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Orthanc6 posted:I mean a chunk of the Republican party, including their former President and likely future Presidential candidate literally tried to overthrow the existing US Government, so them not caring at all for the well-being of the nation seems a feature, not a bug. Even if Biden wins next year, a Republican is probably going to be president again sometime this decade just because of how US voters tend to switch parties every few terms for Reasons What will we do when that happens? Hope that the GOP became less extreme by that time?
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May 15, 2023 23:57
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Queering Wheel posted:Even if Biden wins next year, a Republican is probably going to be president again sometime this decade just because of how US voters tend to switch parties every few terms for Reasons The current strategy is to pray that demographic change / olds dying off fixes everything
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May 16, 2023 00:01
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Queering Wheel posted:US voters tend to switch parties every few terms for Reasons I feel like that may be on the verge of becoming fallacious "common knowledge" in the same way that we used to believe that people become more conservative as they age. Certainly the amount of "I will never vote ______ as long as I live" has probably increased recently and the perception that the parties are interchangeable is decreasing
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May 16, 2023 00:01
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The current strategy is to pray that demographic change / olds dying off fixes everything
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May 16, 2023 00:03
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People don’t become more conservative as they get older, but it looks that way sometimes because the rich ones live longer than the poor ones, and the rich ones are the most conservative.
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May 16, 2023 00:09
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yeah the problem is that older people still vote more as a percentage than younger people, and that also doesn't account for voting restrictions like those that have passed in a lot of red states, or just plain old gerrymandering Whether you buy into the demographic argument or not, the age/voter relationship and voter suppression aren't arguments against That's why it was always a "starting around 2024 or so" rather than earlier because that's when heavily Democratic cohorts aging into the reliable voter range while heavily Republican cohorts die off at an accelerating rate. Voter suppression and gerrymandering counteract but they've been doing that already and it generally makes a small difference that matters mostly in already-close races. In short, neither of those are infinite resources for Republicans, and they're pretty well-tapped right now. A better argument would be that places under Republican control will make further moves to simply disregard undesirable election results. That also has practical limits, but it at least gives a theoretical counter for what happens when "no Republican wins in the under-30 demographic" turns into "no Republican wins in the under-40 demographic" turns into "no Republican wins in the under-50 demographic" etc. I AM GRANDO posted:People don’t become more conservative as they get older, but it looks that way sometimes because the rich ones live longer than the poor ones, and the rich ones are the most conservative. That's part. It's also that historically people become wealthier as they get older and because someone who is socially progressive as a young person might become a socially conservative old person because they never changed their views. It doesn't apply as much to economics in a time when young people aren't becoming wealthier with age, or to conservatives going full regressive and heading back to take another swing at things like no-fault divorce that most young people today barely know used to be a hot-button women's rights issue.
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May 16, 2023 00:24
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Queering Wheel posted:Even if Biden wins next year, a Republican is probably going to be president again sometime this decade just because of how US voters tend to switch parties every few terms for Reasons The entire party is dangerous, but Trump and the reps who drank his kool-aid are an existential threat. Fascism is built around a central figurehead, certainly the causes of fascism are still there bubbling underneath without a central figure, but history has shown that it needs that figure to catalyze action to break the system. Trump personally tried to do that on Jan 6, the US can't afford to flip the coin on that again. Any danger of action to prevent Trump from taking office is hypothetical, we have empirical evidence for the danger of letting him back in office. At this time I don't see anyone who would replace him, his toadies aren't popular enough to hold the entire nation, and the old-guard Republicans were clobbered by Trump in 2016, and prefer the status-quo anyways. Desantis if he somehow got both the nomination and the win would be horrible, but I don't see him trying another Jan 6. It's seriously looking like the US has the choice of making a viable 3rd party, or forcing out the treasonous parts of the Republican party. Whichever of those seemingly impossible tasks is easier is what US democracy needs to survive.
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May 16, 2023 00:26
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I AM GRANDO posted:People don’t become more conservative as they get older, but it looks that way sometimes because the rich ones live longer than the poor ones, and the rich ones are the most conservative. That was one of the revelations that both rang incredibly true to my data analyst gut, and is very depressing. Of *course* that's an easy way to get that correlation.
