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fatherboxx)
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One million shells per year sounds great and it’s obviously a huge improvement, but assuming they’re all earmarked for Ukraine it results in 2,700 rounds per day. UAF is firing something like 7,000 rounds per day, and I’m sure they’d fire more if they had them. The sheer volume of artillery ammunition required is breathtaking.
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May 25, 2023 11:36
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:One million shells per year sounds great and it’s obviously a huge improvement, but assuming they’re all earmarked for Ukraine it results in 2,700 rounds per day. UAF is firing something like 7,000 rounds per day, and I’m sure they’d fire more if they had them. The sheer volume of artillery ammunition required is breathtaking. Right, so the EU alone, without digging into stockpiles, will be able to supply about 40% of Ukraine's sustainment needs using only 155mm shells. Not to forget the EU is also producing 152mm, MLRS ammunition and mortar ammunition and so on. That's assuming the EU does absolutely nothing else to ramp up production in the next year and a half. Does this not contradict "lol the eu can't even arm itself" and the idea that Trump being elected will end Ukraine's ability to fight instantly?
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May 25, 2023 11:45
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How many dumb shells is a 155 Bonus or Smart shell worth?
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May 25, 2023 12:12
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OAquinas posted:1) It gets some...problematic yet mutually-aligned people out of Ukraine I think that there is also another aspect of this and that is showing that Russian borders are not well guarded. So you know, places like Kazahstan could join in on the action. Not that I think that they want or need to, but the door has been kicked in, it will be a while till the lock is repaired.
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May 25, 2023 12:31
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Storkrasch posted:Right, so the EU alone, without digging into stockpiles, will be able to supply about 40% of Ukraine's sustainment needs using only 155mm shells. Not to forget the EU is also producing 152mm, MLRS ammunition and mortar ammunition and so on. That's assuming the EU does absolutely nothing else to ramp up production in the next year and a half. They're digging into stocks though: "The first element of the plan encourages EU members to send ammunition from stockpiles, the second provides incentives for countries to place joint orders and the third focuses on helping arms firms increase their production capacities. The 220,000 shells were provided under the first part of the plan, Borrell said. The first joint procurement contracts under the second part of the plan are expected to be signed in the summer, according to officials." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-its-sent-220000-artillery-shells-ukraine-2023-05-23/ And the usual hurdles come up: "“We have a hard time hiring personnel,” two industry officials told EURACTIV, speaking on condition of anonymity." https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/eu-defence-industry-faces-staff-shortage-amid-increased-production-demand/ Kallikaa fucked around with this message at 14:06 on May 25, 2023 |
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May 25, 2023 13:58
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Kallikaa posted:They're digging into stocks though: This was the original comment for context: Charliegrs posted:Kinda hard to keep fighting if your supply of weapons gets cut off. Which is a very real possibility if Trump or Desantis gets elected. Especially if we are in the midst of a massive recession from defaulting on the debt ceiling. I'm talking about 12 months from now, when then plan supposedly produces 1 million shells per year. Today, both the EU and the US is providing shells from stocks. I was just saying that there are other suppliers than the US, and they would be able to sustain the war if they had the will. The EU alone planning to produce 40% of their current expenditure in 12 months is an example of that. Current expenditures are based on existing stocks, both on the Ukrainian and Russian side, so they are likely to come down once supply is limited by production. This is my hot take: Trump is unlikely to become president in the next 12 months, and once he does, he's unlikely to cut of all supplies to Ukraine from every source. Those sources could probably sustain the war, if the will to do so exists.
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May 25, 2023 14:31
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Boris Galerkin posted:To be honest this sounds more like a feature for military recruiting than a bug. I imagine that the people who believe this stuff at face value lack critical thinking skills and isn’t that who you want for enlisted? You are thinking of cops, not soldiers. Even in the military, the dumbest motherfuckers you have get assigned to be MPs.
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May 25, 2023 14:48
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Storkrasch posted:This was the original comment for context: So still lots of time for a ramp up of military production to happen, not to mention that obviously a lot of stuff will have happened in the war until then, considering that the current phase of the war is only 15 months old.
