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fatherboxx)
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Warbadger posted:The newer stuff is better on the protection side with better protection from shock and spall for the people inside, less chance of burning everyone alive if the fuel lights up, better escape options to improve the odds of escaping stricken vehicle, etc. BMP-1 are light skinned vehicles with barely enough protection to stop rifle round, BMP-2 offer slightly better armor protection can probably take a couple of 20mm rounds from the front, and BMP-3 are mobile powder kegs designed to kill their own troops.
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Jun 13, 2023 20:46
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Back Hack posted:BMP-1 are light skinned vehicles with barely enough protection to stop rifle round, BMP-2 offer slightly better armor protection can probably take a couple of 20mm rounds from the front, and BMP-3 are mobile powder kegs designed to kill their own troops. Now do BMD clown cars
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Jun 13, 2023 20:51
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Hannibal Rex posted:I'm mildly curious, how do less-than-APC modern vehicles like MRAPs compare to ancient Soviet stuff like BMP-1s, as far as protected mobility is concerned? Is it even possible to make a meaningful comparison? MRAP specifically, it's literally the name; a bunch of those vehicles were disabled seemingly by mines and while the MRAP will still lose mobility going over a mine, they're designed to keep the crew alive even if a pile of shells and bombs of arbitrary yield goes off underneath it. A lot of this is just geometry, the bottom of a Humvee, and a BMP-1 is flat. The blast and shrapnel from below have the minimum cross-section of armor to get through. Just by having angled armor underneath, more of the blast force is deflected, the shrapnel has a thicker cross section to go through and is more likely to ricochet away than dig in or go through.
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Jun 13, 2023 20:52
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Warbadger posted:The newer stuff is better on the protection side with better protection from shock and spall for the people inside, less chance of burning everyone alive if the fuel lights up, better escape options to improve the odds of escaping stricken vehicle, etc. Problem with MRAPs are that many models are top-heavy as gently caress. Also, just plain heavy as gently caress. A track can keep some agility with all that weight, MRAPs have better be on nice, solid, dry ground or you're gonna get stuck, roll over or left behind.
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Jun 13, 2023 20:56
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Nenonen posted:Now do BMD clown cars All BMDs are design to only come to a complete stop once a troop disembark early to gum up the wheel works, two if on an incline.
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Jun 13, 2023 21:00
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The flipside (no pun intended) of MRAP and other vehicles of that design is that they roll over much easier because the point of mass is so high up. This causes casualties too.
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Jun 13, 2023 21:03
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https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Fuer-die-Ukraine-ist-die-Situation-ausserordentlich-prekaer-article24185276.html Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner is what I would call cautiously pessimistic about what the counter-offensive has shown so far. Some parts of it, run through DeepL quote:What we see here is a D-Day without air power, and that is exactly the problem. Breaking through a defensive position requires a high level of synchronization and preparation. If Ukraine fails to establish air superiority in some way in its offensive, even if it is through mobile air defense systems so that the Russian air force cannot be used here, then it will be difficult. Ukraine has carried out one or two spectacular attacks, for example with long-range Storm Shadow missiles fired from Su-24M bombers into the depths behind the Russian defense lines. With these, they try to attack very specifically logistic nodes and command posts. But what is lacking is immediate close air support on the ground, taking the enemy under fire while the minesweeping teams break through.
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Jun 13, 2023 21:21
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Paladinus posted:Or Putin calls any vehicle with some armour a tank. when he talked about ukrainian losses in the same conversation he said 160 tanks and about double that in other armored vehicles so apparently not
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Jun 13, 2023 21:31
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Kraftwerk - I think you're over-valuing a relative handful of destroyed vehicles and extrapolating what we see in that one field carries over to all of the other axes. It might be typical, but I tend to think if it was then Russia would publish more material. Remember the Battle of Kyiv? Entire tank battalions were being wiped out, and we got video footage and after-action photographs, often within hours of the battle. Here, we see the same company-sized destruction--with no visible crew/passenger casualties--for an entire week. Of course Ukraine is taking casualties, but it doesn't look like they're losing entire battalions at a time in a given afternoon. The translated comments from the Austian colonel are interesting. I would submit that air power on D-Day didn't make much of a difference, so it's not a great analogy. The Russian use of helicopter-launched ATGMs at extreme ranges using drones as initial spotters is quite innovative. I also agree with the general criticism of lack of smoke. It's possible it's selection bias at work, but I've seen very, very little smoke used in over a year of combat footage. On the attack--whether day or night, but especially in day--you really, really want a lot of smoke.