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May 16, 2023 00:43
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Well this is pretty straightforward. https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1658268527764070401
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May 16, 2023 01:47
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Well this is pretty straightforward. Really hope the dems crank the volume on this kind of messaging. Frame it as them loving with medicare and social security and blast it all over the air, even if it has no direct relation to either.
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May 16, 2023 02:01
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https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2023/05/florida-gov-ron-desantis-signs-bill-legalizing-anti-lgbtq-medical-discrimination/ https://www.pnj.com/story/news/politics/2023/05/11/florida-gov-ron-desantis-signs-sb-1580-medical-conscious-bill/70205359007/ Flordia has made it legal for medical professionals to refuse to give treatment to someone, even if that treatment is emergency medical stablizing treatment on basis of concuise or moral reasons. The law specfically disallows discrimination on race, color, religion, sex, or national orign. Of course, you could just make up some bullshit reason for not treating someone for even the protected reasons too.
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May 16, 2023 02:22
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wasn't aware we had moved from "right-to-work" to "right-to-live", but here we are
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May 16, 2023 02:42
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May 16, 2023 02:58
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Twincityhacker posted:https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2023/05/florida-gov-ron-desantis-signs-bill-legalizing-anti-lgbtq-medical-discrimination/ Growing up I lived in a trailer park. In high school I worked there too. Big riding mowers weed eating, ditch digging, bath room cleaning, etc. one of the residents a retiree who also worked there was named Dave. Dave was about the kindest old guy you can imagine. Dave loved to paint. I’ve got two of Dave’s paintings, one of my wedding and another of the old man of the mountain. Anyway Dave lived with another old man named Ed. Ed was the quiet stern with a heart of gold type. They met each other as Uranium miners for the bomb programs in the Cold War. I think they had separate families at one point before being together. Any way they both had health consequences from that work. Issues with the cartilage in their joints along other things. One time Dave went into a hospital with Ed. This was a local Hospital that has been owned by the city but was sold to a Catholic operator. Dave and Ed go in, no issues. Ed gets his surgery and is unconscious. They kick Dave out once Ed goes under. They refuse to allow Dave to make decisions even though they had gone through the legal process to make that okay. ( this is before legalization of gay marriage.) They insisted all decisions must be made by Ed’s kids who , were not in communication. Ed comes out okay. But they never went to that hospital again (and probably could and should have sued). People are absolutely going to die in Florida because of this law. Quiet kind people who don’t want to bother anyone and just want to live their lives.
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May 16, 2023 03:30
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What would make it really great for people like Dave & Ed is if we had a standardized, federalized government-regulated healthcare system that states couldn't gently caress with, as we currently have for olds under Medicare (and for vets under Tricare, although I don't know about that as much as I do Medicare, and I know a lot has been privatized, as is the case with "Medicare" "Advantage"). Because 80,000 people are already dying each year for being uninsured or underinsured, according to Sanders. Seems like the way to eradicate exclusionary healthcare would be to save those lives, as well as the future lives that pols like DeSantis intend to kill, by instituting federalized healthcare. I haven't heard many--or for that matter, any--Democratic or activist groups point that out, for some reason. Does anyone know if that's been brought up? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 16, 2023 04:08
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Twincityhacker posted:https://nwww.lgbtqnation.com/2023/05/florida-gov-ron-desantis-signs-bill-legalizing-anti-lgbtq-medical-discriminatio/ Seems like a great way to deny anti-vax folks care since they don't fall under the protected classes either. Can't see this back firing...nope.
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May 16, 2023 04:18
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Willa Rogers posted:What would make it really great for people like Dave & Ed is if we had a standardized, federalized government-regulated healthcare system that states couldn't gently caress with, as we currently have for olds under Medicare (and for vets under Tricare, although I don't know about that as much as I do Medicare, and I know a lot has been privatized, as is the case with "Medicare" "Advantage"). I believe they were old enough for Medicare but I don’t remember and this was after “ advantage “ was created so I dunno. My childhood was mostly spent around your parents generation. Dave and Ed were a bit younger though silent generation not WWII. But yes we should have National healthcare too.
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May 16, 2023 04:21
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deadly potato posted:Seems like a great way to deny anti-vax folks care since they don't fall under the protected classes either. Can't see this back firing...nope. It's going to be selectively (not) enforced and well know it.