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May 25, 2023 14:50
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DTurtle posted:I'm pretty sure you meant this, but to make it 100% clear: If Trump or Desantis cut off all aid to Ukraine as their first act as president, that won't happen 12 months from now, but 20 months from now. Yeah, in 12 months the EU is meant to be reaching their 155mm shell production target. If Trump becomes president before then, I fear we've got bigger problems.
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May 25, 2023 14:52
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1661751821935976449 It appears that one of the drone ships got through. There's tracer rounds coming from the ship and hits in the water you can see in the video. Russia released a video too showing one blowing up (authenticity disputed, of course) after getting hit.
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May 25, 2023 16:20
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1661751821935976449 Also the explosion in the Russian footage is huge, so if this one did detonate where the footage ends it will have done serious damage.
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May 25, 2023 16:23
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1661751821935976449 Ukraine read this thread yesterday and wanted to prove a point.
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May 25, 2023 16:30
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Yeah if that thing detonated at the range it was at when the footage cut, the ship in question is gonna have some pretty serious damage. The key part about these drones is that they're (relatively) cheap. This is something they can produce domestically during the war and it still forces the Russian military to be more conservative with their ships and devote more forces to harbor defense.
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May 25, 2023 16:40
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Yeah, they're basically cruise torpedoes.
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May 25, 2023 16:43
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Storkrasch posted:Current expenditures are based on existing stocks, both on the Ukrainian and Russian side, so they are likely to come down once supply is limited by production. I agree that a hypothetically isolationist president being elected in 2024 is less of a danger to Ukraine’s ability to prosecute the war than the OP you quoted. However - “you can’t shoot as much as you want by 50-70% because we can’t produce enough shells” is not exactly fulfilling Ukraine’s military needs.
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May 25, 2023 18:01
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Interesting article about the raids from an anonymous source, so treat it accordingly. https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/05/24/raid-on-russias-belgorod-region-a-first-person-account-en quote:A Russian national who took part in the raid on Russia’s Belgorod region from the side of Ukraine on 22 May has contacted Novaya-Europe to share his account of what happened. He spoke on the condition of anonymity and asked us not to name the unit that he serves in. Here’s his story. So this gives evidence against the "Russians used captured vehicles to stage photos" idea that people had yesterday. It also appears that Russian forces prioritized defending the local government buildings instead of the local villages. The article has more in it, but this is most of the info, a lot of bravado otherwise.
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May 25, 2023 18:06
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You can't just grab a tactical nuke and shove it in your humvee.
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May 25, 2023 18:14
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I agree that a hypothetically isolationist president being elected in 2024 is less of a danger to Ukraine’s ability to prosecute the war than the OP you quoted. I'd love it if they made stronger commitments to produce more. Even if it costs a few billion, it's worth it to not have Putin in Lviv sending little green men everywhere. Ramping up takes time, and I'd imagine the supply chain work that is needed is quite difficult. There are needs and wants, though. What they're currently spending means that Russia can't make any real progress, and Ukraine has been able to husband its supplies so that they have enough for a counteroffensive. They clearly don't need more to credibly defend their territory. More would be great for reducing casualties and risk, and I'm all for providing more. I think reducing supply means Ukraine has to take more risk and more casualties to get the same outcome, but the outcome might not necessarily change dramatically. It's also possible it does change the outcome completely, it's hard to get a clear view of this, for me at least 
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May 25, 2023 18:20
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I agree that a hypothetically isolationist president being elected in 2024 is less of a danger to Ukraine’s ability to prosecute the war than the OP you quoted. In this dumbass hypothetical Europe would probably still be able to buy shells from the US and send it to Ukraine, so if they wanted to they could keep things going almost the same as before at a higher cost since production is the limiting factor not cash. It's interesting to me that the border raids is basically equivalent to a smash and grab with no real intent to hold ground. I guess I am skeptical of what effects such raids could have since I thought there have been similar border skirmishes the whole time? Does anything change if its just a bigger border skirmish?
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May 25, 2023 18:20
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Cpt_Obvious posted:You can't just grab a tactical nuke and shove it in your humvee. Well not with that attitude you can't.
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May 25, 2023 18:22
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ummel posted:So this gives evidence against the "Russians used captured vehicles to stage photos" idea that people had yesterday. That wasn't meant to be serious, was it? I was sure that tweet thread was a send up of last year's "I used to be a fry cook. In this thread I explain why Russia will lose the war [1/77]" OSINT trend.
