasn't been in use for a looking time afaik There were a lot in inventory. The Soviets only adopted the 5.45 in '74, and the process of switching everything over was still ongoing when the union fell apart. All the frontline units were supposed to use 5.45, but a lot of the second-line etc units were to be equipped with older guns. The AKMs that were moved to these units were largely replacing ww2-surplus smgs.
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Apr 5, 2023 12:23
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According to Süddeutsche, the Ukrainian government asks people to leave occupied territory. The article speculates it's because the Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming, and wants civilians out of the way.
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Apr 5, 2023 12:53
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Ynglaur posted:The US is changing to 6.8mm for infantry, scouts, combat engineers, and special forces, too. I have a bunch of thoughts on that new platform in the context of what we're learning in the War in Ukraine. I just need to find time to write it (and, honestly, I'm unsure if regulars itt would even be interested.) Post it!!!  Want to know if the 6.8 is just another niche turkey or something better. edit: post in haste, spell at leisure. 
Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Apr 5, 2023 |
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Apr 5, 2023 12:57
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Okay so Zelensky is in Warsaw, has spoken to Duda in private and there is a press conference where both talk about the war. First he was given the White Eagle Order, the highest Polish award. Mostly symbolic as we've had some ridiculous nominees to that, but still a nice gesture. So far Duda has said that while we have a well modernised and NATO compatible MiGs, we won't be giving them away just now, as we'll need them for possible Air Policing by NATO. But once they will be phased out from our stock, they might go to Ukraine. However we've given four old ones and four more old ones are on the way. Six more are being prepared for sending sometime down the line. There's also a lot of talk of economical support and future collaboration to rebuild Ukraine. And some sort of a new treaty to support that. I mean this is mostly Fluff with a capital F since this is Zelensky's first fully official visit somewhere, so there will be a lot of pomp and decorum will be kept, but some details are interesting. For example he said when asked about Bakhamut that the situation is the hardest there, however it is important that Russia does not control the city. Despite ammo shortages.
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Apr 5, 2023 13:23
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Kikas posted:Okay so Zelensky is in Warsaw, has spoken to Duda in private and there is a press conference where both talk about the war. First he was given the White Eagle Order, the highest Polish award. Mostly symbolic as we've had some ridiculous nominees to that, but still a nice gesture. Has there been any mention of Poland’s agriculture minister quitting on the same day as Zelensky's visit over the minister's inability to cut the amount of Ukrainian agricultural products flooding into the country? I didn't know that this was an issue until reading this article today but apparently Polish farmers are increasingly outraged over falling produce prices caused by soaring Ukrainian imports: https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-to-visit-polish-president-andrzej-duda-in-warsaw-poland-ukraine/ This might be a minor issue compared to everything else going on but I think it's still a fascinating example of the various unexpected ripple effects of the war, especially since four other countries that neighbor Ukriane have similar concerns according to the article.
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Apr 5, 2023 14:25
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Kikas posted:this is Zelensky's first fully official visit somewhere What do you mean by this?
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Apr 5, 2023 14:54
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Getting back to assassin-chat, Christo Grozev has the fun detail that public cctv cameras were disabled around Prigozhin's restaurant where a prominent milblog was assassinated. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1643551941715173376 Which makes it really sound like it was a friendly fire deal.
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Apr 5, 2023 15:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What do you mean by this? Looks like it might be his first state visit since the war started. He has made a state visit to Poland and also went there last year for a work visit.
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Apr 5, 2023 15:34
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Didn't he also already make a visit to the US in december or is there something pedantic about it that made that and others also not state visits?
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Apr 5, 2023 16:16
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He gave a (great) speech to Congress in DC a while back.
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Apr 5, 2023 17:21
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boofhead posted:Didn't he also already make a visit to the US in december or is there something pedantic about it that made that and others also not state visits? State visits are pedantic, pompous and highly ceremonial. It might be characterized as the two heads of states (the host and the visitor) acting as the high priests of their national deities, declaring that the gods are content. On a normal working visit they can just say so without 21 gun salutes and other magical ceremonies.
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Apr 5, 2023 18:13
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See also how Trump was ever so eager to get invited to a full state visit to London because him riding a horse carriage to Buckingham to inspect the guards with the Queen herself would have been such great television.
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Apr 5, 2023 18:16
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Yeah there's a big difference between a visit and a state visit, but everyone including the media often use the terms interchangeably.
