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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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Captain Splendid
Jan 7, 2009

Qu'en pense Caffarelli?

freelop posted:

Thinking back to those Russian armoured vehicles with the naval guns welded on top

Clear proof the dam was planned!

They were monitoring the ground.

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Shaman Tank Spec
Dec 26, 2003

*blep*



CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

The bouncing bomb was a special designed bomb that required a very exact attack profile and also placement in the depths of the water storage to work - Too far away did nothing. Just throwing a missile or hurling a handful of artillery will not work. One of the bouncing bombs exploded at the base of a dam and didnt even scratch it

Well, they MIGHT work, and Wallis' original plan was to drop a 10 ton "earthquake bomb" on the dams from a great height and blast them apart with sheer explosive force, but turns out it was almost impossible to hit a dam with World War II era bombs, because they were not guided and did not have anything close to the accuracy needed to hit what is a small slice when viewed from above. The allies initially considered using torpedoes to attack the Möhne and Edersee dams, but that wasn't feasible because the nazis had foreseen the possibility and installed torpedo nets in the rivers leading up to the dams. If these nets hadn't existed, the allies calculated that torpedo hits could breach the dams, but I don't remember off hand if that was based on just one hit or multiple hits.

The bouncing bombs bypassed these protections, and additionally because they had a strong backspin applied to them prior to being dropped from the Lancasters, once they hit the dam, they continued spinning which kept the bombs kind of rolling down the inside surface of the dam causing them to detonate right against the surface, multiplying their explosive force.

The whole Operation Chastise was extremely fascinating, and I wholeheartedly recommend Max Hastings' book "Chastise: The Dambusters Story".

E: the aftermath of the dams getting blown up is depressing reading because a bunch of people died in the floods, and many of them were prisoners of war or slaves. And because the allies didn't follow up, the nazis were able to repair the damaged dams fairly quickly so the whole operation was more of a PR stunt than an actual war-winning effort.

Shaman Tank Spec fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Jun 8, 2023

biglads
Feb 21, 2007

I could've gone to Blatherwycke



Nothing can dam the flow of poo poo from Vova.

Roblo
Dec 10, 2007

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Douche Wolf 89 posted:

uhhh sure but i'm saying "Dams are beefy but they're not designed to counter munitions" based off wiki and i guess that ep of the simpsons with niles is dumb. they are now and have been ever since someone paying for one to last longer than a war thought "what if they drag a cannon over there?" it's vital infrastructure an enemy would definitely target, not a rinky dink money laundering operation lol
My knowledge of dams comes from the fact I'm a civil engineer who specialises in flood defence. Not specifically a dam engineer but I work with them. The wiki comment was purely about storm shadow and its ability to penetrate armoured targets. Unsurprisingly there doesn't appear to be much info out there about how much reinforced concrete it can penetrate. [Edit: apparently up to 5 meters of concrete, not bad]

Either way, the discussion is redundant, it's pretty obvious it's down to Russia, the original question was purely hypothetical so chill out. I hope they do find out how it failed though, a as we need to know who to blame for the war crime trial, and b because if it failed due to negligence there is some learning to come from that.

Roblo fucked around with this message at 09:09 on Jun 8, 2023

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1666705701656305665
The smooker paid another visit to Luhansk today. Since the hits were recorded, cellphone connectivity is gone.

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy

HonorableTB posted:

I was in model United Nations in college as the head position paper writer for the NATO committee

lol

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
This is from yesterday but has before/after satellite shots of the flooded areas: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/kakhovka-dam-flooding-ukraine-before-and-after-satellite-images-reservoir-kherson-oblast

and some dog rescues from the affected areas

https://i.imgur.com/ChK0tvC.mp4

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1666718368462774275
:dumb:

Roblo
Dec 10, 2007

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

mobby_6kl posted:

This is from yesterday but has before/after satellite shots of the flooded areas: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/kakhovka-dam-flooding-ukraine-before-and-after-satellite-images-reservoir-kherson-oblast

and some dog rescues from the affected areas

https://i.imgur.com/ChK0tvC.mp4

Someone was quoted on the guardian as saying 68% of the flooded areas are on the Russian side. Hell of an own goal - wonder how many conscripts they lost.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Roblo posted:

Someone was quoted on the guardian as saying 68% of the flooded areas are on the Russian side. Hell of an own goal - wonder how many conscripts they lost.

According to UA general staff, they sustained heavy casualties in wounded and drowned mobiks in the flooded area and lost all or almost all the equipment, ammo, armor, and heavy weapons in the field depots along the defense line.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

zone posted:

According to UA general staff, they sustained heavy casualties in wounded and drowned mobiks in the flooded area and lost all or almost all the equipment, ammo, armor, and heavy weapons in the field depots along the defense line.

Strangely no reduction in the overall combat effectiveness of the Russian army.

