quote:

It’s time to worry about a US default. For real this time

quote:

Two converging crises are testing American confidence in their financial well-being.

There’s a banking crisis, which regulatory officials and big American banks very much want you to believe is ending after decisive action over the weekend to take over and swallow up another failing bank.

And there’s a debt crisis, which is becoming more urgent as the US approaches the “X-date” – when it would default – and on which opposing lawmakers aren’t currently talking to each other.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday the X-date could arrive as soon as June 1. But it has been a moving target.

President Joe Biden on Monday called the top four congressional leaders, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, to discuss raising the debt ceiling, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

First, on banks, action and agreement
Americans woke up Monday to news that a third US bank, First Republic, had failed. Having catered to wealthy coastal clients, First Republic had been on the edge of collapse since March, when two other regional banks failed.

First Republic Bank was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Monday, and most of its assets were sold to JPMorgan Chase. The culmination of government regulators and the banking industry came together to protect creditors and maintain confidence in the banking system as a whole without exposing taxpayers to an unpopular bailout.

“Nobody is crying over First Republic Bank,” said Christine Romans, CNN’s chief business correspondent, during an appearance on “CNN This Morning.”

“But you don’t want chaos and turmoil to spread to the rest of the banking system,” she added, explaining the takeover.

The former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, speaking to Bloomberg before the takeover, said it’s important to tamp down troubles in the banking system because they can easily spread.

“These things are like forest fires,” said Summers. “It is much easier to prevent them than it is to contain them after they start to spread.”

Praising the intervention, Biden tried to reassure Americans that the banking system was “safe and sound” during an appearance in Washington, DC, on Monday.

Maintaining confidence
None of that means this is a golden chapter for the American financial system. The failure of three banks this year suggests a hard look at how banks are overseen. And the Federal Reserve has lost some credibility among top economists.


“It remains to be seen whether the still-simmering financial turmoil triggered by SVB’s (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse will boil over into a deeper crisis, but investors and depositors have no reason to trust the Fed’s assurances that it will not,” Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and Nobel laureate, wrote for MarketWatch. “Only meaningful reforms of deposit insurance, governance, regulatory structure and supervision can restore confidence in banks and the Fed’s credibility.”

In fact, the FDIC is advocating to raise the amount of deposits insured above the current $250,000 cap. Read more on that developing story.

Now, the debt crisis and the X-date
If only American lawmakers could take a cue from the First Republic saga and get into a room to solve the debt crisis.

Instead, Republican and Democratic lawmakers are still posturing even though the country is a month or so away from the X-date, when it begins defaulting on its debts.

What exactly would happen immediately after the X-date is not entirely clear, but it could lead to a crisis of confidence in the US government, making it more difficult to continue to finance Social Security and Medicare; threaten the value of the dollar, which has been a cornerstone of the world economy; and tip the country into a recession. Read more predictions here.

Not speaking
Rather than clearing their calendars to make sure the government can continue to write checks for all the debt it has already accrued, lawmakers are still in their partisan corners.

Last week, House Republicans made their opening bid in the negotiations by passing a bill to indiscriminately lop off billions in federal spending, revert to 2022 spending levels, undo anti-climate change spending championed by Democrats and impose new work requirements for Medicaid recipients. The bill, which is a nonstarter in the Senate, would also guarantee another debt debate this time next year.

This week, rather than hash things out, McCarthy is in Jerusalem, meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“The president still hasn’t talked to me,” McCarthy said, making clear he wants to negotiate with Biden.

Not a ‘deadbeat nation’
The White House, meanwhile, has argued there should be no negotiation over paying bills for debt sold to cover spending already authorized by Congress.

“America is not a deadbeat nation,” Biden said during that event in Washington, using the term associated with parents who fail to pay child support. “We have never ever failed to meet the debt. And as a result, one of the most respected nations of the world, we pay our bills and we should do so without reckless hostage taking from some of the MAGA Republicans in Congress.”

