|
Vincent Van Goatse posted:Make waifus, not war. Alas, A better motto for a better world
|
#
?
May 15, 2023 18:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 05:03 |
|
|
I think Perun's analysis that Ukranian forces in Bakhmut have largely been 2nd line units and not NATO equipped divisions is largely on point. There just hasn't been enough of a pipeline of weapons into Ukranian hands, and while they've undoubtedly used HIMARS/CAESAR/(insert western artillery system here) in the defense of Bakhmut, these systems are comparatively under less risk of being destroyed while the air environment remains contested. If the Ukranian counter offensive materializes, it will be localized and aimed at the continued attrition of the Russian armed forces. It, barring some unbelievable collapse, probably won't take much ground and will probably be focused in Southern Ukraine aimed at some logistical key point, like rail lines or cross roads so that future Russian logistics will be that much more complicated. Ultimately, I feel that the strategy right now is to inflict some (in the grand scale of things) minor defeat on the Russians to keep morale high, and to inflict higher casualties than sustained while keeping as much valuable NATO weapon systems intact as possible. For all of the heady drama of the first year of the war, this conflict has become attritional over positional in nature, and I feel that in a conflict of that naturr, the game plan is to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian formations while maintaining the ability of the Ukranian state to fight the war. That is, play not to lose as long as you can. For the Russians, fighting a brutal attritional battle over Bakhmut was ineffectual. I wonder how many men Putin can sacrifice in this war in Ukraine before his own power is seriously challenged from within.500k? A million? The manpower of the outer Russian provinces is not unlimited, and eventually actual Russians from Moscow,Petrograd, and St.Petersburg are going to be conscripted to fight in large numbers.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2023 23:18
|
|
|
A Festivus Miracle posted:
There is a 20 million mobilization reserve and with about 100k kia+wia yearly turnover it can go on until Putin and his inner circle wither into cryptkeepers.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2023 23:23
|
|
|
I object to the term "real russians." I get what you meant but it's not the best wording
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 00:05
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:There is a 20 million mobilization reserve and with about 100k kia+wia yearly turnover it can go on until Putin and his inner circle wither into cryptkeepers. The "20 million reserve" Shoigu was quoted as having is largely fictional, given that there are literally only 20 million men aged 18-45 in Russia. I guess they could move on to mobilizing women but Russia's history in that regard has been... let's just say "not good". The RuAF hasn't been able to equip the people they mobilized last wave, much less any kind of training. Any further mobilization will result in less combat effective troops and more cannon fodder for Wagner-style suicide assaults. And Russian society does not have an endless tolerance for throwing away young men.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 00:09
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:There is a 20 million mobilization reserve and with about 100k kia+wia yearly turnover it can go on until Putin and his inner circle wither into cryptkeepers. Oh, I'm not thinking that Russia will literally run out of men to shove into the path of a speeding artillery round, I'm thinking about at what point causalities, economic hardship, inflationary pressures (for buying hardware), and battlefield losses will converge to create the conditions wherein one of Putin's chiefs can overtake the old boss. Russia is trying to pay for a major war (stupendously expensive) while also facing a lovely monospony situation with it's chief export wherein India and China can demand lower prices because they have the whole planet to buy from. At some point, something has got to give and the idea that the Western powers will stop shovelling money into the furnance before the Russians is something that exists only in the most tankie of dreams.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 00:20
|
|
|
fartknocker posted:“Ukrainian Hentai AK” is a hell of a username. Waifu Raifu
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 00:54
|
|
|
Head Canon
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 01:04
|
|
|
Coquito Ergo Sum posted:Kawaiishnikov.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 01:21
|
|
|
Dakkamakura
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 01:23
|
|
|
We train young men to drop fire on people. But their commanders won't let them put hentai stickers on their rifle because it's obscene!
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 01:39
|
|
|
PurpleXVI posted:https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-welcomes-president-zelenskyy-to-the-uk-ahead-of-anticipated-ukrainian-military-surge Really surprised by that, given this analysis posted upthread! https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/how-can-ukraine-survive-the-exhaustion-of-its-air-defense-stocks The tl;dl of why not to use the F-16 put forward in that podcast is
The podcast then went on to suggest the Swedish Gripen, which is designed to operate from short, lovely runways, fly at low altitude, and can use the Meteor air-to-air missile that is perfectly happy at/from low altitude. And apparently easier to learn to fly than the Viper. As much as I love the F-16, I found the above very convincing (not that I'm an irl plane-flier, military or otherwise). I'd be very interested to know why they decided to go with the F-16 after all!
