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The closest margin on the GOP side has been 13 points, as of two months ago, and here's the historic trajectory: eta: Speaking of town halls, I read that CNN has scheduled them for Haley & Pence now too.
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May 27, 2023 20:46
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I can’t believe Kennedy has a 20% approval rating. There are more antivax democrats than I thought.
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May 27, 2023 20:48
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Wait, John Sununu is still alive and running for president? EDIT: Oh, it’s a George Bush situation.
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May 27, 2023 20:50
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I AM GRANDO posted:I can’t believe Kennedy has a 20% approval rating. There are more antivax democrats than I thought. It's more the family name & not-Biden than his anti-vax stance, according to a new CNN poll: quote:Biden’s weak spots in the race for the nomination are concentrated among independents who lean Democratic (40% back Biden for the nod, compared with 67% among self-identified Democrats) and younger voters (49% of those younger than 45 say they back Biden compared with 68% among those age 45 or older). https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/25/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-2024/index.html
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May 27, 2023 20:51
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Zwabu posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ffttTfH4Pg&t=81s Sure, but then you have to concede that Biden actually won the election, which he can't really do given the stuff he's said in the past. It's hard to attack someone for losing when your official position is He Won, Actually.
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May 27, 2023 20:53
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My experience with the New York City subway is such: In ~18 months of using the DC metro, there was no poop. The second time I used the New York City subway, there was poop.
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May 27, 2023 20:54
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:A conviction has not happened. There has only been a finding of civil liability. A conviction wouldn't matter either. He would just appeal the decision and be granted his freedom during the appeal process, during which he would continue to run for president and openly let everyone know he intended to pardon himself. And for all of that he would lose zero support among his fascist supporters (Republicans).
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May 27, 2023 20:54
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I AM GRANDO posted:I can’t believe Kennedy has a 20% approval rating. There are more antivax democrats than I thought. I doubt most of the people saying they'd vote for Kennedy (or Williamson) are aware of the alt med fraud angle, I'm pretty sure the average Democratic voter thinks Biden is unopposed. Which is correct, for all practical purposes.
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May 27, 2023 20:55
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James Garfield posted:I doubt most of the people saying they'd vote for Kennedy (or Williamson) are aware of the alt med fraud angle, I'm pretty sure the average Democratic voter thinks Biden is unopposed. Which is correct, for all practical purposes. Also a weird thing happens with polls that some people will just kinda say they approve of someone without knowing because they don't want to sound like they don't know someone. Or approve someone because they are against someone else.
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May 27, 2023 21:10
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Acebuckeye13 posted:My experience with the New York City subway is such: But was your experience enriched by the lack of poop? That is the real question.
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May 27, 2023 21:18
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Mooseontheloose posted:Also a weird thing happens with polls that some people will just kinda say they approve of someone without knowing because they don't want to sound like they don't know someone. Or approve someone because they are against someone else. The CNN poll asked voters' intentions for the primaries next year, not approval:  The poll included separate questions about who voters would "consider" voting for in the primary, as the excerpt I posted stated: quote:Majorities of all Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say they would at least consider backing either Kennedy (64% support him or would consider him) or Williamson (53% back her or would consider her)[....] Biden supporters are more locked in than supporters of the other candidates: quote:Biden’s primary supporters are largely locked in: 58% say they would definitely support him and 42% say that they could change their minds. In contrast, those backing other candidates are far from committed, with just 19% in that group saying they definitely will support their first-choice candidate and 81% saying that they could change their minds. eta: And yes: the subset samples were on the smallish side.
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May 27, 2023 21:19
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Willa Rogers posted:The only possible way for DeSantis to win the nomination is if Trump dies, which is about as likely as Biden dying imo. It's more likely that somebody who hasn't expressed the slightest interest in running, like Bernie or AOC, won the Dem nomination, than RFK. It would be almost impossible to conceive of - but still more likely than RFK winning by orders of magnitude. People who are answering "RFK" in these polls (besides the <5% of weirdos who actually can tolerate his bullshit) have no idea who he is and are saying "hey, Kennedy!" or "not Biden."
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May 27, 2023 21:28
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The charitable view is that polling can change dramatically during primaries, but that doesnt usually happen with an incumbent. The uncharitable view is that the media is wired for Republicans and have been faithfully writing up DeSantis stories for literally years with horse-race articles about how he's fueling his national ambitions by killing off as many old people as he can. 