Worried about the debt debate, not the banks
I asked Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, what separates the debt crisis from the banking crisis.

He told me over the phone he’s not at all worried about the money he has deposited in an American bank, arguing he has complete confidence in the FDIC to cover deposits, as it and banks have done for all three banks that failed this year.

He also pointed out the bank failures represent three relatively small institutions by US standards.

But he is extremely worried about the US defaulting on its debt.

“This generation of bank regulators learned from the mistakes of the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis,” Wolfers said, suggesting they have no qualms about stepping in early to maintain confidence in the financial system.

There is no similar confidence in the nation’s politicians to do the same.

“There’s a great fear that this generation of legislators are more irresponsible, more polarized and more willing to do damage than any previous generation,” he said.

We will, at some point in the very near future, get to the place where Biden and McCarthy, along with other top Democrats and Republicans, must come together to avoid a default or deal with the aftermath of its occurrence. The question is whether the economy is damaged in the meantime.

“I will tell you that I am more worried than I’ve ever been in my career, at this moment, about the sky actually falling,” Wolfers said, noting that in previous standoffs over the debt ceiling, Republicans have ultimately stood down in the face of pressure from more moderate wings of the party. It’s not clear that will happen this time.

Stereotype posted:

you have to buy a "genie pass" which gives you a maximum of like 10 or so fast passes, but should at minimum get you 3. the fast pass is just a different much much shorter line, usually less than five minutes, next to the main line which could be 200 minutes long. the idea is that you have an imaginary "genie" waiting in this line and you can physically go wait in other lines or do whatever while it waits, and then when it "gets to the front" you can go and take it's place and hop on the ride.

the two big tricks are that you can pick one super early in the morning before the park opens, and then once you scan your wristband to get on that ride you can immediately pick another one. you gotta be online and clickin' at 7am, and the good rides usually fill up fast so you will get offered a pass for like 4pm, and that's the trap. there' s a 2 hour timer every time you pick one, but it starts at 9am, so if you get one late in the day then you have to wait till 11am to pick your second ride. they'll all be pretty full by then, so then you probably have to wait till that timer expires again at 1pm for the third, and then by 3pm they're usually all totally full with no more passes left. so the key is to get up at 6am and be there when they open the park and be the first one on the one great ride you want to do (pandora or rise or ratatouille), which avoids possibly hours of lines for it, and then get a series of less popular rides in the morning, and then after lunch grab a high-tier ride for that evening. people seem to think that getting the passes for the 30 min wait rides is a waste, but it's not, because then you'll get another right away and why wait 30 minutes when you can wait zero minutes. like sure 30 minutes is way less than 200 minutes, but i could go on like 6 rides with "30 minute" waits in an hour.

people who only get to go on one ride probably didn't realize the amount of work they were supposed to be doing. if you wake up at 9am and aren't picking actually picking rides to fast-pass then yeah, you aren't gonna get to do much.

Stereotype posted:

you have to buy a "genie pass" which gives you a maximum of like 10 or so fast passes, but should at minimum get you 3. the fast pass is just a different much much shorter line, usually less than five minutes, next to the main line which could be 200 minutes long. the idea is that you have an imaginary "genie" waiting in this line and you can physically go wait in other lines or do whatever while it waits, and then when it "gets to the front" you can go and take it's place and hop on the ride.

the two big tricks are that you can pick one super early in the morning before the park opens, and then once you scan your wristband to get on that ride you can immediately pick another one. you gotta be online and clickin' at 7am, and the good rides usually fill up fast so you will get offered a pass for like 4pm, and that's the trap. there' s a 2 hour timer every time you pick one, but it starts at 9am, so if you get one late in the day then you have to wait till 11am to pick your second ride. they'll all be pretty full by then, so then you probably have to wait till that timer expires again at 1pm for the third, and then by 3pm they're usually all totally full with no more passes left. so the key is to get up at 6am and be there when they open the park and be the first one on the one great ride you want to do (pandora or rise or ratatouille), which avoids possibly hours of lines for it, and then get a series of less popular rides in the morning, and then after lunch grab a high-tier ride for that evening. people seem to think that getting the passes for the 30 min wait rides is a waste, but it's not, because then you'll get another right away and why wait 30 minutes when you can wait zero minutes. like sure 30 minutes is way less than 200 minutes, but i could go on like 6 rides with "30 minute" waits in an hour.