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Apr 5, 2023 18:29
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Shocking I know, but there has been a fire at one of Russia's ministry of defense's buildings. https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/17459697 https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1643661569505517568
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Apr 5, 2023 18:49
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Moon Slayer posted:Yeah there's a big difference between a visit and a state visit, but everyone including the media often use the terms interchangeably. What is the difference besides the pomp and circumstance? I'm really not sure what the significance of the state part is? Is it just an invitation? In new it looks like the Czechs are also jumping in with more funding: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/2/7396122/ I think the EU has also announced more aid in the press conference yesterday. Are there publications about what's in each of these packages like for the US? https://mil.in.ua/en/news/poland-transferred-8-mig-29-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/ Also one thing that sticks out to me about the Polish mig transfers is: Duda posted:“After the modernization, they have equipment that was transferred from the US. There is a NATO connection. And formalities must be observed in connection with this,” Wasn't the Polish fleet of mig-29s like 30ish planes? How are they not all standardized the same? I thought the US rejection in 2022 was because of the existence of NATO kit on them, but apparently Poland is running some weird frankenfleet? Is every EU military just a weird hodgepodge? WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Apr 5, 2023 |
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Apr 5, 2023 19:04
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WarpedLichen posted:What is the difference besides the pomp and circumstance? That's literally it. Wikipedia posted:A state visit is a formal visit by a head of state to a foreign country, at the invitation of the head of state of that foreign country, with the latter also acting as the official host for the duration of the state visit. Speaking for the host, it is generally called a state reception. State visits are considered to be the highest expression of friendly bilateral relations between two sovereign states, and are in general characterised by an emphasis on official public ceremonies. quote:State visits typically involve some or all the following components (each host country has its own traditions): Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Apr 5, 2023 |
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Apr 5, 2023 19:18
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After watching the latest Perun video about the war in Ukraine, I do agree with him that the best plane to send would be the Gripen, it's *made* for fighting Russians! Also it's a very good plane with low cost in flight hours and ease of maintenance which would be very good for a war like this, not to mention being able to use Meteor missiles which are amazing and would be very welcome considering what they have right now.
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Apr 5, 2023 19:43
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WarpedLichen posted:I think the EU has also announced more aid in the press conference yesterday. Nope, at least that not that I've seen.
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Apr 5, 2023 19:59
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I thought Blinken said this:quote:European partners have spent about $13 billion in European – in military assistance thus far, on top of tens of billions more in economic and humanitarian assistance, extraordinary support for refugees who have come from Ukraine. We very much appreciate the announcement from the EU that it will be providing an additional 2 billion in euros worth of ammunition through its European Peace Facility. But I wasn't sure what it referred to, might be something old.
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Apr 5, 2023 20:11
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WarpedLichen posted:I thought Blinken said this: That appears to be a conflation of this: quote:This decision implements the political agreement reached on 12 December 2022, when the Council decided to increase the overall EPF financial ceiling by €2 billion (in 2018 prices) in 2023, and allow for the possibility of a further increase at a later stage (up to €5.5 billion in 2018 prices until 2027). and the recent announcement of 1 million rounds of ammunition: quote:Military and defence needs Which definitely isn't 2 billion euros worth of ammunition and isn't really 2 billion euros worth of extra aid.
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Apr 5, 2023 20:23
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WarpedLichen posted:
The Polish Air Force recieved 14 MiG-29s from Germany. These had been used by the Luftwaffe after reunification and were updated to certain Nato standards. Even then, the nature of the MiGs' construction meant it had problems achieving true interoperability within the NATO air defense structure, problems too expensive to fix. Fine for the Poles, as they already had 29s and were transitioning to Western aircraft for anything but local air defense. The present Polish MiG fleet is split between the 29A model and the 29UB combat capable trainer. Just going by the number of ex-German craft they got and the total number in service, some of the A models must be of a different standard. Most EU countries standardized their airforces along US or domestic lines, but this gets less true the further east you go. Romania is a fairly good example of this. They have their own aircraft industry and spent a lot of time and money upgrading MiG-21s with the help of Elbit out of Israel, which are only now on their way out. Besides the LanceR, they also kept upgraded license built helicopters, a few Antonov transport planes, locally built IAR training jets, and old Soviet Yakolev piston trainers. As all of that poo poo gets older and more difficult to keep flying, they are shifting to US equipment. C-130s and C-27s for transport, surplus F-16s as multirole fighters to eventually be complemented by the F-35.
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Apr 5, 2023 20:24
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WarpedLichen posted:I thought Blinken said this: kemikalkadet posted:Which definitely isn't 2 billion euros worth of ammunition and isn't really 2 billion euros worth of extra aid. quote:EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said this week that he secured approval for earmarking 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) to encourage member nations to provide artillery shells from their existing stocks and any pending orders. Another 1 billion euros would go toward accelerating new orders and encouraging countries to work together on making purchases through the European Defense Agency or in groups of at least three nations.