That being said, I'm not sure I buy the stories of Russian soldiers drowning to death, since that would imply mass death among civilians in the same area as well

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

zone posted:

According to UA general staff, they sustained heavy casualties in wounded and drowned mobiks in the flooded area and lost all or almost all the equipment, ammo, armor, and heavy weapons in the field depots along the defense line.

UA general staff insists it has destroyed invasion force twice over already, they are not reliable for information tbh

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

fatherboxx posted:

UA general staff insists it has destroyed invasion force twice over already, they are not reliable for information tbh

You're confusing them with the russian MoD

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

mobby_6kl posted:

You're confusing them with the russian MoD

Claiming that they have already killed 200000+ russian soldiers (and thus around 500-600k wounded) is on the level with Russian MoD fantasies.
At least they dont invent vehicle destruction out of nothing, granted.

Roblo
Dec 10, 2007

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

steinrokkan posted:

Strangely no reduction in the overall combat effectiveness of the Russian army.

That being said, I'm not sure I buy the stories of Russian soldiers drowning to death, since that would imply mass death among civilians in the same area as well

There may well be mass death, though. Casualty reports tend to be quite slow for flooding - people get found drowned in lofts etc and often aren't found until waters have reversed. And that's in peace time, let alone a warzone where apparently the Russians have been shooting at rescuers. It's horrible. Bear in mind it was still rising up until yesterday evening, I think? (Might still be, not got any good info on that)

I can imagine lots of the mobiks were in the low lying land near the river too so that just puts them more at risk.

CommissarMega
Nov 18, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER

zone posted:

Since the hits were recorded, cellphone connectivity is gone.

Welp, there goes Russia's comms network.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

steinrokkan posted:

Strangely no reduction in the overall combat effectiveness of the Russian army.

That being said, I'm not sure I buy the stories of Russian soldiers drowning to death, since that would imply mass death among civilians in the same area as well

Depends on where the fortifications were relative to civilian settlements. It's fairly plausible Russia had troops stationed near the banks to prevent Ukraine from sneaking troops over the Dnipro to raid the Russian rear. Those guys probably had the easiest time of all frontline troops, until their trenches and pillboxes started flooding.



The extent of civilian casualties and property damage will probably remain unknown until Ukraine liberates Kherson oblast, because they will be heavily concentrated on the Russian-controlled east side of the river. The western bank rises fairly steeply out of the river while the eastern bank is a low-lying floodplain.

Roblo
Dec 10, 2007

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Depends on where the fortifications were relative to civilian settlements. It's fairly plausible Russia had troops stationed near the banks to prevent Ukraine from sneaking troops over the Dnipro to raid the Russian rear. Those guys probably had the easiest time of all frontline troops, until their trenches and pillboxes started flooding.



The extent of civilian casualties and property damage will probably remain unknown until Ukraine liberates Kherson oblast, because they will be heavily concentrated on the Russian-controlled east side of the river. The western bank rises fairly steeply out of the river while the eastern bank is a low-lying floodplain.

It's stuff like this that makes me question whether it was intentional. It seems like such an own goal for Russia. Even if you block the area downstream from assaults (while destroying your carefully prepared fortifications) you've potentially opened up a much larger area upstream to easier attacks.

I know Russia is incompetent but this seems next level.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Deteriorata posted:

No NATO countries are going to put troops in Ukraine while the war is still going on.

I think he is talking about post-war NATO status. If NATO won't admit Ukraine, then some countries may act.

As others have said, this is far off speculation, but I would be quite concerned if this happened.

This kind of half-way house poo poo, signals divisions in NATO that Russia could exploit. Multiple commentators (Vexler and others) have suggested that Putin wants to try to stabilise the current situation, loosen Russia's isolation, re-arm, and mobilise society under a more totalitarian revanchist regime (as opposed to current authoritarianism and indifferent population). He very likely wants to have another go in the late 2020s, after Western support to Ukraine and its current unity has likely further eroded (with more Orbans and populists around). He would very much like to try and split NATO, and 'reveal Article 5 to be the bluff he believes it to be'.

This kind of split in NATO, where willing countries put tripwire forces into Ukraine, creates ambiguity that could be exploited. It would be unclear whether countries like Germany, France, or the US (under a potential Republican Presidency) would consider troops from NATO countries in Ukraine to be 'Article 5 protected'. Putin would love to create a situation that splits the alliance - where the Baltics or other peripheral states come under attack, and France, Germany and others hem and haw, leading to splits.

Now whether this actually happens? Probably not - it all depends on Russia being able to stabilise the current war and not imploding, and then managing to rearm whilst the West dithers and divides itself.

But I really wish this halfway house poo poo would stop - just get Ukraine the proper security guarantees it needs. Ideally full NATO membership.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1666625469150625792?s=20

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...



even posters in Russia can't stand each other

SilvergunSuperman
Aug 7, 2010

Horsebanger posted:

If Putin dressed as M. Bison I'd take him far more seriously.