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May 16, 2023 04:45
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I believe they were old enough for Medicare but I don’t remember and this was after “ advantage “ was created so I dunno. My childhood was mostly spent around your parents generation. Dave and Ed were a bit younger though silent generation not WWII. Yes, the federalized legalization of gay marriage would've helped them, too, had they lived their lives later. It's not a matter of "we should have national healthcare" but rather "federalizing healthcare would prevent states from setting absurd gatekeeping" as under our current fragmented & state-regulated system. E.g.: Medicare covers trans care, and Florida can't do poo poo about it except try to scare doctors into not providing it, in which case scaredy doctors would lose those precious government dollars toward the olds' healthcare. IME, doctors love the (non-medicare advantage) olds healthcare, bc it's the last of fee-for-service & bc the government incentivizes a lot of expensive testing under the auspices of "preventive care." There's a reason something like 98 percent of all providers accept (traditional) Medicare assignment, in spite of their complaints about low rates set by the feds. (What they lose in rates they make up by volume.) Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 04:56 on May 16, 2023 |
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May 16, 2023 04:52
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I don’t think this is a given. You always have to keep in mind that the majority of Americans are not as tuned into the minutia of political drama as the folks ITT. Most of them will know two things: 1. the economy has poo poo the bed and 2. Biden is the president. The rest will be filled in by their talking head of choice, or a meme that their second cousin shared on facebook.
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May 16, 2023 05:14
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Willa Rogers posted:Yes, the federalized legalization of gay marriage would've helped them, too, had they lived their lives later. I think that they had set up power of attorney. It was really disgusting / outright illegal on the part of the hospital. What’s happening in Florida It’s not just scaring folks , it’s empowering malign folks. Setting healthcare aside for a second… the fash are targeting things like boards (elected and things like not for profits and social organizations) in just about every area one can think of particularly in Sarasota county, especially Sarasota and Venice specifically . Capturing community organizations. They’ve been buying up property and making “retreat centers” and “planned conservative communities “ Flynn seems to have decided that’s were the center of his Q bullshit would be several years ago. You aren’t wrong. But you might not know the exacerbating changes happening in the state. It’s getting beyond policy in Florida and it’s just the start.
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May 16, 2023 05:49
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Orthanc6 posted:It's seriously looking like the US has the choice of making a viable 3rd party, or forcing out the treasonous parts of the Republican party. Whichever of those seemingly impossible tasks is easier is what US democracy needs to survive. I've been thinking that if a left-wing 3rd party were to try making inroads in America while we're still stuck in first-past-the-post hell, the best course of action would be to focus on specific states rather than instantly trying for a national approach. States that have managed to implement FPTP alternatives (Alaska), have some other system that helps mitigate spoilers (California with its Jungle Primaries), and states where either the democrat party is practically vestigial (Florida), or states where the republican party is vestigial and so the state dems have calcified into a group of succdems. Basically states where the state dems just loving suck.
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May 16, 2023 06:38
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Digamma-F-Wau posted:I've been thinking that if a left-wing 3rd party were to try making inroads in America while we're still stuck in first-past-the-post hell, the best course of action would be to focus on specific states rather than instantly trying for a national approach. States that have managed to implement FPTP alternatives (Alaska), have some other system that helps mitigate spoilers (California with its Jungle Primaries), and states where either the democrat party is practically vestigial (Florida), or states where the republican party is vestigial and so the state dems have calcified into a group of succdems. Basically states where the state dems just loving suck. Makes sense, pretty much the same thing that the Greens in Australia do. (obviously a very different situation given Australia's voting system, but just the first comparison that came to mind) Of course, similarly a left-wing third party absolutely would become a despised pariah, but that's just a given for being leftist in America either way. How the Democrats as an organisation would react to such is an interesting question. You already get shenanigans like Nevada where the succdems outright ran off with the funding and started their own thing when leftists took over the state party.
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May 16, 2023 06:52
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If someone/s can't build a base of support to win a primary, surely they will set up a 3rd party and take over a state.
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May 16, 2023 07:27
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koolkal posted:If someone/s can't build a base of support to win a primary, surely they will set up a 3rd party and take over a state. It's this. As long as leftists in the States just go with the good vibes and love approach they have gone thus far, they will get trounced by those who utilize hate and fear (Republicans) or those with established networks that allow them to marshal voters better than begging for people's better natures (Succdems).