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 01:51
|
|
|
The runway angle, IDK, I'm not an engineer, but I'm skeptical how much of a problem that would really be. Historically it's very difficult to take out a runway for any length of time using cruise missiles, it's pretty quick to patch things up at least to the level of supporting fighter aircraft. We're not talking about landing massive, heavy transports or anything. Yeah, the F-16 isn't designed for operating off dirt strips or whatever, but like, any road repair crew should be able to suffice. Fuel efficiency, it really depends how they're trying to use their jets. If it's mainly point defense or shorter range applications then it's not that big a deal. If they're wanting to conduct more offensive, long-range strikes then maybe, but I don't believe the Gripen is any champion of long endurance either. I most strongly disagree with the idea that it's AIM-120D or bust. The 120C is still an extremely effective missile. Yeah, like any missile it will do better if you shoot it from higher/faster, but if you're down skimming the treetops you're probably doing it so you can get in closer to your target anyway. Again, it really depends on what they're trying to do. That's not to say the Gripen wouldn't be a very good option for them as well, it does seem well suited for the kind of fight that Ukraine is in. But ultimately I trust that Ukraine has the best overall picture of what support would help them the most, so if they're asking for F-16's there's probably some good reason.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 02:10
|
|
|
Are there a shitload of Gripens sitting around available to send to Ukraine?
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 02:13
|
|
|
Hyperlynx posted:As much as I love the F-16, I found the above very convincing (not that I'm an irl plane-flier, military or otherwise). I'd be very interested to know why they decided to go with the F-16 after all! Assuming that analysis is correct, it might be something as simple as the volume of available planes. 4500 F-16's have been produced over the years, while under 200 Saab Gripens have been made.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 02:16
|
|
|
Coquito Ergo Sum posted:Kawaiishnikov.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 02:21
|
|
|
my kinda ape posted:Are there a shitload of Gripens sitting around available to send to Ukraine? Depends on your definition of a shitload because, according to Wikipedia, only 271 have been produced in total. Edit: I'm also remembering an article from a couple months back that Saab couldn't find buyers for the Gripen. The TL;DR being the F-35 has better performance, and alternatively South Korea makes an equivalent that's cheaper. Action-Bastard fucked around with this message at 02:47 on May 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 02:41
|
|
|
kalel posted:I object to the term "real russians." I get what you meant but it's not the best wording lmfao Perhaps you would prefer the imperialist Greater Russian https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Russia. In fact, it’s gained quite a bit of popularity in state media recently (for whatever reason) Historically ethnic Russians don’t share your concerns over inclusivity for the Ingush or Buryat or Turkmen or Tuvans or Bashkir or Chuvash or Avars etc etc Victis fucked around with this message at 02:56 on May 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 02:45
|
|
|
Hyperlynx posted:Really surprised by that, given this analysis posted upthread! The F-16 is one of the platforms with a robust SEAD mission profile. If the UAF is ever going to roll back the Russians AD capability it would likely be with lots of HARMs fired by F-16s
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 03:27
|
|
|
Wingnut Ninja posted:The runway angle, IDK, I'm not an engineer, but I'm skeptical how much of a problem that would really be. Historically it's very difficult to take out a runway for any length of time using cruise missiles, it's pretty quick to patch things up at least to the level of supporting fighter aircraft. We're not talking about landing massive, heavy transports or anything. Yeah, the F-16 isn't designed for operating off dirt strips or whatever, but like, any road repair crew should be able to suffice. For sure. But you can cruise-missile the hangars at or near the nice F-16-worthy runway knowing that they're likely to be the ones they're in. But, at any rate, I didn't mean that I think they're making a mistake and they shouldn't be going for the F-16 (I'm not remotely able to make that analysis!). It's just that the arguments I heard against it sounded very convincing, and I'm interested to hear explanations for why they would go for it. PurpleXVI posted:Assuming that analysis is correct, it might be something as simple as the volume of available planes. 4500 F-16's have been produced over the years, while under 200 Saab Gripens have been made. Makes sense to me. If the Viper is suboptimal but you can actually get it, maybe it's literally better than nothing?
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 03:45
|
|
|
I have only DCS experience to go by, but I'm inclined to believe that the F-16 can handle only the smoothest of runways. It lands very, very, very delicately at a very specific angle. Now, Super Hornets. Those I could see slamming into a damaged roadway at 400mph.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 03:49
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1658251047654096896
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 04:19
|
|
|
A Festivus Miracle posted:At some point, something has got to give and the idea that the Western powers will stop shovelling money into the furnance before the Russians is something that exists only in the most tankie of dreams. As much as some chuds might make the right mouth noises about it, there is no chance in hell we stop funding the defense of Ukraine. This is literally the perfect storm where all of our B and A- list toys get exhaustive (modern peer) battlefield testing, the MIC rakes in enough to make Slaanesh blush, and we get to pay our way into permanently and irrevocably crippling (what we thought was) a near-peer rival. Oh and we have absolute unquestionable moral authority and high ground while we do this, because we're helping an underdog defend against literal genocide. Unless you're a broke-brained tankie, the only things to quibble about are the ethics of the MIC and post-conflict arms proliferation, which I can't give enough of a gently caress about to even minutely change my opinion on funneling boom booms to the blue and yellow boys.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 04:20
|
|
|
Diarrhea Elemental posted:Unless you're a broke-brained tankie, the only things to quibble about are the ethics of the MIC and post-conflict arms proliferation, which I can't give enough of a gently caress about to even minutely change my opinion on funneling boom booms to the blue and yellow boys. It is going to be interesting to see how we, and the rest of the world, downscales procurement after this. We probably won't because "the big one" could happen any day now and by golly, we have to be stocked up enough to not run out of our fun toys during that.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 04:24
|
|
|
Diarrhea Elemental posted:As much as some chuds might make the right mouth noises about it, there is no chance in hell we stop funding the defense of Ukraine. It's going to be fascinating to see all the usual suspects on Twitter regurgitating their "I'm no fan of Putin, but Zelensky is a Nazi!" schtick in the form of "I'm no fan of Trump, but Biden is a Nazi!"