people who only get to go on one ride probably didn't realize the amount of work they were supposed to be doing. if you wake up at 9am and aren't picking actually picking rides to fast-pass then yeah, you aren't gonna get to do much.

euphronius posted:

that’s almost 2 hours long ??

euphronius posted:

that’s almost 2 hours long ??

euphronius posted:

that’s almost 2 hours long ??

euphronius posted:

that’s almost 2 hours long ??

Xaris posted:

cut them some slack. i think they're from oklahoma or nebraska or some midwest shithole, in which case, that's understandable since they only have Sinclair Broadcasting piping Nextdoor dogshit into their brains 24/7 as the only source of news. americans are very dumb but it's really not their fault

Stereotype posted:

you have to buy a "genie pass" which gives you a maximum of like 10 or so fast passes, but should at minimum get you 3. the fast pass is just a different much much shorter line, usually less than five minutes, next to the main line which could be 200 minutes long. the idea is that you have an imaginary "genie" waiting in this line and you can physically go wait in other lines or do whatever while it waits, and then when it "gets to the front" you can go and take it's place and hop on the ride.

the two big tricks are that you can pick one super early in the morning before the park opens, and then once you scan your wristband to get on that ride you can immediately pick another one. you gotta be online and clickin' at 7am, and the good rides usually fill up fast so you will get offered a pass for like 4pm, and that's the trap. there' s a 2 hour timer every time you pick one, but it starts at 9am, so if you get one late in the day then you have to wait till 11am to pick your second ride. they'll all be pretty full by then, so then you probably have to wait till that timer expires again at 1pm for the third, and then by 3pm they're usually all totally full with no more passes left. so the key is to get up at 6am and be there when they open the park and be the first one on the one great ride you want to do (pandora or rise or ratatouille), which avoids possibly hours of lines for it, and then get a series of less popular rides in the morning, and then after lunch grab a high-tier ride for that evening. people seem to think that getting the passes for the 30 min wait rides is a waste, but it's not, because then you'll get another right away and why wait 30 minutes when you can wait zero minutes. like sure 30 minutes is way less than 200 minutes, but i could go on like 6 rides with "30 minute" waits in an hour.

people who only get to go on one ride probably didn't realize the amount of work they were supposed to be doing. if you wake up at 9am and aren't picking actually picking rides to fast-pass then yeah, you aren't gonna get to do much.

a.lo posted:

how do u rent forever

silicone thrills posted:

oh? word?


i dont believe you.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/01/politics/bank-debt-crisis-default-what-matters/index.html

peepeepants posted:

lmao yeah:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yjZpBq1XBE&t=3158s

this whole video is great, btw

Consummate Professional posted:

I think I’d rather stay home and get high. also within my budget

Stereotype posted:

you have to buy a "genie pass" which gives you a maximum of like 10 or so fast passes, but should at minimum get you 3. the fast pass is just a different much much shorter line, usually less than five minutes, next to the main line which could be 200 minutes long. the idea is that you have an imaginary "genie" waiting in this line and you can physically go wait in other lines or do whatever while it waits, and then when it "gets to the front" you can go and take it's place and hop on the ride.