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Jun 13, 2023 21:38
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Ynglaur posted:I would submit that air power on D-Day didn't make much of a difference, so it's not a great analogy. But air power would have made a lot of difference on D-Day--if the Allies let Germany use it. His emphasis seems to be on Ukraine's inability to shut down Russia's close air support more than Ukraine's inability to bring their own (which would be nice, certainly.)
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Jun 13, 2023 21:46
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Ynglaur posted:I would submit that air power on D-Day didn't make much of a difference, so it's not a great analogy. That's utterly false. It's only true if you decide to only count "aircraft directly killing combat vehicles in combat" and that's overlooking so much that it's ridiculous.
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Jun 13, 2023 21:50
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Randarkman posted:That's utterly false. It's only true if you decide to only count "aircraft directly killing combat vehicles in combat" and that's overlooking so much that it's ridiculous. Ya, Germany was literally unable to move armor or large columns of men in the daytime in France 1944. It doesn't matter that the average plane of 1944 wasn't as accurate or efficient as modern airframes when the allies could send a dozen after you without having to worry about enemy pilots on their rear end.
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Jun 13, 2023 21:55
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Air power on D-Day made a big difference, but mostly in the way that Panzers and the trucks that supported them had to move in night or under the cover of clouds to avoid interdiction. But it's in no way comparable to here, Russia has the upper hand in the air but they still have to use stand off weapons. Ukrainian held territory is no overflight country for those helicopters. OTOH if Ukrainian tanks come within range of Russian air launched anti-tank missiles then that's very bad for them, but WW2 air power was very hit and miss in that regard, usually miss.
Nenonen fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Jun 13, 2023 |
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Jun 13, 2023 21:56
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Yeah, I was posting from the perspective of Allied close air support the day of. Probably too narrow a perspective.
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Jun 13, 2023 22:02
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Ynglaur posted:Kraftwerk - I think you're over-valuing a relative handful of destroyed vehicles and extrapolating what we see in that one field carries over to all of the other axes. It might be typical, but I tend to think if it was then Russia would publish more material. Given the fact that these losses were triggered at the picket line level without hitting the main defenses, wouldn't it be better to stop the counteroffensive until Ukraine can figure out how to deal with their close air support? It might be that they've already done this given the relative lack of information/footage after that initial assault. It seems Russia is better able to use its airpower advantage on the defensive and Ukraine just doesn't have anything to answer it. I'm also wondering what can be done even if Ukraine suddenly got a fleet of 100 F-16s overnight. You still have an absolute bonkers amount of SAM systems lurking behind those lines that could shoot down anyone on an air superiority mission to keep the CAS out so they risk losing those too... I fully admit random scraps on the internet have poisoned my brain because I have nothing else to go on. Not really sure what the solution here is other than more long range missiles to strike things like airfields or ammo dumps.
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Jun 13, 2023 22:13
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Ynglaur posted:Yeah, I was posting from the perspective of Allied close air support the day of. Probably too narrow a perspective. Very very very too narrow a perspective. You're possibly correct if you're talking about actual close air support strikes in the vicinity of the actual beachheads on June 6th, but air power as a whole had a massive and fundamental impact on the success of the landings (which notably included three divisions that arrived in France entirely by air). Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Jun 13, 2023 |
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Jun 13, 2023 22:14
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Edit: wrong thread.
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Jun 13, 2023 22:19
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Kraftwerk posted:Given the fact that these losses were triggered at the picket line level without hitting the main defenses, wouldn't it be better to stop the counteroffensive until Ukraine can figure out how to deal with their close air support? It might be that they've already done this given the relative lack of information/footage after that initial assault. I think Ukrainian planners have done the best they can while incorporating the potential of Russian air power and their own anti-air capabilities before launching this offensive. Halting it entirely because one push got turned back is juts idiocy. We have to give it 1-2 weeks before we as outside observers can judge the succes of this offensive. Maybe Ukraine has suffered losses they've managed to hide and it has been an abysmal failure. Maybe they've already breached the defensive line. We can't know, and speculation is just going to upset yourself.