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May 27, 2023 21:29
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I think there's absolutely something to the argument that DeSantis's supposed juggernaut status was 100% a media creation, I just think at this point the narrative is successfully entrenched enough that he has at least a theoretical shot.
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May 27, 2023 21:30
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Mellow Seas posted:Not really. (The "only possible way" thing, not the "likelihood of dying" thing.) There are ways for the campaign to go that could plausibly lead to DeSantis being the nominee without Trump dying - basically, if you had a replay of 2016, but after the early states your Scotts, Haleys, Christies etc all dropped out, instead of duking it out, and, y'know, establishment-voltroned Trump out of the primary. They are all selfish bastards, and going for Trump and missing would end their careers. So it's unlikely, but it's vastly more likely than RFK winning the Dem primary. Trump is the current choice of over 50 percent of GOP voters using the aggregators. He's only solidified that choice over the last year. I just don't see a possible route for DeSantis given the trends, which I'll post again:  I don't see RFK Jr. winning under any scenario (especially given what happened to other candidates in 2016/2020), but I also don't see Trump losing under any scenario. eta: Here's the 2020 Dem spread for comparison purposes: 
Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 21:42 on May 27, 2023 |
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May 27, 2023 21:39
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I guess I don't really disagree that only he can win, without some kind of extraordinary intervention, of which death is the most plausible. But I don't really know what the media is supposed to do but cover the other candidates anyway, otherwise they would just be coronating him themselves. (More than usual.) Not covering RFK makes sense - a primary where the incumbent is running isn't going to get coverage without a serious contender. But an open primary is a different story. This is the most incumbent-unincumbent in the last hundred plus years so it's a weird situation.
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May 27, 2023 21:52
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Willa Rogers posted:The only possible way for DeSantis to win the nomination is if Trump dies, which is about as likely as Biden dying imo. I'd argue that though if Trump gets hit by a bus, DeSantis has a legit shot, the same is not true of RFK Jr. because he's a wackadoo lunatic and there's tons of other centrist dems who'd then suddenly jump in and near-instantly eclipse him (Harris and Buttigieg being the two most likely off the top of my head). Would DeSantis have to compete with Scott and Halley and the other GOP no-hopers? Sure, but unlike RFK Jr. he could plausibly carry it off.
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May 27, 2023 22:05
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I'd argue that though if Trump gets hit by a bus, DeSantis has a legit shot, the same is not true of RFK Jr. because he's a wackadoo lunatic and there's tons of other centrist dems who'd then suddenly jump in and near-instantly eclipse him (Harris and Buttigieg being the two most likely off the top of my head). Would DeSantis have to compete with Scott and Halley and the other GOP no-hopers? Sure, but unlike RFK Jr. he could plausibly carry it off. Yeah, that's just it. DeSantis has a "Trump drops dead" victory condition and RFK Jr. does not.
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May 27, 2023 22:12
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I’m also pretty shocked at the twenty percent for RFK Jr. and have to assume the majority of those are unfamiliar with the crazy anti vax stuff and are responding only to the familiar name.
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May 27, 2023 22:14
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Killer robot posted:Yeah, that's just it. DeSantis has a "Trump drops dead" victory condition and RFK Jr. does not. Yeah. If Trump dropped dead I do think DeSantis would in fact probably be the nominee despite everything. If the same happened to Biden then Newsom or Sherrod Brown or any number of credible others would jump in and steamroll RFK Jr.
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May 27, 2023 22:18
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Mellow Seas posted:I guess I don't really disagree that only he can win, without some kind of extraordinary intervention, of which death is the most plausible. But I don't really know what the media is supposed to do but cover the other candidates anyway, otherwise they would just be coronating him themselves. (More than usual.) Not covering RFK makes sense - a primary where the incumbent is running isn't going to get coverage without a serious contender. But an open primary is a different story. This is the most incumbent-unincumbent in the last hundred plus years so it's a weird situation. I mean Trump is a heavy favorite but there are plenty of serious opponents, and if Trump got trampled by rhinos tomorrow Desantis would be the favorite out of those. Every scenario in which Biden is not the 2024 nominee has other Democrats announce campaigns, Williamson and RFK Jr have an actually 0 probability of being the nominee. It's like comparing Ted Cruz to the guy who got 42% against Obama in Arkansas because they both finished in second place.