the two big tricks are that you can pick one super early in the morning before the park opens, and then once you scan your wristband to get on that ride you can immediately pick another one. you gotta be online and clickin' at 7am, and the good rides usually fill up fast so you will get offered a pass for like 4pm, and that's the trap. there' s a 2 hour timer every time you pick one, but it starts at 9am, so if you get one late in the day then you have to wait till 11am to pick your second ride. they'll all be pretty full by then, so then you probably have to wait till that timer expires again at 1pm for the third, and then by 3pm they're usually all totally full with no more passes left. so the key is to get up at 6am and be there when they open the park and be the first one on the one great ride you want to do (pandora or rise or ratatouille), which avoids possibly hours of lines for it, and then get a series of less popular rides in the morning, and then after lunch grab a high-tier ride for that evening. people seem to think that getting the passes for the 30 min wait rides is a waste, but it's not, because then you'll get another right away and why wait 30 minutes when you can wait zero minutes. like sure 30 minutes is way less than 200 minutes, but i could go on like 6 rides with "30 minute" waits in an hour.

people who only get to go on one ride probably didn't realize the amount of work they were supposed to be doing. if you wake up at 9am and aren't picking actually picking rides to fast-pass then yeah, you aren't gonna get to do much.

silicone thrills posted:

oh? word?


i dont believe you.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/01/politics/bank-debt-crisis-default-what-matters/index.html

Justin Tyme posted:

disney world? good god no, i go to busch gardens like an adult...

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

The best video on YouTube is whatever video the USCSB has just released

Stereotype posted:

you have to buy a "genie pass" which gives you a maximum of like 10 or so fast passes, but should at minimum get you 3. the fast pass is just a different much much shorter line, usually less than five minutes, next to the main line which could be 200 minutes long. the idea is that you have an imaginary "genie" waiting in this line and you can physically go wait in other lines or do whatever while it waits, and then when it "gets to the front" you can go and take it's place and hop on the ride.

the two big tricks are that you can pick one super early in the morning before the park opens, and then once you scan your wristband to get on that ride you can immediately pick another one. you gotta be online and clickin' at 7am, and the good rides usually fill up fast so you will get offered a pass for like 4pm, and that's the trap. there' s a 2 hour timer every time you pick one, but it starts at 9am, so if you get one late in the day then you have to wait till 11am to pick your second ride. they'll all be pretty full by then, so then you probably have to wait till that timer expires again at 1pm for the third, and then by 3pm they're usually all totally full with no more passes left. so the key is to get up at 6am and be there when they open the park and be the first one on the one great ride you want to do (pandora or rise or ratatouille), which avoids possibly hours of lines for it, and then get a series of less popular rides in the morning, and then after lunch grab a high-tier ride for that evening. people seem to think that getting the passes for the 30 min wait rides is a waste, but it's not, because then you'll get another right away and why wait 30 minutes when you can wait zero minutes. like sure 30 minutes is way less than 200 minutes, but i could go on like 6 rides with "30 minute" waits in an hour.

people who only get to go on one ride probably didn't realize the amount of work they were supposed to be doing. if you wake up at 9am and aren't picking actually picking rides to fast-pass then yeah, you aren't gonna get to do much.

webcams for christ posted:

fits my needs posted:

people will put up with all this bullshit for disneyland, but its too much for buses and trains and whatever

fits my needs posted:

people will put up with all this bullshit for disneyland, but its too much for buses and trains and whatever

SKULL.GIF posted:

Is this prodromal schizophrenia?

Smythe posted:

what if we put the star tours robot at the front of the bus.... ? and hid the real bus driver. or made the real bus driver dress like the star tours robot? ??

quote:

In America’s richest enclaves, word spread quickly: A bank was offering loans on sweet terms.

Wealthy homebuyers and property investors with high incomes and sterling credit scores could get a mortgage from First Republic Bank with a rock-bottom rate for several years. Better yet, they didn’t have to start repaying the principal for a decade.

Across Manhattan, the San Francisco Bay area and Southern California, those terms attracted legions of wealthy clients — including executives from other banks — as interest rates sank during the pandemic. The loans left borrowers with more cash to invest and spend than if they financed their properties with more conventional mortgages. Demand was so strong that it helped First Republic double its assets in four years, while deposits surged.