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Jun 13, 2023 22:36
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1668740504496766976 Found some of the tanks! (CW: the top video of the Russian POWs shows some bandaged wounds; no dialogue or interviews just panning over bound soldiers)
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Jun 13, 2023 23:11
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Kraftwerk posted:Given the fact that these losses were triggered at the picket line level without hitting the main defenses, wouldn't it be better to stop the counteroffensive until Ukraine can figure out how to deal with their close air support? It might be that they've already done this given the relative lack of information/footage after that initial assault. The whole point of advanced positions, mines, artillery, etc before some kind of notional main line of resistance is to attrit and funnel the attackers. I swear to God people got brain poisoned by GW1 and 2, that's not how wars are fought. It sucks that UAF lost some fancy combat engineering toys but I think any military in the world's planners are going to expect significant losses in that kind of asset going up against a peer enemy that is dug in. They hopefully did their jobs. Assets like that are designed to be used.
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Jun 13, 2023 23:27
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Nenonen posted:SMO has finally successfully denazified Ukrainian soil! Stuff gets pulled out of mud (or really lots of types of soil) in good condition all the time, doubly so after flooding or massive earth moving events. WW2 and WW1 wardead in decent condition are found in Europe somewhat frequently. That being said yeah someone with actual credentials should confirm it, but its not really super suprising. Source: Im an archaeologist.
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Jun 13, 2023 23:28
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I'm gonna be a little skeptical until some field archeologist or anyone at all has gone to look at the said skulls. It's absolutely possible that there would have been bodies buried in the reservoir area only found now, but my gut feel is that stuff that has been buried in mud for 80 years is going to look more like a blob of mud than anything recognizable, and it's also more likely buried deep in the said mud.
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Kraftwerk posted:Given the fact that these losses were triggered at the picket line level without hitting the main defenses, wouldn't it be better to stop the counteroffensive until Ukraine can figure out how to deal with their close air support? Sometimes the way you "deal with it" is to suck it up, write off the casualties as "acceptable losses" and push on towards an objective that is hopefully worth it and only stop once either the objective has been accomplished or the losses have ticked over from "acceptable" to "unacceptable." This isn't Fire Emblem where you can carefully dance around and pick off the enemy with almost no losses on your side. It's peer warfare and when you punch them they're going to punch back, even if you have fancy Western gear. The point is to try and see to it that you can punch a little bit harder and hold on a little bit longer than the other guy. Hell, even in Bakhmut where the Ukrainians were claiming an attrition rate in their favor they were still suffering significant casualties, and that was on the defensive. Why would you expect them to go without casualties when going on the offensive, something widely regarded as rather more difficult to execute?
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Jun 14, 2023 03:11
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Fuer-die-Ukraine-ist-die-Situation-ausserordentlich-prekaer-article24185276.html Reisner has been fairly spot on with his assessments this entire war. I have also noticed a lack of smoke screens / supportive artillery fire in most of the videos of Ukrainians armored being on the receiving end. It could be because of a lack of munitions, but I would wager they were just as likely caught off guard/ambushed in those scenarios. The lack of attached organic mid/long range AA is going to be a problem, and will likely force them to bring up some SAM systems closer to the front.
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Jun 14, 2023 05:51
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Not sure about his source, but the Belgian ex-colonel Roger Housen and a professor at the Royal Military School, Kris Quanten, gave an interview and claim the UA currently deployed 15% of their manpower in probing attacks, keeping 85% in reserve https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2023/0...FpLOLINf58g1Tk4
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Jun 14, 2023 09:54
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Weird, probably Kadyrov's idea of a joke post since a lot of Russian officials insist that Delimkhanov is alive https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668911534184038403?t=tAa5BjCFhP72SlsP8i5F9Q&s=19
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Jun 14, 2023 10:24
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fatherboxx posted:Weird, probably Kadyrov's idea of a joke post since a lot of Russian officials insist that Delimkhanov is alive him name is Adam Delimkhanov I lost my Delimkhanov ps. i'll find my Delimkhanov who took my Delimkhanov
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Jun 14, 2023 10:34
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:The whole point of advanced positions, mines, artillery, etc before some kind of notional main line of resistance is to attrit and funnel the attackers. I swear to God people got brain poisoned by GW1 and 2, that's not how wars are fought.
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Jun 14, 2023 12:15
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fatherboxx posted:Weird, probably Kadyrov's idea of a joke post since a lot of Russian officials insist that Delimkhanov is alive After some deliberation, he was pronounced decisively alive and well.