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May 16, 2023 10:58
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Problem is, as soon as a third party would manage to make any sort of meaningful headway, their platform either gets co-opted by the Dems (Oh yeah, we actually believe in all of that stuff they're saying too despite all visible evidence to the contrary, and we're the most "electable!"), Or it will suddenly be against the rules to win an election while third party (Oh, we don't like the font on their paperwork, or we just decided to abolish the position we're about to lose.)
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May 16, 2023 11:07
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Riptor posted:sanders is older than biden fyi That's kind of what I meant.
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May 16, 2023 11:12
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the_steve posted:Problem is, as soon as a third party would manage to make any sort of meaningful headway, their platform either gets co-opted by the Dems (Oh yeah, we actually believe in all of that stuff they're saying too despite all visible evidence to the contrary, and we're the most "electable!"), Or it will suddenly be against the rules to win an election while third party (Oh, we don't like the font on their paperwork, or we just decided to abolish the position we're about to lose.) The latter genuinely happens literally all the time in the US, too, there's concerted efforts to have third parties stricken from the ballot for spurious reasons every election, from both major parties.
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May 16, 2023 11:29
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the_steve posted:Problem is, as soon as a third party would manage to make any sort of meaningful headway, their platform either gets co-opted by the Dems (Oh yeah, we actually believe in all of that stuff they're saying too despite all visible evidence to the contrary, and we're the most "electable!"), Or it will suddenly be against the rules to win an election while third party (Oh, we don't like the font on their paperwork, or we just decided to abolish the position we're about to lose.) Yes I’m reminded of the shenanigans used to keep the Green Party off the ballot in numerous swing states in 2020, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I can’t help but roll my eyes whenever people talk about the sanctity of our “democracy” when the constituents are denied the right to vote for third parties. E: Ghost Leviathan posted:The latter genuinely happens literally all the time in the US, too, there's concerted efforts to have third parties stricken from the ballot for spurious reasons every election, from both major parties. Does this happen with the GOP and the Libertarian Party? I’d never vote for either party so I never bothered to pay attention, so please forgive my ignorance. It wouldn’t surprise me as Libertarian party garners more votes from right-wing voters than Green Party gets from left-wing voters Cool NIN Shirt fucked around with this message at 11:33 on May 16, 2023 |
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May 16, 2023 11:31
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Cool NIN Shirt posted:Yes I’m reminded of the shenanigans used to keep the Green Party off the ballot in numerous swing states in 2020, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I can’t help but roll my eyes whenever people talk about the sanctity of our “democracy” when the constituents are denied the right to vote for third parties. Last time I brought this up I thought not, but apparently it does happen occasionally. Probably not as often as Dems try to get the Greens stricken from the ballot. And even in Australia where ranked choice and preferential voting are baked in, the major parties absolutely do the same thing of variously constantly whining about minor parties (especially the Greens) and blaming them for everything in between co-opting their policies with various levels of sincerity. Unfortunately the conservative party's tendency had been to start spouting- and implementing- the same wildly racist rhetoric of fascist minor parties.
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May 16, 2023 11:44
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Charliegrs posted:It's a winning issue for them because if there's a default and the economy crashes people are going to blame Biden. Most people don't pay attention to any of this inside baseball politics stuff. They are just going to see the economy crashing down around them on Bidens watch. And even the few pay that pay attention maybe a little bit? They are just going to be wondering why they have now lost their jobs all because Biden wouldn't sign off on making welfare people have to work for their welfare or whatever else their local (Sinclair owned) news station tells them. And well doggoneit they never even heard of this debt limit thing during the Trump years so obviously he was a better president and the election is right around the corner and he's running again so... Trump has gone on record that he thinks congress should let the country default. I’m not sure how Biden catches the blame for something Republicans want to do.
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May 16, 2023 12:05
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Bird in a Blender posted:Trump has gone on record that he thinks congress should let the country default. I’m not sure how Biden catches the blame for something Republicans want to do. Because he's the president, that's why. Most People™ don't pay any more attention than that and think the president has the power of a king.
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May 16, 2023 12:08
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Star Man posted:Because he's the president, that's why. Most People™ don't pay any more attention than that and think the president has the power of a king. Like it or not, the president is in charge of the US and if things go to poo poo under his/her watch that means they are ineffectual at best. I’m going to have to agree with Truman here.