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 04:50
|
|
|
Something like 80% of Ukrainian airspace is safe to operate in at any altitude. Harms and Aim-120Cs can bridge the remainder of that gap, or they can bait Russian AD sites to waste missiles. Its not hard to know where the launchers are though modern sources.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 04:55
|
|
|
M_Gargantua posted:Something like 80% of Ukrainian airspace is safe to operate in at any altitude. Harms and Aim-120Cs can bridge the remainder of that gap, or they can bait Russian AD sites to waste missiles. Its not hard to know where the launchers are though modern sources. And AIM-120Cs outrange anything the Russians have. F-16s could go high and win if they stay out of range of the good SAMs.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 04:59
|
|
|
The F-16 stands little chance against Russia's mighty 5th generation fighter, the Sukhoi Su-57, with its clever emphasis on maneuverability over Western marketing buzzwords like "stealth" and "beyond visual range combat"  Yes, no one stands a chance against the Su-57. All... *checks notes* 11 of them?! Shoigu have you been embezzling vital military R&D funds again!?
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 05:10
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:The F-16 stands little chance against Russia's mighty 5th generation fighter, the Sukhoi Su-57, with its clever emphasis on maneuverability over Western marketing buzzwords like "stealth" and "beyond visual range combat" I think only 3 of them are production models the rest are testing prototypes, right?
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 05:13
|
|
|
Stravag posted:I think only 3 of them are production models the rest are testing prototypes, right? 
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 05:17
|
|
|
Last I heard, the UA airforce was having to operate from very low, though that info could well be out of date. Have things changed? Does Russia no longer have SA-10s and the like in range of the battlefield? Also, the thought has just occurred: what's the UA airforce currently got in terms of strike aircraft? Because the F-16 can still do strikes while down in the dirt... e: but, baiting the Russian airforce into fighting away from SAMs and then pwning them would make sense to me. If you could get them to commit. Hyperlynx fucked around with this message at 05:22 on May 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 05:18
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:The F-16 stands little chance against Russia's mighty 5th generation fighter, the Sukhoi Su-57, with its clever emphasis on maneuverability over Western marketing buzzwords like "stealth" and "beyond visual range combat" Please, an ancient f-14 wasted two
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 05:22
|
|
|
I think they got the patriot (at least part of it) tonight bois 😔 No SAM in the world can win against a total saturation attack. Hopefully Russia wasted an enormous amount of their few remaining missiles on this attack
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 05:36
|
|
|
Scrungus posted:I think they got the patriot (at least part of it) tonight bois 😔 I would like to know more.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 06:39
|
|
|
Scrungus posted:I think they got the patriot (at least part of it) tonight bois 😔 Actually all 18 missiles were shot down and so were the 9 UAVs HonorableTB posted:Edit: Here's the readout of the air forces Ukraine shot down over Kyiv. They really are trying to swarm the air defense batteries with this kind of attack Eventually, something will get through and smoke part of the air defense network especially with how they are deliberately targeting the Patriot system specifically to overwhelm it. But it wasn't tonight.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 06:45
|
|
|
HonorableTB posted:Actually all 18 missiles were shot down and so were the 9 UAVs If this is true, that’s amazing.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 06:55
|
|
|
Scrungus posted:If this is true, that’s amazing. Here's some more information:  If you follow any of the telegram channels, especially the voenkors, you can tell when something went badly for them because you can see Rybar and the other propagandists talking about the massive density attacks, but they are absolutely butt-clenchingly silent while all of the Ukrainian channels light up with memes laughing about how good their air defense is You can see it here - this is an example of the voenkor side getting geared up to crow about the strikes as soon as they get word from the "big" voenkors (think, Rybar/WarGonzo/etc) to post about it on their smaller channels. That cycle gets interrupted and just leaves with cliffhanger posts like this where they just never follow up and everyone memory holes the whole thing to avoid admitting the attacks were a failure:  HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 07:03 on May 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 06:59
|
|
|
I'm guessing that even if Ukraine fielded the F-16 they wouldn't be able to put together one of those giant US-style strike packages, right?
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 07:00
|
|
|
HonorableTB posted:Here's some more information: Air Defense keeping an eye out for SuperCum. Makes sense, really.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 07:07
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 05:03 |
|
|
GD_American posted:I'm guessing that even if Ukraine fielded the F-16 they wouldn't be able to put together one of those giant US-style strike packages, right? Not magically at first, no But western ordinance means SEAD and possible progress towards actual air superiority Which means some strike capability and the potential for CAS beyond lobbing dumb-fires
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2023 07:20
|
|