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Jun 14, 2023 12:20
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Paladinus posted:After some deliberation, he was pronounced decisively alive and well. Exactly this, https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668919520445059075
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Jun 14, 2023 12:26
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I saw this one pop up yesterday: https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-russia-doesnt-have-enough-weapons-and-drones-putin-admits/ I had no idea if politico is reliable on this or not.
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Jun 14, 2023 12:52
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https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1668941354565611520 Gerashchenko is generally a provocative poster, so take with a grain of salt. I really hope this is true about the chaos and subversion though. Edit- unconfirmed TG account, so big ol grain of salt ummel fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Jun 14, 2023 |
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Jun 14, 2023 12:59
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668922195777581057?t=D0EW8m1TSs6DIek59vrEEQ&s=19 Supposedly, there was a large concentration of Russian forces that got caught in a combined HIMARS and artillery attack and Delimkhanov might have been in that clusterfuck.
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Jun 14, 2023 13:17
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Young Freud posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668922195777581057?t=D0EW8m1TSs6DIek59vrEEQ&s=19 Is this the same missile strike that killed major general Goryachev? Kinda weird that nobody talked about that (or I missed it, sorry). Was this another example of Russian generals micro managing too much, or are the Ukrainians just able to take out targets like him from much further away?
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Jun 14, 2023 13:54
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1668941354565611520 It is not confirmed if that TG channel is actually run by Venevitin
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Jun 14, 2023 14:03
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Does Russia have secure communications yet? Or are they still kinda reliant on the Ukrainian cellphone network? That'd be one reason I can think of to explain why these high level generals keep being precariously close to the frontline.
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Jun 14, 2023 14:03
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fatherboxx posted:Weird, probably Kadyrov's idea of a joke post since a lot of Russian officials insist that Delimkhanov is alive This is a very strange way to fish for military intelligence. It almost reads like a Nigerian prince email scam, but for intel instead of cash.
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Jun 14, 2023 14:17
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mrfart posted:Is this the same missile strike that killed major general Goryachev? Don't believe it was the same missile. Right now I expect is a very busy time for Ukrainian artillery as they destroy and further complicate Russian command and logistics. Both because of the need to support the ongoing offensive operations and because Russian forces attempting to reposition, resupply, etc. will open up more opportunities than usual. See also the huge number of Russian artillery systems getting got lately.
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Jun 14, 2023 16:07
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nimby posted:Does Russia have secure communications yet? Or are they still kinda reliant on the Ukrainian cellphone network? That'd be one reason I can think of to explain why these high level generals keep being precariously close to the frontline. The RUSI report indiciated that Russian brigade headquarters and above seem to be use secure communications which were tied into the Ukrainian civilian telecommunications infrastructure. In other words, using civilian landlines doesn't preclude security. There's room for other inferences, though. Russian battalions and below continue to use unencrypted civilian radios, with the exception of special troops (likely VDV, Spetznaz, etc.). Also, apologies to the thread for my hasty post about D-Day and airpower. I'll chalk it up to the perils of fast mobile-posting. It was a Bad Post, and was rightly called out by others. Thanks to the goons who did!
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Jun 14, 2023 16:11
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Deltasquid posted:Not sure about his source, but the Belgian ex-colonel Roger Housen and a professor at the Royal Military School, Kris Quanten, gave an interview and claim the UA currently deployed 15% of their manpower in probing attacks, keeping 85% in reserve Housen has frequently appeared on Belgian national television (Dutch-speaking channel, at least). He's been weirdly wrong about the war quite often, even after the beginning where every analyst was sort of wrong.
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Jun 14, 2023 17:40
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 10:41 |
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Tomn posted:Sometimes the way you "deal with it" is to suck it up, write off the casualties as "acceptable losses" and push on towards an objective that is hopefully worth it and only stop once either the objective has been accomplished or the losses have ticked over from "acceptable" to "unacceptable." This isn't Fire Emblem where you can carefully dance around and pick off the enemy with almost no losses on your side. It's peer warfare and when you punch them they're going to punch back, even if you have fancy Western gear. The point is to try and see to it that you can punch a little bit harder and hold on a little bit longer than the other guy. Ryan McBeth posted a good take on this recently. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOTw1u-FpS4
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Jun 14, 2023 18:10
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