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May 16, 2023 12:15
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I get where you're coming from, but if we go back to the government shutdown of 2013 (which I know is not the same as what we're talking about now), the public generally blamed Republicans for it, even though Obama was president. So we do have some history of the public looking beyond just who the president is. I think Dems can possibly control the narrative enough that more people blame Republicans for a default. I'd rather not get to that point though.
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May 16, 2023 12:28
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Ghost Leviathan posted:The latter genuinely happens literally all the time in the US, too, there's concerted efforts to have third parties stricken from the ballot for spurious reasons every election, from both major parties. *sad Green party living in PA noises*
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May 16, 2023 12:31
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Mike Pence has been saying for months that he and his family have been praying to God for a decision on whether he should run for President. Apparently, God finally responded to his message after ghosting him for almost 7 months. He seems to have at least planned ahead with a strategy more than DeSantis, but still likely isn't going anywhere. His plan: - Basically live in Iowa for the next year. - Spend all the money he has raised on framing himself "as his own man" and positive ads about himself. - Focus on evangelical voters. - Try to find a lane as "the classical conservative" candidate "Classical Conservative" = Focus on debt, go back to dogwhistles on the racism and condemn explicit racism, free trade, neoconservative foreign policy, go as hard as possible on abortion and attack others for being soft, and - ironically - tone down the culture war stuff by going back to 2004 culture wars about religious freedom/religious discrimination and passing on attacking "woke businesses," "liberal colleges," and regulating the media. - He's also running explicitly as a deficit hawk and openly cutting social security and Medicare. DeSantis voted to cut Medicare and Social security in Congress, but now says he wants to "make changes to ensure it lasts without affecting current beneficiaries" instead of openly defending it. Trump is on his usual "all over the place" position on these issues. He said he wasn't in favor of cutting them in 2016, then proposed budgets that cut them every year as President, now says that Republicans will need to cut them to get the debt under control, but they shouldn't do it right now because it is bad politics. Pence plans to attack them for "echoing Joe Biden" by falling into his trap about saying they are "never going to touch Social Security and Medicare" - Focus on civility, flooding Iowa with TV ads, and showing up in-person to as many places in Iowa as possible. It's kind of ironic that Mike Pence is trying to position himself as the "civil" candidate and who is "toning down" the culture war. But, it feels like a campaign centered around being a deficit hawk, toning down the culture war, cutting Medicare and Social Security, restoring civility, and being as extreme as possible on abortion is basically a campaign made in a lab to combine all the traits most unappealing to the Republican base and the traits most likely to turn off swing voters in a general election into one candidate. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1658336510708523009 quote:Pence Looks Toward 2024 Run, Using Reagan’s Playbook, Not Trump’s
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May 16, 2023 14:20
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the_steve posted:Problem is, as soon as a third party would manage to make any sort of meaningful headway, their platform either gets co-opted by the Dems (Oh yeah, we actually believe in all of that stuff they're saying too despite all visible evidence to the contrary, and we're the most "electable!"), Or it will suddenly be against the rules to win an election while third party (Oh, we don't like the font on their paperwork, or we just decided to abolish the position we're about to lose.) Honestly, so what? That's politics. Nobody plays nice, and if your strategy requires your opponents to play nice, then it's a fantasy. There's no point in pissing and moaning about it. A rival political movement capable of seriously challenging both the Dems and the GOP wouldn't be stopped by things like that, because it would have the most important thing at all: mass public support. There's all sorts of things they can do against a party or movement getting 6% of the vote, but they can't really pull bullshit against a party or movement getting 60% of the vote.
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May 16, 2023 14:26
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Mike Pence Lol
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May 16, 2023 14:29
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So is Pence actively trying to get the lowest amount of votes in history? Because I'm pretty sure almost every one of those points will drive away a large chunk of people.
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May 16, 2023 14:35
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Randalor posted:So is Pence actively trying to get the lowest amount of votes in history? Because I'm pretty sure almost every one of those points will drive away a large chunk of people. Why are the people he’s trying to court going to go with a guy who dogwhistles when Trump is right there? It’s also going to be the same problem for him as it is for DeSantis where they can’t really go after Trump that hard even when they want to.
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May 16, 2023 14:42
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