Now, it's all looking like a colossal mistake.

***

Among Wall Streeters, it was an open secret that the San Francisco-based lender was offering particularly attractive terms on mortgages. New York City property records from the past few years show customers came from all over the financial sector and included industry leaders such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President John Waldron, who took out an $11.2 million mortgage in June 2020, and R. Lawrence Roth, a board member at Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.

Another Goldman Sachs partner, a former executive at Blackstone Inc. and a managing director at private equity firm Sycamore Partners also borrowed millions from the bank, the property records show.

Beyond the finance industry, other examples of First Republic customers with seven-figure mortgages in New York include music mogul Todd Moscowitz, as well as an executive at a technology venture and the owner of a fine-art gallery, according to property records. All of their loans had 10-year interest-only periods and rates starting below 3%.

***

The firm’s annual reports show the business grew for years and then took off as interest rates bottomed out in 2020 and 2021. In that period, a Bloomberg News analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act records shows that the bank made more than $19 billion in mortgages with interest-only payments in three metro areas alone: San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York. The debt also flowed in a big way to the Hamptons and the wine country north of San Francisco.

Last year, borrowers who opted for interest-only payments made $1 million a year on average, more than double the earnings of First Republic customers who opted for mortgages without that feature, the data show.

Interest-only mortgages made up a higher share of originations at First Republic than at any of its peers over the past half-decade, the analysis of HMDA data shows. By the start of this year, 59% of the bank’s loan book was comprised of single-family mortgages, and three-fifths of those — about $58 billion — were still in interest-only periods, according to the firm’s annual report. Principal payments on the vast majority don’t start until at least 2028.

Paradoxish posted:

people can't wait to ride the disney monorail but they won't get on a loving bus lmao

Xaris posted:

get with da times gramps, star tours hasnt been around since 2006. it's now c3p0's incredible star journey adventure with pals and friends

i bet u still think captain eo is a thing. NO! it's now the epic star wars greedo shot first cantina with 3d goggles

and oh boy gramps you're so olde you probably think the tiki room is a thing. it's the fab Moana presents undersea musical sing-a-long, i'm so golddd

skooma512 posted:

It's still at the CA one

Stereotype posted:

you have to buy a "genie pass" which gives you a maximum of like 10 or so fast passes, but should at minimum get you 3. the fast pass is just a different much much shorter line, usually less than five minutes, next to the main line which could be 200 minutes long. the idea is that you have an imaginary "genie" waiting in this line and you can physically go wait in other lines or do whatever while it waits, and then when it "gets to the front" you can go and take it's place and hop on the ride.

the two big tricks are that you can pick one super early in the morning before the park opens, and then once you scan your wristband to get on that ride you can immediately pick another one. you gotta be online and clickin' at 7am, and the good rides usually fill up fast so you will get offered a pass for like 4pm, and that's the trap. there' s a 2 hour timer every time you pick one, but it starts at 9am, so if you get one late in the day then you have to wait till 11am to pick your second ride. they'll all be pretty full by then, so then you probably have to wait till that timer expires again at 1pm for the third, and then by 3pm they're usually all totally full with no more passes left. so the key is to get up at 6am and be there when they open the park and be the first one on the one great ride you want to do (pandora or rise or ratatouille), which avoids possibly hours of lines for it, and then get a series of less popular rides in the morning, and then after lunch grab a high-tier ride for that evening. people seem to think that getting the passes for the 30 min wait rides is a waste, but it's not, because then you'll get another right away and why wait 30 minutes when you can wait zero minutes. like sure 30 minutes is way less than 200 minutes, but i could go on like 6 rides with "30 minute" waits in an hour.

people who only get to go on one ride probably didn't realize the amount of work they were supposed to be doing. if you wake up at 9am and aren't picking actually picking rides to fast-pass then yeah, you aren't gonna get to do much.