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Apr 5, 2023 20:43
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I see. This is a bit older than yesterday. Oh interesting, the original quote referenced the European Peace Facility so I went through their press releases and there wasn't any reference to that, just those two articles I quoted which made it look like Blinken was misquoting figures. There's so many layers of orgs, groups and councils in the EU that it's hard to keep up: European Peace Facility, European Defence Agency, several flavours of European council etc.
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Apr 5, 2023 22:06
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Nenonen posted:Shocking I know, but there has been a fire at one of Russia's ministry of defense's buildings. I just showed this to my Russian wife and she said "It just means they couldn't select a new pope.".
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Apr 5, 2023 22:44
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kemikalkadet posted:Oh interesting, the original quote referenced the European Peace Facility so I went through their press releases and there wasn't any reference to that, just those two articles I quoted which made it look like Blinken was misquoting figures. There's so many layers of orgs, groups and councils in the EU that it's hard to keep up: European Peace Facility, European Defence Agency, several flavours of European council etc. The funding for the artillery plan is kind-of complicated. There are several problems that are being solved at once: A) Ukraine needs artillery ammo immediately because the steady supply is low B) Steady supply of ammo needs to increase to avoid crisis situations C) Steady ammo supply can come out of factories, if there were free factories D) Since there aren't any free factories, with EU-wide order on a 1-year wait, steady ammo supply can only come out of member state armouries E) Member states don't want to send much more ammo than so far because reserves/money/can't be arsed So, what is now going to happen is that the EU executive is now taking 1 billion out of the European Peace Facility (EPF), a shared emergency piggy under the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). They're using this 1 billion to pay off member states with money/reserves objections to send shells to Ukraine immediately. Immediately was meant to mean March, but, as of today, the status is “late May, ideally”. The reason the status is “late May, ideally”, is where the other 1 billion from EPF comes in. My understanding of the negotiations around the artillery plan was that the member states ended up learning that even for the super-EU-order of artillery shells, there's going to be a wait time of around a year. Unless the EU agrees to payroll new factories (some German MIC guy had asked EUR 800mn for that, for reference). Which is to say that if the initial plan was “send a little bit from own stocks and plug factories into Ukraine”, then now the plan is “send a lot and then refill from factories”. Since member states have decided that building these new factories would yield excessive profits to the MIC, the focus is now on just securing proper delivery commitment as a group. When that is secured, countries like France (reportedly one of the louder complaining about money countries) are expected to offload a larger chunk of their active reserve stock of shells to Ukraine. However, this does gloss over the actual deal itself, a bit. The second billion is not just buying a billion worth of shells for EU member states. What it is doing instead is reimbursing artillery shell orders that are made to replace shells supplied to Ukraine, or that are just placed in Ukraine's name directly. There are also some important technical details. This is a reimbursement procurement action, with the reimbursement rate maximum indicated at 60% (the exact number will be decided later by the EPF Committee). Which means that the total financing on the table is up to 2.5 billion euros for drawing on the national armouries, and up to another 2.5 billion euros for joint procurement. “Artillery shells” for the purposes of this order does also mean missiles. And there are Council deadlines of September 30 for making the joint procurement, and of May 31 for delivering into Ukraine existing if they want to be paid for it as per the first billion. Furthermore, as this targets 1 million of shells delivered rather explicitly, if there's 60% reimbursement and 5 billion on the table, and they do it in 1 billion, then the remaining 4 billion can be spent as per the following sentence: “Any unused funds may allow for the reimbursement of all lethal equipment, in accordance with the priorities set in Ukraine’s list of requirements.” In other words, this a fairly EU, as an adjective, manoeuvre with some off-budget money. Especially if we consider that Norway counts as the EU for this spending exercise. As for the acronyms and who is who, it's straightforward if you just memorize 10 things that don't make sense in any naturally occurring way of looking at them. I guess we can start here:  This is the separation of powers in the EU. “European Council” (formal name, informally EUCO) means head of every state (all presidents). “Council of Ministers” (informal name, formally Council of the European Union, and more commonly informally – “Council”) means the X minister from every state (e.g., all foreign affairs ministers). “Council of Europe” (CoE) which is not there on the chart because it doesn't have anything to do with the EU, and the job you know it for most likely is as the host of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). The European Peace Facility (EPF) is an off-budget mechanism of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) which alongside with the Common Defence and Security Policy (CDSP) is the job of the European External Action Service (EEAS). Kind of, since the European Defence Agency (EDA) is the internal controller of the CDSP. EEAS and EDA together form the secretariat of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), which is an opt-in mechanism of enhanced cooperation between the national armed forces of 25 of 27 members states. Maybe to clarify that, CFSP is the big thing, with CDSP being one pillar of it. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission (HR/VP) is the coordinator of CFSP, meaning that this person chairs EEAS and EDA while strictly speaking not being bureaucratically prescribed to hold either executive role. In part since, as foreign policy decisions in EU require unanimity, HR/VP is a member of the European Commission (EC, informally just “Commission”) who does also happen to chair the Foreign Affairs Council (FAC), which is the official term for a Council session where foreign affairs ministers meet. A somewhat (well, not really just somewhat) simplified view would be to treat the HR/VP as the sole minister EU has “as a country”, the minister of defence and foreign affairs more specifically. This is all kind of peacetime EU stuff, and then from last year you also have Defence Joint Procurement Task Force, which is a collaboration between EC, EEAS, and EDA, that coordinates military aid to Ukraine and makes sure that it doesn't cause a bidding war between the member states. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 5, 2023 23:26
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That is really helpful for understanding how this works. I mean, I still wouldn't say I actually understand what half these groups are. In looking into this more, I see that Denmark has decided to join the EDA and PESCO: https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-23/news/denmark-votes-to-join-european-defence-agency/
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Apr 5, 2023 23:49
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1643536348459016192 I really don't get the point of making claims like this. Isn't Crimea heavily defended, is it an actual realistic time frame?