Hell, :same:

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
Bison dollars are worth more than the rouble even without the queen

https://twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1666730670633230336?s=20

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Wait... why would Wagner capture a Russian officer? What's going on?

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Randarkman posted:

Wait... why would Wagner capture a Russian officer? What's going on?

They blamed him for drunkenly ordering artillery strikes to Wagner positions, or leaking their positions to Ukrainian army.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Randarkman posted:

Wait... why would Wagner capture a Russian officer? What's going on?

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1665462469119148033?s=20

it's just an extension of their army hazing, sexual assault included

but now with branch infighting

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Randarkman posted:

Wait... why would Wagner capture a Russian officer? What's going on?

A series of slow moving coups and the end result of mass cronyism and warlords under Poopin

Turns out running your country like the Godfather with an intense love of all things hyper toxic masculine does not create a stable government/ society/ military

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 11:49 on Jun 8, 2023

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Think about how unified the Russian military and security apparatus is, now imagine how awesome its gonna be if Putin suddenly died.

chadbear
Jan 15, 2020

NATO troops in Ukraine would not be covered under Article 5. Check Article 6.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=en

quote:


For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

Disco Pope
Dec 6, 2004

Top Class!

Tigey posted:

As others have said, this is far off speculation, but I would be quite concerned if this happened.

This kind of half-way house poo poo, signals divisions in NATO that Russia could exploit. Multiple commentators (Vexler and others) have suggested that Putin wants to try to stabilise the current situation, loosen Russia's isolation, re-arm, and mobilise society under a more totalitarian revanchist regime (as opposed to current authoritarianism and indifferent population). He very likely wants to have another go in the late 2020s, after Western support to Ukraine and its current unity has likely further eroded (with more Orbans and populists around). He would very much like to try and split NATO, and 'reveal Article 5 to be the bluff he believes it to be'.

This kind of split in NATO, where willing countries put tripwire forces into Ukraine, creates ambiguity that could be exploited. It would be unclear whether countries like Germany, France, or the US (under a potential Republican Presidency) would consider troops from NATO countries in Ukraine to be 'Article 5 protected'. Putin would love to create a situation that splits the alliance - where the Baltics or other peripheral states come under attack, and France, Germany and others hem and haw, leading to splits.

Now whether this actually happens? Probably not - it all depends on Russia being able to stabilise the current war and not imploding, and then managing to rearm whilst the West dithers and divides itself.

But I really wish this halfway house poo poo would stop - just get Ukraine the proper security guarantees it needs. Ideally full NATO membership.

I think that's what this rhetoric is about - might the scenario described with a fractured NATO unfold? Its not impossible, even if its unlikely, which is why its being stressed that they should get their poo poo together in July.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
Контрнаступ enjoyers are going to have a good time

https://twitter.com/GraniTweet/status/1666721050439081985

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
lmao even the russian media is saying that the dam can't be blown up via shelling and that it requires explosives.

Gee, I wonder who has access to the dam..

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

The dam was blown up at 6:00 AM, on the 6th day, of the , 6th month.

Holy poo poo. No I'm not making that up.

Hail gay satan

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Tai posted:

lmao even the russian media is saying that the dam can't be blown up via shelling and that it requires explosives.

Gee, I wonder who has access to the dam..

really weird how they don't even have a lovely Loose Change clip of a nato dick rocket slamming into the dam they controlled

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

mobby_6kl posted:

You're confusing them with the russian MoD

He said twice over, not twenty times over.

Scrungus
Nov 21, 2022
Pretty decent armored column with at least 2 leopards and a bunch of APCs looks like it got smoked :/

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1666727040911908864?s=46&t=DD0vzTZtKt-jEdi0QLOPZw

Klyith
Aug 3, 2007

GBS Pledge Week
Jesus christ, this is the craziest thing

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1666784520249438209

Artillery shell lands close enough for the people to get splashed, but since it landed in water it doesn't kill them. (Or maybe a dud?)

Pot Smoke Phoenix
Aug 15, 2007



Smoke 'em if you gottem!
Dinosaur Gum

TulliusCicero posted:

A series of slow moving coups and the end result of mass cronyism and warlords under Poopin

Turns out running your country like the Godfather with an intense love of all things hyper toxic masculine does not create a stable government/ society/ military

Arrest Russia under RICO laws

Bertha the Toaster
Jan 11, 2009

Klyith posted:

Jesus christ, this is the craziest thing

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1666784520249438209

Artillery shell lands close enough for the people to get splashed, but since it landed in water it doesn't kill them. (Or maybe a dud?)

You know what's mad about that? Someone got a photo of it landing. You can tell that there was actually a boat that was even closer to where that shell landed.



You know what's even madder? Someone got a photo of the photo being taken.

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Scrungus posted:

Pretty decent armored column with at least 2 leopards and a bunch of APCs looks like it got smoked :/

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1666727040911908864?s=46&t=DD0vzTZtKt-jEdi0QLOPZw

everything is a Leopard

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