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May 27, 2023 22:21
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I mean I think both primaries have a fairly similar throughline. Unpopular favorites with a laundry list of faults and a chunk of the base that is fairly desperate for an alternative. Just on the R side it's more the moneymen types that want that, so you have the media push Ron's gotten, all while his attempted push for the presidency has just made him nearly as toxic as Trump, while on the D side Biden's just such an underwhelming, sad old man that the chunk of the base that is just desperate for an alternative, and while nobody of any importance is going to run, so you get oh a Kenney? 20% result. It'll evaporate to low single digits by anyone who actually learns anything about him and most of the rest of the anybody but Biden crowd will just stay home for the primary I'd imagine.
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May 27, 2023 22:25
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James Garfield posted:I mean Trump is a heavy favorite but there are plenty of serious opponents, and if Trump got trampled by rhinos tomorrow Desantis would be the favorite out of those. Every scenario in which Biden is not the 2024 nominee has other Democrats announce campaigns, Williamson and RFK Jr have an actually 0 probability of being the nominee. It's like comparing Ted Cruz to the guy who got 42% against Obama in Arkansas because they both finished in second place. Yeah this is why the twenty percent number for RFK Jr is so funny and obviously meaningless. Similar polling number but completely different situation. The other big factor in the GOP race is that the front runner is actually a former president, something we’ve not had since Nixon almost eighty years ago. If no one had been president then it would be a lot more possible for Trump’s polling to collapse in certain situations. But Trump supporters have now been with him not only through campaign stuff like Access Hollywood but also his shittastic presidency AND January 6. Very little would peel away that support. The 2022 midterms were about the only thing that caused Trump to lose support. If DeSantis is going to actually attach Trump for losing and promoting a bunch of losers he’s going to have to make that argument explicitly, this weak sauce “culture of losing” won’t do.
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May 27, 2023 22:33
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Acebuckeye13 posted:My experience with the New York City subway is such: One time I was waiting for the mbta red line and two police officers were very gently but insistently requesting a woman either accept medical intervention or just leave the station because she had done a rather much of the poo all over herself and were insisting that, while they were very sorry, they had to insist she couldn't stay on the public subway platform while being a biohazard
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May 27, 2023 22:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:DeSantis is really speedrunning his campaign scandals. He has managed to do the two things that can actually get you in trouble with campaign finance laws: directly coordinate with your SuperPAC and use your state employees to run your campaign and fundraise for you. As it turns out, repeatedly trouncing the ruined Democratic Party operation in Florida wasn't the work of a political mastermind. He may not even get the nomination if Trump dies or goes to prison.
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May 27, 2023 22:45
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Zwabu posted:The 2022 midterms were about the only thing that caused Trump to lose support. If DeSantis is going to actually attach Trump for losing and promoting a bunch of losers he’s going to have to make that argument explicitly, this weak sauce “culture of losing” won’t do. And Trump's lead against DeSantis now is greater than it was before the 2022 midterms.
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May 27, 2023 22:50
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Ken Paxton, the shitheaded Texas Attorney General who's wormed his way into the national spotlight so much that I know of him more than my own state's, has been impeached and suspended. The vote was 121-23quote:Many of the articles of impeachment focused on allegations that Paxton had repeatedly abused his powers of office to help a political donor and friend, Austin real estate developer Nate Paul. Like how bad a person do you gotta be to be impeached in Texas as a Republican.
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May 28, 2023 00:03
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Willa Rogers posted:But it's still funny to see how much more DeSantis is discussed as a viable candidate compared to RFK Jr. Why? DeSantis has been re-elected as governor of the 3rd most populous state - one that very recently was considered purple. RFK Jr has no political experience and unlike Donald Trump hasn’t had a popular tv show whose entire point was convincing people that he’s a super competent businessman.
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May 28, 2023 00:13
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Tayter Swift posted:Ken Paxton, the shitheaded Texas Attorney General who's wormed his way into the national spotlight so much that I know of him more than my own state's, has been impeached and suspended. The vote was 121-23 It's probably easier there than in a more competitive state - it's not like he's gonna get replaced by a Democrat in Texas.
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May 28, 2023 00:30
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he should have been disbarred and impeached the moment he was indicted . . . . eight years ago.