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May 25, 2023 18:26
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WarpedLichen posted:It's interesting to me that the border raids is basically equivalent to a smash and grab with no real intent to hold ground. I guess I am skeptical of what effects such raids could have since I thought there have been similar border skirmishes the whole time? Does anything change if its just a bigger border skirmish? I guess it primarily forces Russian troops to move away from places where they're actually going to be useful in a counteroffensive. Apparently, Ukraine has been firing at those newly arrived troops with artillery from across the border, since the Russians haven't had time to set up proper entrenchments yet. It's also just yet another problem for the Russian state to deal with.
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May 25, 2023 18:28
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Cpt_Obvious posted:You can't just grab a tactical nuke and shove it in your humvee. IIRC, the tactical nuclear weapons at Belgorod-22 were nuclear 203mm artillery and 240mm mortar shells for the 2S7 SP howitzer and 2S4 SP mortar. They'd be a two-three person lift since they weigh over 100kg, but you could throw them in the back of a truck like the Humvee.
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May 25, 2023 18:35
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Some more news from today and yesterday: An advisor of Zelensky has claimed the counter-offensive has already started, several days ago. From the same link, further down: EU suspends tariffs on imports from Ukraine, until mid-2024 for now. A little extra, to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat. Allegedly, the fighting in Bakhmut is winding down, despite Ukraine being in control of the south-western city border. Also, Germany has started contemplating joining the alliance for training Ukrainian jet pilots. (Which, if this goes like Germany and tanks, they'll probably already be starting the training program right now.  )And finally, something more social: Zeit Online lead an interview with someone living in Mariupol, over a secured messenger service. Some bits: -Despite massive Russian propaganda and attempts at rebuilding the city using workers from Usbekistan and Tadschikistan, the atmosphere is dire: While some people are on the Russian side, most of the people are living in what the Mariupol-citizen described as "hatred". -Some life has come back into the city, thanks to people either returning from abroad after the surrender, or from the Donbass, as the fighting there isn't looking like it's going to stop anytime soon. -Her husband got work in one of the Russian constructions projects, but she still loving hates Russians -There is some passive resistance, but active resistance is hard, since approx. 90% of the city's residential areas are still destroyed. -Russia has started giving people a stipend to live on, but thanks to high prices it's not enough -The new apartment blocks being built by Russia are often empty, as many of the citizens stay away, either due to a lack of money for even the most basic things like a bed, or because they're still hoping the city gets liberated and don't want to be seen living in a "Russian" apartment -Outside of Russian state projects, the city's economy is basically dead: No jobs, no hope. Cynically, Russia wants to make Mariupol a tourist city, since there's no industry anymore after Russia destroyed it I don't want to summarize the entire article, but it was a fascinating read. Sadly, you'll need a translation tool, as all these sources are in German. Libluini fucked around with this message at 19:09 on May 25, 2023 |
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May 25, 2023 19:06
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Ynglaur posted:Yeah, they're basically cruise torpedoes. Dumb question but its been known for over 100 years now that torpedoes work best underwater where they're harder to shoot at and the damage will be more catastrophic. Why do these travel and then explode on surface?
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May 25, 2023 19:23
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saratoga posted:Dumb question but its been known for over 100 years now that torpedoes work best underwater where they're harder to shoot at and the damage will be more catastrophic. Why do these travel and then explode on surface? Because they are radio controlled and it's effectively impossible to make a radio controlled submerged torpedo
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May 25, 2023 19:25
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saratoga posted:Dumb question but its been known for over 100 years now that torpedoes work best underwater where they're harder to shoot at and the damage will be more catastrophic. Why do these travel and then explode on surface? Because the drone boats are directly controlled by an operator elsewhere, and it's probably much harder to get a signal when the drone is submerged?
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May 25, 2023 19:27
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Libluini posted:Tadschikistan Germany wtf is this spelling on a broader note im sad we probably won't get Родные 2 since Russia has maybe realized at this point that Mansky isn't actually a pro-regime filmmaker.
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May 25, 2023 19:33
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saratoga posted:Dumb question but its been known for over 100 years now that torpedoes work best underwater where they're harder to shoot at and the damage will be more catastrophic. Why do these travel and then explode on surface? I thought that the best place to hit was right at the waterline as it allows air to escape faster so water rushes in more quickly.
