namesake posted:

What's popular with the public doesn't matter at all though.

Communist Thoughts posted:

SNP don't have a path to independence and it's unclear if they have had one since the 1st ref.

The only path is to get an English PM to agree to another referendum

Zeroisanumber posted:

Why bother arresting someone of that stature without enough evidence to charge them?

Zeroisanumber posted:

Why bother arresting someone of that stature without enough evidence to charge them?

Ardennes posted:

The issue if public opinion in Scotland swings hard enough it because a public order issue. They need to put the breaks on.

Ardennes posted:

The issue if public opinion in Scotland swings hard enough it because a public order issue. They need to put the breaks on.

Communist Thoughts posted:

Communist Thoughts posted:

Theyr gonna have to start blowing up MPs like the IRA if they want to move that kind of dial towards independence. Nobody in Westminster cares otherwise and theyr the only ones with power to do it.

the current route will probably just lead to a reversal of devolution which is basically what we're seeing some of atm

E there seems to be this idea that eventually support will hit some kind of democracy threshold and trigger the referendum automatically

Jose posted:

its been long enough since I was in school I can't remember if stuff was as clear as this though I don't think i even learned about the indonesian coup

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1640059426978648064?s=20

Cerebral Bore posted:

i mean, if scotland ever got to the point where they just declare independence then what are the english to do? send in their barely existent army that's sent off like half of its equipment to get blown up in ukraine?

Cerebral Bore posted:

i mean, if scotland ever got to the point where they just declare independence then what are the english to do? send in their barely existent army that's sent off like half of its equipment to get blown up in ukraine?

Cerebral Bore posted:

i mean, if scotland ever got to the point where they just declare independence then what are the english to do? send in their barely existent army that's sent off like half of its equipment to get blown up in ukraine?

Zeroisanumber posted:

Never been but my sense is that Scottish independence is like Quebec independence in that it's totally a political question and no one has been willing to shoot anyone over it since the 70's.

forkboy84 posted:

There were a few headbangers 20-30 years ago who sent anthrax contaminated soil from a Scottish island to Tory HQ, & there was the Scottish Liberation Army who sent Cherie Blair a bottle of caustic soda labelled as face cream or something like that, but the last I heard was from '09 when one of their number sent threats with shotgun shells to a bunch of politicians, including Alex Salmond

Pistol_Pete posted:

Yeah, there's plenty of Scots who quite like the idea of being independent, but nobody's interested in becoming a glorious martyr for the Cause. I think even if Westminster took back the devolution powers and closed Holyrood, there'd be nothing past some noisy demos and angry Twitter posts.

Ardennes posted:

It isn't the spirit of democracy, but failing trust in institutions, also Scotland is a much larger prize than Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland always had a catholic middle class that was fairly soft on rejoining the south, while Scotland in 2023 is a bit more unpredictable.

For the US, having potentially a neutral nation on the GIUK is completely unacceptable. Scotland can be allowed to be independent, period.

Gato posted:

An independent Scotland would be pretty screwed economically if it couldn't rejoin the EU, and it's generally assumed that Spain would veto them joining unless they became independent via a government-sanctioned referendum due to the whole Catalonia situation

captainbananas posted:

The US security state apparatchik doesn't give a gently caress beyond HMNB Clyde.

The median US voter either doesn't give a gently caress at all or is 100%

Ardennes posted:

Lossiemouth too

I mean do you think the US ever has cares about the people their decisions affect?

forkboy84 posted:

Arrest the leaders and put them in jail like happened with Catalunya and their Universal Declaration of Independence. Like, what are the Nats going to do to stop them? Reckon Police Scotland don't have more than their share of yoons in their ranks?

Nobody outside of farmers have guns in Scotland, so I don't really see any well-armed militia out there to defend them, it's not like there's a Scottish version of the IRA, not since the 70s and even that was probably 50 people

Gato posted:

An independent Scotland would be pretty screwed economically if it couldn't rejoin the EU, and it's generally assumed that Spain would veto them joining unless they became independent via a government-sanctioned referendum due to the whole Catalonia situation

e: also while the army may be useless at the whole war thing it's still pretty good at making occupied civilians' lives miserable plus the occasional massacre, see Ireland, Northern

Cerebral Bore posted:

i mean, if scotland ever got to the point where they just declare independence then what are the english to do? send in their barely existent army that's sent off like half of its equipment to get blown up in ukraine?

das hipster posted:

Telluric Whistler posted:

I seem to recall London has corporate control over and would be supported in claiming all the North Sea oil. That's probably Scotland's biggest bargaining chip to be part of a customs union or to maintain independence, without it they're just losing any representation in Westminster and having to deal with it.

Cerebral Bore posted:

i mean, if scotland ever got to the point where they just declare independence then what are the english to do? send in their barely existent army that's sent off like half of its equipment to get blown up in ukraine?