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May 28, 2023 00:35
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Tayter Swift posted:Ken Paxton, the shitheaded Texas Attorney General who's wormed his way into the national spotlight so much that I know of him more than my own state's, has been impeached and suspended. The vote was 121-23 It still has to go to the Texas Senate, which is said to be more conservative than the Texas House. But he's impeached until the Senate does anything, meaning that if they break for recess without reinstating or sanctioning him, he will be out of a job until the next session. Which isn't until Jan. 14th, 2025. Or if there's a special session to reinstate him, but I'd imagine if they don't take action immediately, the Senate isn't going to do poo poo for a special session. Agents are GO! posted:It's probably easier there than in a more competitive state - it's not like he's gonna get replaced by a Democrat in Texas. My biggest hope is that getting de facto fired from his job is that it opens to him some consequences that require him to squeal on guys like Abbott to save his own neck. Like, I am certain that Texas has been cooking the election returns in some places like the border, especially after Uvalde. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 00:49 on May 28, 2023 |
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May 28, 2023 00:44
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I'd argue that though if Trump gets hit by a bus, DeSantis has a legit shot, the same is not true of RFK Jr. because he's a wackadoo lunatic and there's tons of other centrist dems who'd then suddenly jump in and near-instantly eclipse him (Harris and Buttigieg being the two most likely off the top of my head). Would DeSantis have to compete with Scott and Halley and the other GOP no-hopers? Sure, but unlike RFK Jr. he could plausibly carry it off. If this happened, could we vote for the bus? Willa Rogers posted:And Trump's lead against DeSantis now is greater than it was before the 2022 midterms. Yeah, more media exposure to the real Rob isn't going to help anything. I doubt we'll see the "anyone but trump" bumps in the primaries like we did in 2016, and with Rob being whatever's less threatening than a paper tiger, the republican nod is his. Probably even if he goes to jail. Hell, maybe especially then. Giving people "proof" for the persecution complex might make them vote even more aggressively.
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May 28, 2023 00:51
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Young Freud posted:My biggest hope is that getting de facto fired from his job is that it opens to him some consequences that require him to squeal on guys like Abbott to save his own neck. Like, I am certain that Texas has been cooking the election returns in some places like the border, especially after Uvalde. Fun as that would be I'd imagine the Texas Senate Republicans know that and would like to protect their own. Or are they all going Praetorian Guard on the state brass?
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May 28, 2023 01:13
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Tayter Swift posted:Fun as that would be I'd imagine the Texas Senate Republicans know that and would like to protect their own. Or are they all going Praetorian Guard on the state brass? Apparently, Paxton's wife is a state senator and she just discovered that he'd been cheating on her: one of the 20 impeachment charges is him pushing to get his mistress hired in the AG's office because he grew tired of driving to Dallas/FW from Austin.
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May 28, 2023 01:24
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Tayter Swift posted:Fun as that would be I'd imagine the Texas Senate Republicans know that and would like to protect their own. Or are they all going Praetorian Guard on the state brass? The fact that 82% of the House voted to impeach proves that nothing is outside the realm of possibility. It's going to come down to what Lt. Governor Dan Patrick feels is best for his future, and so far his poker game is strong.
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May 28, 2023 01:28
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Edward Mass posted:The fact that 82% of the House voted to impeach proves that nothing is outside the realm of possibility. It's going to come down to what Lt. Governor Dan Patrick feels is best for his future, and so far his poker game is strong. Well, whatever they do, they got until Monday to decide.
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May 28, 2023 01:33
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Tayter Swift posted:Fun as that would be I'd imagine the Texas Senate Republicans know that and would like to protect their own. Or are they all going Praetorian Guard on the state brass? people much more obsessed with the texas legislature than i am seem to think it's essentially a factional struggle that paxton, uh, wildly misjudged Young Freud posted:Apparently, Paxton's wife is a state senator and she just discovered that he'd been cheating on her: one of the 20 impeachment charges is him pushing to get his mistress hired in the AG's office because he grew tired of driving to Dallas/FW from Austin. yeah this is maybe the most likely thing i've heard as a possible instigating factor for the total collapse of Paxton's legislative support
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May 28, 2023 01:37
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Looks like a deal has been tentatively struck. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1662615601200734209 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/us/politics/debt-limit-deal.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare quote:
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May 28, 2023 01:41
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It’s still really, really dumb that they are going to cave to this hostage taking and also allow it to continue
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May 28, 2023 01:43
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FlamingLiberal posted:It’s still really, really dumb that they are going to cave to this hostage taking and also allow it to continue “Cave”? Dems didn’t cave. They did exactly what libs elected them to do: act like polite republicans.
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May 28, 2023 01:59
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