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May 25, 2023 19:34
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Djarum posted:I thought that the best place to hit was right at the waterline as it allows air to escape faster so water rushes in more quickly. A torpedo exploding underneath the keel of a ship creates a huge air pocket that collapses and tends to break the ship in half, it's more effective than hitting the side of a ship. I think the remote drone boats are built that way because as mentioned radio control and it's easier/cheaper to manufacture.
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May 25, 2023 19:36
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steinrokkan posted:Because they are radio controlled and it's effectively impossible to make a radio controlled submerged torpedo Plus the controller needs video feedback, so there needs to be a camera above water which puts another restriction on the design. Meanwhile having some kind of periscope sticking from water would destabilise it in windy conditions. My theory is that the design also gives it a greater range/speed because it doesn't have to plough deep in the water.
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May 25, 2023 19:36
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steinrokkan posted:Because they are radio controlled and it's effectively impossible to make a radio controlled submerged torpedo Maybe I'm mistaken but I thought these are actual US-made devices, not improvised like aerial drones? Surely a US defense contractor could figure out how to stick up an antenna out of the water. Or even better, stick up an antenna until you get close (or submerge only during the attack), retract it, and then home in via sonar without guidance.
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May 25, 2023 19:36
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Cpt_Obvious posted:You can't just grab a tactical nuke and shove it in your humvee. I mean you could, but in the current climate it seems like a spectacularly bad idea.
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May 25, 2023 19:36
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Djarum posted:I thought that the best place to hit was right at the waterline as it allows air to escape faster so water rushes in more quickly. I take it then that drone boats are what you use when you can't afford or don't have low-flying anti-ship missiles and you can't get anything close enough to launch a torpedo?
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May 25, 2023 19:36
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Djarum posted:I thought that the best place to hit was right at the waterline as it allows air to escape faster so water rushes in more quickly. The best way to "hit" is to detonate just underneath the centerline so the cavity of the explosion creates a localized difference in flotation, leading to twisting forced that can literally break the ship in half. E:fb saratoga posted:Maybe I'm mistaken but I thought these are actual US-made devices, not improvised like aerial drones? Surely a US defense contractor could figure out how to stick up an antenna out of the water. Or even better, stick up an antenna until you get close (or submerge only during the attack), retract it, and then home in via sonar without guidance. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 19:39 on May 25, 2023 |
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May 25, 2023 19:37
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steinrokkan posted:The best way to "hit" is to detonate just underneath the centerline so the cavity of the explosion creates a localized difference in flotation, leading to twisting forced that can literally break the ship in half. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vaImLvZbPw
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May 25, 2023 19:43
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Seems like the ship hit by the drone boat is difficult to find at the moment https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1661793285185187842 I guess more likely being hidden to avoid people seeing the damage rather than sunk, but still lends credibility to the theory it was damaged. Not sure about how the pilot of the downed plane relates to the ship, are they implying it was out looking for him when it was hit? *edit* dunno why that's not embedding atm, it's just a translation of a post talking about the boat being missing
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May 25, 2023 19:43
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steinrokkan posted:I think they are improvised? At least I'm pretty sure the naval drones that tried to infiltrate Sevastopol were, and these I assume are the same? quote:As part of its additional $800 million military aid package the US announced last week, the Department of Defense said it will be providing Ukraine with drone boats – better known as uncrewed surface vessels (USV) – for use against attacking Russian Navy craft in the Black Sea. I assumed these were those weapons, although it would make more sense if these are improvised given the limitations.
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May 25, 2023 19:44
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Pook Good Mook posted:I take it then that drone boats are what you use when you can't afford or don't have low-flying anti-ship missiles and you can't get anything close enough to launch a torpedo? Anti-shipping missiles are limited by sensor range - you need a radar contact or something before you start firing multi-million missiles to the horizon. If the enemy fleet stays at a safe range from your coast then coastal missile batteries can't touch them. A drone you can just send out and look for targets even in their home harbour.
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May 25, 2023 19:45
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| # ? Jun 1, 2024 19:03 |
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Do we have any other evidence that the nukes were moved from Belgorod besides Ukraine saying they were? Wouldn't the U.S. notice them being removed? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 25, 2023 19:48
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