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Apr 6, 2023 00:08
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They've been saying this stuff since like summer, every month.EasilyConfused posted:I mean, I still wouldn't say I actually understand what half these groups are. I mean, that's what I tried leaning into with “things that don't make sense in any naturally occurring way”. A lot of EU bureaucracy is vaguely overlapping ways of doing the same thing, built so that the sum of these overlaps does satisfy multiple some sum of probably mildly contradictory historical grandstanding. Which ends up being big enough that you can get a college degree in being an EU Org Chart Understander, what is there to say about stuff like EU English.
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Apr 6, 2023 00:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They've been saying this stuff since like summer, every month. I get that it's just talk, but would his time frame actually be realistic or not?
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Apr 6, 2023 00:26
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Willo567 posted:I get that it's just talk, but would his time frame actually be realistic or not? Not based on public information.
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Apr 6, 2023 00:27
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I mean, that's what I tried leaning into with “things that don't make sense in any naturally occurring way”. A lot of EU bureaucracy is vaguely overlapping ways of doing the same thing, built so that the sum of these overlaps does satisfy multiple some sum of probably mildly contradictory historical grandstanding. Which ends up being big enough that you can get a college degree in being an EU Org Chart Understander, what is there to say about stuff like EU English. Yeah, I didn't mean that as a criticism of your explanation or anything. It also makes sense from a US perspective, if I think about how complex our federal bureaucracy can be and then realize that in the EU context there would be an entire additional layer on top of that.
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Apr 6, 2023 00:31
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Willo567 posted:I get that it's just talk, but would his time frame actually be realistic or not? The point is to feed Russia spooky disinfo (might be working, considering construction of new defence lines in Crimea, pulling away resources from other places), but also, and maybe more importantly, to keep people's hopes up. Admitting that the war may or may not go on for years would absolutely destroy public morale.
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Apr 6, 2023 00:57
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EasilyConfused posted:Yeah, I didn't mean that as a criticism of your explanation or anything. No worries, all I'm saying is that the inscrutability is a feature.
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Apr 6, 2023 01:23
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Willo567 posted:I really don't get the point of making claims like this. Isn't Crimea heavily defended, is it an actual realistic time frame? Both sides spew tons of propaganda to encourage their troops and spook the enemy. It is not generally realistic, nor should you be taking it seriously. saratoga fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 02:05
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1643536348459016192 Invading Crimea is a horrible bottleneck that has historically annihilated entire armies, so probably not. Better to besiege it for a while before you even try. That said, Ukraine would probably like Russia to keep expending resources there under the assumption that an an invasion could happen at some point, rather than sending them somewhere more useful, so making statements like this occasionally actually makes sense.
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Apr 6, 2023 02:23
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Incidentally, FT's published an interview with the deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, where he suggests that retaking Crimea through military means is not the only option on the table. https://www.ft.com/content/d68b4007-4ddf-4320-b29a-f2eee2662d6e quote:“If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” Sybiha said, referring to Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive.
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Apr 6, 2023 02:27
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Svaha posted:Invading Crimea is a horrible bottleneck that has historically annihilated entire armies, so probably not. Better to besiege it for a while before you even try. Historically Crimea fell to both the German and Soviet armies without much fanfare. A small peninsula is a lovely place to defend if the other guy controls access to the mainland.
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Apr 6, 2023 02:27
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Warbadger posted:Historically Crimea fell to both the German and Soviet armies without much fanfare. A small peninsula is a lovely place to defend if the other guy controls access to the mainland. 8 months and 30,000 casualties (for the German offensive) 1 month and 85,000 casualties to take it back for the Russians. Not trivial for what amounts to a relatively small area.
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Apr 6, 2023 02:38
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